1. Other pages in this release
Other commentary from the latest labour market data can be found on these pages:
Back to table of contents2. Main points
The following information is for the period from November 2023 to January 2024.
Annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.1%, and annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.6%.
Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 1.8%, and for total pay was 1.4%.
Annual average regular earnings growth for the public sector was 5.9%, which is not as high as it has been in recent periods but remains relatively strong; for the private sector this was 6.1%, with growth last lower than this in May to July 2022 (6.0%).
The wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector saw the largest annual regular growth rate at 7.2%; the manufacturing sector and finance and business services sector both followed at 6.8% and 6.6%, respectively.
The estimates in this bulletin come from a survey of businesses. It is not possible to survey every business each month, so these statistics are estimates based on a sample, not precise figures. Average weekly earnings (AWE) for any given month is the ratio of estimated total pay for the whole economy, divided by the total number of employees. As a result, AWE is not a measure of rates of pay and can be affected by changes in the composition of an enterprise's workforce.
3. Analysis of average weekly earnings
Figure 1: Average weekly earnings for both total and regular pay showed a steady increase over the long term
Average weekly earnings in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, January 2000 to January 2024
Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 1: Average weekly earnings for both total and regular pay showed a steady increase over the long term
Image .csv .xlsAverage weekly earnings (AWE) were estimated at £672 for total earnings and £627 for regular earnings in January 2024. Figure 1 shows that average weekly earnings have steadily increased over the long term.
Figure 2: Annual growth in both total pay and regular pay (excluding bonuses) remains strong, but is below the record growth rates seen in recent months
Average weekly earnings annual growth rates in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, January to March 2001 to November 2023 to January 2024
Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 2: Annual growth in both total pay and regular pay (excluding bonuses) remains strong, but is below the record growth rates seen in recent months
Image .csv .xlsThe annual growth for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.1% in November 2023 to January 2024. Annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.6% in November 2023 to January 2024.
Our headline growth rate is the annual change between the latest three-month period and the same three months one year ago. This means that, in some areas, the latest months are currently compared with low base periods before the high pay rises were given over the last year, which are partly a reaction to high inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. Looking at annualised growth rates over the short term can help assess more recent earnings trends. If we compare the latest three months with the three months that preceded them, and then annualise this growth rate, nominal regular average weekly earnings grew by 3.5%.
This shows that if we look at growth over the short term, it is not as strong as when comparing over a full 12-month period when regular earnings grew by 6.1%. We will continue to publish our headline estimate using the annual year-on-year growth rate, but this provides further context on shorter-term changes for users.
In real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)), total real pay was 1.4% in November 2023 to January 2024, the same as the previous three-month period. Regular real pay was 1.8%; it was last higher in July to September 2021, when it was 2.2%.
Figure 3: Real earnings show a positive annual growth rate for January 2024
Real average weekly earnings single-month annual growth rates in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, and CPIH annual rate, January 2001 to January 2024
Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey, and Consumer price inflation from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 3: Real earnings show a positive annual growth rate for January 2024
Image .csv .xlsAs inflation has reduced over the past few months, we are now seeing real growth rates increase on the year. Figure 3 shows a comparison of monthly real total and regular pay growth rates and monthly inflation. For November 2023 to January 2024, CPIH was an average of 4.2%.
Our headline measure of inflation is CPIH. However, we also publish our supplementary Real average weekly earnings using consumer price inflation (CPI) dataset, excluding owner occupiers' housing costs. Using CPI real earnings, in November 2023 to January 2024, total pay was 1.6%. Growth was last higher in July to September 2021, when it was 3.0%. Regular pay was 2.0%; growth was last higher in July to September 2021, when it was 2.2%.
The Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin also provides additional insights into the estimate of growth in median and mean pay, and the two data sources generally trend well for mean total pay. A more timely estimate of median pay is also provided but is subject to revisions.
However, there will be differences between the two data sources because of timing and definitional differences, as set out in our Comparison of labour market data sources methodology.
Sector and industry
Figure 4: The private and public sector are showing similar growth rates
Average weekly earnings annual growth rates for total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay by public and private sector in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, January to March 2001 to November 2023 to January 2024
Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 4: The private and public sector are showing similar growth rates
Image .csv .xlsAnnual average regular earnings growth for the public sector was 5.9% in November 2023 to January 2024; not as high as in recent periods but remaining relatively strong (Figure 4). For the private sector this was 6.1%, and growth was last lower than this in May to July 2022 (6.0%). Annual average total earnings growth for the private and public sector was 5.7% and 5.8%, respectively, in November 2023 to January 2024.
