Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 18 June 2026

In May 2026:

• Consumer activity grew as retail footfall, seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending and the Direct Debit average transaction amount all increased compared with April 2026, also coinciding with a decrease in Direct Debit failure rates (BT Active Intelligence, Revolut, Vocalink and Pay.UK).

• Labour market indicators showed potential weakening, with a sharp increase in the number of potential redundancies compared with both April 2026 and May 2025, while the number of new online job adverts fell when compared with May 2025 but showed a small increase when compared with April 2026 (Insolvency Service HR1 forms, Textkernel).

• A net 2% of firms reported increased turnover month-on-month, which is broadly in line with April 2026 (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns).

• Wholesale energy prices increased compared with April 2026, and remained significantly higher than May 2025, as markets continued to respond to the conflict in the Middle East (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, National Gas Transmission, Elexon).

• Transport indicators showed mixed activity compared with the previous month, with UK flights seeing a 1% increase and ship visits to major UK ports seeing a 1% decrease (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL).

• New vehicle registrations decreased by 2% compared with April 2026 but increased by 7% when compared with May 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)).

• The number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings increased by 1%, compared with April 2026, but decreased by 1% when compared with May 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government).

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Indicators with “SA” in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with “NSA” in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.
3. Users should be cautious when interpreting month-on-month changes in non-seasonally adjusted data, as some indicators (e.g. retail footfall) are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month.
4. Existing EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

May 2026 saw increased retail footfall and debit card spending compared with April 2026. Demand for automotive fuel declined as consumers responded to increased automotive fuel prices. Average Direct Debit transaction values increased, while failure rates decreased.

UK retail footfall

UK retail footfall rose by 9% in May 2026, compared with April 2026, but decreased by 1% when compared with May 2025.

Footfall increased in district or local centres, and in town and city centres, both by 9% compared with April 2026. Footfall rose in retail parks by 8% compared with April 2026.

Footfall increased by 1% in district or local centres when compared with April 2025. In town and city centres, it remained broadly unchanged and decreased by 9% in retail parks, over the same period.

Footfall increased in all 11 regions (including Great Britain countries and English regions) compared with April 2026, ranging from the highest increase of 11% in the South East to the lowest increase of 7% in Yorkshire and The Humber.

When compared with May 2025, footfall fell in almost all nations and regions, except for England, which remained flat, and London, which increased by 10%. The largest decreases were in Wales, and Yorkshire and The Humber, which both fell by 8%.

Data from Northern Ireland were unavailable.

Figure 2: Retail footfall increased in all UK regions in May 2026, when compared with April 2026

Change in retail footfall by region, non-seasonally adjusted, UK, May 2026

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology.
2. Caution is advised when interpreting month-on-month changes which are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 2% in May 2026, compared with April 2026. Increases were seen across seven of the nine spend categories, with the biggest change seen in “Restaurants”, climbing by 4%. “Health” and “Services” each saw a decrease of 1%.

When compared with May 2025, seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 8%, increasing in all nine spend categories, with the largest increases seen in “Services”, “Transport”, and “Utilities”, each rising by 12%.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

The annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel increased by 4 percentage points in May 2026 compared with the previous month. When compared with May 2025, the growth rate increased by 35 percentage points.

The annual growth rate for the demand of automotive fuel decreased by 1 and 14 percentage points when compared with April 2026 and May 2025, respectively.

This change in fuel price and demand reflects the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, which has affected supply chains and confidence, leading to higher global oil prices.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 1% in May 2026 compared with April 2026. “Other” increased by 1% over this period and the remaining categories remained broadly unchanged, except “Electricity and gas”, which decreased by 1%.

When compared with May 2025, the seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 2%. “Water” was the category with the largest year-on-year increase, rising by 12% from May 2025. The largest decreases were in the “Loans” and “Electricity and gas” categories, decreasing by 4% and 3%, respectively over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 2% in May 2026 compared with April 2026. The failure rate for “Electricity and gas” fell by 4%, compared with April 2026, but increased by 1% for “Fitness facilities” and “Loans”.

