Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 21 May 2026

In April 2026:

• Consumer behaviour was mixed; UK retail footfall remained broadly unchanged compared with March 2026 and decreased by 6% when compared with April 2025, while seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased both by 1% compared with March 2026, and by 11% when compared with April 2025 (BT Active Intelligence, Revolut).

• The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate was broadly unchanged at 2.39%, compared with March 2026 (2.38%), but was 9% higher when compared with April 2025 (2.19%) (Vocalink and Pay.UK).

• The number of new online job adverts and the number of potential redundancies decreased by 2% and 6%, respectively, when compared with April 2025 (Textkernel, Insolvency Service HR1 forms).

• Automotive fuel prices increased while wholesale energy prices decreased, compared with March 2026, but both remained higher than April 2025 as markets continued to respond to the conflict in the Middle East (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, National Gas Transmission, Elexon).

• Transport indicators remained broadly stable compared with the previous month, although ship visits to major UK ports decreased by 6% when compared with the previous year (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL).

• New vehicle registrations decreased by 9% compared with March 2026 but increased by 21% when compared with April 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)).

• The number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings increased by 4%, compared with March 2026 and increased by 2% when compared with April 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government).

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Indicators with “SA” in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with “NSA” in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.
3. Existing EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.
4. Textkernel data for March 2026 has been suppressed because of issues with obtaining job advert data from a major source.

In April 2026, retail footfall was broadly unchanged compared with the previous month, but had decreased when compared with the same month of the previous year. Debit card spending increased month-on-month and was also higher than a year ago (unadjusted for inflation). The growth rate for the average fuel demand per transaction decreased significantly compared with both the previous month and when compared with the same month in 2025. This is following large increases in the annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel. Direct Debit average transaction amounts and failure rates continued to increase when compared with the same month one year ago. Recipients of Universal Credit reported the highest Direct Debit failure rate for "Electricity and gas" payments.

UK retail footfall

UK retail footfall remained broadly unchanged in April 2026, compared with March 2026, but decreased by 6% when compared with April 2025.

Footfall decreased in retail parks and district and local centres by 3% and 1%, respectively, and increased in town and city centres by 2%, when compared with March 2026.

Footfall decreased across all three site types when compared with April 2025; retail parks, town and city centres, and district and local centres fell by 14%, 5%, and 4%, respectively.

Retail footfall increased in 5 of the 11 regions (including Great Britain countries and English regions) when compared with March 2026, decreased in 4 of the 11 regions, and remained broadly unchanged in 2. Data for Northern Ireland were unavailable.

When compared with March 2026, the largest increases were found in West Midlands (3%) and Wales (2%), while the region with the largest decrease was the East Midlands (3%).

When compared with April 2025, retail footfall decreased in 10 of the 11 regions. The largest decreases were Wales (12%) and Yorkshire and The Humber (11%), with the only increase found in London (2%).

Figure 2: Retail footfall decreased in all but one UK region in April 2026 when compared with April 2025

Change in retail footfall by region, UK, April 2026, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology.

2. Values for Northern Ireland have been suppressed subject to further QA processes.

3. Data are available in further detail, broken down by region and site type, in our accompanying UK retail footfall dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 1% in April 2026, compared with March 2026. Five of the nine spend categories remained broadly unchanged. "Entertainment" and "Transport" saw increases of 1%, while "Travel" and "Services" decreased by 2% and 1%, respectively.

When compared with April 2025, seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 11%, increasing in all nine spend categories, with the largest increases seen in "Services" and "Utilities", each rising by 14%.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel increased by 20 percentage points in April 2026, compared with the previous month, and by 30 percentage points when compared with the equivalent month of 2025. This reflects the sharp rise in global oil prices since the start of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February 2026.

The growth rate for the average fuel demand per transaction decreased by 11 percentage points in April 2026, compared with the previous month, and decreased by 12 percentage points when compared with the same month of 2025.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount decreased by 1% in April 2026 compared with March 2026. "Electricity and gas" and "Loans" decreased by 1% over this period, "Water" increased by 1% and the remaining categories remained broadly unchanged.

When compared with April 2025, the seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 1%. "Water" was the category with the largest year-on-year increase, rising by 14% from April 2025. The largest decrease was in the "Loans" category, decreasing by 4% over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate was broadly unchanged in April 2026 compared with March 2026. The failure rate for “Water” fell by 4%, compared with March 2026, and fell by 2% for “Electricity and gas”.

When compared with April 2025, the Direct Debit failure rate increased by 9%. The largest increases over this period were for “Electricity and gas” (24%) and “Loans” (17%).

Generally, accounts which received State Pension payments had a lower failure rate for "Electricity and gas" payments (0.3% in April 2026) than all consumers (2.8%). This includes recipients of the means-tested Pension Credit (1.1%). By contrast, the highest failure rates were for recipients of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) (5.8%), Child Benefits (6.7%), and Universal Credit (11.7%).

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Workforce indicators showed reduced activity in April 2026, with falls in the number of new online job adverts and also in the number of potential redundancies.

New online job adverts

The data for March 2026 have been suppressed because of issues encountered when obtaining job advert data from a major source. We are aiming to recover this data and will include these estimates in future outputs. This will be communicated to our users when available.

The total number of new online job adverts decreased by 2% in April 2026 compared with April 2025 but remained broadly consistent with levels seen since the beginning of 2026.

The number of new online job adverts decreased in 14 of the 26 occupation groups in April 2026, when compared with April 2025. For the remaining 12 occupation groups, it increased in 10 and was broadly unchanged in 2.

