Regional economic activity by gross domestic product, UK: 1998 to 2019

• In 2019, real gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK is estimated to have increased by 1.3%; all International Territorial Level (ITL) 1 regions reported positive growth over the year, with the exception of the West Midlands, which showed no change.

• Of the ITL1 regions, London witnessed the largest growth in real GDP in 2019 at 2.2%, followed by the South East and Scotland, at 1.6% and 1.3% respectively.

• At the ITL1 level, in 2019, London had the highest GDP per head in current market prices at £56,199, while the North East had the lowest GDP per head at £24,068.

• Of the ITL3 regions, Norwich and East Norfolk showed the largest increase in real GDP in 2019 at 7.2%, while the largest decrease was registered in Peterborough at 4.6%

• At the ITL3 level, in 2019, Camden and City of London had the highest GDP per head in current market prices at £383,606, while Ards and North Down had the lowest GDP per head at £16,046; both extremes are highly affected by commuting flows.

Summary

UK gross domestic product (GDP), in chained volume measures, was estimated to have increased by 1.3% in 2019.

Of the four countries in the UK, England and Scotland reported the joint largest increase in real GDP in 2019 at 1.3% (Table 1). Northern Ireland showed the smallest increase at 0.3%. Wales displayed an increase in real GDP of 0.7% between 2018 and 2019.

Notes:

1. Figures may not sum due to rounding in totals; per head (£) figures are rounded to the nearest pound.
2. 2019 estimates are provisional.
3. Population estimates are sourced from Population Estimates for UK release.
4. GDP in current prices.
5. GDP in chained volume measures.
6. Per head figures exclude Extra-Regio: the off-shore contribution to GDP that cannot be assigned to any region.
7. n/a equals not applicable.

At the International Territorial Level (ITL) 1, all regions showed positive growth in GDP between 2018 and 2019, with the exception of the West Midlands, which showed no change. Of the 14 ITL3 local areas in the region, 11 showed a decrease in GDP over the year. The biggest decrease came in Sandwell where there was a fall of 2.9%.

The largest growth in GDP at ITL1 level was reported in London at 2.2%, where 12 of the 21 ITL3 local areas in the region witnessed an increase. The largest increase was in Croydon at 3.7%. This increase is reflected in the gross value added (balanced) data for the area, where the production and services sectors grew by 12.3% and 5.5% respectively. These increases were partially offset by a 6.5% fall in the construction sector in the area.

Figure 1: All ITL1 regions reported positive growth between 2018 and 2019, with the exception of the West Midlands which showed no change¹ ²

Notes:

1. GDP in chained volume measures.
2. This chart shows annual growth rates to one decimal place. There may be instances where growth in a region (i.e. West Midlands) is showing no change to one decimal place. However, there may be movements in the underlying data.

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Sector and industry analysis of gross value added (balanced)

As we do not have an industrial breakdown for regional gross domestic product (GDP), we can use the gross value added (balanced) (GVA) estimates to understand the industry movements.

Our GVA chained volume measures estimates show that London was the fastest growing International Territorial Level (ITL) 1 region in 2019 at 2.4%. This was driven by the services sector, which grew by 2.4% over the year. Within the services sector, there were notable increases in information and communication (8.4%), real estate activities (3.3%), and wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles (3.2%).

At a UK level, the services sector grew by 1.8% between 2018 and 2019. All ITL1 regions reported an increase in this sector over the year. Within the services sector, the biggest increase was in the information and communication industry. All ITL1 regions reported an increase in this industry in 2019, led by the West Midlands and London at 9.0% and 8.4% respectively.

At a UK level, the biggest decline within the services sector was witnessed in the financial and insurance activities industry. All ITL1 regions reported a decrease in this industry, with the biggest fall reported in Northern Ireland at 18.2%. It should be noted that approximately 50% of the UK's activity in this industry is reported solely in London where we saw a decline of 2.0%.

Elsewhere, the production sector shrank by 0.9% at UK level. Out of the 12 ITL1 regions, 10 saw a decline in this sector, the biggest of which was reported in the West Midlands at 3.1%, followed by London and the South East, each reporting a fall of 1.4%.

At a UK level, the biggest decline within the production sector was witnessed in the manufacturing industry, where all ITL1 regions observed a fall. The largest fall was seen in the West Midlands at 4.6%. The construction sector reported positive growth in GVA between 2018 and 2019 in all ITL1 regions. At a UK level, the sector grew by 1.8%.