When compared with May 2025, the Direct Debit failure rate increased by 4%. The largest increases over this period were for “Loans” (15%) and “Electricity and gas” (10%).

Generally, accounts that received Universal Credit payments had a higher failure rate (8.0% in May 2026) compared with accounts for All consumers (2.3%). The highest failure rates for recipients of Universal Credit in May 2026 were for “Fitness facilities” at 16.6% and “Electricity and gas” at 11.2%. By contrast, the failure rates for All consumers in these spending categories were notably lower at 5.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

More businesses showed an increase than a decrease month-on-month in their turnover in May 2026, but there was also a sharp increase in the number of potential redundancies.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover.

VAT returns are forms submitted by businesses to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) that detail how much VAT they have charged (turnover VAT), and how much they have paid to other businesses (expenditure VAT). This dataset only uses VAT returns received within the first seven days after each reporting month to allow for early (flash) estimates. This accounted for approximately 11,100 businesses in May 2026. Quarterly or annual reporting businesses are not included, as they do not file returns every month and are not part of the flash estimate pipeline.

Figure 6: The number of firms reporting an increased turnover in May 2026 was 2% higher than those reporting a decreased turnover, remaining broadly unchanged from April 2026

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2023 to May 2026

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.
2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.
3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

A net 2% of firms reported a month on month increase in turnover in May 2026. This remained broadly unchanged when compared with April 2026 and was within normal month-on-month variation.

In the services sector, the largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP), a net 2% of firms reported an increase in turnover compared with the previous month. This was 1 percentage point higher than April 2026.

In the production sector, a net 1% of firms reported a decrease in turnover in May 2026, down 4 percentage points compared with April 2026.

In the construction sector, a net 1% of firms reported a decrease in turnover in May 2026, which was 1 percentage point lower than in April 2026.

In the agriculture sector, a net 3% of firms reported a decrease in turnover, remaining broadly unchanged when compared with April 2026.

For all these sectors, diffusion indices in May 2026 were within their respective limits of normal month on month variation.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry’s contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index. The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset is available.

New online job adverts

The total number of new online job adverts decreased by 18% and fell in all of the 26 occupational groups in May 2026 compared with May 2025.

The occupational group that saw the largest percentage decrease in May 2026, when compared with May 2025, was “Teaching and other educational professionals”, which decreased by 34%. The next largest decreases were in “Community and civil enforcement occupations”, “Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades”, and “Skilled construction and building trades”, which decreased by 26%, 25% and 25%, respectively.

The number of new online job adverts decreased in all the 12 regions (includes UK countries and English regions) when compared with May 2025. The largest decreases were in London and the West Midlands, which fell by 24% and 22%, respectively.

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available, or for further tables using similar methodology and sources by local authority and 4-digit SOC, see the Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupational Classification datasets that were last updated on 22 May 2026.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies increased by 64% in May 2026 compared with April 2026. Over the same period, the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 10%. The number of potential redundancies recorded in May 2026 is the highest monthly total since the high numbers recorded in 2020.

When compared with May 2025, the number of potential redundancies increased by 57%, while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 10%.

The largest increases in the number of potential redundancies in May 2026 were in the “Distribution, Hotel and Restaurants” industry, which quadrupled compared with April 2026 and increased by 190% when compared with May 2025.

The “Public Administration, Education and Health” industry group also had a large increase in the number of redundancies in May 2026, up by 114% compared with April 2026 and up by 48% compared with May 2025. This industry accounted for 26% of all potential redundancies in May 2026, closely followed by “Distribution, Hotel and Restaurants” and “Banking and Finance”, which both contributed 24% each to the total number.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

Industry-to-industry interbank payment flows

Monthly industry-to-industry payments flows are anonymised, aggregated Bacs Payment System (Bacs) Direct Debit, Bacs Direct Credit and Faster Payment System (FPS) payments. They are made available to us by Pay.UK and Vocalink, who are the operator of, and infrastructure provider to, the UK’s retail interbank payment systems.

