Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 23 April 2026

In March 2026:

• Consumer activity grew as both retail footfall and seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 7% and 3%, respectively, compared with February 2026, and consumers spent more on automotive fuel (BT Active Intelligence, Revolut, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The Direct Debit failure rate increased in March 2026 (2.41%) when compared with March 2025 (2.19%); recipients receiving State Pension had a lower failure rate for "Electricity and gas" payments (0.3% in March 2026) than consumers in general (2.9%), while recipients receiving Universal Credit had a higher failure rate (12.0%) (Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• Business and workforce indicators were more positive than the previous month; a net 4% of firms reported a month-on-month increase in turnover, up 1 percentage point compared with February 2026, and the number of potential redundancies fell by 3% over the same period (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns, Insolvency Service HR1 forms). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Wholesale energy prices and automotive fuel prices at pumps increased compared with February 2026, as markets reacted to the conflict in the Middle East (National Gas Transmission, Elexon, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero). Section 5: Energy.

• Transport indicators showed mixed activity compared with the previous month, with UK flights seeing a 2% increase but ship visits to major UK ports remaining broadly unchanged (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

• New vehicle registrations increased by 15% compared with February 2026, and increased by 8% when compared with March 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)). Section 6: Transport.

• The number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 6% compared with February 2026, and by 5% when compared with March 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

2. Indicators with “SA” in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with “NSA” in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.

3. Existing EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

March 2026 saw increased retail footfall and debit card spending compared with February 2026. Demand for automotive fuel increased despite an increase in price, as consumers reacted to potential supply concerns.

UK retail footfall

UK retail footfall increased by 7% in March 2026, compared with February 2026, reflecting normal seasonal patterns as the weather improves and daylight hours increase. However, total footfall was 8% lower than in March 2025, possibly because of weaker consumer confidence and a continuing shift to online shopping.

Footfall increased in all three site types compared with February 2026; local centres, retail parks, and city centres were higher by 9%, 7%, and 5%, respectively.

However, footfall decreased across all three site types when compared with March 2025; retail parks, local centres, and city centres fell by 12%, 9%, and 5% respectively.

Retail footfall increased in each of the 12 regions (including UK countries and English regions) in March 2026, compared with February 2026. Increases of 8% were seen in the East Midlands, London, the East of England, and Wales.

When compared with March 2025, retail footfall decreased across all regions. The largest decreases were in Wales (14%), Northern Ireland (13%), and Yorkshire and the Humber (13%).

Figure 2: Retail footfall decreased in all UK regions in March 2026, when compared with March 2025

Change in retail footfall by region, UK, March 2026, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology.

2. Data are available in further detail, broken down by region and site type, in our accompanying UK retail footfall dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 3% in March 2026, compared with February 2026. Increases were seen across all spend categories with the biggest change seen in "Transport", climbing by 5%. This increase reflects both an increase in the price of automotive fuel, and an increase in demand.

When compared with March 2025, seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 12%. The largest changes were seen in "Services", "Entertainment", and "Utilities", increasing by 29%, 18%, and 17%, respectively.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel increased by 5 percentage points in March 2026, when compared with both the previous month, and with March 2025. This reflects a spike in global oil prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, beginning on 28 February 2026.

The growth rate for the average fuel demand per transaction increased by 1 percentage point in March 2026, compared with the previous month, and increased by 3 percentage points when compared with March 2025.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

This month, we have changed the way we publish our Direct Debit transaction amounts and failure rates. Previously, Direct Debit average amount and failure rates were published for all Direct Debit payers (which included both consumer and business payments), broken down into six service categories: electricity and gas, fitness facilities, loans, mortgages, water, and other.

Firstly, we are changing the way we calculate Direct Debit average amount and failure rates from "all Direct Debit payments" to consumer only Direct Debit payments. This improves the accuracy of the dataset as an indicator of household financial resilience. Secondly, we are expanding our Direct Debit breakdowns. Alongside our regular Direct Debit average amount and failure rates across the six service categories, we will be providing additional breakdowns for those who are benefit recipients, the type of benefit received, as well as by salary quintile.

Please note, when interpreting these data, that financial arrangements can be complex. Financial statistics are traditionally compiled at the individual or household level, while our Direct Debit statistics are derived from anonymised account-level data and are unlikely to map one-to-one with underlying economic units.

Furthermore, structural changes in payment behaviour may affect trends over time. For example, gradual shifts from alternative payment methods (for example, pre-payment meters) to Direct Debit, or changes in how households allocate payments across accounts, can alter observed levels and trends independently of underlying financial conditions.

As a result, movements in these indicators should be interpreted carefully. Additionally, these updated data have not yet been adjusted for seasonal variations. More detailed information on this indicator can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

The total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 1.7% in March 2026 when compared with March 2025. "Water" was the category with the largest year-on-year increase, rising by 18.8% from March 2025. "Electricity and gas" was the only category to record a year-on-year fall, decreasing by 0.2% over the same period.

The Direct Debit failure rate increased by 10% in March 2026 when compared with March 2025. Year-on-year increases were seen across all categories: "Electricity and gas" (32.1%), "Loans" (20.5%), "Water" (10.6%), "Mortgages" (3.6%) "Fitness facilities" (3.0%), and "Other" (8.3%). 

We identify benefit recipients based on accounts that both receive one of the specified benefits within a calendar year, and also make a Direct Debit payment during a given month.

Generally, accounts which received State Pension payments had a lower failure rate for "Electricity and gas" payments (0.3% in March 2026) than all consumers in general (2.9%). This includes recipients of the means-tested Pension Credit (1.1%). By contrast, recipients of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) (5.9%), Child Benefits (7.0%), and Universal Credit (12.0%), have a higher failure rate.

