GDP monthly estimate, UK: November 2025

In the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1%, after showing no growth in the three months to October (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025.

• Services output increased by 0.2%, after rising by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised up from showing no growth in our previous publication).

• Production output fell by 0.1%, largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers in this period; the fall in the three months to November follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication).

• Construction output fell by 1.1%, following a fall of 0.3% in the three months to October 2025; this continues a pattern of slowing growth in the three-monthly measure since May 2025 and is the lowest reading in the three-monthly growth since March 2023.

In the month to November 2025:

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3%, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025 and a growth of 0.1% in September 2025 (revised up from our initial estimate of a fall of 0.1%).

• Services grew by 0.3%, production grew by 1.1%, and construction fell by 1.3% in November 2025.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025. This follows no growth in the three months to October 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 0.2% in services output. There were falls in the remaining two main sectors, with a fall of 1.1% in the construction sector and a fall of 0.1% in the production sector.

Within the production sector, there was a 18.9% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This detracted 0.11 percentage points from total GDP growth and 0.85 percentage points from production growth in the three months to November 2025. For further information, see the Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry subsection of Section 4: The production sector.

In this release, October 2025 is open for revision and January 2024 to September 2025 have been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 22 December 2025.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). For more information, please see our Why GDP figures are revised article.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2025. Services and production both grew in November 2025, by 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively. Construction fell by 1.3% in November 2025.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.4%, production grew by 0.4%, and construction grew by 0.7%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.4% higher in November 2025, compared with November 2024.

Services output grew by 0.2% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025. This is following growth of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised up from showing no growth in our previous publication). Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 7: Revisions to GDP.

Figure 3: Services output increased by 0.2% in the three months to November 2025 and now shows growth in every three-month period since January 2024

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector

There was a rise in output in 8 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to November 2025. The largest positive contributions at the subsector level came from:

• real estate activities (up 0.4%) – caused by growth in all three industries, with the largest contribution coming from imputed rental (up 0.3%)

• administrative and support service activities (up 0.8%) – driven by travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 5.6%)

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.4%)

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (down 0.8%) – mainly driven by falls in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (down 3.4%) and advertising and market research (down 4.0%)

• other service activities (down 1.6%) – driven by a fall in other personal service activities (down 2.9%)

• transportation and storage (down 0.3%)

Services output is estimated to have risen by 0.3% in November 2025. This follows a fall of 0.3% in October 2025. In November 2025, 7 of the 14 subsectors showed a growth.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in November 2025 came from professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 1.7%. This growth follows a fall in each of the four months from July to October 2025. This was driven by a growth of 4.6% in accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy (following a fall of 2.4% in October) and a growth of 4.5% in scientific research and development (following a fall of 3.5% in October). These contributions to growth were partially offset by a fall of 1.3% in advertising and market research.

Information and communication also contributed positively to services sector output in November 2025, rising by 1.5% after a fall of 0.9% in October 2025. This rise was mainly because of computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which grew by 2.9% after falling by 3.6% in October 2025. This was the largest positive contribution to growth in services output from a single industry, contributing 0.11 percentage points to the services sector and 0.09 percentage points to real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in November 2025.

Output also increased in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 0.6% in November 2025. This was mainly driven by wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.5%).

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level in November 2025 came from real estate activities, which fell by 0.4%. This was driven by a 1.7% fall in the buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental. This follows growth of 1.0% in October and 0.6% in September 2025.

The next largest negative contributions to services output growth were in administrative and support service activities (down 0.4%), accommodation and food service activities (down 0.7%), and education (down 0.3%) in November 2025.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output increased by 0.5% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 5.6%)

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.6%)

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (up 3.9%)

The largest partially offsetting decreases came from other personal service activities (down 2.9%) and accommodation (down 1.3%).

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.2% in November 2025, following no growth in October 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication). The largest negative contributions at the industry level came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental (down 1.7%) and accommodation (down 2.3%). The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (up 6.1%) and wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.5%).

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 83.7% in November 2025, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: November 2025 bulletin.

In the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%. This follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.5% in our previous publication).

Figure 6: Production output grew by 1.1% in November 2025, but still fell by 0.1% in the three months to November – its third consecutive three-monthly fall

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, January 2023 to November 2025, UK

The fall in production output in the three months to November 2025 was largely because of a fall of 0.3% in manufacturing. Mining and quarrying also fell in the three months to November 2025 (down 1.0%). There was growth in both electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 1.1%) and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 0.4%) in the three months to November 2025.

