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Release: Subnational Population Projections, 2012-based projections

Released: 29 May 2014

Contact

Denise E. Williams

Population Projections Unit

projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Telephone: +44 (0)1329 444 652

Categories: Population, Population Change, Population Projections, Sub-national Population Projections

Frequency of release: Biennially

Language: English

Geographical coverage: England

Geographical breakdown: Local Authority and County, Other area classification

  • London, the East and the South East regions are all projected to grow at a faster rate than England.

  • London is projected to grow by 13%, the East by 9% and the South East by 8% over the 10 year period to mid-2022, compared with the projected growth for England of 7% over the same time period.

  • The North East is projected to grow at the slowest rate, by just less than 3% over 10 years.

  • Projected change in population for local authorities ranges from a fall of almost 2% in Barrow-in-Furness to growth of 22% for Tower Hamlets over the 10 years to mid-2022.

  • The percentage of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by between one fifth and one quarter in all regions by mid-2022.

  • The number of local authorities where more than a quarter of the population are aged 65 and over is projected to increase from an estimated 24 areas in mid-2012 to 83 areas in mid-2022.

Subnational population projections use past trends to project forward the population to give an indication of the future population for 25 years from the base year. Projections are available for all local authorities in England by age and sex. They are based on the mid-2012 population estimates published on 26 June 2013. The projections are consistent with the principal 2012-based national population projections for England and were produced following a consultation held in January and February 2014. A response to this consultation has been published and is available on the ONS website. Population projections are also available for clinical commissioning groups.

Subnational population projections are used as a common framework for local area resource allocation, planning and policy making in a number of fields such as health and education.

The underlying data in this release have been published unrounded to facilitate onward processing and modelling. Users are advised that they should use these data aggregated to five year age groups or more and rounded.

The projections are not forecasts and do not take any account of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate the change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographic areas and at single years of age.

Other useful information

These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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