Coronavirus (COVID-19) roundup

Headline figures

• The number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered in England and Wales in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 783 (8.4% of all deaths in that week). Analysis | Data
• The percentage of adults in Great Britain worried about the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on their life was 69% between 25 and 28 June 2020. Analysis | Data
• The percentage of businesses that had been trading for more than the previous two weeks was 80% between 15 and 29 June 2020 (a further 6% had restarted in the last two weeks, 14% remained temporarily closed). Analysis | Data
• The estimated number of people with COVID-19 in the community in England was 25,000 at any given time between 14 and 27 June 2020 (1 in 2,200 of the community population). Analysis | Data
• Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 20.4% in April 2020 (the largest fall since the series began in 1997). Analysis | Data
• The average number of hours worked per week was 29.1 in February to April 2020 (the first time the average has dropped below 30 hours since the series began in 1992). Analysis | Data
• The volume of retail sales increased by 12.0% in May 2020 (sales remained 13.1% down on February 2020). Analysis | Data

This page is a summary of insights from our most recent analysis and will be updated as new publications are released. View analysis by theme in our roundups of the economic and social impacts of COVID-19. Sign up to our email alerts for daily updates in your inbox.

This page was last updated at 09:30 on 3 July 2020.

3 July 2020

Postponed weddings

An estimated 73,600 weddings and same-sex civil partnership ceremonies may have been postponed in England during the three-month period of lockdown restrictions between 23 March and 3 July 2020.

From 4 July, weddings in England will be able to take place with a maximum of 30 people who must maintain social distancing measures, avoid singing unless behind a screen, avoid consuming food or drink and avoid playing instruments that must be blown into.

These figures are the four-year average of the number of weddings that took place between 23 March and 3 July 2014 to 2017, plus the number of same-sex civil partnerships between the same dates in 2015 to 2018. They do not include residents who got married abroad, same-sex couples who have converted their civil partnerships into marriages following the changes in law from 10th December 2014, or civil partnerships among opposite-sex couples which have been possible from 31 December 2019.

It is estimated that 73,400 marriages have been postponed along with 300 same-sex civil partnerships (numbers have been rounded to nearest hundred).

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3 July 2020

Infections in care homes

A new study looking at the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in 9,081 care homes providing dementia care or care for older people estimates that more than half of care homes (56%) reported at least one confirmed case of COVID-19 in staff or residents. It is estimated that 20% (95% confidence interval: 19% to 21%) of care home residents and 7% (95% confidence interval: 6% to 8%) of care home staff tested positive for COVID-19, as reported by care home managers, since the start of the pandemic.

The study looked at factors affecting the rate of infection in residents and staff. For residents, we found:

• for each additional member of infected staff working at the care home, the odds of infection for residents increases by 11% (95% confidence interval: 10% to 11%)

• care homes using bank or agency nurses or carers most days or every day are more likely to have more cases in residents (odds ratio 1.58, 95% confidence interval: 1.50 to 1.65), compared with care homes that never use bank or agency staff

• care homes in which staff receive sick pay are less likely to have cases of COVID-19 in residents (odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.82 to 0.93%), compared with those care homes where staff do not receive sick pay

The study also reports factors affecting the rate of infection in staff.

For each additional member of infected staff working at a care home, the chance of infection for residents increases by 11%

Odds of care home residents testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) relative to comparison groups, England, 26 May to 20 June 2020

Notes:

1. Estimated odds ratios are adjusted for care home size, closure status for new resident admissions, timing of closure to visitors, use of other bank or agency staff, Index of Multiple Deprivation, number of care homes in provider group, whether the care home pays sick pay, care home cleaning level, staff training level, PPE usage, and frequency of staff caring for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 residents.

The study managed to conduct telephone interviews with 5,126 care home managers of 9,081 approached, all with responsibility for providing dementia care or care for the elderly between 26 May and 20 June 2020. The survey gathered information on their staff and residents and each setting.

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3 July 2020

Care home resident deaths

Almost a third of care home resident deaths since the beginning of March 2020 have involved the coronavirus (COVID-19).

Between 2 March and 12 June 2020 (registered up to 20 June 2020), there were 66, 112 deaths of care home residents, of which 19,394 involved COVID-19. This represents 29.3% of all care home resident deaths.