Data relating to salary quintiles are based on accounts that receive a specific salary payment and make a Direct Debit payment, both within a given month. These salary payments include a specific accounting reference (Real Time Information "hash").

Accounts with the lowest monthly salary payment (quintile 1) have the highest "Electricity and gas" failure rate (5.6% in March 2026), whereas accounts with the highest monthly salary payment (quintile 5) have the lowest failure rate (0.5%).

There is some evidence that the failure rate has risen faster for those on lower incomes, however these trends should be interpreted with caution, as outlined in the introduction to this section.

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Business and workforce indicators were more positive than in the previous month. A higher net proportion of firms reported month‑on‑month growth in turnover, led by the services sector, and the number of potential redundancies fell.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover. 

VAT returns are forms submitted by businesses to HMRC that detail how much VAT they have charged (turnover VAT), and how much they have paid to other businesses (expenditure VAT). This dataset only uses VAT returns received within the first seven days after each reporting month to allow for early (flash) estimates. This accounted for approximately 9,120 businesses in March 2026. Quarterly or annual reporting businesses are not included, as they do not file returns every month and are not part of the flash estimate pipeline.

Figure 8: The number of firms reporting an increased turnover in March 2026 was 4% higher than those reporting a decreased turnover, up 1 percentage point from February 2026

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2023 to March 2026, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.

2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.

3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

A net 4% of firms reported a month‑on‑month increase in turnover in March 2026. This was a 1 percentage point increase compared with February 2026 and was above normal month‑on‑month variation.

The services sector, the largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP), had a net 5% of firms reporting an increase in turnover in March 2026, compared with the previous month. This was also a 1 percentage point increase from February 2026 and above normal month‑on‑month variation.

In the construction sector, the proportion of firms reporting an increase in turnover exceeded those reporting a decrease by 2%, which was 2 percentage points higher than in February 2026.

In the production sector, a net 3% of firms reported an increase in turnover in March 2026, up 2 percentage points compared with February 2026.

In the agriculture sector, a net 1% of firms reported a decrease in turnover, an increase of 4 percentage points compared with February 2026.

For the construction, production and agriculture sectors, diffusion indices in March 2026 were within their respective limits of normal month‑on‑month variation.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry's contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index. The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset is available.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies decreased by 3% in March 2026, compared with February 2026. The decline mainly reflected a relatively large fall in the Banking and Finance sector, where HR1 notices often cluster in February following year‑end financial results. Over the same period, the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 9%.

When compared with March 2025, the number of potential redundancies decreased by 11%. Potential redundancies fell across most industries in March 2026, compared with March 2025. This reflected the relatively high number of HR1 notifications submitted in March 2025, following a concentration of restructuring announcements. Over the same period, the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 10%.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our HR1: potential redundancies dataset.

Wholesale energy prices surged in March 2026 in response to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 65% in March 2026, compared with February 2026, from 2.733 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 4.507p/kWh. The price increased by 30% when compared with March 2025, which had a monthly SAP of 3.476p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity increased by 20% in March 2026, compared with February 2026, from an average price of 7.953p/kWh to 9.517p/kWh. The price increased by 8% when compared with March 2025, which had a monthly price of 8.795p/kWh.

The increase in wholesale gas prices is because of the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which is a vital energy producing region. Traders repriced wholesale gas in response to the perceived increased risk to global supply chains.

Electricity wholesale prices increased by a lesser extent because the impact of increased gas prices was softened by the production of electricity from renewables.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

New vehicle registrations

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations increased by 15% in March 2026 compared with February 2026, and increased by 8% when compared with March 2025.

The largest month‑on‑month increases in new registrations were recorded for business cars, which rose by 38%, and private cars, which rose by 29%. Even allowing for the usual March uplift associated with the introduction of the new 26‑plate, registrations in March were particularly strong. This partly reflects buyers bringing forward purchases ahead of tax and regulatory changes taking effect in April 2026.

The seasonally adjusted number of new registrations for electric vehicles recorded the largest month‑on‑month increases in March 2026. Battery electric vehicle registrations increased by 14%, hybrid electric vehicle registrations increased by 44%, and plug‑in hybrid electric vehicle registrations increased by 59%. By comparison, registrations of petrol vehicles increased by 1% compared with the previous month, while registrations of diesel vehicles fell by 3%.

The proportion of new cars registered that were electric increased by 7 percentage points to 57% in March 2026, compared with the previous month, and by 8 percentage points compared with March 2025.

Our accompanying SMMT vehicle production and registrations dataset is available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights increased by 2% in March 2026 compared with February 2026, and was 1% higher than March 2025. Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports remained broadly unchanged in March 2026, compared with the previous month. Over this period, the number of cargo and tanker visits decreased by 2%, following the conflict in the Middle East, while other ship visits increased by 2%.

When compared with March 2025, the seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 7%, with cargo and tanker visits decreasing by 12%, and other ship visits decreasing by 2%. This partly reflects a consolidation of shipping activity towards major continental European ports over the last two years.  

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 6% in March 2026, compared with February 2026, and also decreased by 5% when compared with March 2025.

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings increased by 5% in March 2026, compared with the previous month, but decreased by 4% when compared with March.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2: How we measure real-time indicators of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 16 April 2026.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• System Average Price (SAP) of gas dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 23 April 2026.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 16 April 2026.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 15 January 2026.

• SMMT vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 10 April 2026.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.