Highlights

National Population Projections: 2016-based statistical bulletin

What's in the bulletin?

  • The UK population is projected to increase by 3.6 million (5.5%) over the next 10 years, from an estimated 65.6 million in mid-2016 to 69.2 million in mid-2026.
  • England is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 5.9% between mid-2016 and mid-2026, compared with 4.2% for Northern Ireland, 3.2% for Scotland and 3.1% for Wales.
  • Over the next 10 years, 46% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 54% resulting from net international migration.
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    National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.

  • National Population Projections: 2014-based projections

    National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.

  • National Population Projections: 2014-based extra variants report

    Population projections are uncertain and become increasingly so the further they are carried forward in time. In addition to the principal (main or central) projection, variant projections are therefore produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. In order to publish the principal and main variants as early as possible, publication is separated into 2 releases.

  • Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections: 2014-based projections

    This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.

  • Subnational population projections, supplementary analysis: 2014-based projections

    Supplementary analysis to the subnational population projections to help understand local area projections. Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.

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