When ordered by gross domestic product (GDP) per head in current prices, the top 10 International Territorial Level (ITL) 3 areas were in the London, South East, West Midlands or Scotland ITL1 regions (Table 2). The top five areas were all within the London region.

In real terms, 111 of 179 ITL3 areas witnessed an increase in GDP per head between 2018 and 2019. The largest increases were in Norwich and East Norfolk (7.0%), Enfield (4.6%) and Croydon (4.5%).

The bottom 10 ITL3 areas were mainly from Northern Ireland, South West, North West and Wales ITL1 regions. In real terms, 59 of the 179 ITL3 areas showed a decrease in GDP per head between 2018 and 2019. The largest decreases were in Peterborough (5.1%) and Central Bedfordshire (3.1%). Of the 179 local areas, 9 showed no change in real GDP per head between 2018 and 2019.

Notes

1. Data for all ITL3 local areas are included in dataset Regional gross domestic product: all ITL regions.
2. GDP at current market prices on workplace basis.
3. Figures may not sum due to rounding in totals; per head (£) figures are rounded to the nearest pound sterling.
4. 2019 estimates are provisional.
5. Per head figures exclude Extra-Regio: the off-shore contribution to GDP that cannot be assigned to any region.
6. Population estimates are sourced from Population Estimates for UK release.
7. GDP in chained volume measures.

Figure 2 allows users to explore how gross domestic product (GDP) per head in current prices has varied among local authorities between 1998 and 2019.

Figure 2: Gross domestic product per head for UK local authorities, 1998 to 2019

Notes:

1. The City of London is not shown on the map because its GDP per head is a large outlier value.
2. Natural breaks have been used to classify the data into ranges

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Chained volume measures (CVM)

These time series have the effects of inflation removed by considering changes in quantity between consecutive periods, holding prices from previous periods constant.

Constant price (KP) series

These series have the effects of inflation removed by holding prices throughout the series at the level in a chosen base year (also known as "real terms" series).

Current price (CP) series

These series include the effects of inflation.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

Gross value added (GVA)

The value generated by any unit engaged in production and the contributions of individual sectors or industries to gross domestic product.

International Territorial Level (ITL)

International Territorial Levels (ITL) is the new UK geographies classification system. This has superseded the Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) classification system.

Methodology information

Various guidance and methodology documents relating to regional gross value added: balanced (GVA(B)), income (GVA(I)) and production (GVA(P)) are available. The regional accounts methodology guide provides an overview of the methodology used to compile regional accounts outputs.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Regional gross value added (balanced) QMI.

Other historical guidance, methodology and update documents are also available in our previous release, in Section 7: Measuring the data.

Revisions

GDP and GVA estimates show revisions for the period 1998 to 2018.

Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of errors in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical error but in this context the word refers to the uncertainty in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques or the incorporation of new information, which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced.

Only rarely are there avoidable errors such as human or system errors and such mistakes are made clear when they are discovered and corrected.

This year we have introduced enhancements to the data used to allocate the income component non-market capital consumption, affecting public sector industries, and have addressed some specific issues with the water and tobacco industries, mostly affecting Scotland and Northern Ireland.

We have also completed the replacement of modelled elements for the new Scottish sub-regions with data collected for the new areas, which has resulted in changes to the distribution within Scotland (but has not affected the total for Scotland as a whole).

For lower-level geographies, we have carried out a thorough quality assurance of the administrative data used to allocate most industries, which has produced more stable and reliable time series at these levels.

For GDP we have improved the regional allocation of consumer-based taxes, such as duty on alcohol, tobacco and fuel, to reflect the location of consumers rather than producers.

We have published revisions triangles for GVA:

• Revisions triangles: regional gross value added (balanced) in current basic prices

• Revisions triangles: regional gross value added (balanced) in chained volume measures

National Statistics

Data included in this release are designated as National Statistics, which means they have been assessed by the Office for Statistics Regulation as fully compliant with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Quality information

Figures for 2019 are provisional as national estimates have not been through supply and use balancing at the time of this publication. Regional industry estimates for the components of income and production in 2019 have been calculated by applying growth in gross domestic product (output) industry figures and then constraining these to sum to the income and production component totals. The figures used in this process are consistent with those published in the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book: 2020.

More information regarding the quality of these estimates can be found in the Regional gross value added (balanced) QMI.