Figure 5: In the latest period, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector saw the largest annual regular pay growth rate
Average weekly earnings annual growth rates for regular pay by sector in Great Britain, seasonally adjusted, November 2017 to January 2018 to November 2023 to January 2024
Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 5: In the latest period, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector saw the largest annual regular pay growth rate
Image .csv .xlsIn November 2023 to January 2024, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector saw the largest annual regular pay growth at 7.2%. The manufacturing sector, and finance and business services sector both followed at 6.8% and 6.6%, respectively (Figure 5).
More about economy, business and jobs
- All Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis, summarised in our economy, business and jobs roundup.
- Explore the latest trends in employment, prices and trade in our economic dashboard.
- View all economic data.
4. Average weekly earnings data
Average weekly earnings
Dataset EARN01 | Released 12 March 2024
Average weekly earnings at sector level headline estimates, Great Britain, monthly, seasonally adjusted. Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.
Average weekly earnings by sector
Dataset EARN02 | Released 12 March 2024
Average weekly earnings at sector level including manufacturing, finance and services, Great Britain, monthly, non-seasonally adjusted. Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.
Average weekly earnings by industry
Dataset EARN03 | Released 12 March 2024
Average weekly earnings at industry level including manufacturing, construction and energy, Great Britain, monthly, non-seasonally adjusted. Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.
Real average weekly earnings using consumer price inflation
Dataset X09 | Released 12 March 2024
Average weekly earnings for the whole economy, for total and regular pay, in real terms (adjusted for consumer price inflation), UK, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
5. Glossary
Average Weekly Earnings
As explained in Section 2: Earnings of our Guide to labour market statistics methodology, average weekly earnings (AWE) is the lead monthly measure of average weekly earnings per employee. It is calculated using information based on the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey (MWSS), which samples around 9,000 employers in Great Britain.
AWE for any given month is the ratio of estimated total pay for the whole economy, divided by the total number of employees. As a result, AWE is not a measure of rates of pay and can be affected by changes in the composition of an enterprise's workforce. They do not, for example, adjust for changes in the proportion of the workforce who work full time or part time, or other compositional changes within the workforce. The estimates do not include earnings of self-employed people.
Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonus payments) and regular pay (which excludes bonus payments). Estimates are available in both nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) and real terms (adjusted for inflation).
Estimates of pay growth are also published using HM Revenue and Customs' (HMRC) data in the Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin.
The HMRC estimates are presented in median pay terms, but they also include mean pay, as does AWE. There are some differences between the sources, most notably that the HMRC estimates include arrears payments and any redundancy payments that are made through payroll. Further detail is provided in our Comparison of labour market data sources methodology.
Bonus
A bonus is a form of reward or recognition granted by an employer in addition to basic pay. When an employee receives a bonus payment, there is no expectation or assumption that the bonus will be used to cover any specific expense. The value and timing of a bonus payment can be at the discretion of the employer or stipulated in workplace agreements.
Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs
As of 21 March 2017, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), as detailed in our Consumer Price Inflation quality and methodology information (QMI), became our lead measure of inflation. It is our most comprehensive measure of UK consumer price inflation.
Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
The Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey (MWSS) is a survey through which we collect information on wages and salaries. It is distributed monthly to around 9,000 employers, covering around 12.8 million employees.
A more detailed glossary is available.
Back to table of contents6. Measuring the data
This section provides more detail around the methodology of the survey. Further information on this is available in our Average weekly earnings quality and methodology information (QMI).
The survey response rate was 83% in January 2024.
Real earnings
Real average weekly earnings (AWE) are calculated as non-seasonally adjusted AWE (shown in our accompanying EARN02: Average weekly earnings by sector dataset) divided by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), which is our preferred measure of consumer price inflation (as shown in our CPIH Index time series L522). The ratio is then referenced as an index with 2015 equals 100, and seasonally adjusted.
We also publish our accompanying X09: Real average weekly earnings using consumer price inflation (CPI) dataset for the whole economy and for both total and regular pay. Our recommended measure of CPI is CPIH, and our headline estimates using this measure are found in our accompanying EARN01: Average weekly earnings dataset. These data have been compiled using the CPI as a supplementary dataset to view alongside the headline estimates produced using the CPIH.
