Spotlight
National population projections: 2020-based interim
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.
- England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.
- UK population growth over the next 10 years is projected to be driven by a net 2.2 million people migrating into the country.
Household projections for England: 2018-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The number of households in England is projected to increase by 1.6 million (7.1%) over the next 10 years, from 23.2 million in 2018 to 24.8 million in 2028; this level of growth is very similar to the 2016-based projections.
- Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is of older age; 64% of the total growth in households is accounted for by households where the HRP is aged 75 years or over.
- The highest regional rate of growth in households is projected to take place in the South West, while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate.
Datasets related to Population projections
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020-based interim national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions: Table 1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for local authorities: Table 2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections incorporating births, deaths and migration for regions and local authorities: Table 5
Population figures over a 25-year period, including births, deaths and migration by sex for regions and local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2020-based interim
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2018-based
Indicate potential future population size of English local and health authorities. Widely used in planning – for example labour market, housing, health and education.
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Household projections for England – household type projections: 2016-based
Indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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Future plans for research on population estimates and projections
Outline of our work plan to address the recommendations in the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of ONS population estimates and projections.
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National and subnational population projections – user feedback
Overview of responses to our invitation to provide feedback on the future timescales for national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs) for the UK.
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National and subnational population projections - update on our invitation for user feedback
An update on the recent invitation to users to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections for the UK.
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Invitation to provide feedback on timescales for future national and subnational population projections
This article invites users to provide feedback on a short set of questions on their preferences for future national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs).
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
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National population projections
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
Methodology related to Population projections
Looking for local statistics?
A handy guide to let you know where to find local statistics.