GDP monthly estimate, UK: September 2026

In the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7%, following a growth of 0.6% in the three months to August 2026 (revised down from a 0.7% growth in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.5% in the three months to July 2026.

• Services output grew by 0.9%, after an unrevised growth of 0.9% in the three months to August 2026.

• Production output grew by 0.1%, following a fall of 0.5% in the three months to August 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication).

• Construction output fell by 0.7%; this follows a fall of 0.9% in the three months to August 2026 (revised up from a fall of 1.0% in our previous publication).

In the month to September 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.2% in September 2026, after showing no growth in August 2026 (revised down from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.4% in July 2026.

• The growth in September 2026 was driven by a 0.2% growth in services, with production growing by 0.3%, and construction rising by 0.8% in September 2026.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026. This is the ninth consecutive three-month on three-month growth and follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to August 2026 (revised down from a 0.7% growth in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.5% in the three months to July 2026.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from the services sector, which grew by 0.9% in the three months to September 2026. There was also a positive contribution from the production sector, which grew by 0.1% in the three months to September 2026. These growths were partially offset by a 0.7% fall in the construction sector over the same period.

This release includes revisions to July and August 2026 estimates. More information can be found in Section 8: Revisions to GDP.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available, and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions, and our recent Managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy in producing our best estimates of GDP blog.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in September 2026, following no growth in August 2026 (revised down from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.4% in July 2026. All three sectors grew in September 2026, with services rising by 0.2%, construction growing by 0.8%, and production growing by 0.3%.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the same period a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 2.3% and production grew by 1.5%, while construction fell by 1.7%. This was last higher in the three months to October 2022, compared with the previous year, when it grew by 2.0%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 2.1% higher in September 2026. This was last higher in August 2022, when GDP grew by 2.6% compared with the same month a year ago. In our August 2026 release, we reported a growth in GDP of 1.9% in the three months to August 2026 compared with a year ago, and a growth of 2.1% in the month to August 2026 compared with a year ago. These have both been revised down in this release to 1.7% and 2.0%, respectively.

Services output grew 0.9% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026, and was the ninth consecutive three-month on three-month growth seen in this sector. This follows a growth of 0.9% in the three months to August 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication), and a growth of 0.8% in the three months to July 2026 (revised up from 0.7% in our previous publication).

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.9% in the three months to September 2026, following a growth of 0.9% in the three months to August 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2024 to September 2026

There was a rise in output in 11 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to September 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• administrative and support service activities (up 4.1%), driven by growths in rental and leasing activities (up 6.6%), services to buildings and landscape activities (up 7.5%), and employment activities (up 4.2%)

• information and communication (up 2.1%), which was mainly driven by a growth of 4.4% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (Figure 5)

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.6%), driven by growths in accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy (up 3.8%), and advertising and market research (up 4.1%)

Negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• education (down 0.5%), driven by non-market education, which fell by 1.0% but was partially offset by market education, which grew by 1.3% in the three months to September 2026

• accommodation and food service activities (down 0.5%), driven by food and beverage service activities, which fell by 1.9%; this is the fifth consecutive three-monthly fall of this industry

At an industry level, computer programming, consultancy and related activities has been the industry with the largest contribution to three-monthly growth in each of the last seven months. In the three months to September 2026, this industry contributed 0.15 percentage points to the growth in GDP, and 0.18 percentage points to the growth in the services sector.

On the month, services output grew by 0.2% in September 2026. This follows a fall of 0.1% in August 2026 (revised down from showing no growth in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.5% in July 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication). In September 2026, 9 of the 14 subsectors grew.

The largest positive contribution came from real estate activities, which grew by 0.4% in September 2026. All three industries in this subsector grew, with the largest positive contribution coming from real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (up 5.6%). There were also growths in imputed rent (up 0.1%) and buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (up 0.2%).

The second largest positive contribution to services sector output in September 2026 came from transportation and storage (up 1.4%). This was driven by growths in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport (up 3.0%), and postal and courier activities (up 3.3%).

The largest negative contribution to services output in September 2026 was professional, scientific and technical activities (down 0.7%). This was driven by a 4.5% fall in scientific research and development, and a 1.9% fall in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis.

The next largest negative contribution to services output in September 2026 came from information and communication (down 0.6%). This was driven by a 1.9% fall in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which was the industry with the largest negative contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), contributing negative 0.07 percentage points in September 2026. This fall follows six consecutive monthly growths for this industry (Figure 5).

