GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2026

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following revised growth of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025.
• In output terms, all three sectors contributed to growth in the latest quarter; the largest contribution came from the services sector, growing by 0.8%.
• GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 1.4% annually in 2025, following revised growth of 1.0% in 2024 (previously 1.1%).
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.
• In line with the updated National Accounts Revisions Policy, this bulletin includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025; there have been small plus and minus 0.1 percentage point revisions to growth across both these years.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following revised growth of 0.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 (Figure 1).

Our monthly GDP figures published today also show that GDP grew by 0.3% in March 2026, following growth of 0.4% in February 2026 and no growth in January 2026 (revised down from growths of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively, in our previous publication).

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. There have been small plus and minus 0.1 percentage point revisions to the quarters across 2024 and 2025; mainly reflecting revised source data, changes to seasonal adjustment factors and a review of previously applied balancing adjustments. We have separately published a comprehensive methodology explaining how we assess for residual seasonality. To bring this information together, we have incorporated experiences both internationally (United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis) and academic expertise (University of Southampton). Today, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also published a blog that discusses how the ONS monitors the quality of our seasonally adjusted estimates in times of dynamic economic activity.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.28 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article.

The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2026 and is now 4.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 3.5% in Quarter 1 2026, mainly caused by household expenditure, gross capital formation, general government, and exports (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 1.4% in 2025 (Figure 3). Growth in 2024 has been revised down slightly to 1.0% (previously 1.1%), with the three approaches showing growth in the range of 0.8% to 1.2%.

There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). There are various reasons for this uncertainty, and these are further discussed in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter, following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec). Overall, in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, there were increases in 14 out of 20 subsectors of GDP.

The services sector increased by 0.8%, while the construction sector increased by 0.4% and production by 0.2%.

Services

Services output increased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, following a 0.2% increase in Quarter 4 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.4% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by 0.7%, while consumer-facing services grew by 0.8%.

Figure 4 shows that 11 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, which grew by 2.0%. This was driven by growth of 3.1% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a growth of 1.6% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, as shown in our Retail sales bulletin.

Despite the recent growth, the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector remains below levels seen in 2022, and is only 0.3% higher in March 2026 than in the same month last year.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 1 2026 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 1.0%, mainly because of declines in rental and leasing activities, and employment activities.

More detail on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: March 2026 bulletin.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 1 2026, following a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be unchanged compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in production output in the latest quarter was mainly because of a growth of 0.8% in manufacturing and a growth of 0.6% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. These growths were partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying, which was down 4.5% and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, which fell by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2026. 

Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 8 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter (Figure 5). The largest positive contributions to the growth were the manufacture of transport equipment, which increased by 5.7%, driven by a 10.9% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This is a base effect caused by the comparison to Quarter 4 2025. This includes October 2025 when the industry had not recovered fully from impacts of a cyber incident in August 2025. 

Further detail on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: March 2026 bulletin.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 1 2026 but remains 1.3% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. Repair and maintenance grew by 3.4% over the period, whereas new work fell by 1.9%. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.1%. In new work, the largest negative contributor was private new housing, which fell by 2.6%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2026, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2026 bulletin.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, which was mainly caused by increases in gross capital formation: other, household consumption and government consumption (Figure 6).

Within gross capital formation: other, the largest contribution was from acquisitions less disposals of valuables, which increased by £4.5 billion between Quarter 4 2025 and Quarter 1 of 2026. This component is largely made up of non-monetary gold, which also appears within net trade, so the effect is GDP neutral.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was a 0.6% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 1 2026. Household consumption is now estimated to be up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Within household consumption in the latest quarter, growth was caused by increases in miscellaneous, food and drink, recreation and culture, and transport.

Net tourism made little contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no effect on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.6% in the latest quarter.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 0.4% in Quarter 1 2026, and is now estimated to be 1.4% higher than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in education, health, and social care.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is now estimated to be 0.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the fall are the result of declines in intellectual property products and dwellings.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter and is now estimated to be 1.8% lower than it was in the same quarter a year ago.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories increased by £2,352 million in Quarter 1 2026 (Table 2).

