GDP monthly estimate, UK: November 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

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Contact:
Email Ben Graham

Release date:
13 January 2023

Next release:
10 February 2023

1. Main Points

  • Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2022, following growth of 0.5% (unrevised from our previous publication) in October 2022.

  • Looking at the broader picture, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.

  • The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022, after growth of 0.7% (revised up from a growth 0.6% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contributions came from administrative and support service activities and information and communication.

  • Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% (revised up from a growth of 1.2% in our previous publication) in October 2022; the largest contribution to growth came from food and beverage service activities in a month where the FIFA World Cup started.

  • Production output decreased by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% (revised down from flat in our previous publication) in October 2022; manufacturing was the main driver of negative production growth in November 2022, partially offset by a positive contribution from mining and quarrying.

  • The construction sector was flat in November 2022 after growth of 0.4% (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication) in October 2022.

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2. Monthly GDP

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2022 (Figure 1) following growth of 0.5% in October 2022. Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.3% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020).

The services sector grew by 0.2% in November 2022 and was the main driver of the growth in GDP. Production fell by 0.2% in November 2022 and construction remained flat on the month.

Looking more broadly, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022 compared with the three months to August 2022. There was a 0.1% fall in services, a 1.4% fall in production, with the only growth coming from construction, which increased by 0.3%.

Monthly GDP grew by 0.2% in November 2022 compared with the same month last year. For comparison, monthly GDP grew 1.1% between October 2021 and October 2022 (revised down from a growth of 1.5% in our previous publication).

More about economy, business and jobs

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3. The services sector

Services grew by 0.2% in November 2022, following growth of 0.7% in September 2022 (revised up from growth of 0.6% in our last publication). Figure 3 shows the contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) in November 2022.

The main driver of services growth in November 2022 was administrative and support activities, which grew by 2.0% in November 2022, following growth of 1.7% in October 2022. All six industries within this sub-sector saw growth on the month, with employment activities having the largest contribution with growth of 2.1%. Our Vacancies and jobs in the UK bulletin shows a fall in the number of job vacances in September to November 2022, but the number of vacancies remains high.

The second largest contribution within services came from information and communication, which grew by 1.7% in November 2022 following growth of 0.8% in October 2022. Telecommunications and computer programming, consultancy and related activities were the largest contributors, with growth of 3.9% and 2.4% respectively.

Human health and social work activities grew by 0.9% in November 2022, following growth of 1.6% in October 2022. This was the third largest positive contributor despite a negative contribution from the NHS Test and Trace and coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination programme. However, there is lower data content at this stage for this industry. For more information, please refer to Section 10: Measuring the data.

Transportation and storage fell by 2.7% in November 2022 and had the largest negative contribution. Most industries within the sub-section saw a decrease in output on the month; warehousing and support activities for transportation fell by 2.3% and was the largest contribution to the fall in this sub-section. Strikes took place in the rail transport and postal and courier activities industries in November 2022, which saw falls of 4.7% and 3.1% respectively. While the direct impact of the strikes in these industries can be seen in the scale of the falls, we are not able to isolate the impact of these strikes from other factors across the wider economy.

NHS Test and Trace services and vaccine programmes

NHS Test and Trace and COVID-19 vaccination programme activity fell by 63% in November 2022, following increases in September and October (Figure 4). This was driven by a fall in vaccine activity as the autumn booster programme slows down. Overall, NHS Test and Trace and the COVID-19 vaccination programme contributed an estimated negative 0.2 percentage points to monthly GDP growth.

  • Testing volumes for November 2022 fell by 38.5% from October; laboratory-processed testing and LFD testing volumes both declined and contributed to this decrease.

  • Tracing volumes fell to zero in March 2022 for England and remain there; all contact tracing within the UK stopped as of June 2022.

  • Vaccine volumes were substantially lower than in October 2022, reflecting the slowing down of the autumn booster programme.

A full record of the volume estimates of NHS Test and Trace and vaccination programmes, along with their contribution to GDP growth, can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in November 2022, following growth of 1.5% in October 2022 (revised up from 1.2% in our previous publication). However, consumer-facing services were 8.5% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in November 2022, while all other services were 2.0% above (Figure 5).

The largest contribution towards consumer-facing services growth in November 2022 came from food and beverage service activities, which grew by 2.2%, in a month where the FIFA World Cup started on 20 November 2022.

There were also positive contributions from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 2.5% and travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which grew by 3.7%.

The largest negative contributor to consumer-facing services was sports activities and amusement and recreation activities, which fell by 3.2% in November 2022, a month where less football matches in the UK took place to allow the FIFA World Cup to be held. Retail trade fell by 0.4% and more information on this can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: November 2022 bulletin.