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 3.3%)

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.8%)

• accommodation (up 2.5%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage service activities (down 1.9%)

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 3.2%)

From January to September 2026, non-consumer-facing services have contributed more to services three-month on three-month growth than consumer-facing services. This corresponds with consistently strong growth in business-facing service sectors, such as information and communication and professional services.

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.6% in September 2026, following no growth in August 2026 (revised up from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication), and a fall of 0.1% in July 2026 (unrevised from our previous publication). The largest positive contribution at the industry level came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 3.0%); this follows a growth of 2.9% in August 2026 (revised up from a 2.7% rise in our previous publication). The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported on 5 October 2026 that this was the "strongest September since 2017" in terms of new car registrations.

Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities was the second largest positive contributor, with a growth of 5.3%. The largest negative contribution to consumer-facing services in September 2026 came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 0.4%. For more information, see our Retail sales, Great Britain: September 2026 bulletin.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 44.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 87.0% in September 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2024 and 2025 now stands at 97.6%, and 97.9%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: September 2026 bulletin.

The production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026. This follows falls of 0.5% in the three months to August 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication) and 0.8% in the three months to July 2026 (revised down from a fall of 0.7% in our previous publication).

Figure 8: Production output increased by 0.1% in the three months to September 2026 and increased by 0.3% in the month of September 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2024 to September 2026

In the three months to September 2026, the production sector grew by 0.1%, with a positive contribution coming from manufacturing (up 0.9%). This rise was partially offset by falls in:

• electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 2.1%)

• water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 1.5%)

• mining and quarrying (down 2.2%)

Figure 9: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2024 to September 2026

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place.  

2. Weights of these sub-sectors are available in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in September 2026. This follows a rise of 0.7% in August 2026 (revised down from 0.8% in our previous publication), and a fall of 0.1% in July 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication). This was driven by growths in manufacturing (up 0.7%) and mining and quarrying (up 1.4%). These growths were partially offset by a fall in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 1.7%) and electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply (down 0.3%).

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.9% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period.

The largest positive contributions came from:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 4.6%)

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 2.1%)

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 3.0%)

These growths were partially offset, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 2.0%)

• manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products (down 3.7%)

• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 0.7%)

Figure 10 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

In the month of September 2026, manufacturing output grew by 0.7%, with 7 of the 13 subsectors seeing growth. This follows a growth of 0.7% in August 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) and a growth of 0.8% in July 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.0% in our previous publication).

The largest positive contribution in September 2026 came from a growth of 2.9% in manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, this follows a fall of 0.5% in August 2026 (revised up from a fall of 1.0% in our previous publication). The next largest positive contribution came from a growth of 3.7% in other manufacturing and repair; this follows a fall of 2.0% in August 2026 (revised up from a fall of 2.1% in our previous publication). These growths were partially offset by falls in manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.1%) and manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (down 2.1%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 74.5% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.8% in September 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.8% and 98.0%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: September 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.7% in the three months to September 2026 compared with the three months to June 2026. New work fell by 1.6% over the period, while repair and maintenance grew by 0.5%. Within new work, the largest negative contribution came from private housing new work, which fell by 4.7%. In repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 1.5%.

Figure 11: Construction output fell by 0.7% in the three months to September 2026, compared with the three months to June 2026 

Monthly index and three-month on-three month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2024 to September 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in September 2026. This follows four consecutive decreases in the monthly series, which includes a decrease of 0.5% in August 2026 (revised from a decrease of 0.2%), and a decrease of 0.2% (revised from a decrease of 0.5%) in July 2026.

The increase in monthly output in September 2026 came from increases in both new work, and repair and maintenance, which grew by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. At the sector level, the main contribution to the monthly increase was infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.3%.

Figure 12: Both new work and repair and maintenance increased in September 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2024 to September 2026 

Figure 13 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors. 

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For September 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 76.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2024 and 2025 now stand at 95.8% and 97.4%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: September 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, July to September 2026 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in September 2026, as part of our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The motor vehicles industry saw positive monthly growth in both manufacturing and car sales in September 2026. The increase in vehicle manufacturing is supported by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), who reported that UK production was the strongest September since 2023 and up by 36.3% in the year-on-year series. This large growth in vehicle manufacturing compared with the previous year is likely because of a cyber-attack in September 2025, which saw production stoppages at Britain's biggest automotive employer.

