GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2025

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter.
• GDP is estimated to be 1.0% higher in Quarter 4 2025, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.2% in production, while the construction sector fell by 2.1% and the services sector showed no growth.
• GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% annually in 2025, following growth of 1.1% in 2024.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen for the second consecutive quarter by 0.1%, but is up by 0.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% annually in 2025, following no growth in 2024.
• In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this bulletin includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025; growth to total aggregate real GDP has not been revised across these periods, however, there have been some revisions to underlying components.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, following growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter (Figure 1). GDP is estimated to be 1.0% higher in Quarter 4 2025 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Our GDP monthly estimates bulletin, published on 12 February 2026, shows that GDP increased by 0.1% in December 2025, following a growth of 0.2% in November 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025.

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 as a result of updated source data and a review of seasonal adjustment. There have been no revisions to the quarterly path of total real GDP across 2025, however, there have been some revisions to underlying components.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, plus or minus 0.28 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article.

The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen for the second consecutive quarter following six previous quarters of positive growth, but it is up 0.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 4 2025 and is now 4.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator grew by 3.2% in Quarter 4 2025, mainly driven by household expenditure, gross capital formation, general government and exports (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% in 2025, following growth of 1.1% in 2024 (Figure 3). This is our first estimate of 2025 annual growth, which reflects the average of the three approaches of GDP, and as such there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle because of data content. Real growth is estimated to be in a range of 1.1% to 1.6%.

There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). There are various reasons for this uncertainty and these are further discussed in Section 11: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, following growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, in Quarter 4 2025, there were increases in 13 out of 20 of the subsectors of GDP.

The production sector increased by 1.2%, while the construction sector fell by 2.1% and services showed no growth.

Services

Services output showed no growth in Quarter 4 2025, following an increase of 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.0% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) showed no growth in Quarter 4 2025, while consumer-facing services increased by 0.2%.

Figure 4 shows that 8 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was the administrative and support services subsector, up by 1.2%. Within this subsector, the largest contributors were travel agency, tour operators and other reservation services and related activities, which grew by 7.5%, and employment activities, which increased by 3.1%.

The next largest positive contributions were from public administration and defence, which increased by 0.5%, information and communication, which increased by 0.4%, and human health and social work activities, up by 0.2%.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 4 2025 was professional, scientific and technical activities, which fell by 1.1%.

More detail on services can be found in our Index of Services, UK: December 2025 bulletin.

Across 2025, the services sector saw revisions for the following reasons:

• some businesses replying late and also updating their Monthly Business Survey returns, along with other source data updates
• revisions have been made across 2025 to the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles because of updated returns to the Retail Sales Index (RSI) survey; these revisions are discussed in more detail in our Retail sales December 2025 bulletin, published on 23 January 2026
• a review of seasonal adjustment models, most notably in non-market education

Production

The production sector is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in Quarter 4 2025, following a 0.7% fall in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be 1.0% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in production output in the latest quarter was mainly because of a growth of 0.9% in manufacturing, and a growth of 3.1% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Mining and quarrying (up by 1.4%), and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up by 0.7%) also grew in the latest quarter.

Looking at the manufacturing sector in more detail, 7 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors contributed positively to manufacturing growth in the latest quarter (Figure 5). The largest positive contributions to the growth were other manufacturing and repair, which grew by 5.3%, and the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified, which grew by 4.6%.

Further detail on production can be found in our Index of Production, UK: December 2025 bulletin.

Across 2025, the production sector sees revisions to growth mainly driven by manufacturing.

Overall, the revisions to production reflect:

• some businesses replying late and also updating their Monthly Business Survey returns, along with other source data updates

• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 2.1% in Quarter 4 2025, following growth of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Repair and maintenance fell by 1.5%, and new work fell by 2.6% over the period. Within repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.9%. In new work, the largest negative contributor came from private housing new work, which fell by 3.6%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2025, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, October to December 2025 bulletin.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, which was mainly driven by increases in gross capital formation: other, household consumption and government consumption (Figure 6).

Within gross capital formation: other, the largest contribution was from acquisitions less disposals of valuables, which increased by £6.9 billion between Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 of 2025. This component is largely made up of non-monetary gold, which appears within net trade and so the effect is GDP neutral.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was a 0.2% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 4 2025, following growth of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Household consumption is now estimated to be up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago, and increased by 1.0% across 2025 as a whole.

