GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2026

In the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7%, following a growth of 0.8% in the three months to April 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.7% in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.6% in the three months to March 2026.

• Services output grew by 0.7%, after growing by 0.9% in the three months to April 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.8% in our previous publication).

• Production output grew by 0.1% following a growth of 0.1% in the three months to April 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication).

• Construction output grew by 1.6%; this follows a growth of 1.3% in the three months to April 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.6% in our previous publication).

In the month to May 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.1%, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in April 2026 and an unrevised growth of 0.3% in March 2026.

• The growth in May was because of a rise of 0.3% in services and was partially offset by falls of 0.5% in production, and 0.8% in construction.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026. This is the sixth consecutive three-month on three-month growth and follows a growth of 0.8% in the three months to April (revised up from a growth of 0.7% in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.6% (unrevised from our previous publication) in the three months to March 2026.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from the services sector, which grew by 0.7% in the three months to May 2026. Construction grew by 1.6% and production grew by 0.1% over the same period.

In this release, April 2026 was open for revision, and January 2024 to March 2026 have been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 30 June 2026. Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 8: Revisions to GDP.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in May 2026, following a 0.1% contraction in April 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication). This was the first fall since October 2025, which also fell by 0.1% (revised down from no growth in our previous publication). Services output grew by 0.3%, while production fell by 0.5%, and construction fell by 0.8%.

Looking long term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period:

• services grew by 1.5%
• production grew by 0.3%
• construction fell by 1.4%

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.3% higher in May 2026.

Services output grew 0.7% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026. It was the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to May 2026. This follows a growth of 0.9% in the three months to April 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.8% in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.8% in the three months to March 2026.

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.7% in the three months to May 2026, following a growth of 0.9% in the three months to April 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to May 2026

There was a rise in output in 12 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to May 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• information and communication (up 2.5%), mainly driven by a growth of 3.7% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities and 1.9% in telecommunications

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.8%), driven by growths in advertising and market research (up 6.7%), accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy (up 4.2%), and activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (up 3.1%)

• human health and social work activities (up 0.7%), driven by a growth of 1.1% in non-market human health activities

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level came from:

• administrative and support service activities (down 1.1%), which had widespread falls and was driven by a fall of 3.2% in services to buildings and landscape activities

On the month, services output grew by 0.3% in May 2026. This follows a fall of 0.1% in April 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.3% in March 2026. In May 2026, 7 of the 14 subsectors grew.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in May 2026 came from professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 1.8%. This was driven by a growth of 5.1% in scientific research and development, reaching its highest peak since June 2025 (Figure 5). This was primarily because of strength in research and development on medical sciences. This was the largest positive contribution from a single industry to both services output and real GDP growth, contributing positive 0.07 percentage points to services output, and positive 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth. Advertising and market research was another main driver to growth in this subsector, up 3.2%, a sixth consecutive monthly growth.

The second largest positive contribution came from administrative and support service activities (up 0.9%). This was driven by a growth of 3.0% in employment activities, following a fall of 3.0% in April 2026 (revised down from a fall of 2.6% in our previous publication). Despite the growth in May 2026, this industry has experienced long-term decline.

Human health and social work activities also contributed positively, with a rise of 0.4% in May 2026. This was because of a growth of 1.0% in non-market human health activities.

The largest negative contribution came from information and communication, which contracted by 0.5% in May 2026, following six consecutive months of growth. This was driven by falls in motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (down 3.3%) and telecommunications (down 1.2%).

Education also contributed negatively to services output in May 2026 (down 0.2%). This was because of a fall of 0.5% in non-market education.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• accommodation (up 4.7%)
• other personal service activities (up 2.7%)
• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.3%)
• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.4%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage service activities (down 0.9%)
• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 2.8%).

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in May 2026, following a fall of 0.4% in April 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication). The largest positive contribution at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.2%); for more information see our Retail sales, Great Britain: May 2026 bulletin. Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (Figure 7) was the second-largest positive contributor, with a growth of 6.5%, following a fall of 6.4% in April 2026 (revised up from a fall of 9.1% in our previous publication). The largest negative contribution came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 1.4%.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services dataset.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 88.2% in May 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.8%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: May 2026 bulletin.

In the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026, the production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1%, following a growth of 0.1% in April 2026 (revised up from a 0.1% fall in our previous publication).

