GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2025

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept), compared with growth of 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.
• GDP for 2024 as a whole is estimated to have increased by 1.1%, unrevised from the previous estimate.
• There have been minimal revisions to the quarterly path of total real GDP across 2024 and 2025, with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 revised up 0.1 percentage points, and growth in Quarter 2 2025 revised down 0.1 percentage points.
• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.2% in services and 0.2% in construction; the production sector fell by 0.3%.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter and is up 0.9%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
• Real Household Disposable Income per head decreased by 0.8% in the latest quarter, following no change in the previous quarter. 
• The Household Saving Ratio decreased this quarter by 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%, driven by a fall in the contribution of non-pension saving.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept), unrevised from the first estimate (Figure 1). GDP is estimated to be 1.3% higher in Quarter 3 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

There have been minimal revisions to the quarterly path of total real GDP across 2024 and 2025, with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 revised up 0.1 percentage points, and growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 revised down 0.1 percentage points.

The level of real GDP in Quarter 3 2025 compared with Quarter 4 2023 is now estimated to be 2.9% higher, revised down slightly from the first estimate of 3.0%. 

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 3 2025 as a result of updated source data. In addition, we have also corrected for the previously announced data error in the HMRC trade in goods input data from March 2024 onwards. Based on these new data we have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2024 onwards.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the quarterly national accounts GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.24 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article.

The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter following six consecutive quarters of positive growth, but it is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head and real household disposable income per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2025 (revised down from the first estimate of 1.2%), and is now 4.8% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The level of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2025 compared with Quarter 4 2023 is now estimated to be 10.7% higher, revised up slightly from the first estimate of 10.6%.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator grew by 3.5% in Quarter 3 2025 mainly driven by household expenditure, general government and exports. There have been some revisions to the GDP implied deflator across 2024 and 2025 (Figure 2), mainly reflecting revisions in both government spending and activity data. These revisions are discussed in more detail in Section 4: Expenditure.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP in 2024 is estimated to have increased by 1.1%, unrevised from the previous estimate (Figure 3).

While the three approaches to measuring GDP remain closely aligned compared with the first estimate, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty has various reasons and is further discussed in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, following growth of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Overall, in Quarter 3 2025, there were increases in 14 out of 20 of the subsectors of GDP.

The services sector grew by 0.2%, construction output increased by 0.2%, while production fell by 0.3%.

Services

Services output increased by an unrevised 0.2% in Quarter 3 2025, following growth of 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.4% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2025, while consumer-facing services fell by 0.1%.

Figure 4 shows that 10 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was the financial and insurance activities subsector up 1.0%. Within this subsector, the largest contributor was activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities, which grew by 2.3%.

The second-largest positive contribution was from the real estate activities subsector (up 0.4%).

The largest negative contributors to growth in Quarter 3 2025 was professional, scientific and technical activities, which fell by 0.6%, and other service activities, which fell by 3.3%.

Across 2024 and 2025, the services sector sees revisions for the following reasons:

• Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 have been incorporated for the first time
• Some businesses replying late and also updating their Monthly Business Survey returns, along with other source data updates
• A review of seasonal adjustment models

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2025 (previously estimated as a 0.5% fall), following a 0.7% decline in the previous quarter. Production output is 0.2% lower, compared with the same quarter a year ago, revised up from the first estimate of 0.9% lower.

The fall in production in Quarter 3 2025 was mainly because of a decline of 0.8% in manufacturing and 0.4% in mining and quarrying. Elsewhere, there were increases of 1.4% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and a 0.6% increase in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 5 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed negatively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter (Figure 5). The largest negative contributor to the fall was the manufacture of transport equipment, which declined by 4.7%. This was largely driven by a 10.3% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported a large fall in vehicle output in September 2025 because a cyber incident paused production at a major manufacturer, while plant restructuring drove down commercial vehicle volumes. The Cyber Monitoring Centre categorised this as "a Category 3 systemic event".

Across 2024 and 2025, the production sector sees revisions to growth mainly driven by manufacturing. Overall, the revisions to production reflect:

• new VAT turnover data for Quarter 2 2025, and revisions to previous quarters
• Some businesses replying late and also updating their Monthly Business Survey returns, along with other source data updates 
• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2025, following growth of 1.2% in the previous quarter. Repair and maintenance increased by 1.0%, and new work fell by 0.3% in the latest quarter. Within repair and maintenance (R&M), the largest positive contributor came from private housing R&M, which grew by 3.4%. In new work (NW), the largest negative contributor came from private housing NW, which fell by 1.9%.

In line with National Accounts Revision Policy, data from January 2024 for public housing new work has been corrected in this release. Further detail can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: October 2025 bulletin.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, with growth mainly driven by increases in gross fixed capital formation, household consumption, and government consumption (Figure 6). These offset a large negative contribution from gross capital formation: other, which reflects lower valuables and inventories compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

The previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 3 2025 are shown in Figure 6. However, there have been revisions across 2024 and 2025, which are further discussed in this section.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was a 0.3% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 3 2025, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.2%. Household consumption is now estimated to be 0.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Within household consumption, growth was driven by clothing and footwear, food and drink, and transport.

