GDP monthly estimate, UK: October 2025

In the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1%, following growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025 and 0.2% in the three months to August 2025.

• Services output experienced no growth, compared with growth of 0.2% in the three months to September 2025, continuing the recent trend of slowing growth in the service sector.

• Production output fell by 0.5%, largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers in this period; this follows a fall of 0.5% in the three months to September 2025.

• Construction output fell by 0.3%, compared with a growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025.

In the month to October 2025:

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%, following a fall of 0.1% in September 2025 and no growth in August 2025.

• Services fell by 0.3% and construction fell by 0.6%, whereas production grew by 1.1%, in October 2025.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025. This follows a growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025 and 0.2% in the three months to August 2025. The 0.1% fall in the three months to October 2025 was the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023.

There were falls in two of the three main sectors in the three months to October 2025, with a fall of 0.5% in the production sector. This was largely because of a 17.7% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which made the largest contribution to the decrease in GDP during this period. Construction output also fell, by 0.3%, while services output showed no growth over this period. This continues the recent trend of slowing growth in the service sector since March 2025.

In this release, no periods are open for revision.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2025, following a fall in 0.1% in September 2025. Services and construction both fell in October 2025, by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively, while production increased by 1.1% in October 2025.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.5% and construction grew by 1.1%, whereas production fell by 1.3%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in October 2025, compared with October 2024.

We are continuing to lead with the three-month on three-month growth rates in this bulletin. For more information on this, please see our GDP: Getting the best insight each month blog.

Services output showed no growth in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025, after growing by 0.2% in the three months to September 2025.

Figure 3: Services showed no growth in the three months to October 2025, after growth in every three-month period from January 2024 to September 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, January 2023 to October 2025, UK

There was a fall in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to October 2025. The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (down 1.6%), caused by falls in scientific research and development (down 6.2%) and architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (down 3.0%)

• other service activities (down 2.6%), caused by other personal service activities (down 4.6%)

• information and communication (down 0.4%)

The largest positive contributions at the subsector level came from:

• real estate activities (up 0.4%) caused by growth in imputed rent (up 0.3%) and real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (up 4.9%)

• administrative and support service activities (up 0.9%), caused by a rise in rental and leasing activities (up 6.0%)

• public administration and defence; compulsory social security (up 0.8%)

Services output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in October 2025. This follows a growth of 0.2% in September 2025. In October 2025, 8 of the 14 subsectors showed a fall.

The largest negative contribution to services sector output in October 2025 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 1.4%. This was caused by falls of 4.3% in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, following growth of 3.4% September 2025. The monthly fall in this subsector was also caused by a 1.1% decrease in retail trade in October, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, following four consecutive monthly growths in this industry.

Information and communication also contributed negatively to services sector output in October 2025, falling by 1.2%. This fall was mainly caused by computer programming, consultancy and related activities (down 3.6%). Figure 5 shows the overall trend of this industry has been positive in recent years, despite the fall in the industry this month.

Output also decreased in professional, scientific and technical activities (down 0.8%) in October 2025.

The largest positive contribution at the subsector level came from human health and social work activities, which grew by 0.6% in October 2025. This growth was caused by a growth of 0.8% in human health activities, with both market and non-market output increasing.

Output also grew in real estate activities (up 0.2%) and other service activities (up 2.1%) in October 2025.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output increased by 0.2% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.0%)

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.8%)

• food and beverage service activities (up 0.7%)

The largest partially offsetting decreases came from other personal service activities (down 4.6%), and accommodation (down 2.4%).

Output in consumer-facing services saw a fall of 0.1% in October 2025, following a growth of 0.4% in September 2025. The largest negative contributions at the industry level came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 4.3%) and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.1%). The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (up 1.0%) and other personal service activities (up 3.3%).

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.3% in October 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: October 2025 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025. This follows a fall of 0.5% in the three months to September 2025.

Figure 7: Production output fell by 0.5% in the three months to October 2025 – its sixth consecutive three-monthly fall

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, January 2023 to October 2025, UK

The fall in the three months to October 2025 was largely caused by a fall of 0.7% in manufacturing. Mining and quarrying also fell in the three months to October 2025, with a fall of 1.9%. Whereas water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities grew by 1.2%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply grew by 0.3% in the three months to October 2025.

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, January 2023 to October 2025, UK

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place. 

