GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2026

In the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4%, following a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.7% in our last publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.8% in the three months to April 2026.

• Services output grew by 0.5%, after growing by 0.6% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.7% in our previous publication).

• Production output showed no growth following a growth of 0.2% in the three months to May 2026 (revised up from a growth of 0.1% in our last publication).

• Construction output grew by 0.3%; this follows a growth of 1.5% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 1.6% in our previous publication).

In the month to June 2026:

• Monthly GDP grew by 0.3% in June 2026, after showing no growth in May 2026 (revised down from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in April 2026.

• The growth in June was because of a rise of 0.4% in services and was partially offset by falls of 0.2% in production, and 0.1% in construction.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026. Despite the rate of growth slowing, this is the seventh consecutive three-month on three-month growth and follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May (revised down from a growth of 0.7% in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.8% (unrevised from our previous publication) in the three months to April 2026.

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from the services sector, which grew by 0.5% in the three months to June 2026. Construction grew by 0.3% and production saw no growth over the same period.

In this release, data were open for revisions back to April 2026. Details regarding the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 8: Revisions to GDP. 

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative), as more data become available and we subsequently update for that additional information. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information on revisions, and our recent blog post on managing the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy when producing GDP.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in June 2026, following no growth in May 2026 (revised down from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication). Services output grew by 0.4%, while production fell by 0.2%, and construction fell by 0.1%.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.5%, production grew by 0.3%, while construction fell by 2.0%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in June 2026.

Services output grew 0.5% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026, and was the main contributor to the growth seen in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months to June 2026. This follows a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.7% in our previous publication), and a growth of 0.8% in the three months to April 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.9% in our previous publication).

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.5% in the three months to June 2026, following a growth of 0.6% in the three months to May 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to June 2026

There was a rise in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to June 2026, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• Information and communication (up 2.7%), which was mainly driven by a growth of 3.7% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities

• Professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.7%), driven by growths in advertising and market research (up 4.3%), scientific research and development (up 3.9%), and legal activities (up 2.5%)

• Transportation and storage (up 1.2%), driven by growths of 2.8% in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport, and 2.9% in postal and courier activities

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level came from:

• Administrative and support service activities (down 0.9%), driven by falls of 2.8% in office administrative, office support and other business support activities and 7.9% in security and investigation activities

• Education (down 0.4%), driven by a fall in non-market education (down 1.0%); this aligns with the closure of some schools during the heatwave conditions seen across much of the UK during June

On the month, services output grew by 0.4% in June 2026. This follows a growth of 0.1% in May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in April 2026. In June 2026, 8 of the 14 subsectors grew.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in June 2026 came from professional, scientific and technical activities (up 1.0%). This was driven by growths in scientific research and development (up 2.8%), reaching its highest level since January 2025 (Figure 5), and legal activities (up 1.8%).

The second largest positive contribution came from administrative and support service activities (up 1.8%). This was driven by growths in office administrative, office support and other business support activities (up 3.5%), rental and leasing activities (up 2.8%), and services to buildings and landscape activities (up 4.3%).

Information and communication also contributed positively, with a growth of 0.9% in June 2026. This was mainly driven by a growth of 1.3% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities, and growths in motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (up 3.8%) and information service activities (up 2.8%).

The largest negative contribution from a single industry to both services output and real GDP growth in June 2026 was wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.9%). This contributed negative 0.09 percentage points to services output and negative 0.07 percentage points to real GDP growth.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output grew by 0.3% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026.

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• Accommodation (up 3.9%)

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.8%)

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.5%)

• Other personal service activities (up 2.3%)

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• Food and beverage service activities (down 1.6%)

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 2.4%)

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% in June 2026, following an unrevised growth of 0.5% in May 2026, and an unrevised fall of 0.4% in April 2026. The largest positive contribution at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.0%). This industry was also the largest positive contribution from a single industry to services output, and second largest positive contribution to real GDP growth in June 2026. The industry contributed 0.05 percentage points to services output and 0.04 percentage points to real GDP growth. For more information, see our Retail sales, Great Britain: June 2026 bulletin.

Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the second largest positive contributor, with a growth of 2.3%. The largest negative contribution came from travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which fell by 4.6%.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 87.2% in June 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stands at 97.5%, 97.6%, and 97.8%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: June 2026 bulletin.

In the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026, the production sector is estimated to have shown no growth, following a growth of 0.2% in May 2026 (revised up from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication).

Figure 7: Production output fell by 0.2% in the month of June 2026 and experienced no growth in the three months to June 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, UK, January 2023 to June 2026

In the three months to June 2026 production showed no growth, with positive contributions coming from growths of 1.0% and 0.2% in manufacturing and mining and quarrying, respectively. These were offset by falls in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which fell by 2.3%, and in water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities, which fell by 3.7%.

Figure 8: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2023 to June 2026

On the month, production output fell by 0.2% in June 2026, following a fall of 0.7% in May 2026 (revised down from a 0.5% fall in our previous publication), and a 0.4% growth in April 2026 (revised up from a 0.2% growth in our previous publication). This was driven by falls in manufacturing (down 0.5%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 1.5%), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 0.3%). The only subsector to see a monthly increase was mining and quarrying, which grew by 5.1%.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 1.0% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026, with 8 of the 13 subsectors increasing over this period.

The largest positive contributions came from:

• Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 4.2%)

• Manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.0%)

• Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 2.6%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 0.7%)

• manufacture of electrical equipment (down 3.1%)

• other manufacturing and repair (down 0.8%)

Figure 9 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

In the month of June 2026, manufacturing output fell by 0.5%, with 7 of the 13 subsectors decreasing. This follows a fall of 0.2% in May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication), and an unrevised growth of 0.5% in April 2026.

The largest negative contribution came from a 5.1% fall in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, following a growth of 0.2% in May 2026 (revised down from a growth of 0.6% in our previous publication). The next largest negative contributions came from the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.8%) and the manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing (down 1.3%). These falls were partially offset by growths in other manufacturing and repair (up 3.2%), the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (up 1.0%), and the manufacture of transport equipment (up 0.8%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 88.1% in June 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.9%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Production, UK: June 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in the three months to June 2026 compared with the three months to March 2026. Both new work, and repair and maintenance grew over the period, increasing by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Within new work, the largest positive contribution came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 1.9%. In repair and maintenance, the largest positive contribution came from public housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.5%.

Figure 10: Construction output grew by 0.3% in the three months to June 2026, compared with the three months to March 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2023 to June 2026

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in June 2026. This follows a fall of 0.8% in May 2026, and a fall of 0.1% in April 2026.

The decrease in monthly output in June 2026 came solely from a decrease in new work, which fell by 0.3%. Repair and maintenance showed no growth. At the sector level, the main contribution to the monthly decrease was public housing new work, which fell by 11.0%.

Figure 11: New work decreased while repair and maintenance showed no growth in June 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2023 to June 2026

Figure 12 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For June 2026, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 75.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.8%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2025 is 97.3%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2026 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in June 2026, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

The conflict in Iran, which started at the end of February, has been referred to by various businesses in terms of June 2026 data. These comments were cited in some manufacturing industries, wholesale, land transport services, warehousing and travel agencies. However, it should be noted that fewer comments to the survey referring to the Iran war were provided in June 2026 compared with previous months, which coincided with a period of ceasefire. This downward trend was also cited in our Business Insights and impact of the UK economy: 2 July 2026 bulletin. In June 2026, 31% of businesses with 10 or more employees reported concern about international conflict affecting supply chains over the next year; this was a continued fall from the recent peak this April (38%).

The FIFA Football World Cup, which started on 11 June 2026, was cited as a reason for an increase in turnover in June 2026 by businesses in industries such as the manufacture of alcohol, wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing activities, television production and advertising.

The Met Office reported that the UK provisionally recorded its second warmest June on record (PDF, 4.3MB). Some positive impacts were cited by some businesses across a range of manufacturing industries, retail, accommodation, and amusement and recreation activities. On the reverse, the warm weather was also cited as having a negative impact in terms of construction activities and also in education where schools were closed because of the heatwave.

