Skip to content

Release: Subnational Population Projections , 2010-based projections

Released: 21 March 2012 Next edition: 28 September 2012


Suzanne Dunsmith

Population Projections Unit

Telephone: +44 (0)1329 444652

Categories: Sub-national Population Projections, Population, Population Change, Population Projections

Frequency of release: Biennially

Language: English

Geographical coverage: England

Geographical breakdown: Local Authority and County, Other area classification

  • London, the East and the East Midlands regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England.

  • London is projected to grow by 14 per cent and both the East and the East Midlands regions are projected to grow by 10 per cent over the 10 year period to 2020, compared with the projected growth for England of eight per cent over the same time period.

  • The number of local authorities where more than a quarter of the population are aged 65 and over is projected to increase from an estimated ten areas in 2010 to 63 by 2020.

Subnational population projections use past trends to project forward the population to give an indication of the future population for 25 years from the base year. Available for local authorities and Primary Care Organisations.

Subnational population projections are available for all England local authority areas by age and sex. They are based on the indicative mid-2010 population estimates published on 17 November 2011 following implementation of new methods from the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme. The projections are consistent with the principal 2010-based national population projections for England.

Subnational population projections are used as a common framework for local area resource allocation, planning and policy making in a number of fields such as health and education.

The projections are not forecasts and do not take any account of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate the change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographic areas.

Other useful information

These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Content from the Office for National Statistics.
© Crown Copyright applies unless otherwise stated.