Figure 7: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to November 2025, UK

Notes:

1. Indices are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Weights of these subsectors are available in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in November 2025, following a growth of 1.3% in October 2025 (revised up from a growth of 1.1% in our previous publication). The increase was because of a growth of 2.1% in manufacturing. The three other subsectors all fell in November 2025. Mining and quarrying fell by 2.5%, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply fell by 0.5%, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities fell by 0.6%.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025, with 7 of the 13 subsectors decreasing over this period. The largest negative contributors to this fall over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 9.4%) – largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (down 18.9%); for more information on this industry's movements, see the Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry subsection

• manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 1.2%)

• manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 0.8%)

• manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products (down 2.5%)

These falls were partially offset by growth elsewhere, with the largest positive contributions coming from:

• other manufacturing and repair (up 5.2%)

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 3.3%)

Figure 8 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output grew by 2.1% in November 2025, with output in 7 of the 13 subsectors growing in November 2025. This follows a 0.4% growth in October 2025 (revised down from 0.5% growth in our previous publication) and a 1.3% fall in September 2025 (revised up from a 1.7% fall in our previous publication).

The largest positive contribution came from a growth of 10.7% in the manufacture of transport equipment, mainly driven by a 25.5% increase in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This follows a growth of 9.6% in October 2025 (revised up from 9.5% growth in our previous publication), after a fall of 29.5% in September 2025 (revised down from a fall of 28.6% in our previous publication).

The next largest increases in output in November 2025 were in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 3.8%) and manufacture of basic metals and metal products (up 2.5%).

These growths were partially offset by falls in manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down 1.2%), manufacture of electrical equipment (down 2.6%), and manufacture of rubber and plastic products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 1.0%) in November 2025.

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry

On the month, manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers grew by 25.5% in November 2025. This follows a 9.6% growth in October and a 29.5% fall in September 2025. The industry has now almost returned to the level seen in August 2025 (Figure 9).

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) Chief Executive reported that "car production is normalising following August's cyber incident".

In the three months to November 2025, the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry fell by 18.9%. This fall contributed negative 1.24 percentage points to the fall in manufacturing and detracted 0.11 percentage points from gross domestic product (GDP) growth over this period.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.1% in November 2025, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received.

Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.8%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: November 2025 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have decreased by 1.1% in the three months to November 2025 compared with the three months to August 2025. This is the largest three-monthly fall in construction output since March 2023 (1.4% fall). Both new work and repair and maintenance decreased by 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively. Within new work, the largest negative contributor came from private commercial new work, which fell by 4.5%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 3.7%.

Figure 10: Construction output fell by 1.1% in the three months to November 2025, compared with the three months to August 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to November 2025, Great Britain

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 1.3% in November 2025. This follows a revised decrease of 1.2% in October 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.6% in our previous publication).

The decrease in monthly output in November 2025 came from decreases in both new work and repair and maintenance, which decreased by 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was public new housing, which fell by 10.8%.

Figure 11: Both new work and repair and maintenance fell in the three months to November 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to November 2025, Great Britain

Figure 12 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For November 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 80.4%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8% respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: November 2025 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in November 2025, collected as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

Like October 2025, a range of businesses across the production, services and construction sectors reported comments relating to the Autumn Budget 2025 announcement that took place on 26 November 2025. These comments mainly reported that businesses, or their customers, were waiting for the outcome of the Autumn Budget 2025.

This release gives data for November 2025 for the first time, with October 2025 open for revision because of late and updated source data received since our last publication on 12 December 2025. January 2024 to September 2025 have also been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 22 December 2025.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from January 2025 to October 2025 since our last release on 12 December 2025.

The upwards revision to production growth in October 2025 is largely because of updated data in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry.

The downwards revision to construction growth in October 2025 is because of late and updated survey data received since our last publication.

All three main sectors were revised up in September 2025, as part of our Gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September bulletin, published on 22 December 2025. These upwards revisions to monthly data have contributed to the upwards revision to the services, production and total GDP growth in the three months to October 2025. The revisions in September are largely because of:

• updated survey data in the scientific research and development industry within the services sector
• updated survey data in the manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparations industry and updated source data within the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry within the production sector

More detail on earlier revisions to our time series can be found in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September bulletin. In line with National Accounts Revision Policy, this includes revisions to construction data from January 2024, as the public housing new work series has been corrected. Further detail can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: November 2025 bulletin.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, we do not recommend looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: November 2025 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: November 2025 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: November 2025 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

Our Monthly GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption of this proxy approach is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption (IC) ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the IC ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Statistical designation

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Strengths and limitations

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Restarting of Producer Prices publications

We restarted our monthly business prices publications on 22 October 2025. Business prices data with corrected chain-linking methods and updated historical weights have been used in the monthly GDP dataset for Producer Price Indices (PPI), Import Price Indices (IPI), Export Price Indices (EPI), and Service Producer Price Indices (SPPI) from January 2024 in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations. The rest of the time series will be incorporated in GDP estimates in Blue Book 2026, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Further information on the chain-linking error and the impact of methodological changes in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Impact of correction to chain-linking methodology used in Producer Price Indices and Services Producer Price Indices: October 2025 article, published on 22 October 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our Seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in ourAssessing residual seasonality in published outputs methodology, updated on 30 September 2025.