Within household consumption, growth was driven by restaurants and hotels, recreation and culture, and clothing and footwear.

Net tourism made little contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.2% in the latest quarter.

Revisions to household consumption across 2025 are mainly because of updated data.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 0.4% in Quarter 4 2025 and is 1.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in health, public administration and defence, and social care.

Revisions in government consumption partly reflect revised source data and updates to our seasonal adjustment model for the volume of education.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2025, and is now 3.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 2.7% in Quarter 4 2025, following growth of 1.6% in the previous quarter. Business investment is now 2.0% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Business investment increased by 3.5% across 2025, compared with 2024.

Revisions in GFCF and business investment mainly reflect updated Quarterly Acquisitions and Disposals of Capital Assets Survey (QCAS) data and other source data.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories fell by £2,159 million in Quarter 4 2025 (Table 2).

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 2.0% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2025. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.5% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2025 (Figure 7).

There have been notable revisions to trade in goods from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025. This reflects downward revisions to exports because of new merchanting data; larger upward revisions to imports than exports to account for a processing error in ship transactions data; and larger downward revisions to exports than imports following an improvement to the methodology for removing double counting of precious metals across different data sources. For further information on these revisions and processing error, including indicative impacts on 2024 data, please see our UK trade: December 2025 bulletin.

Export volumes fell by 0.6% in the latest quarter and are now 0.5% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. The fall in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 2.8% decline in goods exports, which offset a 1.0% increase in services exports. Within goods exports, the decline was driven by falls in machinery and transport equipment, fuels, and material manufacturers and chemicals. The increase in services exports was mainly because of travel and other business services.

Import volumes are estimated to have increased by 0.8% in the latest quarter and are now 2.3% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Services imports increased by 0.9%, mainly because of insurance and pension services, and travel. Goods imports grew by 0.8%, with large movements in non-monetary gold. However, this series also appears within gross capital formation (GCF) as valuables, so the effect is GDP neutral.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 and is up by 4.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.4% in the latest quarter and is up by 6.5% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth was driven by increases of 1.5% in employers' social contributions (mainly in National Insurance contributions) and 1.4% in wages and salaries.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employee estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries, because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP. This is reflected in revisions across the quarters open to revision, where balancing adjustments have been applied to improve alignment to PAYE Real Time Information estimates.

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have increased by 0.5% in the latest quarter and is 1.3% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. This was driven by an increase in household gross operating surplus.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in Quarter 4 2025, and are now 3.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

There was a 0.4% fall in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax (VAT)), and a 0.6% increase in subsidies that contribute negatively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, grew by 1.7% in 2025 (Table 3). This is mainly because of a rise in private non-financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen for the second consecutive quarter following six previous quarters of positive growth, but it is up 0.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 9). There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures across 2025, reflecting some small revisions to GDP £ million figures as discussed at the start of this bulletin.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% annually in 2025, following no growth in 2024.

Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on mid-year UK population estimates published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 are based on an interpolation between the mid-2024 estimate and the provisional mid-2025 estimate published on 27 November 2025. For Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, the population figure is based on the provisional mid-2025 estimate. The population figure for Quarter 3 2025 and Quarter 4 2025 is based on an interpolation between UK 2022-based population projections for mid-2026 (as published on 28 January 2025) using the migration category variant and the mid-2025 provisional UK population estimate.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025.

In our next monthly GDP publication on 13 March 2026, we will exceptionally be revising data from January 2024 to December 2025 in order to bring through updates to non-market education and retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and trailers. These will also be incorporated into the Quarterly national accounts being published on 31 March 2026, where there will be revisions from Quarter 1 2024. 

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages to 1 decimal place are shown in Table 4.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP):

• the output approach

• the expenditure approach

• the income approach

The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term, than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle for 2025, with real growth estimated in a range of 1.1% to 1.6%. There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed further later in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP first quarterly estimate dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project, and travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation.

Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for average GDP and the aggregate three approaches (output, expenditure and income) in the period from Quarter 1 1955 to Quarter 4 2025.

This topic is explored further in Section 5: Case study: quarterly GDP of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article, updated on 30 September 2025.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by theOffice for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".