The release of the new car registration plate had a notable impact on car sales in September 2026. As reported by the SMMT, the new car market saw its 10th consecutive month of growth in the year-on-year series and its strongest September since 2017. This is supported by our UK new vehicle registrations and production dataset, where the "total cars and light commercial vehicles sales, seasonally adjusted index" had a monthly increase of 3.7%, and were at their highest level since September 2020.

There is also widespread strength in industries which may be related to artificial intelligence (AI). The computer programming, consultancy and related activity industry made the largest positive contribution to growth in the three months to September 2026. Within production, the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products made the largest positive contribution, with a growth of 4.6% in the three months to September 2026. In September 2026, we published our Measuring AI in the UK economy using a thematic account methodology, which covers the approach we are taking to develop an AI thematic account. We plan to publish estimates of the impact of AI on the UK economy in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2028.

Our Economic activity and social change real-time indicators, UK, dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for October 2026.

Energy prices increased further, with wholesale electricity prices being approximately double their level a year ago and an even stronger increase in wholesale gas prices. Automotive fuel prices also remained elevated following increases in recent months, reflecting continued pressures in global energy markets.

Indicators of consumer demand showed some improvement in October 2026 compared with September 2026 but were weaker over the longer term. Retail footfall and debit card spending both increased on the month, although footfall was slightly lower than a year earlier, and annual growth in debit card spending remained below the rate of inflation. Our Retail Sales, Great Britain bulletin for October 2026 will be published on 20 November 2026.

Housing indicators continued to point to weaker activity over the longer term in October 2026. Despite increasing on the month, the number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales was considerably lower than a year earlier, continuing the recent downward trend. New sales listings on the Rightmove web page were also below their level a year ago, while the average time properties spent on the market was higher.

Transport indicators weakened in October 2026, reflecting disruptions from Storm Austen and Storm Boelo towards the end of the month. Ship visits to UK ports fell considerably, particularly for cargo and tanker vessels, while UK flights were also affected.

According to our Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 5 November 2026 bulletin, wave 167, 36% of businesses with 10 or more employees reported in October 2026 that they were not concerned about factors impacting supply chains over the next year. This was down 21 percentage points from 57% at the introduction of the question in September 2024. The top concerns were:

• international conflict (31%)

• shipping disruption (21%)

• cyber-attacks (21%)

In late October 2026, of businesses with 10 or more employees surveyed, 77% reported some concern regarding energy prices, and 76% reported some concern regarding fuel prices, both broadly stable from late September 2026.

This release includes data for September 2026 for the first time, with revisions to July and August 2026. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors in July and August 2026 since our last release on 15 October 2026.

The downward revision to GDP in August 2026 is primarily because of the 0.1 percentage point downwards revision to services. Within services, the largest downwards revisions were from professional, scientific and technical activities, and administrative and support service activities.

The downward revision to production in July 2026 is because of revisions in each of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, mining and quarrying and manufacturing. The downward revision in August 2026 is primarily because of a downward revision in manufacturing.

The revisions to construction in July and August 2026 are because of late and updated monthly survey data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) low level industry data dataset. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in our following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: September 2026 bulletin

• Index of Production, UK: September 2026 bulletin

• Construction output in Great Britain: September 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, July to September 2026 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in our:

• Current and historical Monthly Business Survey (services) response rates dataset

• Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates dataset

• Output in the construction industry dataset

Our Monthly GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based only on the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in our Construction output in Great Britain bulletin, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of our Annual Business Survey (ABS) in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced, and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply and use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same since a year ago, where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption (IC) ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2024, and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2025 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and therefore, GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our GDP QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to September 2026.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology, published on 12 May 2026. In addition, we published our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs methodology on 8 October 2026.

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated Monthly GDP low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Changes to structure of datasets

As noted in our publications in August and September 2026, we have made some changes to the structure of our published datasets.

As a result of improvements in our UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2026 compendium, we have merged the industries of mining of coal and lignite (SIC industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our Monthly GDP low level industries dataset and our quarterly GDP output approach – low-level aggregates dataset.

We also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4). This will still form part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products (SIC industry 10) and higher aggregates. Current prices will continue to be published in our quarterly low level aggregates dataset.

Further information on these changes can be found in our Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis article.