Highlights
National Population Projections: 2016-based statistical bulletin
What's in the bulletin?
- The UK population is projected to increase by 3.6 million (5.5%) over the next 10 years, from an estimated 65.6 million in mid-2016 to 69.2 million in mid-2026.
- England is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 5.9% between mid-2016 and mid-2026, compared with 4.2% for Northern Ireland, 3.2% for Scotland and 3.1% for Wales.
- Over the next 10 years, 46% of UK population growth is projected to result from more births than deaths, with 54% resulting from net international migration.
Datasets related to Population projections
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National Population Projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014 and 2016-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Table A1-1, Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Z1 - Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Subnational Population Projections for Regions in England: Table 1
Population figures for mid-2014 to mid-2039 for persons, males and females in five year age groups for regions in England.
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Subnational Population Projections for Local Authorities in England: Table 2
Population figures for mid-2014 to mid-2039 for persons, males and females in five year age groups for local authorities in England.
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Subnational Population Projections with Components of Change (Births, Deaths and Migration) for Regions and Local Authorities in England: Table 5
Components of change, births, deaths and migration for mid-2014 to mid-2039 for regions and local authorities in England.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National Population Projections: 2016-based statistical bulletin
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2014-based projections
Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.
Articles
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National population projections
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
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National Population Projections
National population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the UK and its constituent countries based on a set of assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration, including a number of variant projections based on alternative scenarios.
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National population projections
In addition to the principal projection, variant projections are produced based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration. This release presents the data for an additional six combination and special case variant projections.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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Subnational population projections, supplementary analysis
Supplementary analysis to the subnational population projections to help understand local area projections. Subnational population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and Clinical Commissioning Groups of England.
Methodology related to Population projections
Looking for local statistics?
A handy guide to let you know where to find local statistics.