Spotlight
Household projections for England: 2018-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The number of households in England is projected to increase by 1.6 million (7.1%) over the next 10 years, from 23.2 million in 2018 to 24.8 million in 2028; this level of growth is very similar to the 2016-based projections.
- Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is of older age; 64% of the total growth in households is accounted for by households where the HRP is aged 75 years or over.
- The highest regional rate of growth in households is projected to take place in the South West, while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate.
National population projections: 2018-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.0 million (4.5%) in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 66.4 million in mid 2018 to 69.4 million in mid 2028.
- England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 5.0% between mid 2018 and mid 2028, compared with 3.7% for Northern Ireland, 1.8% for Scotland and 0.6% for Wales.
- Over the next 10 years, 27% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 73% resulting from net international migration; although net migration falls during this period, the number of deaths rises as those born in the baby boom after World War Two reach older ages.
National and subnational population projections - update on our invitation for user feedback
An update on the recent invitation to users to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections for the UK.
Datasets related to Population projections
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016 and 2018-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions: Table 1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for local authorities: Table 2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections incorporating births, deaths and migration for regions and local authorities: Table 5
Population figures over a 25-year period, including births, deaths and migration by sex for regions and local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2018-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. This is widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2018-based
Indicate potential future population size of English local and health authorities. Widely used in planning – for example labour market, housing, health and education.
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Household projections for England – household type projections: 2016-based
Indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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Invitation to provide feedback on timescales for future national and subnational population projections
This article invites users to provide feedback on a short set of questions on their preferences for future national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs).
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
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National population projections
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
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National population projections
In addition to the principal projection, variant projections are produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. This release presents the data for an additional six combination and special case variant projections.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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Subnational population projections, supplementary analysis
Supplementary analysis to the subnational population projections to help understand local area projections. Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.