GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2026

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, following growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026.
• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was mainly caused by an increase of 0.5% in the services sector; the construction sector increased by 0.3% and production output showed no growth.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026 and is up 1.0% compared with the same quarter a year ago.
• There are no revisions to previously published GDP data in this quarterly release, in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.
• We will release data revisions from 1997 to 2024 in our upcoming Blue Book 2026: GDP impacts and expenditure components article, publishing on 20 August 2026; any additional updates to data from 2025 onwards will be released in our upcoming Quarterly national accounts bulletin, publishing on 30 September 2026.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, following growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026 (Figure 1). GDP is estimated to be 1.2% higher in Quarter 2 2026, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Our monthly GDP figures published today also show that GDP grew by 0.3% in June 2026, after showing no growth in May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in April 2026.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that since Quarter 1 2000 there is a mean revision of positive 0.08 percentage points between the first estimate and the final estimate, which is published three years later. The mean absolute revision between the first and final estimates is 0.27 percentage points.

We make revisions when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please see our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article and our Managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy in producing our best estimates of GDP blog.

The GDP growth vintages from 2025 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026, and is up 1.0% compared with the same quarter a year ago. For more information, see Section 6: Real GDP per head.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Quarter 2 2026 and is now 4.1% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 2.9% in Quarter 2 2026, mainly caused by household expenditure, exports, and gross capital formation (Figure 2).

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, following an increase of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026. Overall, there were increases in 15 out of 20 subsectors of GDP in the latest quarter.

In Quarter 2 2026, the services sector increased by 0.5%, while the construction sector increased by 0.3% and the production sector showed no growth.

Our monthly GDP figures published today also show that GDP grew by 0.3% in June 2026, after showing no growth in May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in April 2026.

Services

Services output increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026, following an increase of 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026. Services output is estimated to be 1.5% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

In Quarter 2 2026, non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by 0.5%, while consumer-facing services grew by 0.3%.

Figure 3 shows that 8 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth in Quarter 2 2026. The largest positive contributors to growth were information and communication, and professional, scientific and technical activities.

In Quarter 2 2026, information and communication was up 2.7%, mainly driven by a growth of 3.7% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities. Professional, scientific and technical activities was up 1.7%, driven by growths in advertising and market research (up 4.3%), scientific research and development (up 3.9%), and legal activities (up 2.5%).

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 2 2026 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 0.9%, mainly because of falls of 2.8% in office administrative, office support, and other business support activities, as well as falls of 7.9% in security and investigation activities.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 2 2026, following a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be 0.3% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

Within production, there were increases of 1.0% and 0.2% in manufacturing and mining and quarrying, respectively. These were offset by falls in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply, which fell by 2.3%, and in water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities, which fell by 3.7% in Quarter 2 2026.

Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 7 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter (Figure 4). The largest positive contribution to the growth was the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 4.2%).

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 2 2026, but remains 2.0% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. Both new work and repair and maintenance grew over the period, increasing by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Within new work, the largest positive contribution came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 1.9%. In repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from public housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.5%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2026 bulletin.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, mainly because of increases in gross fixed capital formation and household consumption (Figure 5).

Household final consumption expenditure

There was a 0.3% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 2 2026, and it is now estimated to be up by 1.0% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Within household consumption in the latest quarter, growth was caused by increases in nearly all main categories, with the largest contributions coming from recreation and culture, and household goods and services.

Net tourism made a negative contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts article. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.4% in the latest quarter.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure fell by 0.3% in Quarter 2 2026, and is now estimated to be 1.4% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

The fall in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects declines in health and education. The decline in education may be because of the closure of some schools during the heatwave conditions seen across much of the UK in June.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is now estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2026, and to be 2.7% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the growth are increases in information and communication technology, and other machinery and equipment, especially hardware investment.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 1.7% in the latest quarter and is now estimated to be 0.8% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories fell by £1,382 million in Quarter 2 2026 (Table 2), mainly because of a reduction in manufacturing inventories.

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 2.1% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 1.0% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2026 (Figure 6).

Export volumes increased by 0.5% in the latest quarter and are now 2.4% higher than they were in the same quarter a year ago.

The increase in the latest quarter was mainly caused by a 0.1% growth in goods exports, and a 0.8% increase in services exports. Within goods exports, the growth was mainly caused by increases in chemicals. The growth in services exports was mainly because of other business service activities and transport.

Import volumes are estimated to have increased by 0.5% in the latest quarter and are now 2.9% higher than they were in the same quarter a year ago. Goods imports increased by 0.6%, mainly because of increases in fuels. Services imports increased by 0.3%, mainly because of transportation and intellectual property.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 and is up 4.1% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP in the latest quarter was mainly driven by an increase in gross operating surplus (Figure 7).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 0.2% in the latest quarter and is up 5.3% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in Quarter 2 2026 was caused by an increase of 0.7% in wages and salaries, which offset a 1.7% fall in employers' social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics.

However, we continue to use additional information, including from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information UK bulletin. This helps us improve both the accuracy of the income measure of GDP and its coherence with related statistics, such as those in the Sector Accounts.

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have increased by 0.2% in the latest quarter and is 3.8% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago. Growth in the latest quarter was caused by an increase in household gross operating surplus.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have fallen by 1.8% in Quarter 2 2026 and are now 4.0% higher than they were in the same quarter a year ago.

There was a 0.1% fall in taxes and a 15.6% increase in subsidies, which contribute negatively to GDP. The 15.6% increase in subsidies was mainly because of other economic and service subsidies (energy) and housing equity injection.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, increased by 1.9% in Quarter 2 2026 (Table 3). This is mainly because of an increase in private non-financial corporations (PNFC).

Estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations remains subject to uncertainty. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2026 and is up 1.0% compared with the same quarter a year ago. There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures from 2021 onwards, reflecting revisions to population estimates.

Population figures for up to mid-2021 are based on our mid-year UK population estimates, published on 26 September 2025. Population figures for mid-2021 to mid-2025 are based on:

• Population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2025, published on 29 July 2026

• Population estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2025 for Scotland, published on 14 July 2026

• Population estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2024 for Northern Ireland, published on 11 September 2025

• National population projections: 2024-based, published on 28 April 2026

Population figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026 are based on an interpolation between mid-year estimates (projection for Northern Ireland) and our 2024-based national population projections, published on 28 April 2026, using the principal variant. Figures for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026 are based on our 2024-based national population projections.

There are no revisions to previously published gross domestic product (GDP) data in this quarterly release, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. Data revisions from 1997 to 2024 will be published in our upcoming Blue Book 2026: GDP impacts and expenditure components article, on 20 August 2026. Any additional updates to data from 2025 onwards will be published in our upcoming Quarterly national accounts bulletin, publishing on 30 September 2026.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages to 1 decimal place are shown in Table 4.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article.

As a standard, we prefer the alignment adjustment to be out of tolerance, rather than to over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to our GDP quarterly dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU.

We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021. Therefore, we advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will facilitate more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project. Travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation.

Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP):

• the output approach

• the expenditure approach

• the income approach

The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters, where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2026 bulletin showed that there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle for 2025, with real growth estimated in a range of 1.2% to 1.5%. There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards, until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed ahead in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. Therefore, we rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality-adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, such as sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP QMI.

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Based on our combined assessment from the suite of statistical tests, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate outputs from Quarter 1 1955 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026, although we continue to monitor this closely.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology, last revised on 12 May 2026.

More details can also be found in the Office for Statistics Regulation's Compliance review of Treatment of Seasonality in Quarterly GDP statistics, and in our response to this review.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please see our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".