2. Weights of these subsectors are available in the GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in October 2025, following a fall of 2.0% in September 2025. Output in all production subsectors increased in October 2025. This was caused by growths in manufacturing output (0.5%), mining and quarrying (4.3%), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.1%). Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities also grew in October 2025, by 1.5%.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output fell by 0.7% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025, with 6 of the 13 subsectors decreasing over this period. The largest negative contributors to this fall over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 8.7%); this was largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (down 17.7%). For more information on this industry's movements, see the next subsection Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry

• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 2.4%)

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 1.0%)

These falls were partially offset by growth elsewhere, with the largest positive contributions coming from:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.0%)

• other manufacturing and repair (up 2.5%)

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 2.0%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.5% in October 2025, with output in 6 of the 13 subsectors growing in October 2025. This follows a 1.7% fall in September 2025 and a 0.6% growth in August 2025.

The largest positive contribution came from a growth of 3.6% in the manufacture of transport equipment. This was mainly caused by a 9.5% increase in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, following a fall of 28.6% in September 2025.

There was also an increase in output in October 2025 for the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 4.4%) and other manufacturing and repair (up 2.8%).

These growths were partially offset by a 3.5% fall in manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products in October 2025.

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers grew by 9.5% in October 2025, following the 28.6% fall in September 2025. This shows that there was a small recovery in the industry, though the industry is still 21.8% below the levels we saw in August 2025.

The Chief Executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that "the impact of the earlier cyber-attack continued to be felt" in their UK car and commercial vehicle manufacturing October 2025 publication.

The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry fell by 17.7% in the three months to October 2025. This contributed negative 1.18 percentage points to the fall in manufacturing and negative 0.10 percentage points to the fall in gross domestic product (GDP) over this period.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.1% in October 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received.

Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.8%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: October 2025 release.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.3% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025. Repair and maintenance decreased by 1.0%, while new work grew by 0.1% over the period. Within repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.3%. In new work, the largest positive contributor came from public other new work, which grew by 5.7%.

Figure 11: Construction output fell by 0.3% in the three months to October 2025, compared with the three months to July 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to October 2025, Great Britain

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in October 2025. This follows an increase of 0.2% in September 2025.

The decrease in monthly output in October 2025 came from decreases in both new work and repair and maintenance, which decreased by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was private new housing, which fell by 2.4%.

Figure 12: Repair and maintenance decreased while new work increased in the three months to October 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to October 2025, Great Britain

Figure 13 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. The survey turnover response rate for construction was 82.0% for October 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: October 2025 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in October 2025, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The cyber incident that paused production at a major car manufacturer not only affected the manufacturing of motor vehicles but was also cited as a reason for reduced turnover in other areas of the economy. Within manufacturing, this affected the manufacturing of textiles, rubber and plastic, and basic metals and fabricated products. Within services, this affected the retail trade of motor vehicles, wholesale, computer programming, and employment agencies.

Businesses across the production, construction and services sectors reported that they, or their customers, were waiting for the outcome of the Autumn Budget 2025 announcement on 26 November 2025. These comments came from a range of industries, but were mainly from manufacturers, construction companies, wholesalers, computer programmers, real estate firms, and employment agencies.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: October 2025

• Index of Production, UK: October 2025

• Construction output in Great Britain: October 2025

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

A full breakdown of the data used in this bulletin is provided in our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio (IC ratio). This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the IC ratios for each section are shown in Table 1.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Non-market human health activities data source update

We have used improved estimates of acute care output in this release, based on unpublished data provided by NHS England within the human health activities industry.

This vintage of data comprehensively accounts for missing data and cost-weights activity that is consistent with our annual benchmark. This was not possible with the published Hospital Episode Statistics Monthly Activity Reporting (HES MAR) data previously used.

The October 2025 estimates for the non-market human health activities output published in this bulletin will incorporate these new data source changes for October 2025 only. The rest of these revisions will be captured in our upcoming GDP quarterly national accounts: July to September 2025 bulletin, publishing on 22 December 2025, which has an open period of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. The revisions will then be taken on (back to January 2024) in our GDP monthly estimate: November 2025 bulletin, publishing on 15 January 2026.

Strengths and limitations

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Statistical designation

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Restarting of Producer prices publications

We restarted publication of our monthly business prices publications on 22 October 2025. Business prices data with corrected chain-linking methods and updated historical weights have been used in our monthly GDP datasets for Producer Price Indices (PPI), Import Price Indices (IPI), Export Price Indices (EPI), and Service Producer Price Indices (SPPI) in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

These updates to business prices data will be incorporated in GDP estimates in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, becoming fully integrated for the entire time series in our Blue Book 2026 publication.

Further information on the chain-linking error and the impact of methodological changes in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Impact of correction to chain-linking methodology used in Producer Price Indices and Services Producer Price Indices: October 2025 article.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article updated on 30 September 2025.