GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2026

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following a revised growth of 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025.

• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was caused by an increase in all three sectors, with the largest contribution from the services sector, which grew by 0.8%.

• GDP is estimated to have increased by a revised 1.3% annually in 2025 (previously 1.4%), following an unrevised growth of 1.0% in 2024.

• Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is up by 0.7% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In line with the updated National Accounts Revisions Policy, this bulletin includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 2024 to Quarter 1 2026; there have been small positive and negative 0.1 percentage point revisions to growth across 2025 because of updated source data and seasonal adjustment.

• Real household disposable income per head decreased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, following a rise of 1.2% in Quarter 4 2025.

• The household saving ratio decreased this quarter by 0.7 percentage points to 8.9%, driven by a fall in the contribution of non-pension saving.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following a revised growth of 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 (Figure 1).

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 2024 to Quarter 1 2026, as a result of updated source data. These revisions include incorporating Value Added Tax (VAT) data for the first time for Quarter 4 2025, and a review of seasonal adjustment. There have been small positive and negative 0.1 percentage point revisions from Quarter 2 to Quarter 4 2025.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Our recently published analysis shows that the mean absolute revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later is, on average, positive or negative 0.24 percentage points. Revisions are made when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. View more information in our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article.

The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. Read more detail on uncertainty in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026, and is up by 0.7% compared with the same quarter a year ago. See Section 6: Real GDP per head and real household disposable income per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.7% in Quarter 1 2026, and is now 4.4% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 3.5% in Quarter 1 2026, which was mainly caused by household expenditure, gross capital formation, general government, and exports (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% in 2025, revised down from the previous estimate of 1.4% (Figure 3). Growth in 2024 is unrevised at 1.0%, with the three approaches showing growth in the range of 0.8% to 1.2%.

There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards, until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). There are various reasons for this uncertainty, and these are further discussed in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.6% in the latest quarter, following a revised growth of 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, which was previously estimated at 0.2%. Overall, there were increases in 15 out of 20 subsectors of GDP in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026.

The services sector increased by 0.8%, while the construction and production sectors both increased by 0.2%.

From 2024 to 2026, the output approach to measuring GDP saw revisions for the following reasons:

• some businesses replied late and updated their Monthly Business Survey (MBS) returns, along with other source data updates

• Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 4 2025 were incorporated for the first time

• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Services

Services output increased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, following an increase of 0.1% in Quarter 4 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) grew by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, while consumer-facing services grew by 0.7%.

Figure 4 shows that 11 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to services growth in Quarter 1 2026. The largest positive contributors to growth were the professional, scientific and technical activities, and wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsectors.

Professional, scientific and technical activities grew by 2.3%, with increases mainly in advertising and market research, and activities of head offices; management consultancy activities. 

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 1.8%, with a growth of 2.5% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. There was also a growth of 1.4% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. For more information, view our Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2026 bulletin.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 1 2026 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 1.2%. This was mainly because of declines in employment activities, and rental and leasing activities.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 1 2026, following a 1.2% increase in the previous quarter. Production output is estimated to be 0.1% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in production output in the latest quarter was mainly because of a 0.7% growth in manufacturing, as well as a 1.2% growth in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply. These growths were partially offset by falls in mining and quarrying, which fell by 4.7%, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, which fell by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2026.

The manufacturing growth in Quarter 1 2026 saw positive contributions from 7 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors (Figure 5). The largest positive contributions to this growth were the manufacture of transport equipment, which increased by 5.4%, driven by a 10.2% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This is a base effect because of the comparison with Quarter 4 2025, including October 2025, when the industry had not recovered fully from the effects of a cyber incident in August 2025.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in Quarter 1 2026 but is 1.6% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. Repair and maintenance grew by 3.3% over the period but new work fell by 2.1%. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.3%. In new work, the largest negative contributor was private new housing, which fell by 3.1%.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, which was mainly caused by increases in gross capital formation: other, household consumption and government consumption (Figure 6).

