Index of Production, UK: September 2026

• Production output was estimated to have increased (up by 0.1%) during Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2026, compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2026; this follows a 0.1% fall in Quarter 2 2026.

• Of the four main sectors, a positive contribution came from “manufacturing” (up by 0.9%) during Quarter 3 2026; this was partially offset by negative contributions from “electricity and gas” (down by 2.1%), “water supply and sewerage" (down by 1.5%), and “mining and quarrying” (down by 2.2%).

• 8 of the 13 subsectors in “manufacturing” increased during Quarter 3 2026, with the largest positive contribution coming from “computer, electronic and optical products” (up by 4.6%); this was partially offset by negative contributions from 5 subsectors, with the largest negative contribution coming from "rubber and plastics products" (down by 2.0%).

• Monthly production output was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in September 2026; this follows an increase in August 2026 (up by 0.7%) and a decrease in July 2026 (down by 0.1%).

• Monthly production in September 2026 saw increases from “manufacturing” (up by 0.7%) and “mining and quarrying” (up by 1.4%); this was partially offset by a decrease in “water supply and sewerage” (down by 1.7%) and “electricity and gas” (down by 0.3%).

• 7 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors saw increased output in September 2026, with the largest positive contribution from “food products, beverages and tobacco” (up by 2.9%); this was partially offset by negative contributions from 6 subsectors, with the largest negative contribution coming from "basic metal and metal products" (down by 2.1%).

All data related to the Index of Production (IoP) are available on our Related data page.

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources. It is calculated by taking turnover and removing the effect of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates.

Most of these data are collected as “turnover values” through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Direct volume series are also collected by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

The MBS is fully online. Business owners can log in from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time.

Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included for 64 production industries for small and medium-sized businesses from January 2018. More information is available in our VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue.

Response rates for September 2026

MBS response rates were 75.1% for September 2026, based on forms returned. This accounted for 87.8% of total turnover coverage of the sample population. For further information, see our Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates dataset.

Quality and methodology

The data reported in IoP bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, such as sampling variability and non-sampling error. More information is available in Section 2 of our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys methodology.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Index of Production, UK quality and methodology information (QMI). 

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in April 2014. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value inthe Code of Practice for Statistics, and should be labelled "accredited official statistics". 

Revisions to Index of Production

This release gives data for September 2026 for the first time. It also incorporates revisions to July 2026 and August 2026. Please see our National Accounts Revisions Policy: updated January 2026 for further details.

Table 1 shows the revisions from the current release against the previous IoP release (August 2026) published on 15 October 2026.

Changes to datasets

As noted in our Index of Production, UK: August 2026 bulletin, we have made some changes to the structure of our published datasets. 

As a result of improvements in Blue Book 2026, we merged the industries of mining of coal and lignite (Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our Index of Production time series dataset. 

We also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4), although this still forms part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products. Current prices will continue to be published in our monthly Index of Production time series dataset.

These changes were first implemented in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June bulletin on 30 September 2026. Further information on these changes are available in our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of IoP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

IoP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and are regularly reviewed. More information is available in our Seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our IoP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level. The seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total IoP output. As part of our quality assurance approach, our time series analysis team regularly complete residual seasonality checks on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series. 

Based on our quality assurance as part of this bulletin, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for IoP in the period from January 1997 to September 2026.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology, published on 12 May 2026. 

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure time series in our updated Monthly GDP low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the sum of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs.

For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.