Figure 8: Production output fell by 0.5% in May 2026 but grew by 0.1% in the three months to May 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2023 to May 2026

The 0.1% growth in production in the three months to May 2026 was solely because of a 1.6% increase in manufacturing. This was mostly offset by falls of:

• 4.3% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
• 1.9% in water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities
• 1.5% in mining and quarrying

Figure 9: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to May 2026, UK

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place.
2. Weights of these sub-sectors are available in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output fell by 0.5% in May 2026, following growth of 0.2% in April 2026 (revised up from no growth in our previous publication), and no growth in March 2026 (revised up from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication). This was driven by falls in:

• mining and quarrying (down 4.6%)
• water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 2.4%)
• electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 0.1%)

The only subsector to see a monthly increase was manufacturing, which grew by 0.1%.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 1.6% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period. The largest positive contributors were:

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 5.4%)
• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (up 2.7%)
• manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (up 1.7%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest contributions to the offset coming from:

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (down 1.5%)
• other manufacturing and repair (down 1.0%)
• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 2.2%)

Figure 10 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

In the month of May 2026, manufacturing output grew by 0.1%, with 7 of the 13 subsectors increasing. This follows growth of 0.5% in April 2026 (revised up from 0.4% in our previous publication), and a 1.4% increase in March 2026 (revised up from 1.2% in our previous publication).

The largest positive contribution came from a 5.3% rise in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., following a growth of 0.7% in April 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.0% in our previous publication). The next largest positive contributions came from the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (up 2.1%) and basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 0.6%). These growths were partially offset by falls in:

• the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.7%)
• other manufacturing and repair (down 1.5%)
• the manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 1.6%)

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 90.3% in May 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.8%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: May 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in the three months to May 2026 compared with the three months to February 2026. Both repair and maintenance and new work grew over the period, increasing by 2.1% and 1.1%, respectively. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 3.0%. In new work, the largest positive contribution came from private commercial new work, which grew by 4.0%.

Figure 11: Construction output grew by 1.6% in the three months to May 2026, compared with the three months to February 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2023 to May 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% in May 2026. This follows a decrease of 0.1% (revised from an increase of 0.1%) in April 2026, and an increase of 1.4% in March 2026.

The decrease in monthly output in May 2026 came solely from a decrease in repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.1%. New work grew by 0.2%. At the sector level, the main contribution to the monthly decrease was private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 5.0%.

Figure 12: Repair and maintenance decreased while new work increased in May 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2023 to May 2026

Figure 13 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For May 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 83.3%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2025 is 97.1%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: May 2026 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in May 2026, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been cited by various businesses in terms of May 2026 data. These comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, land transport services, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation, travel agencies and creative arts and entertainment. These mainly stated the conflict in Iran had an impact in terms of reduced output in May 2026.

A common theme of comments received by the monthly business survey was disruption in global supply chains because of the conflict in Iran. This is also supported by our recent Business insights and impact on the economy: 18 June 2026 bulletin. Of trading businesses, 5% reported global supply chain disruption in May 2026 and 50% of these cited the Middle East as the cause.

Our Economic activity and social change real-time indicators, UK: 9 July 2026 dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for June 2026.

Indicators of consumer demand weakened during the month of June 2026. Retail footfall decreased in June compared with May 2026 as heatwave conditions resulted in public transport disruptions and advice not to travel. Annual growth in the estimated quantity demanded per transaction of automotive fuel decreased further in June 2026 and was notably lower than a year earlier. This was despite automotive fuel prices starting to fall in response to significantly lower global oil prices. Our retail sales release for June 2026 will be published on 24 July 2026.

The labour market showed some tentative signs of improvement. The number of potential redundancies, measured by HR1 forms submitted to the Insolvency Service, decreased from May’s exceptionally high level. The number of potential redundancies in June 2026 was also slightly lower than in the same month a year ago.

Transport indicators were mixed in June, with the seasonally adjusted number of UK flights falling slightly on the month but remaining substantially higher than in the same month a year earlier. Ship visits to major UK ports increased compared with the previous month but decreased compared with the same month a year earlier, continuing their recent downward trend. In contrast, seasonally adjusted new car and light commercial vehicle registrations increased on both the month and the year, supported by continued growth in registrations of electric vehicles.

This release gives data for May 2026 for the first time. In this release, April 2026 is open for revision and January 2024 to March 2026 have been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2026 bulletin, published on 30 June 2026.

Table 1 shows the monthly revisions back to January 2026, with the monthly and three-month revisions back to January 2024 available in our Revision triangles dataset.

The upwards revision to services in April 2026 was largely because of upwards revisions in the information and communication sector. This is because of updated survey data.

The upwards revision to production was largely because of an upwards revision in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector. This is because of updated source data.

The downwards revision to construction in April 2026 is because of late and updated monthly survey data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP low level industry data dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: May 2026
• Index of Production, UK: May 2026
• Construction output in Great Britain: May 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates
• Index of Production response rates
• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Rail transport
• Accommodation
• Food and beverage service activities
• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• Veterinary activities
• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• Gambling and betting services
• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• Activities of membership organisations
• Other personal service activities
• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to May 2026.

We explore this topic further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology.

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated Monthly GDP low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.