Within gross capital formation: other, the largest contribution was from acquisitions less disposals of valuables, which increased by £4.6 billion between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 and Quarter 1 of 2026. This component is largely made up of non-monetary gold, which also appears within net trade, so the effect is gross domestic product (GDP)-neutral.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was a 0.6% increase in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 1 2026, unrevised from the first estimate. Household consumption is now estimated to be up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Within household consumption in the latest quarter, growth was caused by:

• miscellaneous

• restaurants and hotels

• household goods and services

Net tourism made a positive contribution to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no effect on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.4% in the latest quarter.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 1.3% in Quarter 1 2026, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.4%.

Real government consumption is now estimated to be 2.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increases in public administration and defence, and health and social care.

Revisions in government consumption partly reflect revised source data, and updates to our seasonal adjustment model for public administration and defence, and health and social care.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is now estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 1 2026, revised up from the first estimated fall of 0.6%. GFCF is now estimated to be 1.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The main drivers of the growth are because of increases in other buildings and structures, transport equipment, and other machinery and equipment.

Revisions in GFCF and business investment mainly reflect the incorporation of updated source data received since the first estimate. The upward revision to GFCF is primarily driven by higher estimates for government investment in buildings and software, alongside increased private sector investment in buildings and transport equipment. These revisions reflect replacement of forecast data with more comprehensive survey returns and updated administrative information. As a result, both GFCF and business investment are now estimated to have grown more strongly in Quarter 1 than previously reported. 

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in the latest quarter, and is now estimated to be 1.3% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Excluding the alignment adjustments, early estimates show that chained volume inventories increased by £4,601 million in Quarter 1 2026 (Table 2).

Net trade

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 1.9% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2026. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 1.0% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2026 (Figure 7).

Export volumes increased by 0.2% in the latest quarter and are now 0.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The increase in the latest quarter was mainly caused by a 1.2% growth in goods exports, which offset a 0.6% decrease in services exports. Within goods exports, the growth was mainly caused by a rise in machinery and transport equipment. The fall in services exports was mainly because of other business services.

Import volumes are estimated to have increased by 1.4% in the latest quarter, and are now 2.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Goods imports increased by 1.5%, which was mainly because of a rise in in machinery and transport equipment. Services imports increased by 1.1%, mainly because of telecommunications, computer, and information services.

Revisions to trade are mainly because of corrected International Trade in Services (ITIS) data across the quarters of 2025, as outlined in our Breakdown of trade dataset. For Quarter 1 2026, revisions are because of survey data from ITIS replacing forecast data, and more available complete travel services inputs.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, and is up by 4.4% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP in the latest quarter was mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 2.1% in the latest quarter, and is up by 6.1% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in Quarter 1 2026 was caused by increases of 1.6% in wages and salaries, and 4.0% in employers' social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy, from our Labour Force Survey (LFS), and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, because of ongoing improvements in the LFS, and therefore increased volatility in quarterly estimates, we continue to use additional information; including our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information, UK bulletin. We use this to help improve both the accuracy of the income measure of GDP, and coherence with related statistics, such as those in the sector accounts.

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have increased by 2.1% in the latest quarter, and is 3.3% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. This was caused by an increase in household gross operating surplus and mixed income.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 1 2026, and are now 3.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

There was a 0.9% increase in taxes and a 1.6% fall in subsidies, which contribute positively to GDP.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2026 (Table 3). This is mainly because of an increase in private non-financial corporations (PNFC).

Estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations remains subject to uncertainty. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country's living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, and is up by 0.7% compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 9). There have been some small revisions to GDP per head figures across 2025, reflecting some revisions to GDP £ million figures as discussed at the start of this bulletin.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% annually in 2025, following a 0.1% fall in 2024.

Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on our Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2024 bulletin, published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 up to Quarter 1 2025 are based on an interpolation between mid-year estimates and our National population projections: 2024-based bulletin using the principal variant, published on 28 April 2026. Figures for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 onwards are based on the 2024-based national population projections.

We estimate real household disposable income (RHDI) per head by dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has decreased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 2026, following an increase of 1.2% in the previous quarter. The components of this measure are further broken down in Section 7: Quarterly sector accounts of this bulletin. 

