UK trade: October 2022

• The value of goods imports decreased by £1.4 billion (2.6%) in October 2022, however when removing the effect of inflation, imports of goods increased by £0.9 billion (2.3%).

• Goods imports from non-EU countries fell by £3.4 billion (11.6%), primarily because of falling gas prices in October 2022 after peaking in September.

• Goods imports from the EU rose by £2.0 billion (8.3%) in October 2022, following a subdued September.

• The value of goods exports decreased by £0.7 billion (2.2%) in October 2022, with exports to both EU and non-EU countries falling; after removing the effect of inflation, exports of goods decreased by £1.3 billion (4.7%).

• The trade in goods and services deficit, excluding precious metals, widened slightly by £0.1 billion to £23.9 billion in the three months to October 2022; however after removing the effect of inflation, the deficit narrowed by £5.1 billion to £9.8 billion.

About this bulletin

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Official estimates of price inflation have risen strongly in recent months, and chained volume measures data, which we refer to as having the effect of inflation removed, can be found in our UK trade publication tables and UK trade time series.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine beginning 24 February 2022, the UK government imposed a range of economic sanctions on Russia, resulting in historic lows of trade with Russia. Our article, The impact of sanctions on UK trade with Russia discusses the effect of the sanctions applied on UK trade in goods.

EU imports

In January 2022, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on imports from the EU to Great Britain (GB). This followed a similar data collection change in January 2021 for data on exports of goods to the EU from GB.

Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail on the discontinuity between the two compilation methods.

We will be applying adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for the period January to December 2021 to reflect the data collection change. These adjustments will be applied to Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade statistics in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, with revised estimates incorporated into GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2022 on 22 December 2022 and in UK trade: November 2022 on 13 January 2023.

We intend to publish a short article summarising these adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021. This article will be published alongside our UK trade bulletin on 13 January 2023.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to GB. Full customs controls were introduced in January 2022, as such, July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to GB. It is too early to determine any effect of SCC on import data in 2022.

We will keep users informed of any further changes in data collection.

Total imports of goods decreased by £1.4 billion (2.6%) in October 2022, because of falling imports from non-EU countries, partly offset by an increase in imports from the EU. The decrease in imports from non-EU countries was linked to falling gas prices in October 2022, while the increase in imports from the EU in October follows a subdued September.

Total exports of goods decreased by £0.7 billion (2.2%) in October 2022, with exports to both EU and non-EU countries falling (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Imports from the EU were £0.1 billion higher than from non-EU countries and exports to the EU were £0.2 billion higher than to non-EU countries in October 2022. This is the first time since April 2022 that both imports from and exports to the EU have been higher than non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Imports of goods from non-EU countries decreased sharply in October 2022

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, October 2019 to October 2022

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Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection methods for EU trade in January 2021 and January 2022. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail.

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The value of goods imports from non-EU countries has decreased by £3.4 billion in October 2022 following a previous increase of £3.5 billion in August. This has been driven by the impact of gas prices.

When removing the effect of inflation, total imports of goods increased by £0.9 billion (2.3%) in October 2022, because of a £1.2 billion (5.9%) increase in imports from the EU, while imports from non-EU countries decreased by £0.3 billion (1.7%) (Figure 2).

Similarly, when removing the effect of inflation, total exports of goods decreased by £1.3 billion (4.7%) in October 2022, with exports to both EU and non-EU countries decreasing by £0.8 billion (5.6%) and £0.5 billion (3.9%) respectively.

Figure 2: The value of goods imports from non-EU countries has decreased in October 2022, following a peak in August

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, EU and non-EU, October 2019 to October 2022

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Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection methods for EU trade in January 2021 and January 2022. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail.

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Imports

Imports from the EU increased in October 2022 across multiple commodities. The largest increases were a £0.7 billion rise in imports of chemicals, a £0.6 billion increase in miscellaneous manufactures and a £0.4 billion increase in fuel imports (Figure 3). The increase in chemical imports from the EU was because of increased organic chemical imports from Ireland, as well as higher imports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products from Germany and Denmark.

Imports of fuels from non-EU countries decreased by £3.6 billion in October 2022, continuing to fall after peaking in August. This decrease was driven by lower gas imports from Qatar, Peru, and Norway. Imports of material manufactures from non-EU countries rose by £0.4 billion, partially offsetting the decrease in fuel imports.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from non-EU countries decreased in October 2022, with fuel imports continuing to fall after peaking in August

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, October 2020 to October 2022

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Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection methods for EU imports from January 2022. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail.

