Employment in the UK: January 2021

Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for the UK.

This is the latest release. View previous releases

26 January 2021

The effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on our capacity means we have reviewed the existing labour market releases and will be suspending some publications.

This will protect the delivery and quality of our remaining labour market outputs as well as ensuring we can respond to new demands as a direct result of the coronavirus. More details about the impact on labour market outputs can be found in our statement.

This is an accredited National Statistic. Click for information about types of official statistics.

Contact:
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Release date:
26 January 2021

Next release:
23 February 2021

2. Main points

  • September to November 2020 estimates show a large increase in the unemployment rate and a record number of redundancies, while the employment rate continues to fall; although decreasing over the year, total hours worked increased from the low levels in the previous quarter.

  • The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.2%, 1.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

  • The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 5.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

  • The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier but 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

  • The total number of weekly hours worked was 979.9 million, down 74.2 million hours on the same period the previous year but up 89.0 million hours compared with the previous quarter.

  • The redundancy rate reached a record high of 14.2 per thousand.

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The data in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households. It is not practical to survey every household each quarter, so these statistics are estimates based on a large sample.

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3. Coronavirus and measuring the labour market

Latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates are based on interviews that took place from the start of September to the end of November 2020. Interviews during September, October and November relate to the period when a number of the government lockdown measures aimed at protecting businesses and jobs during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic were reintroduced.

Because of the coronavirus and the suspension of face-to-face interviewing on 17 March 2020, we had to make operational changes to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), particularly in the way that we contact households for initial interview, which moved to a "by telephone" approach. These changes resulted in a response where certain characteristics have not been as well represented as previously. This is evidenced in a change in the balance of type of household that we are reaching. In particular, the proportion of households where people own their homes in the sample has increased and rented accommodation households has decreased.

To mitigate the impact of this non-response bias, in October 2020, we introduced housing tenure into the LFS weighting methodology for periods from January to March 2020 onwards. While not providing a perfect solution, this redressed some of the issues that had previously been noted in the survey results. More information can be found in Coronavirus and its impact on the Labour Force Survey and in this blog.

The change in weighting methodology resulted in revisions to all LFS estimates published on 13 October 2020 for the periods January to March 2020 through to May to July 2020 and consequently had an impact on recent movements for a number of the published series. More information about the impact of the change in weighting on main LFS indicators published in October 2020 can be found in Dataset X08.

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LFS responses are weighted to official population estimates and projections that do not currently reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is not designed to measure changes in the levels of population or long-term international migration.  We are analysing the population totals used in the weighting process and may make adjustments if appropriate. Rates published from the LFS remain robust and reliable, however levels and changes in levels should be used with caution.

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4. Employment

Employment measures the number of people aged 16 years and over in paid work and those who had a job that they were temporarily away from. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of employment includes those who worked in a job for at least one hour and those temporarily absent from a job. Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or who are self-employed but temporarily not in work have a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore, they are classified as employed under the ILO definition.

The estimated employment rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years had generally been increasing since early 2012, largely driven by an increase in the employment rate for women. However, there has been a decrease since December 2019 to February 2020, coinciding with the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (Figure 1).

For people aged between 16 and 64 years, for September to November 2020:

  • the estimated employment rate for all people was 75.2%; this is 1.1 percentage points down on the same period the previous year and 0.4 percentage points down compared with the previous quarter (June to August 2020)

  • the estimated employment rate for men was 78.4%; this is 1.9 percentage points down on the same period the previous year and 0.7 percentage points down on the quarter

  • the estimated employment rate for women was 72.0%; this is 0.4 percentage points down on the same period the previous year and 0.1 percentage points down on the quarter

The single-month and weekly estimates of the employment rate suggest that the rate has been largely flat during the three months period.

The increase in the employment rate for women in recent years is partly a result of changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years. However, since the equalisation of the State Pension age, the employment rate for women had continued to rise, though it has now decreased because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Imputation used for the Labour Force Survey (LFS) was not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months. Experimental work with adjusted methodology suggests the use of the existing methodology has little impact on the employment rate (less than 0.2 percentage points). Further information can be found in the section on Measuring the data.

Estimates for September to November 2020 show 32.50 million people aged 16 years and over in employment, 398,000 fewer than a year earlier. This was the largest annual decrease since December 2009 to February 2010 and was mainly driven by men. However, there was also an annual decrease for women; the first since January to March 2012.