Real household disposable income per head (seasonally adjusted) 

Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head decreased by 0.8% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, following an increase of 1.2% in the previous quarter.

The decrease in RHDI per head is because of several factors. Nominal gross disposable income was virtually unchanged (0.0%) this quarter, following an increase of 1.7% in the previous quarter. This occurred alongside growth in the implied deflator (used to remove the effects of inflation) by 0.8%, causing the fall in RHDI per head.

There were increases in RHDI per head in the following categories:

• compensation of employees, by £8.0 billion

• net property income, by £2.1 billion

• gross mixed income, by £1.5 billion

These were offset by an increase in taxes on income and wealth, by £6.9 billion, and a fall in net social contributions, by £5.1 billion. The impact of the reduction in the tax-free allowance for capital gains, and the resulting increase in Capital Gains Tax payments, contributed to the increase in taxes on income and wealth.

Households' saving ratio

The households' saving ratio is estimated to have fallen to 8.9% in the latest quarter, down from 9.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. During Quarter 1 2026, the contribution of non-pension saving decreased to 4.1 percentage points, down from 5.4 percentage points. Pension saving contributed 4.8 percentage points to the saving ratio, up from 4.2 percentage points in the previous quarter.

Final consumption expenditure grew by 1.4% this quarter, up from a growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter. The growth was driven by increases in spending on housing, water, gas, electric and other, and restaurants and hotels.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted) 

In the latest quarter, general government, non-financial corporations, and financial corporations were net borrowers, while households, non-profit institutions serving households, and rest of the world were net lenders. 

The UK's borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have decreased to 3.0% in Quarter 1 2026 compared with 3.6% of GDP in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025. 

Non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to 0.1% of GDP in the latest quarter, from borrowing of 0.9% of GDP in Quarter 4 2025. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to £1.2 billion in Quarter 1 2026, from net borrowing of £8.0 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by a fall in dividend payments of £18.6 billion, which were partially offset by an £8.5 billion increase in gross capital formation. 

Financial corporations net borrowing position was at 1.3% of GDP (£10.4 billion) in the latest quarter, following borrowing of 0.1% of GDP in Quarter 4 2025. This was driven by falls in the following:

• net reinvested earnings on foreign direct investment (FDI), by £4.5 billion 

• net capital transfers receivable, by £4.2 billion

• net distributed income of corporations, by £3.0 billion, driven by an increase in dividends paid

This was partially offset by a rise in social contributions of £2.8 billion, and a fall in gross capital formation of £1.6 billion. 

General government net borrowing decreased from the previous quarter, at 3.7% of GDP, from borrowing of 4.6% of GDP in Quarter 4 2025. Within general government, central government decreased their net borrowing to £25.4 billion, from £31.5 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by:

• a rise in receipts of taxes on income and wealth of £8.3 billion, which was partly because of the increase in Capital Gains Tax receipts

• a rise in net social contributions and benefits of £2.1 billion

This was partially offset by a rise in final consumption expenditure of £2.5 billion.

Households increased their net lending position to 2.3% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 2.2% of GDP in Quarter 4 2025. The drivers for this position are the same as those identified in the real household disposable income section.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted) 

In the latest quarter, financial corporations were net borrowers, while non-financial corporations, general government, households, non-profit institutions serving households and rest of the world were net lenders. 

The UK's net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have decreased to 0.9% in Quarter 1 2026 compared with 2.4% of GDP in Quarter 4 2025. 

Non-financial corporations switched to net lending of 0.1% of GDP in the latest quarter, following net borrowing of 0.6% of GDP in the previous quarter. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to £0.5 billion in Quarter 1 2026 from net borrowing of £5.6 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in assets of shares and other equity issued by the rest of the world of £35.7 billion, and an increase in net UK shares of £20.9 billion. This was partially offset by a fall in net loans of £35.8 billion and a fall in currency and deposits of £26.7 billion.