Between 2 March and 12 June 2020, registered up to the 20 June 2020, COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in male care home residents, accounting for 33.5% of all deaths, and the second leading cause of death in female care home residents, after Dementia and Alzheimer disease, accounting for 26.6% of all deaths.

Of deaths involving COVID-19 among care home residents, 74.9% (14,519 deaths) occurred within a care home, and 24.8% (4,810 deaths) occurred within a hospital.

But since mid-April 2020, we have seen a slowdown in both the total number of deaths and deaths involving COVID-19 in care home residents.

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3 July 2020

Workers in Great Britain gradually return to work

Great Britain appears to be learning to live with a ‘new normal’ following the easing of lockdown restrictions.

The proportion of working adults returning to their workplace has been increasing slightly over the past few weeks, from 41% two weeks ago, to 44% last week and 49% in the past seven days.

Almost a third of adults (29%) who had worked in the last seven days said they had done so exclusively at home – a decrease from 33% last week.

In tandem with the increase in returnees to the workplace, there appears to have been an improvement in wellbeing in the UK.

Of those saying their well-being has been affected, the proportion of people feeling stressed or anxious has fallen from to 55% compared with 66% last week. The proportion of people who reported that they were feeling bored, declined from 60% to 45%.

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3 July 2020

Impact on financial accounts

The early assessment of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the UK’s financial accounts article focuses on the balance sheet of the financial account in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020.

Most of the early impacts of the pandemic can be seen in the financial accounts balance sheets, which detail the estimated market value of institutional sectors’ financial assets and liabilities. Balance sheets are largely affected by transactions and price changes.

Increased investor concerns of the coronavirus pandemic led to increased market volatility, and this was the main driver in all sectors’ steep, unprecedented falls in the value of listed shares in their balance sheets. This was the biggest fall since records began in 1987.

Private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) were vulnerable to falling share prices because they comprise of sectors that were most negatively impacted by lockdown restrictions in the UK and overseas, such as airlines, leisure and hotels. The substantial change in the market value of shares is almost entirely because of price changes that knocked £401 billion off the worth of PNFCs’ listed shares.

In Quarter 1 2020, the impact of the pandemic has been different to other financial crises in the sense that there has been a reduction in both supply and demand.

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2 July 2020

COVID-19 Infection Survey

The decrease in the number of people in England testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) is continuing to level off.

There has been a downward trend in the number of people in private residential households contracting the virus since the beginning of the study on 26 April 2020. Recent results indicate the downward trend has now levelled off.

Our latest estimates for 14 June to 27 June 2020; suggest an average of 25,000 people in England had COVID-19, this equates to 0.04% of the population.

As of 29 June 2020, 6.3% of individuals aged 16 years and over tested positive for antibodies to COVID-19. This equates to 1 in 16 or 2.8 million people in England.

One way the body fights infections like COVID-19 is by producing small particles in the blood called antibodies. It takes between two and three weeks for the body to make enough antibodies to fight the infection, but once a person recovers, antibodies remain in the blood at low levels. This is what helps to prevent individuals from getting the same infection again. We try to measure the presence of antibodies to work out who has had COVID-19 in the past.

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2 July 2020

Mortgage approvals fall significantly in April

The number of mortgage approvals in April 2020 in England and Wales fell to 80% of those issued in February 2020. Mortgage approvals then continued to fall in May to a new series low, almost 90% below the February level.

In May, there were 9,300 approvals, around a third of the number issued during the financial crisis of 2008, and the lowest since records began in 1993.

The government issued guidance on 26 March 2020 to delay property moves and implement restrictions on property viewings.

This guidance, which has since been updated in England and Wales, appears to have had an impact on the numbers of property sales, most notably mortgage transactions.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published an article today bringing together a number of different housing market statistics from a range of producers. Most of the data sources suggest that there was little change in housing transactions up to March 2020, with a fall in April, coinciding with the first full month of the lockdown.

There are many more official statistics published across the UK on a range of housing topics, which are not included here. These can be found from individual government department or devolved administration websites, the GOV.UK statistics release calendar or the UK Housing and Planning Statistics Landscape.

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2 July 2020

Increase in shopping footfall

Daily footfall at shopping destinations saw a substantial increase on 15 June 2020, when some non-essential shops were first allowed to reopen in England.