The occupation group that saw the largest percentage decrease in April 2026, when compared with April 2025, was "Sales occupations", which decreased by 18%. The next largest decrease in new adverts was in "Community and civil enforcement occupations", which decreased by 16%. The largest percentage increases over this period were for the occupation groups of "Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives" and "Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades". These increased by 16% and 10%, respectively.

The number of new online job adverts decreased in 8 of the 12 regions (includes UK countries and English regions) in April 2026 when compared with April 2025.

The largest decrease was in London, decreasing by 7%, while the largest increase was in the East of England, increasing by 3%.

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available, or for further tables using similar methodology and sources by local authority and 4-digit SOC, see the Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupation Classification datasets that get updated on 22 May 2026.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies decreased by 17% in April 2026 compared with March 2026. Over the same period, the number of employers proposing redundancies decreased by 24%.

When compared with April 2025, the number of potential redundancies decreased by 6%, while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 3%.

A third (33%) of all potential redundancies in April 2026 were in the "Banking and Finance" industry.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

Industry-to-industry interbank payment flows

This month, we are publishing monthly industry-to-industry payments flows from anonymised, aggregated Bacs Payment System (Bacs) Direct Debit, Bacs Direct Credit and Faster Payment System (FPS) payments.

These data capture the monthly value and number of transactions of payments flowing between UK organisations (including businesses, public sector organisations, and others). They are disaggregated by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry and by International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) region. This covers 88 SIC02 level codes in total, over 700 SIC05 level codes, and 12 ITL1 regions. Data are compiled from a sample of anonymised and aggregated Bacs Direct Debit, Bacs Direct Credit, and FPS payments data. They are made available to us by Pay.UK and Vocalink, who are the operator of, and infrastructure provider to, the UK's retail interbank payment systems.

These data are compiled from a sample that covers more than 2.3 million organisations in 2025, representing over 40% of the UK business population, and span January 2019 to April 2026. Breakdowns are available at SIC 2-digit, SIC 5-digit and ITL1 region-to-region.

By showing how value moves between industries, regions and supply chains in near real-time, these flows offer early signals of economic shocks, regional patterns of activity, and the structural relationships that underpin gross domestic product (GDP).

Further information on this indicator can be found in our Industry-to-industry payment flows, UK: 2019 to 2025 article and its accompanying quality and methodology information.

This month we have examined payments from selected transport industries to fuel wholesalers in early 2026.

Between February 2026 and April 2026, the total value of payments to "Wholesale of other fuels and related products" (SIC 46719) increased across all four selected transport industries. These include "Urban and suburban passenger land transport" (SIC 49319) by 48%, "Freight transport by road" (SIC 49410) by 32%, "Other passenger land transport" (SIC 49390) by 29%, and "Other transportation support activities" (SIC 52290) by 28%.

These increases are notably larger than over the same period in 2025, when the total value of payments fell in three of the four industries, and rose by only 6% in "Freight transport by road" (SIC 49410).

This pattern coincides with the increase in wholesale energy and automotive fuel prices reported in the bulletin, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East from 28 February 2026.

Wholesale energy prices decreased in April 2026, when compared with March 2026, but remained higher than April 2025 as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East continued.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 14% in April 2026, compared with March 2026, from 4.507 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 3.883p/kWh. This is a 33% increase in price from April 2025, which had a monthly SAP of 2.917p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity decreased by 13% in April 2026, when compared with March 2026, from an average of 9.519 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 8.320p/kWh. This was an increase of 11% when compared with April 2025, which had an average price of 7.502p/kWh.

Energy prices have fallen from significantly higher March prices following the ceasefire in the conflict in the Middle East, as confidence began to return to supply chains. However, disruption continued through the Strait of Hormuz.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

New vehicle registrations

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations decreased by 9% in April 2026, compared with March 2026, but increased by 21% when compared with April 2025.

The largest month‑on‑month decreases in new registrations were recorded for private cars, which fell by 22%, and business cars, which fell by 19%. These falls partly reflect tax and legislative changes that contributed to a stronger than usual March uplift, associated with the introduction of the new 26‑plate.

The seasonally adjusted number of new registrations for electric vehicles recorded the largest month-on-month decreases in April 2026. Hybrid electric vehicle registrations decreased by 34%, Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle registrations decreased by 15%, while Battery electric vehicle registrations only increased by 3%.

When compared with the previous year, increases were observed across all categories. The most pronounced growth occurred in registrations of Battery electric vehicles and Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which increased by 48% and 45%, respectively in April 2026, when compared with April 2025. In contrast, registrations of diesel cars recorded the smallest increase over the same period, at 2%.

Our accompanying SMMT vehicle registrations and production dataset is available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged in April 2026 compared with March 2026 and also when compared with April 2025. 

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports remained broadly unchanged in April 2026, compared with the previous month. Over this period, the number of cargo and tanker visits decreased by 2%, and other ship visits increased by 2%.

When compared with March 2025, the seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 6%, with cargo and tanker visits decreasing by 15%, and other ship visits increasing by 2%. This partly reflects a consolidation of shipping activity towards major continental European ports over the last two years.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings increased by 4% in April 2026, compared with March 2026, and increased by 2% when compared with April 2025.

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings decreased by 1% in April 2026, compared with the previous month, and also decreased by 1% when compared with April 2025.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

About the statistics

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.

About the data sources

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 14 May 2026.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 21 May 2026.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 16 April 2026.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 15 January 2026.

• SMMT vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 8 May 2026.

• Industry-to-industry payment flows SIC2 dataset; updated 21 May 2026

• Industry-to-industry payment flows SIC5 dataset; updated 21 May 2026

• Region-to-region organisation payment flows dataset, updated 21 May 2026

Statistical designation

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.