Employment decreased by 88,000 on the quarter. This quarterly decrease was mainly driven by men in employment, the full-time self-employed, part-time employees and people aged between 25 and 64 years of age, but was partly offset by an increase in full-time employees and in people aged between 18 and 24 years of age.

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Age group

Looking more closely at the change in employment over the quarter by age group (Figure 2), there was a combined decrease of 162,000 on the quarter for those aged 25 to 64 years, to 27.61 million. Meanwhile, the number of people in employment aged between 16 and 24 years increased by 24,000 on the quarter to 3.56 million, the first quarterly increase since January to March 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic. There was also a quarterly increase in employment for those aged 65 years and over, by 50,000 to 1.33 million.

Full-time and part-time employees and self-employed

Looking more closely at the quarterly decrease in employment (Figure 3), this was driven by decreases in the number of full-time self-employed people (down 71,000 to 3.12 million) and part-time employees (down 182,000 to 6.56 million). The latter was driven more by women (down 117,000), but male part-time employees saw the largest quarterly decrease since July to September 2011 (down 65,000).

The quarterly decrease was partly offset by an increase in full-time employees, up by 170,000 on the quarter to a record high of 21.32 million. The increase in full-time employees was mainly driven by women (up 135,000 on the quarter to a record 8.81 million), while men increased by 35,000 to a record 12.52 million.

Employment status on the LFS is self-reported, with people classifying themselves as being either an employee or self-employed. Previous labour market flows estimates show that the recent increases in the number of employees and decreases in the number of self-employed people have been driven, in part, by a movement of people from self-employed to employee status. Of those who move from self-employed to employee status, the number who had changed jobs had not increased from normal levels. Consequently, some of the fall in self-employment comes from an increase in the number of people who have changed to classifying themselves as an employee, even though they have not changed jobs. Additional analysis suggests the drivers of this are self-employed people who previously reported they were sole directors of their own limited business, partners in a business or a professional practice, subcontractors, or those doing freelance work.

Temporarily away from job

From the way the Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are collected, it is possible to separate out responses relating to individual weeks during the survey period. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has developed a method for weighting the weekly LFS data to produce UK aggregates. The sample for any week is not representative, and the results are more volatile than the quarterly or monthly estimates. As such, their use is to show any large impact of a sudden change in labour market conditions and should not be used as a leading indicator.

The LFS collects information on those temporarily away from paid work that they expect to return to. Of those temporarily away from paid work, we gather a range of data, including whether they are temporarily away from work short-term (less than three months) or long-term (three months or more) and whether those away long-term are earning more or less than half their usual salary.

These experimental weekly Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates show that before lockdown the estimated number of people temporarily away from work was approximately 2.5 million. These people could be away for a variety of reasons including sickness, maternity or paternity leave, holidays or economic reasons.

There was a large increase, in both March and April 2020, in those stating that they were temporarily away from paid work (Figure 4) with nearly 9 million away from work in the final week of April 2020. The total number of people temporarily away from paid work had been gradually decreasing from these high levels since June 2020. However, between September and November 2020 it has been largely flat, with the total number of people away from work for less than three months increasing slightly and those away from work for three months or more continuing to decrease over this period.

In April 2020, several questions were added to the LFS questionnaire to gather additional information on the situation in the labour market during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. One such question asks whether an employee is still being paid while their job is on hold and/or affected by the coronavirus pandemic; everyone answering this question will be defined as in employment.

Experimental weekly Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates show approximately half a million employees received no pay while their job was on hold and/or affected by the coronavirus pandemic in April and May 2020. This has decreased and remained largely flat since July 2020, however, it has increased from an average of 210,000 in September and October 2020 to an average of 278,000 in November 2020.

Hours worked

Since estimates began in 1971, up until the introduction of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown measures, total hours worked by women had generally increased, reflecting increases in both the employment rate for women and the UK population. In contrast, total hours worked by men had been relatively stable because of falls in the employment rate for men, and increases in the share of part-time working, roughly offset by population increases.

Workers temporarily absent from a job as a result of the coronavirus pandemic would still be classed as employed, however, they would be employed working no hours. This directly impacted the total actual hours worked in September to November 2020. Since the average actual weekly hours are the average of all in employment, those temporarily absent from a job also impacted on those estimates. Even though lockdown restrictions were reintroduced during the September to November 2020 period, the estimates show an increase for hours worked in comparison with the previous quarter, although the level is still well below pre-coronavirus levels.

