Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025

Long-term immigration is where an individual moves to the UK for 12 months or more, long-term emigration is where an individual leaves the UK for 12 months or more. Long-term net migration is immigration minus emigration.

Long-term net migration

• At 171,000, long-term international net migration for year ending (YE) December 2025 has nearly halved from YE December 2024 (updated to 331,000); this level was last seen when the new immigration system was introduced in early 2021, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic travel restrictions were still in place.

• The number of non-EU+ nationals arriving for work-related reasons fell by 47% in 2025, which was the main reason for the continued fall in net migration; in the same period, overall emigration fell slightly.

• Provisional net migration was 350,000 for non-EU+ nationals in YE December 2025, down from 511,000 a year earlier.

• The provisional net migration of British nationals remained broadly stable, estimated at negative 136,000.

• Net migration for EU+ nationals in YE December 2025 was negative 42,000, it has been negative since YE June 2022.

Long-term immigration

• The provisional estimate for total long-term immigration YE December 2025 is 813,000, a decrease of 20% from the updated YE December 2024 estimate of 1,012,000; this continues a downward trend in our long-term immigration estimates from the peak at 1,469,000 in March 2023.  

• Most people immigrating into the UK in YE December 2025 were non-EU+ nationals, provisionally estimated at 627,000, a decline from 780,000 in YE December 2024.

• When looking at the reasons for immigration of non-EU+ nationals in YE December 2025, 47% came for study-related reasons, 23% for work-related reasons, 14% were asylum applicants, and 7% and 6% were for family- and humanitarian-related reasons, respectively.

• The immigration of EU+ and British nationals in the YE December 2025 was 76,000 and 110,000, falling slightly from 91,000 and 140,000, respectively, in the previous year.

Long-term emigration

• The provisional estimate for total long-term emigration in the most recent period is 642,000.

• Emigration has been increasing since 2022 but was down by 38,000 from the updated YE December 2024 estimate of 680,000; which was mainly because of a slower increase in non-EU+ emigration and larger decrease in EU+ emigration in the last 12 months.

• In YE December 2025, 278,000 non-EU+ nationals left the UK; just over half of these originally arrived with study-related visas.

• Emigration of EU+ nationals declined in YE December 2025 to 118,000, down by 24% from the updated YE December 2024 estimates of 155,000.

• In YE December 2025, 246,000 British nationals left the UK, a slight decline of 4% from the updated YE December 2024 estimates of 257,000.

Figure 1: Net migration was 171,000 in 2025

Long term immigration, emigration and net migration of non-EU+, EU+ and British nationals, year ending (YE) December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 6 to 7 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

Updates to estimates

For this release, we have more available and updated Home Office data for EU+ and non-EU+ nationals. Alongside this, we have introduced improvements to our methods for EU+ visa holders and non-EU+ nationals to better measure those with 3C leave. This is because of more data being available for this group for the first time.

3C leave is the period for which a person has permission to remain in the UK, after their previous permission to stay (usually via a visa and known as leave to remain) has expired, and they are awaiting the decision on a new in-country visa application. In addition to this, some inconsistencies in the visa data, mainly affecting family emigration highlighted in our previous release, have now been resolved.

The Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) that we use to estimate migration of British nationals has been updated by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) to include information from the Department for Education (DfE) for this release.

To learn more about these, in addition to the impact of the revisions on our long-term international migration estimates, please see Section 7: Updates to estimates.

With these statistics, you can:

• explore our new provisional estimates of net migration, immigration and emigration for the latest two time periods: year ending (YE) September 2025 and YE December 2025

• download the time series for YE June 2012 to December 2025, including standard revisions for YE September 2024 to YE June 2025

• compare historic time series for EU+ and non-EU+ nationals, while considering the change in methods and updated data from YE June 2021

With these statistics, you cannot:

• compare estimates of British nationals from YE June 2021 with those before YE June 2021, as our methods have changed substantially

• add the most recent estimates to a time series from previous releases; the full time series associated with this release should be used

The most recent figures published in this bulletin are early (provisional) estimates. Estimates stay provisional for a year, until we replace them with more complete revised estimates, based on updated data.