These data capture the monthly value and number of transactions of payments flowing between UK organisations (including businesses, public sector organisations, and others). They are disaggregated by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industry and by International Territorial Level 1 (ITL1) region. Breakdowns are available at SIC 2-digit, SIC 5-digit, ITL1 region-to-region, and SIC 2-digit by ITL1 region.

Further information on this indicator can be found in our Industry-to-industry payment flows, UK: 2019 to 2025 article and its accompanying quality and methodology information.

This month we have examined payments from selected air and sea transport industries to fuel wholesalers in early 2026.

Between February 2026 and May 2026, the total value of payments to “Wholesale of other fuels and related products” (SIC 46719) increased across all three selected air and sea transport industries. These include “Sea and coastal freight” (SIC 50200) by 112%, “Air freight” (SIC 51210) by 52%, and “Scheduled passenger air transport” (SIC 51101) by 42%.

When compared with April 2026, the value of payments for “Scheduled passenger air transport” (SIC 51101) fell by 26% in May 2026. Over the same period, the value of payments for “Sea and coastal freight” (SIC 50200) and “Air freight” (SIC 51210) increased by 46% and 18%, respectively.

This pattern coincides with the increase in wholesale energy and automotive fuel prices reported in the bulletin, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East from 28 February 2026.

Wholesale energy prices increased in May 2026, when compared with April 2026, and remained significantly higher than May 2025 as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East continued.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 4% in May 2026, compared with April 2026, from 3.883 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 4.037p/kWh. This is a 42% increase in price from May 2025, which had a monthly SAP of 2.843p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity increased by 24% in May 2026, when compared with April 2026, from an average of 8.320 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 10.314p/kWh. This was an increase of 49% when compared with May 2025, which had an average price of 6.944p/kWh.

The increase in the System Price of electricity during May 2026 partly reflects rising carbon prices associated with the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, which increased the operational expenses for gas-fired power generation.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

New vehicle registrations

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations decreased by 2% in May 2026, compared with April 2026, but increased by 7% when compared with May 2025.

The largest month‑on‑month decrease in new registrations was recorded for business cars, which fell by 5%, followed by fleet cars (down 2%), while new registrations of private cars were broadly unchanged. When compared with the same month of the previous year, business car new registrations decreased by 17% while new registrations of private cars increased by 17%.

The seasonally adjusted number of new registrations for electric cars decreased in May 2026 compared with April 2026. Hybrid electric vehicle registrations decreased by 4%, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle registrations decreased by 2%, while battery electric vehicle registrations were broadly unchanged.

When compared with the previous year, increases were seen across all categories of electric vehicles. The most pronounced growth occurred in registrations of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which increased by 33% and 23%, respectively in May 2026, when compared with May 2025. In contrast, registrations of petrol and diesel cars decreased by 6% and 2%, respectively over the same period.

Our accompanying SMMT vehicle registrations and production dataset is available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights increased by 1% in May 2026, compared with the previous month, and also when compared with May 2025.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports decreased by 1% in May 2026, compared with the previous month. Over this period, the number of cargo and tanker visits increased by 1%, and other ship visits decreased by 4%.

When compared with May 2025, the seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 8%, with cargo and tanker visits decreasing by 11%, and other ship visits decreasing by 4%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings increased by 1% in May 2026, compared with the previous month, but decreased by 1% when compared with May 2025.

The seasonally adjusted number of EPCs lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings increased by 1% in May 2026, compared with the previous month, and decreased by 5% when compared with May 2025.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government’s Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

About the statistics

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.

About the data sources

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 18 June 2026.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 18 June 2026.
• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 15 January 2026.
• SMMT vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 11 June 2026.
• Industry-to-industry payment flows SIC2 dataset; updated 18 June 2026
• Industry-to-industry payment flows SIC5 dataset; updated 18 June2026
• Region-to-region organisation payment flows dataset, updated 18 June 2026
• Industry-to-industry payment flows by region dataset; updated 18 June 2026

Statistical designation

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.