Between June to August 2020 and September to November 2020, total actual weekly hours worked in the UK saw an increase of 89.0 million, or 10.0%, to 979.9 million hours (Figure 5). Total hours worked for men saw an increase of 44.2 million, or 8.4%, to 572.1 million hours, and total hours worked for women saw an increase of 44.7 million, or 12.3%, to 407.8 million hours.

Average actual weekly hours worked saw an increase of 2.8 hours on the quarter to 30.1 hours. The average weekly hours worked by men saw an increase of 2.8 hours to 33.7 hours, while women's hours saw an increase of 2.9 hours to 26.2 hours.

Imputation used for the Labour Force Survey was not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months. Experimental work with adjusted methodology suggests that during the early stages of lockdown we were understating the full extent of the reduction in total hours. However, now that total hours are increasing, this has reversed so that the experimental methodology now suggests the actual number of hours is approximately 2% higher than stated.

Experimental weekly Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates show a decrease in hours for both employees and the self-employed, with the largest decrease seen for those identifying as self-employed. Since May 2020, we have seen hours for both groups start to increase slowly; by the end of November 2020 the average actual hours worked by employees were almost back in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic. Self-employed hours have been more volatile than employee hours throughout the lockdown period and, although they have increased since May, in November 2020 they were still well below the levels seen pre-lockdown.

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5. Unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.

Estimated unemployment rates for both men and women aged 16 years and over had generally been falling since late 2013 but have increased over recent periods (Figure 6).

For people aged 16 years and over, for September to November 2020:

  • the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 5.0%; this is 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter

  • the estimated UK unemployment rate for men was 5.4%; this is 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter

  • the estimated UK unemployment rate for women was 4.7%; this is 1.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier and a record 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter

The single-month and weekly estimates of the unemployment rate suggest that the rate has increased through September and October 2020, but was fairly flat in November 2020.

Imputation used for the Labour Force Survey (LFS) was not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months. Experimental work with adjusted methodology suggests the use of the existing methodology has little impact on the unemployment rate (around 0.1 percentage points). Further information can be found in the section on Measuring the data.

For September to November 2020, an estimated 1.72 million people were unemployed, up 418,000 on the same period the previous year and up 202,000 on the quarter. The annual increase was the largest since October to December 2009, with unemployment reaching its highest level since July to September 2015. There were quarterly increases for both men (up 87,000) and women (up a record 116,000) and there were increases across all age groups.

Looking in more detail at the increase in unemployment by age group (Figure 7):

  • those aged 16 to 24 years increased by 109,000 on the year, and 10,000 on the quarter, to 591,000

  • those aged 25 to 49 years increased by 179,000 on the year, and 118,000 on the quarter, to 721,000

  • those aged 50 to 64 years increased by 122,000 on the year (the largest annual increase since April to June 2009), and 62,000 on the quarter, to 378,000

The annual increase in unemployment is mainly driven by those unemployed for up to six months, up 284,000 on the year to 1.09 million (Figure 8). However, those unemployed for over 12 months have also increased by 64,000 on the year, and 54,000 on the quarter, to 357,000.

To estimate duration of unemployment, Labour Force Survey (LFS) respondents are asked how long they have been looking for work. Respondents are unlikely to discount short periods where they were not looking for work from this. Consequently, the quarterly increase in those unemployed for over 12 months is driven, in part, by those that briefly stopped looking for work in the earlier stages of the pandemic (and were therefore classified as economically inactive at that time) as they are likely to return to unemployment duration estimates in longer-term categories.

Looking at unemployment by industry of last job, there were increases for all industries except the human health and social work activities industry between September to November 2019 and September to November 2020 (Figure 9). The largest increase was for those previously employed in accommodation and food service activities, up 54,000 on the year to 171,000. The second-largest increase was for those previously employed in manufacturing, up 51,000 on the year to 130,000. Other services also increased by 51,000 on the year to 78,000. In September to November 2020, the highest unemployment level across all industries was for those previously employed in wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles, at 209,000.

The Claimant Count (Experimental Statistics)

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These Claimant Count statistics relate to 10 December 2020. Enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government's response to the coronavirus mean that an increasing number of people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed.

Consequently, changes in the Claimant Count will not be wholly because of changes in the number of people who are unemployed. We are not able to identify to what extent people who are employed or unemployed have affected the numbers.

The Claimant Count is an Experimental Statistic that seeks to measure the number of people claiming benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed.