We are also developing our methods and may update estimates for previous periods when we make an improvement. This means the figures in this bulletin might be different from previous articles.

For more information, see our article on international migration and how we estimate it, which covers the complexity of measuring migration and why we revise provisional data.

When we refer to net migration, we mean long-term net migration. This is where people change the country they live in for a period of 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant. Net migration is long-term immigration (people coming to the UK for 12 months or more), minus long-term emigration (people leaving the UK for 12 months or more).

Figure 2: Long-term net migration continues to fall

Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2025

Notes:

Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 6 to 7 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 2 shows there has been a drop in net migration since year ending (YE) March 2023, based on our most recent early estimates. Net migration in YE December 2025 was 171,000. This was down from the peak of 944,000 in YE March 2023.

Long-term net migration is now close to the level it was at before the new immigration system was introduced at the start of 2021. This is when the UK transitioned out of EU membership.

Net migration by nationality

Definitions of British, EU+ and non-EU+ are in our Section 9: Definitions.

Net migration was provisionally estimated at 171,000 in YE December 2025. During the year:

• non-EU+ nationals’ net migration was provisionally estimated at 350,000, a decline of 161,000 from the updated YE December 2024 (511,000)

• British nationals’ net migration was provisionally estimated at negative 136,000, a fall of 19,000 from the updated YE December 2024 (negative 117,000)

• EU+ nationals’ net migration was provisionally estimated at negative 42,000, an increase of 21,000 from the updated YE December 2024 (negative 63,000)

Figure 3: Fall in non-EU+ net migration continues to drive the decrease in total net migration

Long term net migration of non-EU+, EU+ and British nationals, YE June 2012 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 3 shows changes in net migration are mainly caused by decreases in non-EU+ net migration. Net migration for EU+ and British nationals remains negative, so more people left the UK long-term than arrived for these two groups.

When we refer to immigration, we are referring to long-term immigration to the UK. This is where people change the country they live in for a period of 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant.

A provisionally estimated 813,000 people made a long-term move to the UK in year ending (YE) December 2025. Immigration dropped compared with our updated estimate for YE December 2024, when it was 1,012,000, continuing a downward trend from the peak of 1,469,000 in March 2023.

During the YE December 2025:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for 77% of total immigration (627,000)

• British nationals made up 14% (110,000)

• EU+ nationals made up 9% (76,000)

Figure 4: Long term immigration continues to fall

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals immigrating to the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 4 shows that increases in non-EU+ nationals accounted for the large rises in immigration between 2020 and 2023. Subsequently, the decreases in non-EU+ nationals largely contributed to the decline in immigration since September 2023. In contrast, there has been a continuing decline in the number of EU+ nationals coming to the UK, which began around the time of the 2016 EU referendum. This fall became sharper after December 2020, when the UK left the EU and freedom of movement ended.

The drop in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of immigration rule changes, which were introduced in 2024 and 2025.

Immigration of non-EU+ nationals

Data on the reasons why non-EU+ nationals come to live in the UK are based on their original type of long-term visa, their asylum application, or arrival under a resettlement scheme. As these data are for long-term migrants, they will only include people staying for a year or more. Our definition of an asylum applicant can be found in our Section 9: Definitions.

Figure 5: Work- and study-related remain the most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by reason, year ending (YE) December 2019 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 3, 6 to 7 and 9 to 10 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 5 shows study-related migration is the most common reason for non-EU+ nationals to come to the UK.

Although our immigration estimates are affected by the improvements to methods and updated data that resolves visa inconsistencies, which were implemented from YE September 2024, there was minimal impact on the trends for all reasons for migration.

