Index of Production, UK: October 2023

• Production output growth for August to October 2023 fell by 0.7% when compared with May to July 2023.

• In the three months to October 2023, there were falls in "manufacturing" (0.9%) and "electricity and gas" (0.5%); these were partially offset by rises in "mining and quarrying' (1.2%) and "water supply and sewerage" (0.1%).

• Monthly production output is estimated to have fallen 0.8% in October 2023; this follows no growth (0.0%) in September 2023.

• The monthly decrease in output for October 2023 resulted from a decline in two of the four production sectors, with "manufacturing" being the main contributor to the monthly fall (1.1%) and "electricity and gas" providing a smaller contribution (1.8%); this was partially offset by rises in "water supply and sewerage" (1.6%) and "mining and quarrying" (0.2%).

• Monthly manufacturing output decreased by 1.1%, with decreases in 10 of its 13 sub-sectors during October 2023; the largest contributing sub-sections to the monthly fall were "manufacture of machinery and equipment" and "manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products", which decreased 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively. 

• Further analysis of the effect on our monthly Index of Production (IoP) estimate is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) monthly estimate, UK: October 2023 bulletin, published 13 December 2023.

The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources. It is calculated by taking turnover and removing the impact of price changes, or by using direct volume estimates.

Most of these data are collected as "turnover values" through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). In addition, direct volume series are collected by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.

The Office for National Statistics' (ONS) Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is fully online. Business owners can log on from any location and submit their data at an appropriate time. Most other data in the IoP come from the DESNZ, and therefore will be less affected than the survey data.

From January 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included across 64 production industries for small and medium-sized businesses. For more information, see our VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology article.

A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue (XLS, 1.9MB).

Response Rates for October 2023

For October 2023, the response rates were 73.2%, based on forms returned. This accounted for 84.9% of total turnover coverage of the sample population. Historical information can be found in our IoP response rates dataset.

Quality and methodology    

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Index of Production Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Additional bank holiday in May 2023 for the Coronation of King Charles III     

There was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. While adjustments are made for regular calendar effects, there was no explicit adjustment for this event. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector. This should be taken into account when interpreting monthly, and three-month movements over recent months since May 2023.   

Revisions to IoP     

In line with the National Accounts revision policy, this release gives data for October 2023 only. There are no previous periods open for revision.   

In the next IoP release due to be published on 12 January 2024, revisions will be seen back to January 2022 in the dataset. This is to incorporate revisions that will be published as part of the Quarterly National Accounts release, due to be published on 22 December 2023.

Updates to monthly GDP methods and data sources in Blue Book 2023  

A number of changes have been made to the methods and data sources used in compiling monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and the output approach to measuring GDP estimates as part of Blue Book 2023.  

For further information on the updates, please see Section 9: Measuring the data of our GDP monthly estimate, UK: October 2023 bulletin.

Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of GDP

The OSR completed a review of the practices around the preparation and release of information about revisions to estimates of GDP in our Impact of Blue Book 2023 article released on 1 September 2023. This will cover the processes and quality assurance in making revisions to GDP and the potential improvements to early estimates of GDP enabled through enhanced access to data. It will also cover the communication of:

• revisions to GDP

• the story behind the most recent set of revisions in particular

• uncertainty in early estimates of GDP   

The ONS has already started looking into the recommendations of this review and will set out plans more fully during January 2024.