Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 17 September 2026

In August 2026:

• Consumer behaviour was weaker than in July 2026; both retail footfall and Revolut direct debit spending fell slightly, while both fuel prices and the seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate rose (BT Active Intelligence, Vocalink and Pay.UK).

• Business and workforce indicators were mixed, with a net 3% of firms reporting decreased turnover month-on-month, 3 percentage points lower than in July 2026; the number of potential redundancies fell, compared with both the previous month and August 2025, while the number of job adverts was higher than in August 2025 (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns Insolvency Service HR1 forms, Textkernel).

• Wholesale energy prices increased, compared with July 2026, and remained notably higher than August 2025, as markets continued to respond to the conflict in the Middle East (National Gas Transmission, Elexon).

• Seasonally adjusted UK flights and total number of ship visits to selected UK ports remained largely stable, compared with July 2026 (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth).

• New vehicle registrations decreased by 3% compared with July 2026, but increased by 10% when compared with August 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders).

• Housing market indicators were mixed, as the number of new property sale listings remained broadly unchanged, while the average time on market increased by 1% compared with July 2026; the number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 6% over the same period (Rightmove, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government).

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Indicators with “SA” in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with “NSA” in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.
3. Users should be cautious when interpreting month-on-month changes in non-seasonally adjusted data, as some indicators (for example, retail footfall) are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month.
4. Existing Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

Consumer activity was weaker in August 2026 than in July 2026. Both retail footfall and Revolut debit card spending decreased month-on-month, while Direct Debit average transaction amounts and failure rates continued to increase compared with the same month a year earlier. In August 2026, fuel prices remained substantially higher than in August 2025, which coincided with a fall in the quantity demanded per transaction.

UK retail footfall

UK retail footfall decreased by 2% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but increased by 3% when compared with August 2025.

Footfall increased by 2% in retail parks, decreased by 4% in district and local centres, and was broadly unchanged in town and city centres, compared with the previous month. Footfall in both district and local centres, and town and city centres, increased by 4%, while decreasing by 4% in retail parks, compared with August 2025.

Footfall increased in 4 of the 11 regions of Great Britain (including British countries and English regions), when compared with July 2026. The largest increases were in Scotland (9%) and Wales (2%). The largest decreases were in London (6%), the South East, the West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber (all 1%). Footfall remained broadly unchanged in the remaining 3 regions.

Footfall increased only in London (14%) and Scotland (3%) when compared with August 2025. Eight regions recorded decreases, with the largest being in the North East and in Yorkshire and the Humber (both 5%). The South East was the only English region where footfall remained broadly unchanged.

Data for Northern Ireland were unavailable.

Figure 2: Retail footfall increased in only 4 of the 11 GB regions in August 2026 when compared with July 2026

Change in retail footfall by region, UK, August 2026, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology. 

2. Caution is advised when interpreting month-on-month changes which are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month. 

3. Values for Northern Ireland have been suppressed, subject to further quality assurance processes. 

4. Data are available in further detail, broken down by region and site type, in our accompanying UK retail footfall dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending decreased by 1% in August 2026, compared with July 2026. "Restaurant spending" saw the largest decrease, at 2%.

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 4% when compared with August 2025, increasing in all nine categories.  The largest increases were in "Entertainment" (14%), "Transport" (8%), "Utilities", and "Shopping" (both 7%).

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

The growth rate of average automotive fuel prices increased by 7 percentage points in August 2026, compared with July 2026, and by 27 percentage points when compared with August 2025.

Fuel price inflation remained high in August 2026 because of ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The growth rate of the average quantity demanded per fuel transaction decreased by 3 percentage points, compared with July 2026, and by 11 percentage points when compared with August 2025.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 3% in August 2026, compared with August 2025. "Water" recorded the largest year-on-year increase, rising by 6%, and followed by "Mortgages", which increased by 4%. The only decreases were in "Loans" and "Electricity and gas", which fell by 3% and 2%, respectively, over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate increased from 2.3% in August 2025 to 2.4% in August 2026.

The largest increases over this period were in "Fitness facilities", which increased from 5.7% in August 2025 to 6.1% in August 2026, and "Loans", which increased from 4.7% to 5.0% over the same period.