To achieve this, the Claimant Count has generally been a count of the appropriate benefits within the UK's current benefit regime that best meet that criteria. Currently this is a combination of claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) and claimants of Universal Credit (UC) who fall within the UC "searching for work" conditionality.

Those claiming unemployment-related benefits (either UC or JSA) may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support.

Under UC a broader span of claimants became eligible for unemployment-related benefit than under the previous benefit regime. During the roll-out of UC since 2013, movements in the Claimant Count have been significantly affected by this expanding eligibility, rather than labour market conditions. This impact has led to the Claimant Count being reclassified to an Experimental Statistic.

As part of the UK government's response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, a number of enhancements and easements have been made to UC, which impact the statistics. In addition, claimants are accessing UC as a "top-up" to government support packages (such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self-Employment Income Support Scheme) to legitimately claim unemployment benefits whilst "furloughed". A proportion of those claimants will be employed under the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition - furloughed, or with low earnings or hours of paid work.

Consequently, while some of any movement in the Claimant Count would be because of changes in the number of people who are out of work, a certain amount of the movement will be because of changes in the number of people in work who are eligible for UC as part of the government response. We are not able to identify to what extent these two factors have affected the numbers.

The Claimant Count increased slightly in December 2020 to 2.6 million (Figure 10). This represents a monthly increase of 0.3% and an increase of 113.2%, or 1.4 million, since March 2020.

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6. Economic inactivity

Economic inactivity measures people without a job but who are not classed as unemployed because they have not been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks. Our headline measure of economic inactivity is for those aged between 16 and 64 years.

Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for all people aged between 16 and 64 years has generally been falling (although it increased during recessions). This is because of a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women. This fall reflects changes to the State Pension age, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years, as well as more women in younger age groups participating in the labour market. Over recent years, the economic inactivity rate for men has been relatively flat (Figure 11).

For people aged between 16 and 64 years, for September to November 2020:

  • the estimated economic inactivity rate for all people was 20.7%; this is up by 0.2 percentage points on the same period the previous year but down by 0.1 percentage points on the quarter

  • the estimated economic inactivity rate for men was 17.0%; this is up by 0.9 percentage points on the same period the previous year and up by 0.3 percentage points on the quarter

  • the estimated economic inactivity rate for women was at a joint record low of 24.4%; this is down by 0.5 percentage points on the same period the previous year and also down by 0.5 percentage points on the quarter

Estimates for September to November 2020 show 8.59 million people aged between 16 and 64 years not in the labour force (economically inactive). This was 87,000 more than a year earlier but 33,000 less than the previous quarter. The annual increase was the largest since March to May 2015 and was driven by men (up 187,000), but partially offset by a decrease for women (down 100,000 to a record low of 5.08 million).

Imputation used for the Labour Force Survey was not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months. Experimental work with adjusted imputation methodology suggests the use of the existing methodology has little impact on the economic inactivity rate (around 0.1 percentage points). Further information can be found in the section on Measuring the data.

In terms of reasons for economic inactivity (Figure 12), the annual increase was largely driven by those who are long-term sick, up 99,000 on the year to 2.16 million, and those who are inactive because of “other” reasons, up 188,000 on the year to 1.13 million. There was also a record annual increase of 43,000 (to 73,000) for discouraged workers (those who are not looking for work because they believe no jobs are available). The annual increase was offset somewhat by the large decrease in people who were economically inactive because of looking after family or home (down 294,000 on the year to 1.64 million).

The small quarterly decrease in economic inactivity was driven by a decrease in those who want a job, down 63,000 on the quarter to 1.93 million.

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7. Redundancies

The redundancy estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews; it does not take into consideration planned redundancies. So, in this release, the latest estimates may relate to redundancies over the period from the beginning of July to the end of November 2020.

Reports of redundancy in the three months prior to interview increased in September to November 2020 by a record 10.0 per thousand on the year, and 6.0 per thousand on the quarter, to a record high of 14.2 per thousand (Figure 13).

Experimental weekly Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates show that the number of people reporting redundancy in the three months prior to interview has been increasing since June 2020 and remains high in November 2020 but has dropped from the peak in September (Figure 14).

The redundancy rate increased for all age groups (Figure 15). Those aged 25 to 34 years had the highest redundancy rate, of 16.2 per thousand (compared with 3.1 per thousand a year earlier), and those aged 35 to 49 years had the lowest redundancy rate, of 12.8 per thousand (compared with 4.0 per thousand a year earlier).

