Index of Production, UK: July 2026

• Production output was estimated to have decreased (down 0.5%) during the three months to July 2026, compared with the three months to April 2026; this is the first fall in the three-month-on-three-month series since November 2025 (down 0.5%).

• Of the four main sectors in the three months to July 2026, negative contributions came from "water supply and sewerage" (down 4.0%), "electricity and gas" (down 1.5%) and "mining and quarrying" (down 2.6%); this was partially offset by a rise from "manufacturing" (up 0.5%).

• The decrease in “water supply and sewerage" (down 4.0%) in the three months to July 2026 was largely from sewerage (down 11.8%), the largest three-monthly reduction since July 2017; this continues a period of decline, with five consecutive monthly falls between February and June 2026.

• 7 of the 13 subsectors in “manufacturing” increased during the three months to July 2026, with the largest positive contribution coming from “computer, electronic and optical products” (up 3.9%); this was partially offset by negative contributions from the remaining subsectors, with the largest coming from "basic metals" (down 1.2%).

• Monthly production output was estimated to have increased by 0.2% in July 2026; this follows decreases in June 2026 (down 0.2%) and May 2026 (down 0.7%).

• There were increases in monthly production in July 2026 for "manufacturing" (up 0.9%) and "water supply and sewerage" (up 2.0%); these were partially offset by decreases in "mining and quarrying" (down 4.4%) and "electricity and gas" (down 1.5%).

• There was increased output among 8 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors in July 2026, with the largest positive contributions from "computer, electronic and optical products" (up 5.2%), "basic pharmaceutical products" (up 3.4%) and "basic metals" (up 2.8%).

All data related to the Index of Production (IoP) are available on our Related data page.

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources. It is calculated by taking turnover and removing the effect of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates.

Most of these data are collected as "turnover values" through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Direct volume series are also collected by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

The MBS is fully online. Business owners can log in from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time.

Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included for 64 production industries for small and medium-sized businesses from January 2018. More information is available in our VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue.

Response rates for July 2026 

MBS response rates were 74.3% for July 2026, based on forms returned. This accounted for 86.5% of total turnover coverage of the sample population. For further information, see our Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates dataset.

Quality and methodology

The data reported in IoP bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, such as sampling variability and non-sampling error. More information is available in Section 2 of our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys methodology.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Index of Production, UK quality and methodology information report.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in April 2014. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Revisions to Index of Production

This release gives data for July 2026 for the first time, with no other periods open for revision.

In line with the annual UK National Accounts (Blue Book), we will be open to revision across the entire time series in our next IoP release on 15 October 2026. An indicative monthly path will be included in the Quarterly national accounts release on 30 September 2026. 

Blue Book 2026 will incorporate more recent survey and administrative information, together with methodological improvements. Our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article covers the impact of these improvements on our industry level data. In addition, data for 2024 will be estimated for the first time using the annual supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. As usual, we will provide detailed revision analysis in our article, which will be published on 30 October 2026.

Changes to datasets

We would like to notify users that there will be some changes to the structure of our published datasets from September 2026.

As a result of improvements in the upcoming Blue Book 2026, we will merge the industries of mining of coal and lignite (Standard Industrial Classification SIC industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our Index of Production time series dataset.

We will also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4). This will still form part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products. Current prices will continue to be published in the quarterly Index of Production time series dataset.

These changes will be implemented in the Quarterly national accounts release on 30 September 2026 and the subsequent Index of Production release on 15 October 2026. Further information on these changes are published in our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of IoP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

IoP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and are regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our IoP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level. The seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total IoP output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for IoP in the period from January 1997 to July 2026.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology, published on 12 May 2026. 

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure time series in our updated Monthly GDP low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the sum of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the UK National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output. 

Review of release times for market-sensitive economic statistics

We are reviewing the release times for our market-sensitive economic statistics, such as Index of Production. This review will consider whether the current arrangements continue to best serve the public good, support user needs and align with the principles set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

We are running a consultation to gather evidence on the impact of different release times. The consultation asks how you use market-sensitive economic statistics, your views on potential release time options, and any other considerations. Please note that this consultation will be closing on Friday 30 October 2026.