Household projections for England: 2022-based

For this release of household projections, analyses in the bulletin use the migration category variant projection in place of the principal projections. This is consistent with the approach taken in our release Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based.

A projection that aligns with the principal projection in the 2022-based national population projections is available as part of this release and is called a five-year migration variant. Because of more up-to-date migration data, we advise use of the migration category variant in place of the principal projections that were referred to in the National population projections: 2022-based, as this is a better reflection of short-term population change. 

Demographic behaviour used to develop assumptions for projections is inherently uncertain and so projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward. This is particularly so for smaller geographical areas and detailed age and sex breakdowns. 

The 2022-based household projections are the first set of household projections to incorporate results from Census 2021. While a similar model has been used to the 2018-based and 2016-based household projections, a change to two of the younger age groups and use of 2011 and 2021 Census data also lead to results differing from earlier household projections releases.

The age group change affects the number of “dependent children” and, in combination with lower projected fertility in the subnational population projections, leads to a projected decrease in the number of households with dependent children. Changing the definition of dependent children to 0- to-18-year-olds, from 0- to-19-year-olds in previous releases, aligns with the Census 2021 definition.

• Over the 10 years to mid-2032, the number of households in England is projected to increase by 2.4 million (10.3%), from 23.5 million in 2022 to 25.9 million in 2032. 

• The fastest percentage increase over the first 10 years of the projections is in households with a household reference person (HRP) aged 85 years and over; they are projected to increase by 452,000 (42.3%) from 1.1 million in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2032, of these, 280,000 (61.9%) are projected to be living alone.

• The only age group for which a decrease in the number of households is projected is those with an HRP aged 55 to 64 years, which are projected to decline by 2.2% over the same time period. 

• Households containing children are projected to decrease by 8.4% in the 10 years ending mid-2032, from 6.7 million to 6.1 million. 

• All other household types are projected to increase, with one-person households projected to increase the most (19.6% in the 10 years to mid-2032). 

• The local authorities that are projected to have the largest growth in the number of households are not concentrated in a particular region; the highest rate of projected household growth in a local authority is in Tower Hamlets (London), where households are projected to increase by 25.9%, from 123,000 in 2022 to 155,000 in 2032 (excludes the City of London). 

• In terms of projected household growth, the East Midlands had the most local authorities in the top 10 (South Derbyshire, Harborough and North West Leicestershire). 

Between 2022 and 2032, the number of households in England is projected to grow from 23.5 million to 25.9 million, an increase of 10.3% (2.4 million). The projected increase of 10.3% equates to an average of 242,000 additional households per year. For the same period (2022 to 2032) in the 2018-based projections, we projected an average of 158,000 additional households per year. 

Over the entire 25-year projection period, the number of households is projected to increase by 22.8% to 28.9 million in 2047. 

The projected numbers of households in England from the 2018-based household projections compared with the latest projections, the 2022-based household projections, are shown in Figure 1. They show a faster rate of growth in the latest projections compared with the 2018-based projections. This is reflective of the inclusion of 2011 and 2021 Census data in the projection.

For the 2022-based household projections, the household reference person (HRP) is defined as the eldest economically active person in the household, or the eldest inactive person if there is no economically active person (Census 2021 definition).

Households where the HRP is aged between 65 and 74 years are projected to have the largest share of the total projected growth in households. Over a quarter (27.7%) of all growth is projected to come from this age group. The number of households with an HRP aged between 65 and 74 years is projected to increase from 3.3 million to 4.0 million in the 10 years to 2032.

More broadly, the number of households where the HRP is aged 65 years or over is projected to increase by 22.1% in the 10 years to 2032. In comparison, households with an HRP under the age of 65 years are projected to increase by 5.3%.

The projected numbers of households by HRP aged from 16 to 24 years up to 85 years and over are shown in Figure 2. It shows that the projected increase in households will largely come from households with an older HRP.

The number of households where the HRP is aged 85 years and over is projected to increase the most, by 42.3%, reaching 1.5 million by 2032. Overall, households with an HRP aged 85 years and over account for 18.7% of the total growth in households between 2022 and 2032.

These age patterns reflect the projected ageing population in the 2022-based subnational population projections. Between 2022 and 2032: 

• the number of people who are HRPs aged 65 to 74 years in England is projected to increase by 20.1% 

• the number aged 75 to 84 years is projected to increase by 16.3% 

• the number aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 42.4% 

It is also evident that a projected decreasing population for certain age groups translates into fewer projected households; the number of households with an HRP aged 55 to 64 years is projected to fall by 2.2% in the 10 years to 2032, reflecting the projected 2.0% fall in population for this age group over the same period. This is likely to be a cohort effect; smaller numbers of those born in the late 1960s to early 1970s will reach their late 50s or early 60s during the 2022 to 2032 period.