In the year ending December 2025:

• study-related was the most common reason for non-EU+ nationals to come to live in the UK long term, with a provisional estimate of 294,000

• study-related arrivals were up by 7% compared with YE December 2024 (270,000), but down from a peak of 486,000 in YE September 2023

• within the study-related arrivals, the number of main applicants (277,000) increased by 9% compared with YE December 2024, but arrivals of their dependants (17,000) fell by 17%

• around 146,000 people arrived for work-related reasons, down 47% since YE December 2024 (272,000)

• within the work-related arrivals, just over half (74,000) were dependants, falling by 53% since YE December 2024, and 71,000 were main applicants, down by 38% for the same period

• the number of people immigrating for asylum was broadly stable, with a small increase to 88,000 in the year ending December 2025, from 87,000 the previous year; these estimates include people who claimed asylum after arriving via a regular route and by illegal entry routes, such as small boats

The UK Government introduced rule changes in 2024 and 2025, and there was a drop in work- and study-related immigration after this. These rules:

• stopped most overseas students from bringing family members to the UK

• stopped care workers from bringing family members

• increased the amount of money people need to earn to get a Skilled Worker visa

• closed the Health and Care route to overseas care workers

• removed some middle-skilled occupations from the Skilled Worker route

The bar chart in Figure 6 shows that for YE December 2025, Indian was the most common non-EU+ nationality to immigrate to the UK. It also shows that, for the top five nationalities, study-related immigration was the most common reason. Indian, Pakistani, Chinese, and Nigerian are regularly among the top five most frequent non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration.

Immigration of EU+ nationals

Freedom of movement between the EU+ countries and the UK ended in January 2021. Since then, EU+ nationals moving to the UK have needed a visa, status on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS), or indefinite leave to remain. Ireland is in the EU, but Irish nationals have the automatic right to live and work in the UK.

Our current methods for estimating EU+ migration give us estimates for people who travel on a visa, have EUSS status, or who are Irish nationals.

There were 76,000 arrivals of EU+ nationals in YE December 2025. This is broken down as follows:

• 46% were people with EUSS status (35,000)

• 45% were EU+ nationals who travel on a visa (34,000)

• 9% were Irish nationals (7,000)

The stacked bar chart in Figure 7 shows that the arrival of people with EUSS status were the largest contributors to the number of EU+ nationals immigrating in 2021.

Immigration levels for Irish nationals and EU+ visa holders have remained stable.

The rotated bar chart in Figure 8 shows Romanian was the most common EU+ nationality to immigrate to the UK in YE December 2025, followed by Italian, French, and Irish.

Age and sex of long-term immigrants

In this section, we take a closer look at the age and sex characteristics of those immigrating long term.

EU+ age and sex refers to EU+ visa holders and those with EUSS status. Age and sex data are not available for Irish nationals.

Table 1 shows that there were more males than females across all three nationality groups. The majority of those immigrating long-term in YE December 2025 were working age (aged between 16 and 64 years), including:

• 87% were non-EU+ nationals

• 86% were British nationals

• 82% were EU+ nationals

When we refer to emigration, we are referring to long-term emigration from the UK. This is when a person has left the UK to live in another country for a period of at least 12 months. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant.

A provisionally estimated 642,000 people left the UK to live in another country long term during year ending (YE) December 2025. This was slightly lower than our updated estimate for YE December 2024 (680,000 people).

Total emigration during YE December 2025 is broken down as follows:

• non-EU+ nationals made up 43% (278,000)

• British nationals made up 38% (246,000)

• EU+ nationals made up 18% (118,000)

Figure 9: Long-term emigration fell in the most recent period

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals emigrating long-term from the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 9 shows an increase in emigration between 2022 and 2024 mainly driven by non-EU+ nationals. Emigration began to fall from YE March 2025, which can be partially attributed to the slower increase in non-EU+ emigration and larger decrease of 36,000 in EU+ emigration in the last 12 months.

Figure 9 also shows that in the most recent period, 38% of total emigration was by British nationals. The implementation of new methods led to a change in scale of British nationals emigrating since YE June 2021. This also affects total emigration. We know the previously used method of the International Passenger Survey had under coverage of this nationality group. For more information, please see our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Emigration of non-EU+ nationals

Emigration of most visa holders by reason is derived from the original long-term visa a person held. For example, estimates of non-EU+ nationals who emigrated for study are people who have left the UK, who originally came here long-term to study.

