GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2026

In the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6%, following a growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026 and a growth of 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication).

• Services output grew by 0.8%, after showing a growth of 0.6% in the three months to February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication).

• Production output grew by 0.2%; this follows a growth of 1.1% in the three months to February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication).

• Construction output grew by 0.4%, following five consecutive three-monthly falls, including the three months to February 2026 falling by 1.9% (revised up from a fall of 2.0% in our previous publication).

In the month to March 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from growths of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively, in our previous publication).

• Services and construction output both grew, by 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively - these growths were partially offset by a 0.2% fall in production.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. This follows an unrevised growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, and a growth of 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication).

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 0.8% in services output. Production output grew by 0.2% in the three months to March 2026, and construction output grew by 0.4%.

In this release, all industries are open for revision from January 2024. Our National Accounts Revisions Policy has been updated to ensure we reflect the dynamic nature of the UK economy. Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 7: Revisions to GDP.

As also mentioned in our quarterly GDP release, there have been small revisions to the months across 2024 and 2025, mainly reflecting updated source data and changes to seasonal adjustment factors. We have separately published a comprehensive note on how we assess for residual seasonality. In bringing this information together we have drawn on experiences both internationally (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis) and from academic expertise (University of Southampton). Today we have also published a blog from James Benford looking at how we adjust GDP to remove seasonal effects.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update the estimates with that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in March 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication), and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication). Services output grew by 0.3%, production fell by 0.2%, and construction grew by 1.5% in March 2026.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.4%, production showed no growth, and construction fell by 1.3%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.2% higher in March 2026 compared with the same month a year ago.

Other indicators also report economic strength in the month of March. For example, our 23 April 2026 Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators publication reported that: "Business and workforce indicators were more positive than in the previous month. A higher net proportion of firms reported month‑on‑month growth in turnover, led by the services sector, and the number of potential redundancies fell."

Services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025.

Services were the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to March 2026. This follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication), and 0.4% in the three months to January 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication).

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, after increasing by 0.6% in the three months to February 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to March 2026

There was a rise in output in 11 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to March 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 2.0%), driven by a growth of 3.1% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 1.6% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; more information on this subsector is available in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles section

• information and communication (up 1.7%), driven by growth in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (up 3.0%) and publishing activities (up 7.2%)

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.2%), driven by growth in advertising and market research (up 7.0%) and activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (up 2.3%)

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• administrative and support service activities (down 1.0%), driven by falls in rental and leasing activities (down 4.1%) and employment activities (down 4.1%)

• arts, entertainment and recreation (down 0.9%), because of a fall of 2.2% in sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

Services output grew by 0.3% on the month in March 2026. This follows an unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication). In March 2026, there was widespread growth across services output, with 11 of the 14 subsectors showing growth.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in March 2026 came from information and communication, which grew by 1.1%, following four consecutive months of growth. A growth of 6.0% in information service activities was the largest positive contributor to the subsector after falling by 7.5% in February 2026 (revised down from a fall of 6.5% in our previous publication). Computer programming, consultancy and related activities also contributed positively to the subsector (up 1.1%).

The second-largest positive contribution came from accommodation and food service activities (up 1.3%), where there was growth in both accommodation (up 2.9%) and food and beverage service activities (up 0.6%).

Human health and social work activities also contributed to the output growth, with a rise of 0.4% in March 2026. This was because of a growth of 0.5% in the human health activities industry.

These growths were partially offset by a fall of 0.2% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

The wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector grew by 2.0% in the three months to March 2026 and was the largest positive contributor at the subsector level to GDP growth. This was the largest three-monthly growth in this subsector since August 2021.

Despite the recent growth, this subsector remains below levels seen in 2022, and is only 0.3% higher in March 2026 than in the same month last year.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.6%)

• food and beverage service activities (up 1.1%)

• other personal service activities (up 2.0%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities (down 2.2%)

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 1.2%)

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in March 2026, following a fall of 0.1% in February 2026 (revised down from no growth in our previous publication).

The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.7%) and other personal service activities (up 2.5%).

The largest negative contribution came from travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which fell by 6.4% following a growth of 4.9% in February 2026 (revised up from a growth of 4.8% in our previous publication).

More information on consumer-facing services is available in our Consumer-facing services: March 2026 dataset.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.7% in March 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.5%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: March 2026 release.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025. This follows a growth of 1.1% in the three months to February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication).

Figure 7: Production output fell by 0.2% in the month of March 2026 and grew by 0.2% in the three months to March 2026, the fourth consecutive three-month on three-month growth

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for Index of Production, UK, January 2023 to March 2026

The growth in production output in the three months to March 2026 was mainly because of a growth of 0.8% in manufacturing, and a growth of 0.6% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

These growths were partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying, which was down by 4.5%, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, which fell by 0.5%, in the three months to March 2026.