Net tourism had little contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.3% in the latest quarter.

Revisions to household consumption across 2024 and 2025 are mainly a result of updated data, such as from our Living Costs and Food Survey. This is one of our many sources, for more information see Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2025 (previously estimated as a 0.3% increase) and is 1.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in health, education and social care.

Over the course of 2024 and 2025, both nominal and real government consumption sees revisions mainly because of:

• updated data on education spending

• updated data on residential and non-residential social care spending

• incorporating better information on health care volumes where we have updated our source of hospital activity using Secondary Uses Service (SUS) data from NHS England

As a result of these updates to both current price and chained volume measures, the government implied deflator has been revised up 1.1 percentage points in 2024.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) grew by 1.3% in Quarter 3 2025, revised down from the first estimate increase of 1.8%. GFCF is now 2.9% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by other machinery and equipment, dwellings, and intellectual property products.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2025, revised up from the first estimate fall of 0.3%. Business investment is now 2.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Revisions in GFCF and business investment mainly reflect updated Quarterly Acquisitions and Disposals of Capital Assets Survey (QCAS) data and other source data (mostly affecting the latest period).

Excluding the alignment adjustments, revised estimates show that chained volume inventories increased by £65 million in Quarter 3 2025 (Table 2).

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 0.8% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2025, revised down from the first estimate deficit of 0.6%. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.6% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2025 (Figure 7), revised up from the first estimate deficit of 0.7%.

The trade deficit, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, is shown in Figure 7 as a percentage of nominal GDP in this release compared with the first quarterly estimate. Revisions reflect:

• a correction to an HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) error in fuels exports from March 2024 onwards, as previously announced in our UK trade bulletin

• updated International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS) data for Quarter 3 2025 replacing forecasts used in the first estimate

• updated administrative data sources, particularly in transportation services

Export volumes grew by 0.2% in the latest quarter (revised up from a 0.1% fall), and are now 2.3% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 1.1% increase in services exports, which offset a 1.0% fall in goods exports. The increase in services exports was mainly because of other business services, intellectual property, and transportation. Within goods exports, the decline was driven by falls in chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, and material manufacturers.

Import volumes are estimated to have increased by 0.3% in the latest quarter (revised up from a 0.3% fall in the first estimate) and are now 5.0% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Services imports increased by 0.6%, mainly because of transportation and insurance and pension services. Goods imports grew by 0.1%, with rises in machinery and transport equipment, and material manufacturers.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.0% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 (previously estimated as a 1.2% increase) and is up by 4.8%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

The previous and latest contributions to nominal GDP growth in Quarter 3 2025 are shown in Figure 8. However, there have been revisions across 2024 and 2025, which are further discussed in this section.

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.7% in the latest quarter (revised up from a first estimate increase of 1.5%) and is up 8.4%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth was driven by increases of 4.1% in employers' social contributions (mainly in National Insurance contributions) and 1.1% in wages and salaries.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employee estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries, because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect updated labour market indicators and other source data (replacing forecasts in the later period).

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter, and is 2.6% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. This was driven by increases in both mixed income (mainly self-employment) and other gross operating surplus.

Revisions in the latest quarter is mainly driven by household gross operating surplus, reflecting updated source data.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 2.4% in Quarter 3 2025, revised up from the first estimate increase of 1.0%.

There was a 1.6% increase in taxes (with growth in VAT, Stamp duty, Wine and Spirits and Air passenger duty), and a 5.3% fall in subsidies (mainly in Housing Equity Injection), which contribute positively to GDP.

The revisions in taxes less subsidies mainly reflect updated data on VAT and Housing equity injection.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, fell by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2025 (Table 3). This is mainly because of a fall in private non-financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter, following six consecutive quarters of positive growth (Figure 9); but it is up 0.9%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures across 2024 and 2025, reflecting revisions to GDP as discussed at the start of the release and in addition there have been revisions to population figures.

Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on mid-year UK population estimates published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) are based on an interpolation between the mid-2024 estimate and the provisional mid-2025 estimate published on 27 November 2025. For Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2025, the population figure is based on the provisional mid-2025 estimate. The population figure for Quarter 3 2025 is based on an interpolation between UK 2022-based population projections for mid-2026 (as published on 28 January 2025) using the migration category variant and the mid-2025 provisional UK population estimate.

We estimate Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) per head, by dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has decreased by 0.8% in Quarter 3 2025, following no change in the previous quarter. The Quarter 2 position was revised down from a positive 0.2%, published in the GDP quarterly national accounts: April to June 2025. The components of this measure are further broken down in section 7 of this bulletin.