Our latest indicators for the UK economy and society provide information on the economic impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK. Figures provided by Springboard measure the volume of footfall in the UK, compared with the same day the previous year.

In the two weeks from 16 March 2020, the start of lockdown, footfall in high streets and shopping centres declined below 20% of its level the same time last year.

Footfall gradually recovered across April to June, with a large upward movement occurring on 15 June, when many types of non-essential shops and businesses were allowed to reopen in England.

Retail park footfall followed a different trend to high streets and shopping centres, with a less severe initial drop, and a greater recovery through April and May. This reflects that many essential stores are often at retail parks.

Footfall saw a substantial increase on 15 June, when some non-essential shops were first allowed to reopen in England

Volume of footfall, year-on-year percentage change between footfall on the same day, UK, 1 March to 28 June 2020

Source: Springboard and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Notes:

1. Many essential shops were allowed to open on 12 June 2020 in Northern Ireland and 22 June in Wales. In Scotland, some non-essential shops were allowed to reopen from 29 June, and more from 13 and 15 July.
2. Prime Minister's announcement refers to the advisory announcement on 16 March 2020 to avoid non-essential travel, bars, restaurants and other indoor leisure venues, and to work from home if possible.

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2 July 2020

Economic impact of COVID-19

The latest publication on Coronavirus and the economic impacts on the UK provides indicators and analysis from the Business Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Survey (BICS). This has included capturing businesses’ responses on how their trading status, workforce, UK supply chains and stock levels have been affected by the coronavirus.

Of all responding businesses, 80% had been trading for more than the last two weeks, while 6% had started trading again within the last two weeks after a pause in trading.

Of the businesses continuing to trade, 23% of the workforce had been furloughed under the terms of the UK government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS). The Arts, entertainment and recreation sector had the largest proportion of furloughed workers, at 70%, and 6% of the workforce have returned from furlough leave in the last two weeks.

Top-ups are being provided to furloughed workers, on top of the CJRS payments, by 41% of businesses that have a proportion of their workforce furloughed.

Of businesses that were continuing to trade and that were using logistics services, 86% reported that distribution demands had been met in the last two weeks.

Of all businesses continuing to trade, 11% reported that stock levels are higher than normal, while 17% reported that stock levels were lower than normal.

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30 June 2020

Deaths involving COVID-19

Up to 19 June 2020, there were 49,371 deaths registered in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) (27,185 men and 22,186 women).

The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been among people aged 65 years and over (44,096 out of 49,371).

Our data are based on deaths registered in England and Wales and include all deaths where “COVID-19” was mentioned on death certificates. We have published a summary of where you can find data on COVID-19 infection rates and deaths for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The total number of deaths in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 9,339, the lowest of the year to date.

The number of deaths was also below the five-year average for the first time since the week ending 13 March (Week 11) (the first week in which COVID-19 deaths were registered).

By setting, the highest number of excess deaths (deaths above the five-year average) was seen in private homes for the fourth week running. Care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments recorded fewer deaths than the average for this time of year.

The number of deaths fell below the five-year average for the first time since the week ending 13 March 2020

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 19 June 2020

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30 June 2020

Consumer trends

Household spending in the UK decreased between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020. The growth of negative 2.9%, when adjusted for inflation, was the largest fall since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 1979.

The consumer trends publication provides household final consumption expenditure information for the UK, a measure of economic growth. These estimates are subject to more uncertainty than usual because of the challenges faced in collecting the data during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The suspension of data collection for the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF) and International Passenger Survey (IPS) on 16 March impacted two important data sources for these figures.

The largest negative contribution to the decline in household spending came from expenditure on Transport, including motor vehicles. There were also falls for Restaurants and hotels and Clothing and footwear. There was, however, an increase of spending on Food and non-alcoholic beverages.

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30 June 2020

GDP, January to March 2020

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms fell by 2.2% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarterly estimate; this is now the joint largest fall in UK GDP since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 1979.

The GDP quarterly national accounts release captures the first direct effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The contraction in GDP reflects the imposing of public health restrictions and voluntary social distancing put in place in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The services, production and construction sectors provided a negative contribution to growth in the output approach to GDP in Quarter 1 2020, with services output falling by a record 2.3% in the latest quarter.