Figure 10: Number of people emigrating who originally came to the UK on study-related visas remains high following a steady increase since 2022

Number of non-EU+ nationals emigrating long-term from the UK by original reason for immigration, year ending (YE) December 2019 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 3, 6 and 9 to 10 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 10 shows most non-EU+ nationals who left the UK in YE December 2025 originally came to the UK for study-related reasons.

Figure 10 also shows a change in scale for family emigration. This is a result of the methods improvements and updated data that resolved visa inconsistencies, which were implemented from YE September 2024. They have had small impacts on all reasons for migration, but estimates of people originally arriving for family reasons were most affected.

In YE December 2025, 159,000 non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on a study-related visa emigrated long-term. This accounts for 57% of all long-term emigration for non-EU+ nationals. This is likely because the large number of students who came to the UK after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic have completed their studies and departed. It may also be because of the high immigration seen in 2021 and 2022, which is partly attributed to the international students strategy to expand intake.

Of those who originally arrived for study-related reasons, the number of emigrating main applicants (136,000) remained broadly stable. However, emigration of their dependants (23,000) increased by 3%.

There were 63,000 non-EU+ nationals who left the UK, who originally arrived in the UK long-term for work-related reasons. Within work-related emigration, the number of main applicants (40,000) fell by 6% since YE December 24, but emigration of their dependants (22,000) declined by 10%.

The bar chart in Figure 11 shows that Indian and Chinese were two most common non-EU+ nationalities to leave the UK in the last year. Across the two groups, study was the most common reason that originally brought them to the UK.

Emigration of EU+ nationals

Around 118,000 EU+ nationals are estimated to have left the UK in YE December 2025. This is broken down as follows:

• those with status on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) made up 84% (100,000)

• people traveling on visas made up 11% (14,000)

• Irish nationals made up 4% (5,000)

The stacked bar chart in Figure 12 shows that overall emigration across all three groups remained fairly stable until YE December 2025, when it decreased. People with EUSS status are consistently the majority of EU+ emigration. This is because a large majority of EU citizens living in the UK have this status, because they arrived before the end of 2020.

The rotated bar chart in Figure 13 shows Romanian was the most common EU+ nationality to emigrate out of the UK and Polish was the second most common. Across both groups, 99% held EUSS status.

Age and sex of long-term emigrants

In this section, we take a closer look at the age and sex characteristics of those emigrating long-term.

EU+ age and sex refers to EU+ visa holders and those with EUSS status. Age and sex data are not available for Irish nationals.

Table 2 shows that there were more males than females in most age and nationality groups. Most emigrants were working age adults (aged between 16 and 64 years), including:

• 89% of non-EU+ nationals

• 85% of EU+ nationals

• 81% of British nationals

Alongside this release, we have also published our UK emigration explained: what we know about Brits moving abroad article. This article looks into what our latest estimates and international data tell us about how many British nationals are moving abroad, and what we do – and do not – know about where they are going.

We are developing methods for long-term international migration that use administrative data, to improve the quality and granularity of what we can provide.

As we do this, part of our quality assurance involves comparing our estimates of immigration with other sources of information.

Our estimates of long-term immigration broadly align with trends seen in the Home Office data on visas granted. The number of visas granted will always be higher, as not everyone will use their visa or stay long term. Differences in the size of the gap between visas granted and our immigration estimates can be caused by changes in the percentage of people who use their visa and stay long term.

Our immigration estimates also align with data from the Department for Work and Pensions on National Insurance number (NINo) allocations. NINo data will generally always be lower, as some people who come to the UK long-term will not have a NINo (for example, children).

For more information on our how our long-term international immigration estimates compare with other data sources, please see Tables 6a and 6b in our accompanying dataset.

We have revised our previously published international migration estimates from year ending (YE) September 2024 to YE June 2025. This is in line with our standard revisions policy.

The updates made in this release have had a minimal effect on our previous estimates (see Table 2 of our accompanying dataset).

Updates to estimates of EU+ and non-EU+ nationals

New travel data

As more data become available, we get a more complete picture of travel behaviour, which we incorporate into our estimates. For example, we did not have complete data to say whether those who arrived between July and December 2024 would stay long term for the YE June 2025 period when we published our estimates in November 2025. Instead we had to make assumptions. We now have 12 months of travel data for those who arrived between July and December 2024, so we have updated our estimates.

Method improvements for 3C Leave

We have implemented new methods to better identify cases of 3C Leave among EU+ visa holders and non-EU+ nationals. They use additional data from the Home Office. We can now identify individuals with 3C Leave who:

• applied for a new visa before their current one expired but are still waiting for an outcome after the expiration date

• made a fee waiver claim and were successful

• are currently waiting for the outcome to a fee waiver claim

Previously, without this new information, it would have appeared in the data that these individuals had emigrated.

Visa data inconsistency

Our previous releases showed an increase in emigration for people who arrived in the most recent periods. We found this disproportionately affected our estimates for individuals whose initial reason for migration was family related. This was likely because of inconsistencies in some visa data, where we are unable to link to second and subsequent visas. This issue also affected immigration, but to a much smaller degree. By working closely with the Home Office to investigate the problem, we have been able to resolve it.

Updates to estimates of British nationals

Updated data

The Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) that we use to estimate migration of British nationals has been updated for this release. It now includes additional information from the Department for Education that was unavailable in the initial RAPID delivery used in our November 2025 estimates. This helps us to more accurately identify usually resident students who are not working or on benefits that may not otherwise be captured by our methods.

Figure 14: Long-term net migration fell significantly in the year ending December 2025

Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) December 2019 to YE December 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4, 5 to 7 and 11 in Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources.

The line chart in Figure 14 shows our simulation-based uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies where 95% of those simulated intervals should contain the true value, assuming that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty.

The uncertainty intervals for our latest YE December 2025 estimates are:

• 145,000 to 197,000 for net migration

• 789,000 to 823,000 for immigration

• 616,000 to 655,000 for emigration

Users should exercise caution when using and interpreting these intervals. They are designed to capture and quantify uncertainty arising from specific components of the migration estimation process, namely adjustments and modelling. They do not represent a comprehensive measure of uncertainty and do not account for all potential sources of error and variability.

The latest intervals do not include uncertainty associated with the emigration re-arrival adjustment.

We are currently developing a new approach to estimating uncertainty based on a precocity framework. Further details can be found in our Predicting the stability of non-EU+ long-term international migration estimates methodology.

The census provides the most comprehensive snapshot of society every 10 years. However, more timely and frequent statistics are needed to better understand population change. We introduced a method that rolled forward Census 2021 data to produce an estimate of the non-UK-born population for June 2022 for England and Wales in Section 5 of our International migration research, progress update: November 2022 article.

This method has been refined to produce a UK estimate of the non-UK-born population for June 2024, split by EU+ and non-EU+. It does this by:

• using Census 2021 (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) or Census 2022 (Scotland) data for each country as a baseline

• removing deaths of people born outside the UK that occurred after Census Day for each country

• adding immigration flows and removing emigration flows of non-UK nationals as a proxy for non-UK-born people

These estimates are official statistics in development and are provisional, so there is a degree of uncertainty around them. Estimates are not provided for June 2025 because deaths of people born outside the UK that occurred in 2025 are not yet available. For deaths that are referred to a coroner, there can also be a large gap between the date of death and the date the death is registered.

The provisional UK estimates (Table 3) indicate that between June 2022 and June 2024 the:

• non-UK-born population increased from 11.5 to 13.1 million

• non-EU+ born population increased by nearly 1.8 million

• EU+ born population decreased slightly by 138,000

Our rolled forward non-UK-born estimates are more up to date than estimates derived from the Annual Population Survey (APS). This is because APS survey weighting currently uses 2018-based population projections and 2022 payroll by nationality data from HM Revenue and Customs. The new estimates align more closely with the accredited official population estimates and better reflect migration flows in recent years.

Historically, we used the APS to produce our Population estimates for individual countries and nationalities. However, this was discontinued in 2022 because of quality issues relating to the data used to weight the non-UK-born population. We are exploring the best methods to produce these estimates, including using:

• the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS)

• a rolled-forward cohort component method based on Census 2021 and Census 2022 data

• administrative data

We will provide an update on our research later in the year.

Administrative data

Collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record keeping. They are used for operational purposes, and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies.

Asylum applicants

An asylum applicant (also referred to as "asylum seeker") is someone who makes a claim to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

"Asylum" estimates in this bulletin refer to people who have claimed asylum in the UK. It includes people who claimed asylum after arriving in the UK via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving by illegal entry routes, for example, via small boats. To avoid double counting, it excludes anyone who was already a long-term migrant in the UK before claiming asylum. For example, someone who arrived on a study visa and has been in the UK for at least a year before claiming asylum will be counted as a study migrant.

An asylum-related return is where someone who originally claimed asylum has left the country long term. For more information on this, see the Home Office’s User Guide to immigration system statistics.

British national

For the purposes of our estimates, we assume a British national is anyone who has a National Insurance Number (NINo) and who is not included in the Migrant Worker Scan (MWS).

The MWS contains information on overseas nationals who have registered for, and are allocated, a NINo. UK residents typically receive a NINo through the Juvenile Registration scheme before the age of 16 years if Child Benefit was claimed on their behalf. Adults returning to the UK or not covered by Child Benefit apply through the Adult NINo Allocation service.

If a NINo is allocated, the relevant Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) systems are updated. These people are included in the Migrant Workers Scan (MWS). A full description of this process is provided in DWP's  NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK: background information and methodology.

We also include people as British nationals on the MWS that have been resident in the UK for many years and are likely to have become British citizens. Users should note that this definition is statistical and may be different from legal definitions of nationality.

For full information on the definition used in our estimates, please refer to our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

British National (Overseas)

Someone who was a British Overseas Territories citizen by connection with Hong Kong, who lost that citizenship on 30 June 1997 when sovereignty returned to China. However, such a person was able to register as a British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) before 1 July 1997. For more information, see GOV.UK’s Types of British nationality guide.

On 31 January 2021, the UK launched a bespoke immigration route for BN(O) status holders and their families from Hong Kong.

Dependant visas

International migrants that have entered the UK on a visa may be eligible to bring their dependant partner or child with them through a dependant visa, subject to the type of visa the main applicant holds. A dependant partner or child of an international migrant can be:

• a husband, wife, civil partner, or unmarried partner
• a child under 18 years of age, including if they were born in the UK during the international migrant's stay
• a child over 18 years of age if they are currently in the UK as the international migrant's dependant

EU and EU+

EU is the European Union, which is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus other EU. These are:

• EU2 – Romania and Bulgaria

• EU8 – Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia

• EU14 – Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden

• other EU – Malta, Cyprus, and Croatia (joined on 1 July 2013)

British nationals are not included in these numbers at any point.

EU+ is all current EU countries, plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland.

EU settled status

EU settled status is a status available to EU+ citizens after the UK left the EU and freedom of movement was rescinded. It allows them to live and work in the UK for an indefinite period.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow of people to and from the UK. This bulletin uses the United Nations-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, which is: "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence".

Main applicant

A main applicant is an individual who has been granted leave to enter or to remain in the UK on a visa, for example, a work or study visa. Main applicants may be eligible to bring their dependant family members with them on a dependant visa.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are coming to the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the UK population.