Overall, services fell by 0.1% in the three months to November 2022 compared with the three months to August 2022. Negative growth in 11 of the 14 services sub-sectors was offset by positive contributions in the other three.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: November 2022 bulletin.

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4. The production sector

Production output fell by 0.2% in November 2022, after a fall of 0.1% in October 2022 (revised down from flat in the last publication). The fall in manufacturing was the largest contributor to the production sector’s negative growth.

Manufacturing was the largest negative contributor, falling by 0.5% in the month. The main drivers for the fall in manufacturing were the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 4.3%) and the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 2.8%). Manufacturing saw falls in 6 of its 13 sub-sectors, these falls were enough to offset the growth seen in the other 7 (Figure 7).

Manufacture of transport equipment was the largest positive contributor (up 1.1%), with the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (up 1.3%) accounting for most of the growth. This is its third consecutive growth following a rise of 6.0% in October 2022 and 2.0% in September 2022.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply fell by 0.4%, with a 3.2% fall in manufacture of gas and a 0.9% growth in electric power generation, transmission and distribution. Energy trends data (XLS, 121KB) produced by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) show the average temperature in November 2022 was 1.3 degrees higher than in November 2021.

Water supply and sewerage grew by 0.2% in November 2022, with growth in three of the four industries. This growth was driven by both sewerage and waste collection, treatment and disposal activities, which increased by 1.0% and 1.5% respectively.

Mining and quarrying was the largest positive contributor to production, with growth of 2.8% in November 2022. This was driven by extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas with a 3.7% growth.

Overall, production decreased by 1.4% in the three months to November 2022, compared with the three months to August 2022, driven primarily by manufacturing, which fell by 1.2%.

There has been a downward trend in manufacturing, since its last positive three-month on three-month growth in July 2021.

There were also declines in mining and quarrying, water supply and sewerage, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which fell by 1.7%, 1.1% and 3.0% respectively in the three months to November 2022, compared with the three months to August.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: November 2022 bulletin.

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5. The construction sector

Monthly construction output saw flat growth (0.0%) in volume terms in November 2022 (Figure 8). This follows an increase of 0.4% in October 2022, which is revised down 0.4 percentage points in this release.

The flat growth in construction output in November 2022 was made up from a decrease in new work (down 0.4%), offset by an increase in repair and maintenance (up 0.6%), with six out of the nine sectors seeing an increase on the month.

At the sector level, the main positive contributors were seen in infrastructure new work and non-housing repair and maintenance, which increased 4.2% and 2.4% respectively. The main negative contributors were seen in private housing with new work and repair and maintenance falling 4.8% and 1.7%, respectively.

Anecdotal evidence from the Monthly Business Survey for Construction and Allied Trades continues the narrative around increased prices for certain construction products. However, prices have started to ease from their high level in mid-2022, as estimated by our Construction Output Price Index (OPI) Quarter 3 (Jan to Mar) 2022 dataset. Despite declining slightly, anecdotal evidence suggests these historically high levels of prices are leading to more projects being placed on hold (whether temporarily or permanently).

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: November 2022 bulletin.

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6. Cross-industry themes

There was anecdotal evidence to suggest that the FIFA World Cup had benefited some businesses with pubs, restaurants and units involved in the sale of wine, pizza delivery, advertising and the provision of security for licensed premises reporting an increase in turnover.

While the direct impact of the strikes by postal and rail workers can be seen in the rail transport and postal and courier activities industries, we are not able to isolate the impact of these strikes from other factors across the wider economy. However, there was anecdotal evidence to suggest this industrial action had an impact across a wide range of industries, for example wholesale trade and manufacture and repair of jewellery.

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7. Revisions to monthly GDP

This release gives data for November 2022 for the first time and incorporates revisions to monthly data from January 2021 to September 2022 as published in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2022 bulletin published on 22 December 2022. October 2022 is also open to revision, taking on updated survey data. Table 2 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and sectors for 2022, since the last monthly publication on 12 December 2022.

The next monthly GDP release on 10 February 2023 will see revisions to the periods January to November 2022 in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy. These revisions will be consistent with the first quarterly estimate of GDP release published on the same day, which will cover the period from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2022 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022.

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8. Monthly GDP data

Monthly gross domestic product by gross value added
Dataset | Released 13 January 2023
The gross value added (GVA) tables showing the monthly and annual growths and indices as published within the monthly gross domestic product (GDP) statistical bulletin.

Contributions to monthly GDP
Dataset | Released 13 January 2023
Contributions to growth within monthly gross domestic product (GDP), UK.

