Highlights
National population projections: 2018-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.0 million (4.5%) in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 66.4 million in mid 2018 to 69.4 million in mid 2028.
- England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 5.0% between mid 2018 and mid 2028, compared with 3.7% for Northern Ireland, 1.8% for Scotland and 0.6% for Wales.
- Over the next 10 years, 27% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 73% resulting from net international migration; although net migration falls during this period, the number of deaths rises as those born in the baby boom after World War Two reach older ages.
Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
What's in the bulletin?
- West Midlands is the region with the largest negative difference in population in the 10-year migration variant, with 38,300 fewer residents compared with the principal projection by mid-2026.
- London is the region with the largest positive difference in population in the 10-year migration variant, with 36,200 more residents compared with the principal projection by mid-2026.
- Liverpool is the local authority with the largest negative difference in population in the 10-year migration variant, with 17,900 fewer residents compared with the principal projection by mid-2026.
Subnational population projections for England
Indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities, clinical commissioning groups and NHS regions of England.
Datasets related to Population projections
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016 and 2018-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions: Table 1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2016-based estimates are the principal projection and variants are only available to accompany the 2016-based release.
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Population projections for local authorities: Table 2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2016-based estimates are the principal projection and variants are only available to accompany the 2016-based release.
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Population projections incorporating births, deaths and migration for regions and local authorities: Table 5
Population figures over a 25-year period, including births, deaths and migration by sex for regions and local authorities in England. 2016-based estimates are the principal projection and variants are only available to accompany the 2016-based release.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2018-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. This is widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
Indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities, clinical commissioning groups and NHS regions of England.
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Household projections for England – household type projections: 2016-based
Indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
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National population projections
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
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National population projections
In addition to the principal projection, variant projections are produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. This release presents the data for an additional six combination and special case variant projections.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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Subnational population projections, supplementary analysis
Supplementary analysis to the subnational population projections to help understand local area projections. Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.