London, the East and the South East regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England
London is projected to grow by 13%, the East by 9% and the South East by 8% over the 10 year period to mid-2022, compared with the projected growth for England of 7% over the same time period
The North East is projected to grow at the slowest rate, by just less than 3% over 10 years
change in population for local authorities ranges from a fall of almost 2% in Barrow-in-Furness to growth of 22% for Tower Hamlets over the 10 years to mid-2022
The percentage of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by between one fifth and one quarter in all regions by mid-2022
The number of local authorities where more than a quarter of the population are aged 65 and over is projected to increase from an estimated 24 areas in mid-2012 to 83 areas in mid-2022
This bulletin presents the key findings from the 2012-based subnational population projections for England. They replace the 2011-based interim projections published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in September 2013.
Subnational population projections provide estimates of the future population of English regions, local authorities and clinical commissioning groups.
These projections are based on the 2012 mid-year population estimates published on 26 June 2013 and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration based on local trends. They are consistent with the 2012-based national population projections for England. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. The trends for these projections take into account information from the 2011 Census.
The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. These are used as a common framework for informing local-level policy and planning in a number of different fields as they are produced in a consistent way.
Examples of uses made of the population projections include:
informing local planning of healthcare, education and other service provisions
forming the basis for other products such as household projections
a basis for researchers and other organisations that also produce their own projections
Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward due to the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour. This is particularly so for smaller geographical areas and detailed age and sex breakdowns.
This bulletin focuses on the first 10 years of the projections. Projections to mid-2037 are also available on the ONS website. For more information on how ONS population projections meet user needs along with information on their fitness for purpose, please see the report on quality and methodology (120.6 Kb Pdf) .Back to table of contents
The 2012-based national population projections for England published in November 2013 projected the population of England to grow by 3.8 million (7.2%) by mid-2022. All regions of England are projected to see population growth over the 10 year period to mid-2022 but the rate of that growth varies. Three regions are projected to grow faster than the national average with London projected to grow the fastest, by 13% over the 10 year period. The East is projected to grow by 8.6% and the South East by 7.8% per cent. The region projected to grow at the slowest rate over the next 10 years is the North East at 2.9% (Table 1).
Table 1: Population change in regions by age group, mid-2012 to mid-2022
|Percentage change over 10 years|
|Mid-2012||Mid-2022||All ages||0-15 years old||16-64 years old||65 and over|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||5,316,700||5,580,800||5.0||6.3||0.4||20.7|
|Source: Office for National Statistics|
|1. Figures may not sum due to rounding|
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Of the 13% projected growth in London, almost nine tenths is due to there being more births than deaths (natural change) and about one tenth is due to net inward migration. Although London is a destination for many people migrating to live and work, both from other regions and internationally, there are also large numbers of people who migrate out of London, which is why growth due to net migration is projected to be just 1.8% (Table 2). One reason for the high level of natural change is because London as a region has a relatively young age structure, with only a little over 11% of its population being aged 65 and over in mid-2012 compared with most other regions which have an average of 17% of the population aged 65 and over. Since mortality rates are lower in younger age groups, fewer deaths are projected in London than elsewhere. London also has a correspondingly larger population of adults aged 16 to 64. In particular, nearly half the population in mid-2012 are estimated to be aged between 16 and 44 years old, the main childbearing ages. In most other regions the proportion in this age group is just less than two fifths. This drives the higher number of births being projected in London over the next 10 years, leading to a 16% projected increase in the number of children between mid-2012 and mid-2022 (Table 1).
Focusing on the older age groups, Table 1 shows that the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase in all regions by an average of 22% between mid-2012 and mid-2022 as a result of the general ageing of the population as projected in the national population projections. The fastest growth in those aged 65 and over is seen in the East Midlands where the number is projected to increase by 25% from 811 thousands to slightly over 1 million over the 10 year period.
Table 2: Percentage population change between mid-2012 and mid-2022 by component of change
|Total||Natural change||Total migration||Internal migration||International migration|
|Yorkshire and The Humber||5.0||3.5||1.5||-1.0||2.4|
|Source: Office for National Statistics|
|1. Figures may not sum due to constraining methods and rounding|
|2. Cross border migration is included with international migration|
|3. Natural change is defined as the difference between births and deaths|
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Population projections are produced for similar small areas in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, however it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years.
National Records of Scotland (NRS) produce population projections for Scottish council and NHS board areas. The latest Scottish subnational projections are 2012-based and were published on 14 May 2014.
The statistical directorate of the Welsh Government produces population projections for Welsh local authorities, although, unlike the projections for English local authorities, these do not aggregate to equal the national population projections for the country as a whole. The latest Welsh subnational projections are 2011-based and were published on 20 December 2013
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) produces population projections for areas within Northern Ireland, including local government, health and education geographies. The latest Northern Irish subnational projections are 2008-based and were published on 27 May 2010.Back to table of contents
The subnational population projections take the 2012 mid-year population estimates, which were published on 26 June 2013, as their starting point. The projected local authority population for each year is calculated by ageing on the population for the previous year, applying assumed local fertility and mortality rates to calculate the number of projected births and deaths, and then adjusting for migration into and out of each local authority. Local authority assumed levels of fertility, mortality and migration are derived from observed values during the previous five years and are constrained to the assumptions made in the 2012-based national projections. Finally, the subnational population projections are constrained to the national population projections for England. A full description of the methodology used to produce the subnational population projections is available.Back to table of contents
Contact details for this Statistical bulletin
Telephone: +44 (0) 1329 44 4661