GDP monthly estimate, UK: April 2026

In the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7%, following a growth of 0.6% in the three months to March 2026 and a growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026.
• Services output grew by 0.8%, after also growing by 0.8% in the three months to March 2026.
• Production output contracted by 0.1%; this follows a growth of 0.2% in the three months to March 2026.
• Construction output grew by 1.6%, following a 0.4% growth in the three months to March 2026; this continues a partial recovery following five consecutive three-monthly falls from October 2025 to February 2026.

In the month to April 2026:

• Monthly GDP contracted by 0.1% in April 2026, following growths of 0.3% in March 2026 and 0.4% in February 2026.
• This fall was driven by a 0.2% fall in services, which was partially offset by a 0.1% rise in construction; production showed no growth.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026. This is the fifth consecutive three-month on three-month growth. It follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to March 2026 and a growth of 0.5% in the three months to February 2026.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 0.8% in services output. Construction output grew by 1.6%, while production output fell by 0.1%, in the three months to April 2026.

In this release, there are no periods open for revision. Figures will be open to revisions from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 in our next quarterly national accounts publication on 30 June 2026. These revisions will then be incorporated into our GDP monthly estimate bulletin on 16 July 2026.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative) as more data become available and we subsequently update estimates with that additional information. For more information on revisions, see our Why GDP figures are revised article.

We have made improvements in this release to the coverage of government health output. These improvements allow us to incorporate estimates for several areas that were previously only captured in our quarterly health series, such as prescription drugs, mental healthcare and community health services. Inclusion of these additional series improves estimates of monthly health outputs. Our analysis shows that this is expected to improve the revisions performance for this series.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in April 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in March 2026 and a growth of 0.4% in February 2026. This is the first monthly fall since August 2025 (when it fell 0.2%). Services output fell by 0.2%, production showed no growth, and construction grew by 0.1% in April 2026.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.6%, construction fell by 1.0%, and production fell by 0.2%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.2% higher in April 2026, compared with the same month a year ago.

Services output grew 0.8% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026. This was the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to April 2026. This follows a growth of 0.8% in the three months to March 2026 and a growth of 0.6% in the three months to February 2026.

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.8% in the three months to April 2026, following a growth of 0.8% in the three months to March 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to April 2026

There was a rise in output in 12 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to April 2026. The largest positive contributions at the subsector level came from:

• information and communication (up 1.7%), driven by a growth of 3.0% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, and a growth of 6.0% in publishing activities

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.2%), driven by a growth of 2.0% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.3%), driven by growth in advertising and market research (up 8.1%) and activities of head offices; management consultancy activities (up 2.7%)

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level came from:

• arts, entertainment and recreation (down 0.5%), because of a fall of 4.9% in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

On the month, services output fell by 0.2% in April 2026. This follows a growth of 0.3% in March 2026 and a growth of 0.5% in February 2026. In April 2026, 8 of the 14 subsectors fell.

The largest negative contribution to services sector output in April 2026 came from administrative and support service activities, which fell by 2.2%. The largest negative contributor to the subsector was a fall of 3.8% in office administrative, office support and other business support activities. This follows growths of 2.8% and 1.4% in March 2026 and February 2026, respectively. Services to buildings and landscape activities (down 4.3%) and employment activities (down 2.6%) also contributed negatively to the subsector.

The second largest negative contribution came from arts, entertainment and recreation (down 4.3%). This was driven by a fall of 9.1% in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities. This was the largest negative contribution from a single industry to both services output and real GDP growth, contributing negative 0.07 percentage points to services output and negative 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth (Figure 5). Some of this fall can be attributed to effects from the conflict in the Middle East, with the cancellation of multiple sporting events in the Middle East affecting the output of UK-based businesses.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles also contributed negatively, with a fall of 0.4% in April 2026. This was because of a fall of 1.3% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. For more information see our Retail sales, Great Britain: April 2026 bulletin.

The largest positive contribution came from information and communication, which grew by 1.1% in the sixth consecutive month of growth for this subsector. This growth was driven by growth in computer programming, consultancy and related activities (up 1.8%) and information service activities (up 2.4%).

Transportation and storage also contributed positively to services output in April 2026 (up 1.4%). This was driven by a growth of 2.0% in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport, and a growth of 1.9% in warehousing and support activities for transportation.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.6% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• accommodation (up 4.5%)
• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.6%)
• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (up 0.6%)

The only negative contribution in this period came from:

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 4.9%)

Consumer-facing services fell by 0.5% in April 2026, following a growth of 0.5% in March 2026. The largest negative contributions at the industry level came from sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 9.1%) and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.3%). The largest positive contribution came from accommodation, which grew by 4.1% following four consecutive monthly growths.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services April 2026 dataset.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.3% in April 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.6%, respectively. 

