Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population based on mid-year population estimates and a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. Available for the UK and its constituent countries as national population projections and for the regions, local authorities and clinical commissioning groups in England as subnational population projections. These projections are widely used for resource allocation and planning.
The number of households in England is projected to increase by 1.6 million (7.1%) over the next 10 years, from 23.2 million in 2018 to 24.8 million in 2028; this level of growth is very similar to the 2016-based projections.
Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is of older age; 64% of the total growth in households is accounted for by households where the HRP is aged 75 years or over.
The highest regional rate of growth in households is projected to take place in the South West, while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate.
The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.0 million (4.5%) in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 66.4 million in mid 2018 to 69.4 million in mid 2028.
England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 5.0% between mid 2018 and mid 2028, compared with 3.7% for Northern Ireland, 1.8% for Scotland and 0.6% for Wales.
Over the next 10 years, 27% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 73% resulting from net international migration; although net migration falls during this period, the number of deaths rises as those born in the baby boom after World War Two reach older ages.
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016 and 2018-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
In addition to the principal projection, variant projections are produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. This release presents the data for an additional six combination and special case variant projections.
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
Supplementary analysis to the subnational population projections to help understand local area projections. Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.