Annual average change in households from 2022 to 2032 is shown in Table 1, where change is highest when the HRP is aged 65 years and over.

The number of households is projected to grow in all but one local authority (Isles of Scilly) between 2022 and 2032.

The local authorities that are projected to have the largest growth in the number of households are not concentrated in a particular region. One local authority out of the projected fastest-growing 10 is in London. In these projections, the East Midlands had the most local authorities in the top 10 (South Derbyshire, Harborough and North West Leicestershire). In all 10 of the local authorities, growth is primarily driven by the increase in one-person households followed by other households with two or more adults.

The top 10 local authorities with the fastest growth over the 10-year period from 2022 to 2032 are shown in Table 2.

Figure 3 is an interactive tool that shows how the number of households in each local authority in England is projected to change in the 10 years to 2032. By choosing a local authority, you will see the total and percentage change in the number of households, alongside the projected number of households in 2022 and 2032.

Figure 3: Projected percentage change in number of households for local authorities in England, 2022 to 2032

The projected numbers of households by type of household in the 10-year period from 2022 to 2032 are shown in Figure 4. Households containing no children show projected growth whereas households with children show projected decline.

Households containing children are projected to decrease by 8.4% in the 10 years ending mid-2032, from 6.7 million to 6.1 million. All other household types are projected to increase, with one-person households projected to increase the most (19.6% in the 10 years to mid-2032).

In 2022, 71.7% of all projected households were one-person and multiple adult households without dependent children (referred to as “other households with two or more adults”), rising to 76.4% of all households in 2032.

In contrast, in 2022, 28.3% of all households were projected to have dependent children. This is projected to fall to 23.6% in 2032. The projected decrease in households with dependent children is reflective of projected fertility for England shown in the subnational population projections (used in household projections) and the change in our definition of dependent children to 16- to-18-year-olds.

The projected change in numbers of households both by type of household and by age of household reference person (HRP) is shown in Figure 5. One-person households and households with two or more adults are projected to increase across the majority of age groups in the 10-year period. This is in contrast to declining numbers of households with dependent children, which are projected to decrease for most age groups.

The growth in the number of one-person households and other households with two or more adults is driven by both an increase in population at older ages as a result of an ageing population and also a projected decline in future numbers of children (Figure 5). The largest combined projected growth for one-person households, and other households with two or more adults in the 10 years to 2032, is where the HRP is aged 85 years and over; 40.3% and 46.1%, respectively.

The household population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by 452,000, from 1.1 million to 1.5 million, by 2032. Within the 452,000 growth, it is projected that 280,000 (61.9%) will be living alone. The number of people aged 85 years and over living alone is projected to increase from 693,000 in 2022 to 973,000 in 2032 (a 40% increase).

Figure 6 is an interactive tool that shows how the number of households in each local authority in England is projected to change over the next 10 years, for each household type. By choosing a local authority, you will see the percentage change in the number of households for each household type between 2022 and 2032, alongside a summary table of the number of each household type in 2032.

Figure 6: Projected change in number of households for local authorities in England by household type, 2022 to 2032

Only 35 of the 309 local authorities are projecting an increase in the numbers of households with dependent children. The biggest increase (with the exception of the City of London) is in Maidstone (12.1%). Households without children are projected to increase in 308 out of 309 local authorities. Only the Isles of Scilly shows a projected decrease in the number of adult-only households to 2032.

All statistics in this bulletin are from the migration category variant projection. We recommend use of this variant for the 2022-based household projections, as it better reflects the international migration patterns, as published in our statistical bulletin Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2024. 

In this release, in addition to the migration category variant, we have included the following other variant projections: 

• a five-year migration variant (consistent with the national population projections principal projection) 

• a 10-year migration variant 

• a high international migration variant 

• a projected household representative rates (HRR) variant, projected throughout 

• a low international migration variant 

• a zero net migration variant 

We have also published a variant comparison dataset, which compares the data from each variant with all other variants. 

These variants provide an indication of the future number of households in England under a range of alternative assumptions. Detailed data for each variant are published in the datasets. Variant projections can also be found in our Household projections analysis tool. The tool enables users to analyse the principal and variant household projections at local authority level.

Communal establishment 

Communal establishments are based on the census definition, which in 2021 was defined as: 

"A managed communal establishment is a place that provides managed full-time or part-time supervision of residential accommodation."

Examples include:

• university halls of residence and boarding schools 

• care homes, hospitals, hospices and maternity units 

• hotels, guest houses, hostels and bed and breakfasts, all with residential accommodation for seven or more guests 

• prisons and other secure facilities 

• single living accommodation (SLA) in military bases 

• staff accommodation 

• religious establishments

It does not include sheltered accommodation, serviced apartments, nurses' accommodation, and houses rented to students by private landlords. These are households. 