Our Economic activity and social change real-time indicators, UK: 6 August 2026 dashboard provides early insights into UK economic activity for July 2026.

Indicators of consumer demand strengthened in July 2026. Retail footfall recovered strongly from the heatwave-affected conditions seen in June 2026 and was higher than in the same month a year earlier. Annual growth in the estimated quantity demanded per transaction of automotive fuel also picked up slightly, following falls in petrol and diesel prices during June 2026. Our Retail sales, Great Britain release for July 2026 will be published on 21 August 2026.

Housing indicators provided mixed signals during the month. The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings in England and Wales increased compared with both June 2026 and the same month a year earlier, suggesting continued resilience in new-build housing activity. In contrast, the seasonally adjusted number of new sales listings on the Rightmove website fell for the fourth consecutive month, while the average time a property spent on the market increased further, indicating softer conditions in the housing market.

The labour market showed further signs of improvement. The number of potential redundancies, measured by HR1 forms submitted to the Insolvency Service, fell in June 2026 and declined further in July. This continued easing follows a peak, in May 2026, which was the highest level seen since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Indicators relating to travel activity were also stronger in July 2026, with the seasonally adjusted number of UK flights increasing compared with both June 2026 and the same month a year earlier.

According to our recent Business insights and impact on the UK economy releases, economic uncertainty (32%) remained the most reported challenge affecting turnover for trading businesses in July 2026 and was broadly stable with June; for businesses with 10 or more employees, cost of labour (36%) was the most reported challenge. Almost three in five (57%) businesses expressed some degree of concern regarding energy prices in late July 2026, broadly stable from early July; for businesses with 10 or more employees, the proportion was 70%. Three in five (60%) businesses expressed some degree of concern regarding fuel prices in late July 2026; for businesses with 10 or more employees, the proportion was higher at 70%, a 3-percentage-point rise from early July.

This release gives data for June 2026 for the first time. In this release, April and May 2026 are open for revision.

Table 1 shows the monthly revisions in April and May 2026.

Revisions are required to reflect updated survey and prices data.

Data revisions up to 2024 will be published in our Blue Book 2026 impact article on 20 August 2026, and any additional updates to data from 2025 onwards, will be published in the Quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2026.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP low level industry data dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: June 2026

• Index of Production, UK: June 2026

• Construction output in Great Britain: June 2026

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in our:

• Index of Services response rates dataset

• Index of Production response dataset

• Construction response rates dataset

Our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ from those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 'accredited official statistics'.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology web page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this publication, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, Construction or Manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to June 2026.

This topic is explored further in our article on assessing residual seasonality, published on 12 May 2026.

Since May 2026, we have published non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series in our updated low level industry dataset. There are conceptual differences between indirect and direct seasonal adjustment. Indirect seasonal adjustment is the aggregation of the directly seasonally adjusted component series, typically chosen at an optimal level, and depending on user needs. For the National Accounts, GDP aggregates are created with indirect seasonal adjustment. Because of processing, including benchmarking and chain-linking, direct seasonal adjustment of the non-seasonally adjusted GDP aggregate will not give the same results as the indirect seasonally adjusted output.

Upcoming changes to structure of datasets

We would like to notify users that there will be some changes to the structure of our published datasets from September 2026.

As a result of improvements in the upcoming Blue Book 2026, we will merge the industries of mining of coal and lignite (SIC industry 05) with the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas extraction (SIC industry 06) in our low-level industries dataset and quarterly low-level aggregates dataset.

We will also no longer publish the chained volume measures for the manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats (SIC industry 10.4). This will still form part of the aggregate series for the manufacture of food products (SIC industry 10) and higher aggregates. Current prices will continue to be published in the quarterly low-level aggregates dataset.

These changes will be implemented in our Quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2026 and the Monthly GDP release on 15 October 2026. Further information on these changes will be published in an upcoming article, Blue Book 2026: industry impact analysis.