Arrears payment
Pay award arrears are collected separately on the questionnaire; this specifically covers earnings arising from a backdated pay increase, not late payment of overtime or bonuses. Arrears payments are reflected in estimates at the time they were paid, and not in the period they are awarded for. Therefore, backseries are not revised. The AWE headline estimates exclude arrears payments.
Seasonal adjustment
Total pay, bonus pay and regular pay (excluding bonuses) for each sector (a total of 27 series) are seasonally adjusted using X13-ARIMA. Percentage changes are then derived from the seasonally adjusted average pay series.
Each of the 27 series is seasonally adjusted separately, to ensure the optimum seasonal adjustment of each series. The result of this is that relationships that hold in the unadjusted series do not necessarily hold for the seasonally adjusted series. For example, before seasonal adjustment, regular pay plus bonus pay equalled total pay, whereas after seasonal adjustment, they are not necessarily equal.
When there is an exceptionally large change in the series, this can lead to larger differences between regular pay plus bonus pay, and total pay. We saw this in March 2021 and 2020, when the bonus payments pattern changed during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Consequently, the direct seasonal adjustment method, which allows for evolving seasonality, caused a larger than normal difference. This is supported by other similar instances, such as in January and February 2009.
Where one-off shocks are present in the data, these are taken into account during the seasonal adjustment process. This was applied in June 2023 to the public sector bonus payments.
In line with international guidance, we annually review the seasonal adjustment parameters and open up the whole time series for revision, as outlined in our Average weekly earnings QMI. This was last reviewed in September 2023 and led to revisions to the historical AWE time series, extending back throughout the entire time series.
Revisions
AWE are generally published on a provisional basis around six to seven weeks after the end of the month in question, although sometimes a week later in the months following Christmas and Easter. The unadjusted estimates are finalised the following month (10 to 11 weeks after the end of the reference period). Seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to further revisions at later dates (see the Revisions Policy subsection of our Average weekly earnings QMI).
Composition of the workforce
The AWE reflects changes to the composition of the workforce. In AWE, all other things being equal, an increase in the relative number of employees in a high-paying industry will cause average earnings to rise. This is because the mix of jobs would have changed so that there are more high-paying jobs. Conversely, an increase in the relative number of employees in low-paying industries would cause average earnings to fall.
This effect is sometimes called the employment contribution to earnings growth, as opposed to the wages contribution, which reflects changes in earnings at individual companies, such as pay rises, promotions and changes in the composition of individual company workforces. In addition to AWE growth, we publish separate estimates of the wage and employment contributions to AWE growth in supplementary tables called the AWE decomposition.
Base and compositional effects during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period
During the pandemic period, interpreting average earnings data was difficult. We explain the complexities of interpreting these data in our How COVID-19 has impacted the Average Weekly Earnings data blog post. There were temporary factors that we refer to as base and compositional effects.
The base effect refers to comparing two periods with different circumstances. Throughout the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, different scenarios have affected the base effect. More information on base effects can be found in our Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: May 2022 bulletin.
The compositional effect means pay growth has been affected by a changing composition of employee jobs, which during the coronavirus pandemic had increased average pay. The latest data show that the composition effect is now at more normal levels, and we are no longer seeing the excessive levels we saw during periods of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021. For more details on the impact of compositional effects on wage growth, see our How furlough and changes in the employee workforce have affected earnings growth during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, UK: 2020 to 2021 article.
Following the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the change in pay growth was heavily affected by a changing composition of employee jobs, where we saw a fall in the number and proportion of lower-paid employee jobs. This changing composition naturally increased average pay and should be taken into consideration when interpreting average pay growth. Changes in the profile of employee jobs in the economy will affect average pay growth. A decrease in employee numbers in jobs that have lower pay can have an upward effect on average pay, and the other way around.
More information on the compositional effect on the data is available in Section 10: Measuring the data of the Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: May 2022 bulletin.
Other
For more information about some of the main differences between our data sources, see our Comparison of labour market data sources methodology.
Sampling variability for average weekly earnings single-month growth rates in percentage points is also available in our previous Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: April 2021 bulletin.
Back to table of contents7. Strengths and limitations
Information on the strengths and limitations of this bulletin is available in:
our Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: April 2021 bulletin
the Government Statistical Service Income and earnings interactive dashboard
9. Cite this statistical bulletin
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 12 March 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: March 2024