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8. Employment in the UK data

Employment, unemployment and economic inactivity
Dataset A05 SA | Released 26 January 2021
Estimates of UK employment, unemployment and economic inactivity broken down into age bands.

Full-time, part-time and temporary workers
Dataset EMP01 SA | Released 26 January 2021
Estimates of UK employment including a breakdown by sex, type of employment, and full-time and part-time working.

Actual weekly hours worked
Dataset HOUR01 SA | Released 26 January 2021
Estimates for the hours that people in employment work in the UK.

Unemployment by age and duration
Dataset UNEM01 SA | Released 26 January 2021
Estimates of unemployment in the UK including a breakdown by sex, age group and the length of time people are unemployed.

Economic inactivity by reason
Dataset INAC01 SA | Released 26 January 2021
Estimates of those not in the UK labour force measured by the reasons given for economic inactivity.

Labour Force Survey sampling variability
Dataset A11 | Released 26 January 2021
Labour Force Survey (LFS) sampling variability (95% confidence intervals).

Labour Force Survey single month estimates
Dataset X01 | Released 26 January 2021
Labour Force Survey (LFS) single-month estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity have been published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) since 2004. Not designated as National Statistics.

Labour Force Survey weekly estimates
Dataset X07 | Released 26 January 2021
Labour Force Survey (LFS) weekly estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and hours in the UK. All estimates are calculated from highly experimental weekly Labour Force Survey datasets.

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9. Glossary

Actual and usual hours worked

Statistics for usual hours worked measure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.

Economic inactivity

People not in the labour force (also known as economically inactive) are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work in the next two weeks. The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are not in the labour force.

Employment

Employment measures the number of people in paid work or who had a job that they were temporarily away from (for example, because they were on holiday or off sick). This differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment. A more detailed explanation is available in our guide to labour market statistics.

Unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (that is, those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.

A more detailed glossary is available.

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10. Measuring the data

This bulletin relies on data collected from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the largest household survey in the UK.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the LFS QMI.

The LFS performance and quality monitoring reports provide data on response rates and other quality-related issues for the LFS.

Coronavirus

For more information on how labour market data sources are affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, see the article published on 6 May 2020, which details some of the challenges that we have faced in producing estimates at this time.

An article published on 11 December 2020 compares our labour market data sources and discusses some of the main differences.

Our latest data and analysis on the impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy and population are available on our dedicated coronavirus web page. This is the hub for all special coronavirus-related publications, drawing on all available data. In response to the developing coronavirus pandemic, we are working to ensure that we continue to publish economic statistics. For more information, please see COVID-19 and the production of statistics.

LFS responses are weighted to official population estimates and projections that do not currently reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is not designed to measure changes in the levels of population or long-term international migration.  We are analysing the population totals used in the weighting process and may make adjustments if appropriate. Rates published from the LFS remain robust and reliable, however levels and changes in levels should be used with caution.

Impact of the coronavirus on data collection

The LFS design is based on interviewing households over five consecutive quarters. Generally, the first of these interviews, called Wave 1, takes place face-to-face, with most subsequent interviews, for Waves 2 to 5, conducted by telephone.

During March, we stopped conducting face-to-face interviews, instead switching to using telephone interviewing exclusively for all waves. This initially caused a significant drop in response.

New measures have been introduced to improve this, which have increased sample sizes, although they are still below normal LFS sample sizes.

Impact of the coronavirus on survey imputation methodology

The normal imputation for non-response to the LFS relies on rolling forward previous responses. Although this method is adequate under normal circumstances, it is not designed to deal with the changes experienced in the labour market in recent months. A new experimental imputation methodology has been researched to improve the measurement of the labour market at this time.

Because of time and system constraints, it has not been possible to fully integrate this methodology into the results within this release, but early indications suggest that:

  • there is little impact from the use of existing methodology on the headline measures of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity (less than 0.2 percentage points)

  • measures relating to total hours in this release understate the increase in the actual number of hours worked by approximately 2%

We hope to include more information in later releases as this work develops.

Impact of the coronavirus on survey weighting methodology

Because of the impact on data collection, different weeks throughout the quarter have different achieved sample sizes. To mitigate this impact on estimates the weighting methodology was enhanced to include weekly calibration to ensure that samples from each week had roughly equal representation within the overall three-month estimate. This meant that any impacts seen from changes in the labour market in those weeks would be fully represented within the estimates.