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The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries decreased substantially in October 2022, because of a decrease in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas. However, when the effect of inflation is removed fuel imports from non-EU countries increased slightly in October (Figure 4).

Exports

The decrease in exports to the EU was driven by a £0.8 billion decrease in exports of fuels (Figure 5). October 2022 was the third month in a row where exports of fuels to EU countries fell. This is likely because many EU countries have reached the gas storage quotas that was set by the European council in June. Exports of machinery and transport equipment increased by £0.2 billion.

The slight fall in exports to non-EU countries was driven by a £0.7 billion decrease in exports of material manufactures, along with decreases of £0.1 billion in exports of both chemicals and machinery and transport equipment. This was largely offset by a £0.8 billion increase in fuel exports. The fall in material manufactures was driven by decreasing exports of non-ferrous metals to India, the United States, Hong Kong and Japan. The increase in fuels was because of an increase in exports of crude oil to China.

Figure 5: Exports of goods decreased in October 2022, driven by decreasing exports of fuels and material manufactures

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, October 2020 to October 2022

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Notes:

1. Caution should be taken when interpreting these data as HM Revenue and Customs changed the collection methods for EU exports from January 2021. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail.

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Early estimates suggest imports of services decreased by £0.1 billion to £19.0 billion in October 2022 and exports of services increased by £0.1 billion to £31.7 billion (Figure 6). Monthly figures for trade in services for October 2022 are forecasted from Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022 data, using additional data sources. View our UK trade QMI for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

As is the case with trade in goods, imports and exports of services have been affected by rising prices in recent months. When removing the effect of inflation, imports of services decreased to £16.6 billion and exports of services increased to £27.5 billion in October 2022.

Figure 6: Both imports and exports of services increased in October 2022

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, October 2019 to October 2022

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IHS Markit's purchasing manager's index for October reported a decline in service sector activity. While hospitality focused service providers were again the hardest hit, financial services also saw a notable decrease in activity. Meanwhile, both average input costs paid by service providers and average prices charged for services were reported to have continued to increase in October.

Total imports of goods increased by £1.0 billion (0.6%) in the three months to October 2022, compared with the three months to July 2022 (Table 2). Imports from non-EU countries increased during this time, while imports from EU countries decreased. Exports of goods over the same period decreased by £0.6 billion (0.6%) with exports decreasing to both EU and non-EU countries.

Imports of services increased by £0.8 billion (1.4%) in the three months to October 2022 compared with the three months to July 2022, and exports of services over the same period increased by £2.3 billion (2.4%).

The total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, slightly widened by £0.1 billion to £23.9 billion in the three months to October 2022, but has remained relatively unchanged since April 2022 (Figure 7). However, when removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £5.1 billion to £9.8 billion in the three months to October 2022.

The trade in goods deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £1.6 billion to £61.6 billion in the three months to October 2022, while early estimates suggest the trade in services surplus widened by £1.5 billion to £37.7 billion.

Explore the 2021 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it or using the drop-down menu.

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2021 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

Download the data

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Download the data

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Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for October 2022.

HM Revenue and Customs corrections to the Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) have identified an error in the Overseas Trade in Goods (OTS) data used to compile the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) UK trade statistics. A small number of import customs declarations relating to goods transferred out of customs warehouses into UK free circulation were erroneously excluded from the OTS, with UK imports from January 2021 to September 2022 affected. More detail on the scale of the error and main affected chapters is provided in HMRC's Corrections to the Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics (OTS) notice.

The correction will be applied to ONS UK trade statistics in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, with revised estimates incorporated into GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2022 on 22 December 2022 and in UK trade: November 2022 on 13 January 2023.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a "real" measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (the base year).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) data impact

Because of the challenges of data collection during the coronavirus pandemic, we have experienced challenges around the level of survey and data returns for this trade release.

Data sources

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. IPS data are being used with a small adjustment to account for the reduction in sample size, and we continue to quality assure our estimates using complimentary data sources. However, we advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK trade QMI for more detail.

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source. We have worked closely with HMRC to prepare for the change in collection of customs data, which occurred at the end of the EU exit transition period. View further information in our article Impact of EU exit on the collection and compilation of UK trade statistics.

In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View more information about the Office for National Statistics' (ONS's) recording of non-monetary gold. Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices. This means they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

ONS UK trade figures are produced on a country of dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country of origin basis as is used by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used, and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data is taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and, as part of our engagement with the Office for Statistics Regulation team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical and definitional differences. More information on trade in goods asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), while analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK trade QMI.