Monthly gross domestic product: time series
Dataset MGDP | Released 13 January 2023
Monthly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) containing constant price gross value added (GVA) data for the UK.

Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places
Dataset | Released 13 January 2023
Monthly index values for monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and the main sectors in the UK to four decimal places.

Revisions triangles for monthly GDP
Dataset | Released 13 January 2023
Comparison of gross domestic product (GDP) first estimates against estimates published later.

Health volume adjustments and contribution to GDP growth
Dataset | Released 13 January 2023
Volume estimates for the NHS Test and Trace services and vaccine programmes and their impact on real GDP.

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9. Glossary

Contribution to growth

Contribution to growth indicates how many percentage points a sector or industry is adding or removing from a given growth rate, usually headline gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

A measure of the economic activity produced by a country or region. GDP growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are three approaches used to measure GDP:

  • the output approach 

  • the expenditure approach 

  • the income approach

Index numbers

Data relative to a given base value, which typically refers to a year.

Rolling three-month growth

Rolling three-month growth takes the average level of three consecutive months (for example, April, May and June), and compares it with the average level of the previous three months (for example, January, February and March). The rolling three-month growth rate is often used alongside the monthly growth rate, as the latter can be more volatile.

Real GDP

Real GDP excludes any inflationary issues and reflects the changes in volume terms. This can also be referred to as volume estimates of GDP.

For further definitions, please see our Glossary of economic terms.

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10. Measuring the data

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

There have been large movements in UK gross domestic product (GDP) over the course of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This is primarily in response to public health restrictions and voluntary social distancing that have been in place over this period. Given the size of these effects, there has been a focus on where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

However, the coronavirus pandemic has brought many measurement challenges that have created more uncertainty around our three approaches. This has led to an initial divergence between the output and average estimate, which is then reflected in how we compare monthly and quarterly estimates of GDP. Further information is available in our Measuring monthly and quarterly UK gross domestic product during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic article.

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Within the monthly GDP publication, government data are sourced on a quarterly basis; a monthly forecast is used to estimate data for the monthly round until quarterly data are available. While this is a standard practice with many of our data sources, pre-empting the behaviour of a series during a pandemic, in particular for health and education, comes with more uncertainty than usual. Therefore, caution is advised when looking at the monthly estimates beyond the latest published quarter.

We are aware of reclassifications or relocations of companies that may impact these published estimates of GDP and associated breakdowns. We are monitoring the data and will seek to implement any resulting changes into the national accounts as soon as possible.

Additional bank holiday in September 2022 for the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II

For the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II there was an additional bank holiday on 19 September 2022. This led to one fewer working day in September 2022. This should be considered when interpreting the movements involving September and October 2022. Previous experience of additional, or substitute, bank holidays in 2002 and 2012 highlighted that such events might lead to more volatile movements in the monthly path of GDP. For further information, see our A guide to interpreting monthly gross domestic product methodology.

As part of our usual seasonal adjustment practice, prior adjustments are made for calendar effects (where statistically significant), such as returns that do not comply with the standard trading period, regular bank holidays, and Easter. Adjustments for repeating and predictable effects are estimated and removed from the final seasonally adjusted series, for example, a permanent change in the seasonal pattern. Adjustments for effects that do not repeat are estimated and removed during the seasonal adjustment process, but are then put back into the final seasonally adjusted series, for example the effect of extreme weather or one-off quantifiable events.

The additional bank holiday in September 2022 is not regular, so there was not an explicit adjustment to account for it as part of the seasonal adjustment process. However, indirectly, the timing of the bank holiday will affect the number of trading days in the period where it falls. There is likely to be some impact on our GDP estimates (positive or negative depending on the sector) in September 2022 because of the additional bank holiday. This is an ad hoc effect, so it did not get removed from our GDP seasonally adjusted estimates.

In our figures, we reviewed the trading day patterns of all industries, considering the timing of the additional bank holiday, ensuring the genuine activity from the bank holiday was reflected in our published GDP seasonally adjusted estimates. We will continue to review our seasonal adjustment parameters on a regular basis.

Users are therefore likely to find an effect related to one fewer working day in September in the seasonally adjusted series. Caution should be taken when interpreting the seasonally adjusted movements involving September 2022, including the three rolling three-month estimates.

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11. Strengths and limitations

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

The latest comparisons of month on same month a year ago should be treated with caution given the impact of base effects on growth rates because of the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic throughout 2020 and 2021. Such comparisons and growth rates can be found in our accompanying dataset.

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13. Cite this statistical bulletin

Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 13 January 2023, ONS website, statistical bulletin, GDP monthly estimate, UK: November 2022

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Contact details for this Statistical bulletin

Ben Graham
gdp@ons.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 1633 455284