Financial corporations switched to net borrowing of 3.5% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 0.0% in Quarter 4 2025. This was driven by a fall in equity and investment fund shares/units of £18.7 billion, with a fall in derivatives of £5.9 billion, and a fall in net other accounts of £5.3 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in net currency and deposits of £7.8 billion. 

General government switched to net lending of 1.3% of GDP in the latest quarter, from borrowing of 5.5% in Quarter 4 2025. Within general government, central government switched to net lending of £15.5 billion, following net borrowing of £36.7 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a fall in the liabilities of UK central government securities of £51.8 billion; alongside a rise in assets in other long-term loans of £6.4 billion, and net currency and deposits of £4.0 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in net other accounts of £22.2 billion. 

Households decreased their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter to 0.9%, from 3.6% in Quarter 4 2025. This was driven by a fall in net currency and deposits of £30.5 billion, as well as a fall in net other accounts of £1.2 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in net equity and investment fund shares/units of £5.6 billion, and a reduction in liabilities in loans of £3.0 billion. 

Revisions 

Over recent quarters, we have undertaken a focused programme of work to improve the relationship between compensation of employees, and taxes on income within the national accounts. These components are intrinsically linked, taxes on income are largely derived from earnings, meaning that developments in the compensation of employees should be reflected in the path of Income Tax receipts (after allowing for policy changes and thresholds). 

We are moving away from a largely one-directional compilation process, where compensation of employees was driven primarily by short-term GDP indicators, towards a more iterative framework in which related data sources are considered together. An important development has been the increased use of other data sources, such as Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI). This is used alongside taxes on income data as a quality indicator to inform the timing and growth of the compensation of employees. 

These improvements have led to revisions to the quarterly path of compensation of employees from 2025 Quarter 1, onwards. The impacts extend through the household sector accounts, including revisions to RHDI per head, and the household saving ratio. As a result, the compensation of employees and taxes on income now present a consistent picture of household income growth. 

In addition to this, there are other small revisions, including to household final consumption expenditure. This followed a review of residual seasonality in these series, which has led to changes in the implied deflator. 

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 to Quarter 1 2026.

There have been small positive and negative 0.1 percentage point revisions to the quarters across 2025. These revisions mainly reflect revised source data, such as Value-Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, as well as changes to seasonal adjustment factors. This is now possible, as we have information on Quarter 1 2026 to help us assess the previous quarters' factors. In addition, we have also reviewed previously applied balancing adjustments.

We have separately published our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology. To produce this article, we have used expertise from the UK (the University of Southampton), and internationally (United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025. The GDP growth vintages to one decimal place are shown in Table 4.

Reaching the gross domestic product balance

Quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is a balanced measure of three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content, and inclusion of variables that enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the Three Approaches to Measuring GDP, 2012 report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP - data tables dataset, have a target limit of positive or negative £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. This is explained in more detail in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article.

Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP, where data content are particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following the UK leaving the EU, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU.

We have adjusted our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021, therefore we advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is provided in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data, which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services, will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project. Travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Estimates will be forecast during the period of the travel and tourism transformation.

Our Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation to improve the quality of our financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP):

• the output approach

• the expenditure approach

• the income approach

The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term, than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP (our published figure), estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows there are differences in the three approaches at this stage in the production cycle for 2025, with real growth estimated in a range of 1.2% to 1.5%. There will be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons, and is discussed further later in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in GVA. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We, therefore, rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey (MBS), to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts methodology. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP QMI.

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and are regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Based on our combined assessment from the suite of statistical tests, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate outputs from Quarter 1 1995 to Quarter 1 2026, although we continue to monitor this closely.

This topic is explored further in our How the ONS assesses statistical outputs for residual seasonality methodology updated on 12 May 2026.

More details can also be found in the Office for Statistical Regulation's (OSR's) Compliance review of Treatment of Seasonality in Quarterly GDP statistics, and our response to this review.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. In Section 5: Quality characteristics of GDP data in our GDP QMI, there is an analysis of the mean average revision, and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. For more information, please view our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2025 article, published on 31 October 2025.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".