The expenditure approach to GDP captured falls in both private consumption and government consumption, alongside a net trade deficit. The decline in government consumption in Quarter 1 2020 reflects falls in health and education expenditure. The initial impact of the coronavirus on government healthcare consumption was mixed, with increased activity in some areas (calls to NHS 111) and reduced activity in other areas (elective operations and accident and emergency).

The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) shows that a greater stringency of lockdown is associated with lower GDP growth in Quarter 1 2020. When compared internationally, it implies that the size of the contraction in the UK economy in Quarter 1 2020 was broadly in line with what might have been expected, given the policies that were in place in the UK in Quarter 1 2020.

Greater stringency of lockdowns is associated with lower GDP growth in Quarter 1 2020

Selection of countries, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020

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30 June 2020

Investment, saving and borrowing

The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has brought major changes to the financial account in the UK’s Institutional sector accounts in the first quarter (Jan to Mar) of 2020.

A great deal of volatility was observed in individual financial instruments on the balance sheet of the financial account.

UK monetary financial institutions (MFIs) saw record increases in deposits placed with them on the quarter of £819.6 billion as investors switched to safer investments. In part, these deposits have been funded by the issuance of new loans by MFIs. They recorded their highest rise ever in short-term loans of £304.8 billion. This provides evidence of a “dash for cash”.

In the non-financial accounts, UK net borrowing from the rest of the world increased. General government saw an increase in its net borrowing position to negative 4.4% of gross domestic product (GDP). The increase in borrowing was the largest since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2013 and was particularly driven by the introduction of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) late in the quarter.

A fall in private non-financial corporations’ gross operating surplus of £5 billion was seen in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020 as a fall in profits was seen across almost all industries.

The quarterly sector accounts also show that the households’ saving ratio increased to 8.6% in the latest quarter, compared with 6.6% in the previous quarter. This came as households reduced their total consumption spending.

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30 June 2020

Imports and exports

In Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, total trade exports (£159.5 billion) decreased to their lowest levels since Quarter 1 2018 and imports (£160.7 billion) decreased to their lowest level since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 as the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic took hold and countries introduced lockdowns.

Balance of payments, UK: January to March 2020 presents a measure of cross-border transactions between the UK and rest of the world.

There is evidence of the coronavirus starting to impact on global supply chains in Quarter 1 2020, with many businesses reporting notable falls in trade in goods during March 2020. Trade in manufactured goods was significantly impacted, with declines for both imports and exports.

There were also large decreases for imports and exports of the trade in travel services, as governments around the world introduced travel bans to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

The primary income balance deficit – which records income the UK receives and pays on financial and other assets, along with compensation of employees – widened by £2.4 billion to £13.6 billion in Quarter 1 2020. There was a larger fall in UK earnings on foreign investments (credits) than the fall in payments to foreign investors on their UK investments (debits), as other countries entered lockdowns earlier and businesses aimed to maintain cash buffers by reducing or cancelling dividend payments.

The trade and primary income figures both affect the UK’s current account balance. The UK current account deficit widened to £21.1 billion in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020, or 3.8% of gross domestic product (GDP). This was also affected by erratic movements in the trading of precious metals, especially non-monetary gold, in the final quarter of 2019 and more subdued trading in Quarter 1 2020.

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29 June 2020

People who are shielding

An estimated 2.2 million people in England were advised to shield by the government, having been identified as being clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) to the coronavirus (COVID-19).

Our latest survey results from 9 to 18 June 2020 reveal that almost half (46%) of CEV adults have not left the house at all since receiving the advice. Video or telephone calls with family and friends, prescription deliveries and food deliveries or food boxes are the most common things that have helped them continue shielding during this period.

More than one-third (37%) of people asked to shield report a worsening in their mental health. This rises to around half (49%) among 50- to 59-year-olds, compared with 26% for those aged 75 years and over. Women are more likely than men to report a worsening in their mental health, regardless of age.

Meanwhile, those currently receiving treatment for mental health problems were more likely to report their mental health being slightly worse or much worse since receiving shielding advice (68% compared with 28% of those who had never previously received treatment).

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User requested data

We have been responding to data requests from the public, media and government during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Responses are published in our list of user requested data.

Our subnational data page offers advice to anyone doing their own analysis on the impact of the coronavirus. It contains useful links to geographic boundaries and datasets such as population by local area.

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