1. Latest news

Even with two periods of Purdah in this quarter we have been very busy with a number of outputs and publications.

What has happened this quarter in population statistics?

The 2014-based Sub-National Population Projections were published showing that all but 9 local authorities (LA) in England are projected to grow in size over the next ten years. In addition to this the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow at the fastest rate compared to other age groups in every region of England. New interactive maps have been used to show how the components of change affect the projected growth of each LA, whilst our interactive population pyramids show how areas are projected to age. If you would like to embed any of these interactive within your content please get in touch at projections@ons.gov.uk.

We recently published a 2014-based national population projections "Table of Contents” spreadsheet which provides links to all the published data and relevant supporting information to assist customers in finding the 2014-based NPP data they require. The spreadsheet is the first dataset available under national projections. If you have any feedback on whether this is helpful or what might improve it for future use please contact projections@ons.gov.uk.

This quarter saw the release of the mid-year population estimates, this annual report gives the population size of the UK and its constituent countries. Over the year to mid-2015 the number of people resident in the UK increased by 513,000 (up 0.8%). The population increase of the UK in the year to mid-2015 included natural growth (more births than deaths) of 171,800 people, net international migration of 335,600 and an increase of 5,800 people in the armed forces and prison populations.

On the same day the Internal migration estimates were made available and showed that there were an estimated 2.85 million residents moving between local authorities in England and Wales between July 2014 and June 2015, this is the same level shown the previous year. For those aged in their late 70s onwards, the proportion of people moving slightly rises. There are many reasons why people of this age may wish to move, including being closer to their family, downsizing, or specifically to access support and care.

The most recent release of migration data provided recent estimates on both long-term and short-term migration. These showed that net long-term international migration for the year ending December 2015 was 333,000, but both immigration and emigration saw a slight fall over this period.

The annual short-term international migration estimates, providing information on those arriving to the UK for less than one year, showed that 1.2 million people arrived in England and Wales for 1 to 12 months in the year ending June 2014. This compares to 2.4 million people emigrating over the same period. Nearly 3 out of 4 (73%) of 1 to 12 month short-term immigrants leave within 3 months and all leave within 12 months and the most common reason for both immigration and emigration of short-term migrants was for “other” reasons, which includes visiting family and holidays.

A number of short articles were also produced to help inform the public and to assist people’s understanding of current issues by providing an unbiased overview of our data. These covered a wide range of topics from across the office and included additional articles that had a specific EU focus in light of the EU referendum.

Migration: what is the debate?

Our migration figures have received a lot of attention in the media in the run-up to the European Referendum, particularly around the use of different sources and why they produce different figures. A note on the difference between National Insurance number registrations and the estimate of long-term international migration 2016 has been released, explaining that:

  • Short-term migration to the UK largely accounts for the recent differences between the number of long-term migrants (as estimated by the International Passenger Survey (IPS)) and the number of National Insurance number (NINo) registrations for EU citizens.

  • IPS continues to be the best source of information for measuring long-term international migration (LTIM).

  • NINo registrations data are not a good measure of LTIM, but they do provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in patterns of migration.

  • Definitional differences between these data are fundamental and it is not possible to provide an accounting type reconciliation that simply ‘adds’ and ‘subtracts’ different elements of the NINo registrations to match the LTIM definitions.

Over the next two years, more analysis will take place to better understand what administrative sources tell us about migration patterns, particularly migrants who may enter and leave the UK several times within a year. This work should help to better understand the measurement of international migration into and out of the UK.

What do you think of our new-look bulletin?

Work has been going on across the office to improve our statistical bulletins, to make them more effective and user-friendly. The first of the bulletins to take on the new approach was the Marriages in England and Wales: 2013 release. Have a look and see what you think, and send any feedback that you have to vsob@ons.gov.uk.

What will be happening in the next quarter?

This summer we have the annual publication of the population estimates by marital status and living arrangements, Population by country of birth and nationality, National Life Tables and population estimates of the very old. The local area migration indication suite will also be updated.

PSD Releases Quarter 1 (January to March 2016)

Population and Migration
Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, May 2016 Quarterly summary of migration trends, including links to new data from ONS, DWP and the Home Office. Note on the difference between National Insurance number registrations and the estimates of long-term international migration: 2016 An information note examining available data on the difference between the registration of National Insurance numbers to adult overseas nationals, and International Passenger Survey estimates of long-term international migration.
Short-term International Migration Annual Report Latest summary of the statistics covering short-term international migration, including final 2013 data and provisional 2014 data. Local authority estimates included. Internal migration, England and Wales: Year ending June 2015 Residential moves between different geographic areas within the UK sourced from the NHS Patient Register, the NHS Central Register (NHSCR) and the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA).
Long-term Legally Resident Population - Eurostat Requirement Collation of information from various sources including births, deaths, international migration stocks and IPS flows to provide estimates of the long-term legally resident population. Annual Mid-Year Population Estimates: 2015 Population Estimates for UK, Mid-2015. This release includes national and subnational population estimates for England and Wales, and for Scotland, and national estimates for Northern Ireland. Population estimates for areas within Northern Ireland are provisionally scheduled for publication in August 2016.
2014-based Subnational Population Projections for England This publication presents the results of the 2014-based population projections produced by ONS for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries. These results were previously published in statistical releases on 29 October 2015 and 26 November 2015. This volume is the latest in a regular series, which started in 1970, and brings together a summary of the results and details of the methodology into one compendium. Population Overview The quarterly update of this overview of what our published statistics tell us about the UK population.
Consistency of methods used for population statistics across UK countries A report outlining the methodological and data differences between the devolved administrations’ production of key population outputs, including a measure of materiality of differences. Small Area Population Estimates: Summary of Methodology review and research update This document summarises recommendations made following a recent review of the methodology used to produce the small area population estimates for England and Wales.
UK perspectives series This series of articles provide information on a number of topics including the population, migration, trade, the labour market and economy with additional articles covering the UK contribution to the EU budget, UK trade and migration.
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