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: April 2026 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026. This follows a growth of 0.2% in the three months to March 2026.

Figure 7: Production output remained flat in the month of April 2026 and fell by 0.1% in the three months to April 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for Index of Production, UK, January 2023 to April 2026

The 0.1% fall in production in the three months to April 2026 was because of falls of:

• 2.4% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply

• 1.0% in water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities

• 0.8% in mining and quarrying

These falls were partially offset by a 0.6% growth in manufacturing.

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2023 to April 2026

Notes:

1. Weights for these subsectors are available in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output showed no growth in April 2026, following a fall of 0.2% in March 2026 and a growth of 0.3% in February 2026. Growths of 0.4% and 2.5% in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying, respectively, were offset by falls of 3.2% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and 0.5% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 0.6% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period. The largest positive contributors to this growth were:

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 2.2%).

• manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (up 2.9%).

• other manufacturing and repair (up 2.3%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (down 4.0%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 4.4%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.4% in April 2026, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing. This follows growth of 1.2% in March 2026 and a contraction of 0.2% in February 2026.

The largest positive contribution came from a rise of 4.2% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, after a growth of 2.1% in March 2026. The next largest positive contributions came from the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (up 1.8%), and rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (up 1.7%). These falls were partially offset by falls in:

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 1.9%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 5.5%)

• manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down 1.0%)

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 86.5% in April 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.7%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: April 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.6% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026. Both repair and maintenance, and new work, grew over the period, increasing by 3.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 3.5%. In new work, the largest positive contributor was private commercial new work, which grew by 2.1%.

Figure 10: Construction output grew by 1.6% in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2023 to April 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in April 2026. This follows growths of 1.5% in March 2026 and 0.5% in February 2026.

The growth in monthly output in April 2026 came solely from an increase in repair and maintenance, which grew by 0.6%. New work fell by 0.3%. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was public other new work, which grew by 3.6%.

Figure 11: Repair and maintenance increased while new work decreased in April 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2023 to April 2026

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For April 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 78.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate in 2025 is 97.0%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: April 2026.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in April 2026, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, which started at the end of February, has been cited by various businesses in terms of April 2026 data. Some manufacturing industries, wholesale, warehousing and support activities for transportation, accommodation and travel agencies stated that the conflict in the Middle East had an impact, in terms of reduced turnover in April 2026. 

A common theme of the comments received was the increase in prices because of the Middle East conflict. These comments were mainly for energy and fuel costs, with some suggesting an impact seen in April 2026 and also suggesting an impact for future months. We reported that "crude oil and refined petroleum products provided the largest upward contributions to change in the annual inflation rates for input and output prices" in our Producer price inflation, UK: April 2026 bulletin, published on 20 May 2026.

This is also supported by our recent Business insights and impact on the economy: 21 May 2026 bulletin. An increase in prices of goods bought in April 2026 was reported by 40% of trading businesses. This was broadly similar to March 2026, but was 11 percentage points higher than February 2026 and was at its highest proportion reported since December 2022.

Our Economic activity and social change real-time indicators, UK: 11 June 2026 dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for May 2026.

Indicators of consumer demand suggested some mixed signals during the month. Retail footfall increased compared with April 2026 but remained slightly below the level seen in May 2025. Annual growth in the estimated quantity demanded per transaction of automotive fuel decreased further in May 2026 and was notably lower than a year earlier, coinciding with a marked increase in the growth of automotive fuel prices. Our Retail sales release for May 2026 will be published on 19 June 2026.

Housing market activity showed recent modest growth. This is because seasonally adjusted Energy Performance Certificates lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales increased compared with the previous month, although they were slightly lower than in the same month a year earlier.

The labour market showed some signs of weakening. The number of potential redundancies, measured by HR1 forms submitted to the Insolvency Service, increasing sharply compared with both the previous month and the same month a year ago.

Transport indicators were mixed, with the seasonally adjusted number of UK flights increasing on both the month and the year. Ship visits to major UK ports continued a recent downward trend, decreasing compared with April 2026 and remaining lower than a year earlier. In contrast, while seasonally adjusted new car and light commercial vehicle registrations fell on the month, they were higher than on the same month a year earlier, alongside a notable increase in registrations of electric vehicles.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: April 2026 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: April 2026 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: April 2026 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 1.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 'accredited official statistics'.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, construction, or manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to April 2026.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology, published on 12 May 2026.

In this release, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated Monthly GDP low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the sum of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking.