National population projections (NPPs) provide an indication of the potential future population size of the UK. A headline only interim release using the latest available population data including Census 2021 (with a planned 2021 base-year) and new international migration assumptions using the latest estimates of international migration. Assumptions for cross border migration, fertility and mortality are reused from 2020-based interim NPPs. NPPs are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education, and pensions.
Publications
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National population projections: 2021-based interim
The potential future population size of the UK. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
Data
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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International migration estimates and assumptions for national population projections: 2021-based interim
Estimated total international migration for the UK, for years ending mid-2014 to mid-2023 used in assumption setting for national population projections: 2021-based interim. Short- and long-term UK-level international migration assumptions used in national population projections: 2021-based interim.
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Principal projection - Great Britain summary
Principal projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Wales population in age groups
Principal projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - England and Wales population in age groups
Principal projection for England and Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - England summary
Principal projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020-based interim national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK population in age groups
Principal projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zipped population projections data files, Northern Ireland
Open data for Northern Ireland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - Wales summary
Principal projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Principal projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zipped population projections data files, Wales
Open data for Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Zipped population projections data files, Great Britain and England and Wales
Open data for Great Britain and England and Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Principal projection - England and Wales summary
Principal projection for England and Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Great Britain population in age groups
Principal projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zipped population projections data files, England
Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Northern Ireland summary
Principal projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - England population in age groups
Principal projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
- meet identified user needs
- are well explained and readily accessible
- are produced according to sound methods
- are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.