GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2025

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025.

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024; this is mainly because of widespread growth in the services sector in this period.

• Monthly services output rose by 0.4% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.3% in February 2025, and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in the month; services also grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025.

• Production output fell by 0.7% in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous publication), but grew by 1.1% in the three months to March 2025.

• Construction output grew by 0.5% in March 2025, following growth of 0.2% in February 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.4% in our previous publication), but showed no growth in the three months to March 2025.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025 and no growth in January 2025 (also unrevised from our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. This is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2025 release. A rise of 0.7% in services sector output was the main contributor to the increase in GDP during this three-month period. A 1.1% increase in the production sector also contributed positively, while the construction sector showed no growth.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

In this release, January 2025 and February 2025 are open for revision.

Of the three main sectors, services output was the largest contributor to the monthly GDP growth in March 2025, increasing by 0.4%. Construction output also increased, by 0.5%. These increases were partially offset by a 0.7% decrease in production output in March 2025.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to March 2024. Over this period, services grew by 1.5%, while production fell by 0.2% and construction output rose by 0.9%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in March 2025 than it was in the same month a year ago.

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in March 2025, having also increased by 0.3% in February 2025 (unrevised from our previous publication). There was growth in 8 of the 14 subsectors in March 2025.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. There was an increase in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors during this period, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from administrative and support service activities (up 3.3%), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.6%), and information and communication (up 1.9%). Figure 3 shows the monthly and three-month contributions at the subsector level for services in March 2025.

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in March 2025 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a growth of 0.8% in February 2025. All three industries in this subsector experienced growth in March 2025, with the largest positive contribution coming from a 1.5% growth in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry.

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in March 2025 came from information and communication, where output rose by 1.2% in the month, following growth of 2.3% in February 2025. This was mainly driven by the computer programming, consultancy and related activities subsector (up 3.7%) and the motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities industry (up 5.3%).

The largest negative contribution in March 2025 came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.5%, after growth of 1.2% in February 2025. The fall was driven by a 2.0% decline in the office administrative, office support and other business support activities industry and a 6.6% fall in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities industry.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.6% in March 2025, following a growth of 0.7% in February 2025. The largest contributions at the industry level came from a 5.8% growth in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities and a 1.3% rise in food and beverage service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from a 6.6% decline in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.9% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024. The largest positive contributions in this period came from a growth of 1.4% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 3.6% in other personal service activities. The largest partially offsetting fall came from accommodation, which fell by 2.2% in this three-month period.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services: March 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 83.8% in March 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.3%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: March 2025 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% on the month in March 2025, following growth of 1.7% in February 2025 (revised up from 1.5% growth in our previous bulletin). The fall in March 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output decreasing by 0.8% during the month. Mining and quarrying fell by 1.2%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output declined by 0.7%. There was one partially offsetting growth of 0.8% at the sector level, in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

In the three months to March 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1%. This period saw growths in three of the four subsectors: manufacturing (up 0.8%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 4.0%); and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 1.8%). Mining and quarrying fell by 0.5% in the three months to March 2025.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% in March 2025, following a rise of 2.4% in February 2025. Manufacturing was the largest contributor to the overall decrease in production output in the month with 7 of the 13 subsectors declining.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 8.4% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products, following growth of 9.8% in February 2025. There were also declines in output for the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 5.8% in March 2025 after growth of 4.4% in February 2025) and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 5.1%). The largest positive contribution to manufacturing output in March 2025 came from the manufacture of transport equipment which grew by 5.0%.

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.8% in the three months to March 2025, compared with the three months to December 2024, with 10 of the 13 subsectors growing over this period. The largest contributors to growth were the manufacture of transport equipment (up 2.7%) and the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 3.8%). These were partially offset by a fall in the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 3.0%).

 Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.4% in March 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.6%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in our monthly GDP release can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: March 2025 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in March 2025, which follows an increase of 0.2% in February 2025 (revised down from 0.4% in our previous publication), and an unrevised decrease of 0.3% in January 2025. The rise in monthly output in March 2025 came from both new work and repair and maintenance which grew by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Construction output is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to March 2025 compared with the three months to December 2024. New work increased by 0.9% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance fell by 1.2%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from public other new work, which grew by 11.9%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance which fell by 1.9%.

Five out of the nine sectors saw increases in March 2025. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly increase were private new housing and infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.

Figure 8 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For March 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 72.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.4%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2024 is 95.1%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2025 bulletin.

Respondents to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Monthly Business Survey anecdotally reported some common factors as having played a part in performance across different industries in March 2025. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact of these factors.

Comments received suggested the change in Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds for home buyers in England and Northern Ireland may have affected activity in March. Most notably, conveyancing solicitors and real estate agencies saw growth on the month as many cited purchases being completed ahead of the changes on 1 April 2025.

March is also a new car registration plate month. As stated in the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) news release: "this year's 'new plate' month represents the best March performance since 2019". The effects of this can be seen in the sale of motor vehicles but is also cited in the Business Survey as one of the main reasons for car and vehicle rental and leasing activity increasing.

The high level of gold prices and precious metals were also cited as a factor in increased activity during March 2025. This was evident across the manufacture of jewellery, materials recovery and parts of the wholesale sector.

This release gives revisions for January 2025 and February 2025, taking on late and updated source data since our last release on 11 April 2025.

The upward revisions to production growth were mainly because of updated source data in both the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry, and the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry in January 2025, as well as late and updated survey returns for manufacturing in February 2025.

The downward revision to construction was because of late and revised survey data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period. However, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: March 2025 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: March 2025 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2025 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

The GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services.

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced, and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply and use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption (IC) ratio. This is the IC of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022, and the IC ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

The annual 2023 data will be included for the first time in our GDP Quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin, publishing on 30 September 2025.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications

During work to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate the PPI and SPPI indices. For this reason, producer prices publications are currently on pause.

Our investigations so far have concluded the problem affects the period from December 2008 onwards. However, investigations suggest that the main impact on annual producer price inflation rates was in 2022 and 2023, because of the large movements in relative prices during that period.

As these detailed price data are used within our GDP calculations, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries, with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP and will continue to use the current PPI estimates in these publications until updated data are available.

Seasonal adjustment

GDP monthly estimates are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 6 of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article, published on 9 May 2025.