Real household disposable income per head (seasonally adjusted)

Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head decreased by 0.8% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, following no change in the previous quarter. The decrease in RHDI is caused by several factors. Nominal gross disposable income fell by 0.1% this quarter, following growth of 1.0% in the previous quarter, driven by an increase in taxes on income and wealth of £6.0 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in wages and salaries of £3.5 billion. The implied deflator (used to remove the effects of inflation) grew by 0.6% in the latest quarter, which contributes to the decrease in RHDI per head.

Households’ saving ratio

The households’ saving ratio is estimated to be 9.5% in the latest quarter, down from 10.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. During Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025, the contribution of pension saving increased to 4.6 percentage points. Non-pension saving contributed 4.9 percentage points to the saving ratio, down from 5.8 percentage points in the previous quarter. Final consumption expenditure grew by 0.9% this quarter, down from growth of 1.0% in the previous quarter driven by increases in spending on transport, food and non-alcoholic beverages, miscellaneous goods and services as well as clothing and footwear.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

In the latest quarter, general government and financial corporations were net borrowers, while non-financial corporations, households, non-profit institutions serving households and rest of the world were net lenders.

The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have decreased to 1.8% in Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2025 compared with 3.0% of GDP in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

Non-financial corporations switched to net lending of 0.4% of GDP in the latest quarter, from borrowing of 0.3% of GDP in Quarter 2 2025. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations switched to net lending of £2.8 billion in Quarter 3 2025, from net borrowing of £3.0 billion in the previous quarter. This switch was driven by a rise in net property income of 11.4 billion, partially offset by a £2.7 billion rise in gross capital formation and a £2.2 billion decrease in gross operating surplus.

Financial corporations net borrowing position was at 0.0% of GDP (£0.4 billion) in the latest quarter following lending of 0.2% of GDP in Quarter 2 2025. This was driven by a decrease in net property income of £5.7 billion partially offset by a £4.1 billion fall in gross capital formation.

General government decreased their net borrowing to 4.6% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 5.9% of GDP in Quarter 2 2025. Within general government, central government decreased their net borrowing to £33.6 billion, following £42.1 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by increases in taxes on income and wealth of £6.7 billion, an increase in net social contributions of £2.2 billion and an increase of £1.4 billion in taxes on production and imports. Partially offset by a rise in final consumption expenditure of £1.8 billion.

Households decreased their net lending position to 2.5% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 3.1% of GDP in Quarter 2 2025. The drivers for this position are the same as those identified in the household saving ratio section.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

In the latest quarter, general government were net borrowers, while non-financial corporations, financial corporations, households, non-profit institutions serving households and rest of the world were net lenders.

The UK’s net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased to 2.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 compared with 2.2% of GDP in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025.

Non-financial corporations have switched to net lending as a percentage of GDP of 0.1% in the latest quarter, from net borrowing of 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations switched to net lending of £0.5 billion in Quarter 3 2025 from net borrowing of £1.5 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in net equity and investment fund shares or units of £14.2 billion partially offset by a fall in net loans of £8.8 billion and a fall in net debt securities of £2.2 billion.

Financial corporations decreased their net lending to 1.2% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 2.3% in Quarter 2 2025. This was driven by a fall in net currency and deposits of £83.2 billion, a fall in long-term debt securities issued by UK central government of £30.7 billion, a fall in net derivatives of £3.9 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in net loans of £85.4 billion.

General government decreased their net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to an estimated 4.8% in the latest quarter from 8.7% in Quarter 2 2025. Within general government, central government decreased their net borrowing to £33.5 billion, following £68.4 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by a rise in net currency and deposits of £21.2 billion, a fall in the liabilities of government debt securities of £14.3 billion, and partially offset by a fall in net loans of £6.9 billion

Households decreased their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter to 1.2% from 4.4% in Quarter 2 2025. This was driven by a rise in loans secured on dwellings of £12.2 billion, a fall in net other accounts of £7.5 billion, partially offset by a rise in net currency and deposits of £2.5 billion.

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP):

• the output approach

• the expenditure approach

• the income approach

The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term, than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level, at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 and 2025, until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed further later in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly national accounts dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HMRC implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future. Forecasted data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 have now been replaced with ITIS-based estimates.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project, and travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation.

Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

Restarting of Producer Prices publications

We restarted publication of our monthly business prices publications on 22 October 2025. Business prices data with corrected chain-linking methods and updated historical weights have been used in our monthly GDP datasets for Producer Price Indices (PPI), Import Price Indices (IPI), Export Price Indices (EPI), and Service Producer Price Indices (SPPI) in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

These updates to business prices data will be incorporated in GDP estimates in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, becoming fully integrated for the entire time series in our Blue Book 2026 publication.

Further information on the chain-linking error and the impact of methodological changes in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Impact of correction to chain-linking methodology used in Producer Price Indices and Services Producer Price Indices: October 2025 article.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 5: Case study: quarterly GDP of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article, updated on 30 September 2025.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by theOffice for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".