Notably, this month's failure rates for "Fitness facilities" tend to be higher than for other categories of spending because these payments are generally more discretionary and may be affected by membership churn, which is the percentage of members who cancel or fail to renew their memberships.

Failure rates for "Loans" are also comparatively high, reflecting that borrowers may be more financially constrained. The increase in both of these categories may indicate that households are prioritising other spending commitments in response to financial pressures.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

More businesses reported a decrease than an increase in turnover in August 2026. Potential redundancies fell for the third consecutive month, and job adverts increased compared with the same month a year earlier.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or a decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns.

Figure 5: The number of firms reporting an increased turnover in August 2026 was 3 percentage points lower than the number reporting a decreased turnover; this net difference was also 3 percentage points lower than July 2026

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2023 to August 2026, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price, so may reflect elements of inflation.

2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.

3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

The VAT turnover diffusion index in August 2026 indicated that the proportion of firms reporting an increase in turnover was 3 percentage points lower than the proportion reporting a decrease. This net difference was also 3 percentage points lower than in July 2026, but remained within the range of normal month-on-month variation.

In August 2026, all four main industrial sectors recorded more firms reporting decreases in turnover than increases. In Services, Production and Construction, the proportion of firms reporting an increase in turnover was 2% less than the proportion reporting a decrease.

In Agriculture, the proportion of firms reporting an increase was 5% less than the proportion of those reporting a decrease. All sectors remained within their respective ranges of normal month-on-month variation, with the exception of Agriculture.

Compared with July 2026, the net difference between firms reporting increases and decreases in turnover, decreased across all four sectors. The difference fell by 2 percentage points in both Services and Production, by 3 percentage points in Agriculture, and by 5 percentage points in Construction. This suggests a broad-based reduction in reported turnover growth across the main industrial sectors in August 2026.

Industry-to-industry interbank payment flows

Monthly industry-to-industry payments flows are anonymised, aggregated Bacs Payment System (Bacs) Direct Debit, Bacs Direct Credit, and Faster Payment System (FPS) payments.

Further information on this indicator can be found in our Industry-to-industry payment flows, UK: 2019 to 2025 article and its accompanying quality and methodology information.

This month, we have examined payments between organisations in the "Creative, arts and entertainment activities" industry (Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Division 90), comparing payments made by organisations in Scotland (International Territorial Level (ITL) 1) with those made by organisations in the rest of the UK. This is because Edinburgh hosts several large art festivals throughout August. Ticket sales and visitor spending are not captured in these data, but payments between arts organisations may indicate activity associated with these festivals.

The value of payments from arts organisations in Scotland to other UK arts organisations was 73% higher in August 2026 than in July 2026. In the rest of the UK, equivalent arts organisations payments were 40% lower.

From 2021 to 2025, an August peak has been present in Scotland each year, with the value of August payments being between 1.9 and 2.6 times the average of the other months for that year. In the rest of the UK, August was between 1.0 and 1.2 times the average of the other months in the same period.

These payment flows are an indicator of art festival activity rather than a complete measure of it.

New online job adverts

The total number of new online job adverts was broadly unchanged in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but increased by 4% when compared with August 2025.

Job adverts increased in 13 of the 26 occupational groups, compared with August 2025. The largest increases were in "Science, research, engineering and technology professionals" (43%) and "Protective service occupations" (34%). Job adverts decreased in the remaining 13 occupational groups, with the largest decline in "Community and civil enforcement occupations" (32%).

Job adverts increased in 6 of the 12 UK regions (including the UK countries and English regions), compared with August 2025, with the largest increases in the East of England (up 15%) and the South East (up 14%). Job adverts decreased in five regions, with the largest declines in Scotland (down 7%) and Wales (down 4%). London remained broadly unchanged.

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide. 

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available. Forfurther tables using similar methodology and sources by local authority and four-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC), see our Labour demand volumes by SOC datasets, which will be updated in September 2026.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

In August 2026, the number of potential redundancies and employers proposing redundancies fell by 17% and 27%, respectively, compared with July 2026. Compared with August 2025, potential redundancies fell by 11%, while the number of employers proposing redundancies decreased by 2%.