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 1.8% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2026. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. You can find more information about non-monetary gold in our article on non-monetary gold in national accounts.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.9% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2026 (Figure 7).

During our routine quality assurance checks, we identified an error in trade in goods export data supplied by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). The error occurred because of new HMRC processing systems, resulting in incorrect data being delivered to the ONS. HMRC Overseas Trade Statistics are not affected.

The error affects data from July 2025 to December 2025, and has been corrected in this release, and in our UK trade bulletin. The corrected data do not affect GDP estimates in either Quarter 3 or Quarter 4 2025.

More information can be found in our Monthly trade release.

Export volumes increased by 0.1% in the latest quarter and are now 0.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The increase in the latest quarter was mainly caused by a 1.0% growth in goods exports, which offset a 0.5% decrease in services exports. Within goods exports, the growth was mainly caused by rises in machinery and transport equipment. The fall in services exports was mainly because of travel services.

Import volumes are estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter and are now 1.8% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Goods imports increased by 1.0% mainly because of increases in machinery and transport equipment. Services imports fell by 0.1%, mainly because of travel services.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026 and is up 4.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP in the latest quarter was mainly caused by an increase in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.7% in the latest quarter and is up 5.8% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in Quarter 1 2026 was caused by increases of 1.3% in wages and salaries, and 3.2% in employers social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, because of ongoing improvements in the LFS and therefore increased volatility in quarterly estimates, we continue to use additional information. This includes using information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve both the accuracy of the income measure of GDP and coherence with related statistics, such as those in the Sector Accounts.

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have increased by 1.8% in the latest quarter and is 2.5% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. This was caused by an increase in household gross operating surplus and mixed income.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 1 2026 and are now 0.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

There was a 0.6% fall in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax), and a 6.6% fall in subsidies that contribute positively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2026 (Table 3). This is mainly because of an increase in private non-financial corporations (PNFC).

Estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations remains subject to uncertainty. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 9). There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures across 2025, reflecting some revisions to GDP £ million figures as discussed at the start of this bulletin and population revisions.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 1.1% annually in 2025, following a 0.1% fall in 2024.

Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on our mid-year UK population estimates published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 up to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 are based on an interpolation between mid-year estimates and 2024-based national population projections using the principal variant published in our National population projections bulletin, on 28 April 2026. Figures for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 onwards are based on the 2024-based national population projections.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025.

There have been small plus and minus 0.1 percentage point revisions to the quarters across 2024 and 2025. These revisions mainly reflect revised source data and changes to seasonal adjustment factors that were implemented after we received Quarter 1 2026 data and were then able to assess data for the previous quarters. Most notably, growth in both Quarter 1 2024 and Quarter 1 2025 have each been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. In addition, we have reviewed previously applied balancing adjustments.

We have separately published a comprehensive methodology explaining how we assess for residual seasonality. In this methodology, we draw on international experiences from the United States' Bureau of Economic Analysis, as well as academic expertise from the University of Southampton. Today, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also published a blog post that discusses how the ONS monitors the quality of our seasonally adjusted estimates in times of dynamic economic activity.

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages to 1 decimal place are shown in Table 4.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article.

As standard, we prefer having the alignment adjustment out of tolerance, rather than over-adjusting individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU.

We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021. We therefore advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a strong survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will facilitate more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project. Travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation.

Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP):

• the output approach

• the expenditure approach

• the income approach

The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle for 2025, with real growth estimated in a range of 1.3% to 1.5%. There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed further later in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the sum of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Based on our combined assessment from the suite of statistical tests, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate outputs from Quarter 1 1995 to Quarter 1 2026, although we continue to monitor this closely.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality article, published on 12 May 2026.

More details can also be found in the OSR's Compliance review of Treatment of Seasonality in Quarterly GDP statistics and in our response to the OSR review.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".