GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2026

In the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7%, following growths of 0.5% in the three months to July 2026 and a growth of 0.5% in the three months to June 2026 (both July and June are revised up from a 0.4% growth in our previous publication).

• Services output grew by 0.9%, after growing by 0.7% in the three months to July 2026 (revised up from a 0.6% growth in our previous publication).

• Production output fell by 0.2%, following a fall of 0.7% in the three months to July 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication).

• Construction output fell by 1.0%; this follows a fall of 0.2% in the three months to July 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication).

In the month to August 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.1% in August 2026, following an unrevised growth of 0.4% in July 2026 and a growth of 0.4% in June 2026 (revised up from a 0.3% growth in our previous publication).

• The growth in August was driven by a 0.8% growth in production, with services showing no growth, and construction falling by 0.2% in August 2026.

This release is consistent with the quarterly national accounts release published on 30 September 2026, which itself is consistent with Blue Book 2026.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026. This is the eighth consecutive three-month on three-month growth and follows growths of 0.5% in both the three months to July 2026 and in the three months to June 2026 (both July and June are revised up from 0.4% growths in our previous publication).

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from the services sector, which grew by 0.9% in the three months to August 2026. There were falls in the remaining two main sectors, with a fall of 1.0% in construction sector and a 0.2% fall in the production sector in August 2026.

This release includes revisions to July 2026 estimates for the first time. It also incorporates revisions from January 1997 to June 2026 estimates, in line with our quarterly national accounts published on 30 September 2026. July 2026 revisions are the result of updated source data; revisions prior to July are covered in the quarterly national accounts release. These revisions are consistent with Blue Book 2026. More information can be found in Section 7: Revisions to GDP. 

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions, and our recent blog on managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy when producing GDP.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in August 2026, following a growth of 0.4% in July 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication), and a growth of 0.4% in June 2026 (revised up from a 0.3% growth in our previous publication). Production grew by 0.8%, services showed no growth and construction fell by 0.2% in August 2026.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.8% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 2.2%, production grew by 0.8%, while construction fell by 1.6%. This was last higher in the three months to October 2022, compared with the previous year, when it grew by 2.0%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 2.1% higher in August 2026. This was last higher in August 2022 when it grew by 2.6% compared with the same month a year ago.

The sectors with the largest positive contributions to growth in the three months to August 2026, compared with a year ago are professional, scientific and technical activities, and information and communication.

Within these sectors, the industries with the largest positive contributions are: 

• computer programming, consultancy and related activities (contributing 0.32 percentage points to GDP) 

• legal activities (contributing 0.22 percentage points) 

• scientific research and development (contributing 0.18 percentage points)

• advertising and market research (contributing 0.11 percentage points) 

• information service activities (contributing 0.10 percentage points to GDP) 

Combined, these industries contribute 0.93 percentage points to the 1.8% GDP growth, and 1.15 percentage points to the 2.2% growth in services in the three months to August 2026 compared to the same period a year ago. 

Services output grew 0.9% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026, and was the only positive contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to August 2026. This follows a growth of 0.7% in the three months to July 2026 (revised up from 0.6% in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.6% in the three months to June 2026 (revised up from 0.5% in our previous publication).

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.9% in the three months to August 2026, following a growth of 0.7% in the three months to July 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2024 to August 2026

There was a rise in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to August 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 2.8%), driven by growths in accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy (up 5.5%), scientific research and development (up 4.9%), and legal activities (up 3.4%)

• information and communication (up 2.8%), which was mainly driven by a growth of 5.0% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities. At an industry level, computer programming, consultancy and related activities has been the industry with the largest contribution to three-monthly growth in each of the last sixth months.

• administrative and support service activities (up 3.0%), driven by growths of 7.6% in rental and leasing activities and 5.9% in services to buildings and landscape activities

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 0.1%), driven by a fall of 2.3% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, contributing a 0.08 percentage point fall to top level GDP. This marked four consecutive three-month on three-month falls (Figure 5). Weakness in this industry came from Wholesale on a fee or contract basis and other specialised wholesale (excl. wholesale of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels and related products).

On the month, services output showed no growth in August 2026. This follows growths of 0.5% in July 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.4% in our previous publication), and 0.5% in June 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.4% in our previous publication). In August 2026, 4 of the 14 subsectors grew.

The largest positive contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 2.0% in August 2026. This was mainly driven by a growth of 3.8% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which contributed 0.16 percentage points to services output and 0.13 percentage points to real GDP in July 2026. (Figure 5).

This growth follows five consecutive month-on-month falls and remains 1.6% lower than February 2026. The main contributor to monthly growth was wholesale of information and communication equipment. This coincides with a period of recent strength within computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

The second largest positive contribution to services sector output in August 2026 came from professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.5%). This was driven by growths in legal activities (up 3.3%), architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (up 2.0%), and advertising and market research (up 2.6%).

The largest negative contribution to services output in August 2026 was administrative and support service activities (down 1.7%). This was driven by falls in rental and leasing activities (down 2.4%), office administrative, office support and other business support activities (down 2.2%), and employment activities (down 1.4%).

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.1%)

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.9%)

• accommodation (up 2.8%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage service activities (down 1.5%)

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.5%)

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 1.7%)

Consumer-facing services fell by 0.3% in August 2026, following a fall of 0.1% in July 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.4% in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.4% in June 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication). The largest negative contribution at the industry level came from sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 7.1%). This follows a fall of 1.2% in July 2026 (revised down from a 0.3% fall in our previous publication).

Food and beverage service activities was the second largest negative contributor, with a fall of 2.7%. The largest positive contribution to consumer-facing services in August 2026 came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 2.7%.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 44.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 88.7% in August 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2024 and 2025 now stands at 97.6%, and 97.9%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: August 2026 release.

The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026. This follows revised falls of 0.7% in the three months to July 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication) and 0.1% in the three months to June 2026 (revised down from no growth in our previous publication).

Figure 7: Production output fell by 0.2% in the three months to August 2026, despite growing by 0.8% in the month of August 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2024 to August 2026

In the three months to August 2026, the production sector fell by 0.2%, with negative contributions coming from water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 3.1%), and mining and quarrying (down 0.6%). These falls were partially offset by growths in manufacturing (up 0.1%), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 0.4%).

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2024 to August 2026

On the month, the production output is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in August 2026, this follows a rise of 0.3% in July 2026 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication), and a fall of 0.2% in June 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication). This was driven by growths in manufacturing (up 1.2%), mining and quarrying (up 1.4%) and electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply (up 0.1%). These growths were partially offset by a fall in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 1.2%)

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.1% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026, with 7 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period.

The largest positive contributions came from:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.5%)

• other manufacturing and repair (up 2.0%)

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 1.8%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.7%)

• manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 2.5%)

• manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing (down 1.6%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

In the month of August 2026, manufacturing output grew by 1.2%, with 9 of the 13 subsectors seeing growth. This follows a growth of 1.0% in July 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.9% in our previous publication) and a fall of 0.6% in June 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication).  

The largest positive contribution in August 2026 came from a growth of 5.1% in manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, following an unrevised growth of 3.4% in July 2026. The next largest positive contribution came from a growth of 1.8% in manufacture of transport equipment, but this follows a fall of 1.0% in July 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication). These growths were partially offset by falls in other manufacturing and repair (down 2.1%) and manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (down 1.0%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 74.5% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 90.4% in August 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.8% and 98.0%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: August 2026 release.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 1.0% in the three months to August 2026 compared with the three months to May 2026. Both new work and repair and maintenance fell during the period, decreasing by 1.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Within new work, the largest negative contribution came from private housing new work, which fell by 3.2%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contribution came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 1.9%.

Figure 10: Construction output fell by 1.0% in the three months to August 2026, compared with the three months to May 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2024 to August 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.2% in August 2026. This is the fourth consecutive decrease in the monthly series, which includes a decrease of 0.5% in July 2026 (revised from an increase of 0.1%), and a decrease of 0.3% (revised from a decrease of 0.1%) in June 2026.

The decrease in monthly output in August 2026 came solely from a decrease in new work, which fell by 0.7%, while repair and maintenance grew by 0.4%. At the sector level, the main contribution to the monthly decrease in new work was private housing new work, which fell by 1.9%.

Figure 11: New work decreased while repair and maintenance increased in August 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2024 to August 2026

Figure 12 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For August 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 85.4%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2024 and 2025 now stand at 95.8% and 97.4%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: August 2026 bulletin

Our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators, UK: 8 October 2026 dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for September 2026.

Recent increases in energy prices have been sustained, with electricity and gas wholesale prices remaining more than double their levels from a year earlier. Automotive fuel prices have also continued to increase, reflecting ongoing pressures on global energy markets.

Indicators of consumer demand weakened in September 2026. Retail footfall decreased compared with the previous month, in line with usual seasonal patterns, and was also slightly lower than a year earlier. The estimated quantity of automotive fuel purchased per transaction decreased further. Our Retail Sales, Great Britain release for September 2026 will be published on 23 October 2026.

Housing indicators pointed to weaker activity in September 2026. The number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales fell for a second consecutive month. New sales listings on the Rightmove website remained lower than they were a year earlier, while the average time properties spent on the market was higher.

The labour market showed some signs of weakening. Early September 2026 data indicate an increase in potential redundancies, measured by HR1 forms submitted to the Insolvency Service, following three consecutive monthly declines.

According to the Business insights and impact on the UK economy Wave 165, released on 8 October 2026, 48% of businesses with 10 or more employees reported concern about at least one factor affecting supply chains over the next year. This is broadly stable from August 2026, and up 17 percentage points from September 2025. The two most frequently reported concerns were the impacts on supply chains from international conflict (32%) and shipping distribution (21%).

In late September 2026, nearly three-quarters of businesses reported some degree of concern around the increases in fuel prices (73%), with 60% of businesses in the transportation and storage industry stating they were "very concerned". Energy prices commanded a similar proportion (72%) of businesses surveyed stating they had some concern, which is the highest level since the introduction of the question in March 2026. The accommodation and food service industry saw the highest proportion of businesses expressing some concern (91%) regarding energy prices.

This release includes revisions to July 2026 for the first time and also incorporates revisions from January 1997 to June 2026, in line with our quarterly national accounts published on 30 September 2026. This is consistent with Blue Book 2026 and in line with Section 4: Monthly data of the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Blue Book 2026 incorporates more recent survey and administrative information, together with methodological improvements. Our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article covers the impact of these improvements on our industry-level data. In addition, data for 2024 has been estimated for the first time using the annual supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. As usual, we will provide detailed revision analysis in our article, which will be published on 30 October 2026.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from January 2026 to July 2026 since our last release on 11 September 2026.

In July 2026, construction was revised down to a fall of 0.5% (revised down from 0.1% growth). This is the result of new returns from several constructions firms replacing previously imputed values.

There was a 0.1% upwards revision to production in July 2026 because of an upwards revision to the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas. This is the result of updated source data.

There was also a 0.1% upwards revision to services in July 2026. This was the result of updated data across a range of industries, with the largest positive contributors from activities of head offices.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our  Monthly GDP low level industry data dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: August 2026

• Index of Production, UK: August 2026

• Construction output in Great Britain: August 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2024 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2025 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to August 2026.

This topic is explored further in our article on assessing residual seasonality, published on 12 May 2026. In addition, we published an article on Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs on 8 October 2026.

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Changes to structure of datasets

As noted in our publications in August and September 2026, we have made some changes to the structure of our published datasets.

As a result of improvements in Blue Book 2026, we have merged the industries of mining of coal and lignite (SIC industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our low level industries dataset and quarterly low level aggregates dataset.

We also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4). This will still form part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products (SIC industry 10) and higher aggregates. Current prices will continue to be published in the quarterly low level aggregates dataset.

Further information on these changes can be found in the article, Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis.

Consultation on release times for market-sensitive economic statistics

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is reviewing the release times for its market-sensitive economic statistics, such as GDP monthly estimate, to consider whether the current arrangements continue to best serve the public good, support user needs and align with the principles set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. We are running a consultation to gather evidence on the impact of different release times. The consultation asks how you use market-sensitive economic statistics, your views on potential release time options, and any other considerations we should take into account. Please note that this consultation will be closing on Friday 30 October 2026.