Because of the suspension of face-to-face interviewing in March 2020, we had to make operational changes to the LFS, particularly in the way that we contact households for initial interview, which moved to a "by telephone" approach. These changes have resulted in a response where certain characteristics have not been as well represented as previously. This is evidenced in a change in the balance of type of household that we are reaching. In particular, the proportion of households where people own their homes in the sample has increased and rented accommodation households has decreased.

To mitigate the impact of this non-response bias we have introduced housing tenure into the LFS weighting methodology for periods from January to March 2020 onwards. While not providing a perfect solution, this has redressed some of the issues that had previously been noted in the survey results. More information can be found in an article Coronavirus and its impact on the Labour Force Survey.

Impact of government measures to protect businesses on the Labour Force Survey estimates

During late March, the government announced a number of measures to protect UK businesses. This included the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), also referred to as furloughing, and the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS).

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) classifies people within the labour market in line with International Labour Organization (ILO) definitions. Under the ILO definition, employment includes employed persons "at work", that is, those who worked in a job for at least one hour; and employed persons "not in work" because of temporary absence from a job, or a change to working time arrangements.

Under the current schemes it is likely that workers would have an expectation of returning to that job and would consider the absence from work as temporary. Therefore, those people absent from work under the current schemes would generally be classified as employed under ILO definitions.

In many cases, however, they would be employed but not in work. This absence would have an impact on the total hours worked. This would also be reflected in the average actual hours worked, which are based on the average hours per person employed, rather than the average hours per person at work. While actual hours would be significantly affected, there is unlikely to be any impact on usual hours, which would reflect normal working patterns.

End of EU exit transition period

As the transition period ends and the UK enters into a new Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU, the UK statistical system will continue to produce and publish our wide range of economic and social statistics and analysis. We are committed to continued alignment with the highest international statistical standards, enabling comparability both over time and internationally, and ensuring the general public, statistical users and decision makers have the data they need to be informed.

As the shape of the UK's future statistical relationship with the EU becomes clearer over the coming period, the ONS is making preparations to assume responsibilities that as part of our membership of the EU, and during the transition period, were delegated to the statistical office of the EU, Eurostat. This includes responsibilities relating to international comparability of economic statistics, deciding what international statistical guidance to apply in the UK context and to provide further scrutiny of our statistics and sector classification decisions.

In applying international statistical standards and best practice to UK economic statistics, we will draw on the technical advice of experts in the UK and internationally, and our work will be underpinned by the UK's well-established and robust framework for independent official statistics, set out in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. Further information on our proposals will be made available early this year.

We will continue to produce our labour market statistics in line with the UK Statistics Authority's Code of Practice for Statistics and in accordance with International Labour Organization (ILO) definitions and agreed international statistical guidance.

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11. Strengths and limitations

Uncertainty in these data

The estimates presented in this bulletin contain uncertainty.

The figures in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which gathers information from a sample of households across the UK rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints. Results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.

As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. Estimates for small groups (for example, unemployed people aged between 16 and 17 years), which are based on small subsets of the LFS sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups (for example, the total number of unemployed people).

In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this bulletin between three-month periods are small and are not usually greater than the level that can be explained by sampling variability. Short-term movements in reported rates should be considered alongside longer-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in other sources to give a fuller picture.

Comparability

The data in this bulletin follow internationally accepted definitions specified by the International Labour Organization (ILO). This ensures that the estimates for the UK are comparable with those for other countries.

An annual reconciliation report of job estimates is published every March comparing the latest workforce jobs (WFJ) estimates with the equivalent estimates of jobs from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

The concept of employment (measured by the LFS as the number of people in work) differs from the concept of jobs, since a person can have more than one job and some jobs may be shared by more than one person. The LFS, which collects information mainly from residents of private households, is the preferred source of statistics on employment. The WFJ series, which is compiled mainly from surveys of businesses, is the preferred source of statistics on jobs by industry, since it provides a more reliable industry breakdown than the LFS. During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the LFS and WFJ series may have additional differences because a person's perception of their attachment to a job may differ from the business's perception of that job. It is also important to note that the LFS is based on interviews throughout the coverage period, whereas the WFJ series relates to a specific date. This difference can be significant in a labour market that is experiencing rapid changes.

Further information is available in A guide to labour market statistics.

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Contact details for this Statistical bulletin

Bob Watson
labour.market@ons.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)1633 455070