Dependent child 

Any person aged 0 to 15 years living in a household, or a person aged 16 to 18 years in full-time education and living in a family with their parent(s) or grandparent(s). It does not include any people aged 16 to 18 years who have a spouse, partner or child living in the household. References in this article to "child" or "children" should be assumed to refer to dependent children. 

Household 

The household projections are based on the census definition of a household, which in 2021 was defined as: 

• one person living alone, or 

• a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room, or dining area

This includes:

• all sheltered accommodation units in an establishment (irrespective of whether there are other communal facilities), and 

• all people living in caravans on any type of site that is their usual residence; this will include anyone who has no other usual residence elsewhere in the UK

A household must contain at least one person whose place of usual residence is at the address. A group of short-term residents living together is not classified as a household, and neither is a group of people at an address where only visitors are staying. 

Household population 

The household population is the difference between the total usual resident population and the usual resident population living in communal establishments. 

Household reference person (HRP) 

The HRP is a person chosen for statistical reasons by virtue of economic activity, age and/or sex as the representative of a household. The 2022-based household projections define the HRP as the eldest economically active person in the household, then the eldest inactive person if there was no economically active person. 

Household projections before the 2016-based set defined the HRP as the eldest male within the household, then the eldest female if there was no male. The full explanation of the current HRP definition can be found in our Measurements used in Census 2021 data. 

Household representative rate (HRR) 

The HRR is the proportion of people in a particular demographic group (for the 2022-based household projections this is based on geography, age group and sex) who were the HRP. The value of the HRR will be between zero and one. 

Household type 

Household types classify each household by the number of adults and dependent children living within it and the nature of those relationships.

These are:

• one-person households 

• households with one dependent child 

• households with two dependent children 

• households with three or more dependent children 

• other households with two or more adults 

Usual resident population 

The usual resident population includes people who reside, or intend to reside, in the country for at least 12 months, whatever their nationality.

The 2022-based household projections provide statistics on the potential future number of households in England at region, county and local authority level up to 2047.

They show the household numbers that would result if the assumptions based in previous demographic trends in population and household formation were to be realised in practice. They can be seen as a useful resource for informing local-level policy and planning as they are produced in a consistent way.

Trends in household projections are a result of trends in household formation between the census years 2011 and 2021, and population change indicated by the subnational population projections. This publication supersedes the 2018-based household projections. 

These projections have been developed for geography boundaries, which were correct as of April 2022. A version of the migration category variant tables is also available on geography boundaries correct as of April 2023.

The projections are calculated using a two-stage process. The first stage takes the mid-2022 population estimates and subnational population projections by age group and sex, and applies an adjustment to remove those living in communal establishments (for example, prisons, care homes) using census data. These populations are then projected forward and are multiplied by household representative rates (HRR) to produce projected numbers of households. Totals for the regions are then constrained to the England total, with figures for local authorities constrained to the relevant regional totals. 

The second stage projects households by household types using headship rates, which are then constrained to the totals calculated in the first stage. More detail on this methodology is available in our article Methodology used to produce household projections for England: 2022-based. 

More details on quality and data sources can be found in our Household projections quality and methodology information (QMI) report. The QMI report helps users to understand the strengths and limitations of the data, appropriate uses, and how the data were created. It will also help users to reduce the risk of misusing the data. 

Strengths and limitations 

Household projections provide users with valuable insight into the changing patterns of household formation in England. They are produced using the same methods for all local authorities in England, so that data for one local authority are comparable with other local authorities, within a set of projections. 

Since projections are produced in a consistent way, they can be used as a common framework for informing local-level policy and planning; local areas can supplement them with any local information they have. 

The assumptions used in the household projections are based on past trends. However, demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain, so projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward. This is particularly so for smaller geographical areas and detailed age, sex and household type breakdowns. Changes in factors such as fertility, housing affordability and availability, and family formation can change these assumptions. 

Household projections are also limited by what data are available to inform detailed breakdowns of household population and households by the age and sex of the household reference person (HRP) at the local authority level.

Household projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that may influence household growth, such as the number of houses built. Household projections are not a prediction or forecast of how many houses should be built in the future. Instead, they show how many additional households would form if the population of England keeps growing as it did between 2011 and 2022 and keeps forming households as it did between 2011 and 2021. Therefore, household projections should be used as a starting point for calculating the future housing needs of a local area. 

In most cases, each set of projections is superseded when the next scheduled release is published. However, should there be cause to revise a specific set of projections – for example, because of an error in production – we would consider the best approach in line with the revisions policy for population statistics.

Accredited official statistics 

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in August 2011. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".