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to March 2026, UK

Notes

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place.
2. Weights of these subsectors are available in the GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% on the month in March 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in February 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.5% in our previous publication) and a fall of 0.1% in January 2026.

This was driven by falls in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 4.3%), mining and quarrying (down 2.3%) and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 1.6%), in March 2026. These falls were partially offset by a rise of 1.2% in manufacturing.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period. The largest positive contributors to this growth over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (up 5.7%), driven by a 10.9% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; this is a base effect because of the comparison with the three months to December 2025, which includes October 2025 where the industry had not recovered fully from impacts of a cyber-incident in August 2025

• other manufacturing and repair (up 4.0%)

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 2.4%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (down 6.1%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 8.4%)

• manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing (down 1.5%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output grew by 1.2% in March 2026, with 10 of the 13 subsectors increasing. This follows a fall of 0.2% in February 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication) and a growth of 0.1% in January 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.2% in our previous publication).

The largest positive contribution to growth came from a rise of 2.0% in the manufacture of transport equipment, following a fall of 2.1% in February 2026. The next largest positive contributions came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 2.1%), and manufacture of basic metals and metal products (up 2.1%). These growths were partially offset by falls in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (down 2.9%), and other manufacturing repair (down 2.0%) subsectors.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.8% in March 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Production, UK: March 2026 release.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in the three months to March 2026 compared with the three months to December 2025.

Repair and maintenance grew by 3.4% over the period, whereas new work fell by 1.9%. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.1%. In new work, the largest negative contributor was private new housing, which fell by 2.6%.

Figure 10: Construction output grew by 0.4% in the three months to March 2026, compared with the three months to December 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to March 2026, Great Britain

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 1.5% in March 2026. This follows an increase of 0.5% in February 2026 (revised down from an increase of 1.0%), and an increase of 0.7% in January 2026 (revised up from an increase of 0.5%).

The increase in monthly output in March 2026 came from increases in both new work, and repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was private housing new work, which grew by 2.8%.

Figure 11: Both new work, and repair and maintenance increased in March 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to March 2026, Great Britain

Figure 12 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For March 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 75.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate in 2025 is 96.9%. 

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2026 release.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in March 2026, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been cited from various businesses in terms of March 2026 data. These comments were across a range of industries and were both positive and negative in terms of their impact.

Negative comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation, employment agencies and travel agencies. These stated the conflict in Iran had an impact in terms of reduced turnover in March 2026. Many of these comments also cited likely negative impacts for future months as well.

Some comments also cited activity being bought forward in anticipation of increases in costs because of conflict in Iran. These comments came from a selection of industries in manufacturing, car sales, wholesale, and rental and leasing activity. On a similar note, the Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2026 release also highlighted fuel sales rose sharply on the month, with retailers reporting that motorists stocked up on fuel as prices rose.

This release gives data for March 2026 for the first time. We have been open to revisions from January 2024.

There have been small revisions to months across 2024 and 2025, mainly reflecting updated source data and changes to seasonal adjustment factors. Now that we have information on March 2026 to help us assess previous months' seasonal factors, March 2024 and March 2025 have been revised down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

We have separately published a comprehensive note on how we assess for residual seasonality. In bringing this information together, we have drawn on experiences both internationally (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis) and from academic expertise (University of Southampton). Today we have also published a blog from James Benford looking at how we adjust GDP to remove seasonal effects.

Table 1 shows the monthly revisions back to January 2025, with the monthly and three-month revisions back to January 2024 available in our Revisions triangles dataset.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 23 April 2026 release provides early insights into UK economic activity for April 2026.

Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month: retail footfall was broadly unchanged compared with March 2026 but was lower than in April 2025. In the week ending 26 April 2026, average automotive fuel prices were 12% higher than in the week ending 29 March 2026, alongside a 10% fall in estimated quantity demanded per transaction. Our Retail sales release for April 2026 will be published on 22 May 2026.

Housing market activity showed modest growth, as seasonally adjusted Energy Performance Certificates lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales have increased compared with the previous month and also when compared with the same month a year ago.

Transport indicators were broadly stable, with the seasonally adjusted number of UK flights broadly unchanged on both the month and the year, while ship visits to major UK ports were broadly unchanged on the month, although lower than a year earlier. In contrast, seasonally adjusted new car and light commercial vehicle registrations fell by 9% compared with the relatively high number of registrations in March 2026, but were 21% higher than in the same month a year earlier.

Initial results from our Business Insights and Conditions Survey show that over a quarter (27%) of trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in April 2026 when compared with the previous month, up 4 percentage points from March 2026 and broadly in line with movements seen around this time in previous years; 13% of trading businesses reported that their turnover increased and 52% said it stayed the same.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly GDP low level industry dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: March 2026

• Index of Production, UK: March 2026

• Construction output in Great Britain: March 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, construction or manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to March 2026.

This topic is explored further in our article on assessing residual seasonality, published on 12 May 2026.

In this publication we have, for the first time, published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the sum of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the UK National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.