Banking and finance and manufacturing accounted for the largest shares of potential redundancies in August 2026, representing 31% and 24% of the total, respectively.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

Wholesale energy prices increased further in August 2026, following rises in July as markets continued to respond to developments in the conflict in the Middle East. Ongoing concerns about potential disruption to global energy supplies and shipping routes contributed to upward pressure on wholesale gas and electricity prices, which are seen to be continuing in our early September indicators.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 17% in August 2026, compared with the previous month, and was 90% higher than in August 2025. More recent data indicate that upward pressure on gas prices has continued through early September. In the week ending 13 September 2026, the System Average Price of gas increased by 10%, compared with the previous week from 6.107pence per kWh (p/kWh) to 6.695 p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity increased by 23% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, and was 84% higher than in August 2025. More recent data indicate an increase of 50% in the seven days leading up to 14 September 2026, compared with the previous seven days, from 10.977 p/kWh to 16.451 p/kWh.

Changes in the SAP of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

Housing market: rentals

The seasonally adjusted number of new rental listings decreased by 1% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but increased by 1% when compared with August 2025.

Compared with the previous month, the North East recorded the largest decrease (5%) of new rental listings, while the North West was the only region to record an increase (1%).

When compared with August 2025, Wales recorded the largest increase (23%) in new rental listings. Four regions saw decreases over the same period, with the largest decline in the South West (6%).

Housing market: sales

The seasonally adjusted number of new property sales listings was broadly unchanged in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but decreased by 5% when compared with August 2025.

Compared with the previous month, the number of new listings decreased in 4 of the 11 regions, with the largest falls in the East Midlands (3%), followed by London (2%).

It remained broadly unchanged in 3 regions and increased in the remaining 4.

When compared with August 2025, new listings decreased in all regions except the North West, where they remained broadly unchanged. The largest decrease was in London, where new listings fell by 9%.

The seasonally adjusted average time on market for property sales was 68.8 days in August 2026, an increase of 1% from July 2026, and 2% higher than in August 2025.

London recorded the longest average time on market (79.5 days) and Scotland the shortest (36.5 days).

Compared with July 2026, the largest increases were in the East Midlands and London (both 2%).

When compared with August 2025, London, saw the largest increase (6%), while Wales recorded the largest decrease (4%).

Our accompanying housing market insights dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 6% in August 2026, compared with both July 2026 and August 2025.

The seasonally adjusted number of EPCs lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings increased by 4% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, and by 13% when compared with August 2025.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations (cars and light commercial vehicles) decreased by 3% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but increased by 10% when compared with August 2025.

The seasonally adjusted number of both UK flights and total number of ship visits to selected UK ports remained largely stable, compared with July 2026.

New vehicle registrations

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations (cars and light commercial vehicles) decreased by 3% in August 2026 compared with July 2026 but was 10% higher than in August 2025.

Fleet car registrations, which account for more than half of all registrations, were unchanged in August 2026 compared with the previous month but increased by 12% compared with August 2025.

Private car registrations, which account for around one-third of registrations, increased by 1% on the month, and by 10% on the year. In contrast, Business car and Light commercial vehicle registrations fell by 22% and 16%, respectively, compared with July 2026, although both remained above their August 2025 levels, increasing by 7% and 3%, respectively.

The proportion of new car registrations that were electric decreased by 1 percentage point to 55% in August 2026, compared with July 2026, but was 6 percentage points higher than a year earlier. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) accounted for 28%, 14%, and 13% of car registrations, respectively. Petrol and diesel vehicles accounted for 40% and 5% of car registrations, respectively.

Our accompanying UK new vehicle registrations and production dataset is available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged in August 2026, compared with the previous month, and increased by 2% when compared with August 2025.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports decreased by 1% in August 2026, compared with the previous month. Cargo and tanker visits were broadly unchanged, while other ship visits decreased by 1%, over the same period.

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 2%, compared with August 2025. Cargo and tanker visits decreased by 1%, while other ship visits decreased by 2%, over the same period.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

About the statistics

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.

About the data sources

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 10 September 2026.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 10 September 2026.

• Rightmove Housing Market Insights; updated 17 September 2026.

• UK new vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 10 September 2026.

• Industry-to-industry payment flows, Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2, dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Industry-to-industry payment flows, SIC5, dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

• Region-to-region organisation payment flows dataset, updated 17 September 2026.

• Industry-to-industry payment flows by region dataset; updated 17 September 2026.

Statistical designation

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.