National population projections: 2024-based

Summary

The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Publications

• UK population projection explorer

  Use our projection tool to find out how changes in fertility, net international migration, and life expectancy could affect the population over a long period.

• National population projections: 2024-based

  The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Data

• High migration variant - Scotland summary

  High migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Scotland summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - UK summary

  Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Great Britain summary

  Principal projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - Wales summary

  Zero net migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Great Britain summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - England summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Scotland summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Wales summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Great Britain summary

  High population variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Scotland summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Wales summary

  Principal projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Wales

  Machine-readable data for Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• High fertility variant - Wales summary

  High fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Wales summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Great Britain summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - Wales summary

  High migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Great Britain summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - UK summary

  High population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - Scotland summary

  Low population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - UK summary

  Zero net migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Great Britain summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - England summary

  Low migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Great Britain summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Scotland summary

  Principal projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Scotland summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Great Britain summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - England summary

  Low fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - Great Britain summary

  High migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - Wales summary

  Low migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Northern Ireland

  Machine-readable data for Northern Ireland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• High fertility variant - UK summary

  High fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Wales summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Scotland summary

  High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - England summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - UK summary

  High migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Scotland summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - England summary

  High fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Zero net migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - Scotland summary

  Zero net migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - Scotland summary

  Low migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - UK summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - England summary

  Zero net migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - England summary

  Principal projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Wales summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• National population projections table of contents

  Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

• Low migration variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - England summary

  High migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - UK summary

  Old age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Great Britain

  Machine-readable data for Great Britain principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• High fertility variant - Great Britain summary

  High fertility variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Scotland

  Machine-readable data for Scotland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Low migration variant - Great Britain summary

  Low migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - UK summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - UK summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Scotland summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - Scotland summary

  High fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - UK summary

  Low population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Wales summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - England summary

  Young age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Wales summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, England

  Machine-readable data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Zipped population projections data files, UK

  Machine-readable data for United Kingdom principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Low population variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - UK summary

  Young age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Wales summary

  High population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - UK summary

  Low migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - England summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - Wales summary

  Low population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Scotland summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - England summary

  Low population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - England summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - UK summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Great Britain summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - England summary

  High population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - UK summary

  Low fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration variant - Great Britain summary

  Zero net migration (international and within UK migration) variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Wales summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - Great Britain summary

  Low population variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Northern Ireland summary

  Principal projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - England summary

  Old age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

Methodology

• National population projections, variant projections: 2024-based

  The variant projections, a range of scenarios with alternative demographic assumptions, used in the 2024-based national population projections.

• National population projections, migration assumptions: 2024-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce migration assumptions in the 2024-based national population projections.

• National population projections quality and methods guide

  Quality and methodology information for national population projections, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used and data uses and users.

• National population projections, mortality assumptions: 2024-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce mortality assumptions in the 2024-based national population projections.

• National population projections, fertility assumptions: 2024-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce fertility assumptions in the 2024-based national population projections.

Contact details

About the data