Non-EU+

Non-EU+ is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe not included in the EU+ category. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

"Other" reason for migration

For non-EU+ and EU+ migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. "Other" reason includes people who immigrated to the UK under visas classified as:

• admin

• visit

• other

• settlement

• protection

• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

Ukraine visa schemes

The Ukraine Family Scheme allowed applicants to join family members or extend their stay in the UK. The Ukraine Extension Scheme allowed Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members to apply for permission to stay in the UK. The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their family members to come to the UK if they have a named sponsor under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. The reason for migration data will mainly only show the out-of-country routes, as opposed to the extension routes.

Uncertainty intervals

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using admin data. The uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies where 95% of those simulated intervals should contain the true value, assuming that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. The assumptions in this bulletin do not currently account for all sources of potential error in estimates of net migration.

Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals (CI). CI are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys, where intervals derived from 95% of all possible random samples should contain the true value.

Chart notes

1. YE: year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.

2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers, so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

3. See information within Section 11: Quality, methods and data sources for more details on data sources and methods.

4. Total EU+ includes EU+ visa holders, those with status of EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS), and Irish nationals.

5. Estimates for British Nationals pre-June 2021 should not be compared with post-June 2021 estimates, as the methods used to create them are different.

6. Comparisons between estimates published before and after June 2021 should be treated with caution because of changes in methodology.

7. Long-term international migration estimates for YE September 2024 to YE June 2025 have been revised. Estimates for YE September 2025 and YE December 2025 have been published for the first time. Estimates for the last four year-ending periods are provisional.

8. Estimates do not include those arriving via asylum and humanitarian resettlement routes. However, British Nationals (Overseas) and Ukraine schemes were included in the analysis that produced these figures.

9. Reasons for immigration are based on initial reasons why individuals arrived in the UK. They do not show visas to which people may have transferred. Work- and study-related reasons include main applicants and dependants. “Humanitarian” in Figures 5 and 10 is the sum across various humanitarian visa schemes presented in our main long-term international migration dataset; this calculation is done on unrounded figures. "Other" in Figures 6 and 11 refers to all other reasons aside from work-related, study-related, asylum, and humanitarian resettlement. Reasons for emigration are based on the initial reason why an individual arrived in the UK.

10. See Section 9: Definitions for more information on reason for migration groupings.

11. Measures of uncertainty are only available for YE June and December periods from YE June 2022 to YE December 2025.

12. Estimates for 30 June 2022 to 2024 are provisional.

Data sources and methods

These estimates cover the period YE June 2012 to YE December 2025. Current and previous methods are described in our updated Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology. A more detailed account of these methods is provided within our Provisional long-term international migration estimates: technical user guide.

We routinely assess approaches for quality assuring methods and resulting outputs through various groups. This includes the National Statistician’s Advisory Panel, which provides advice and assurance on methodological questions. Members of this group have supported a review of the assumptions used for this round of estimation. Additionally, our Quality and Improvement team provide periodic reviews of approaches to quality assurance processes.

EU+ nationals

In November 2024, we widened our EU category to EU+ for data back to YE June 2021. EU+ includes all EU countries, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.

EU+ estimates before YE June 2021 were produced using the Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID). EU+ estimates for YE June 2021 onwards are produced using Home Office Borders and Immigration data (HOBID).

Read more on the latest HOBID methodology to estimate the migration of EU+ nationals in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Non-EU+ nationals

For non-EU+ nationals we use HOBID, which combines visa and travel information to link an individual's travel movements into and out of the country. More information is within the Home Office’s User guide to immigration system statistics.

To estimate non-EU+ immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual's first arrival and last departure dates to estimate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. More detailed information can be found in our Provisional long-term international migration estimates: technical user guide.

British nationals

Census data have been used to estimate British nationals between YE June 2012 and YE June 2021. Pre-Census 2021 estimates should not be compared with post-Census 2021 estimates, as the methods used to create them are different. For more information, see our Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 article.

We previously estimated onwards British nationals' migration for YE September 2021 using the International Passenger Survey (IPS). However, we have long acknowledged the IPS has been stretched beyond its original purpose. We have developed new methods that no longer rely on IPS data.

To estimate British nationals, we have developed a method that uses RAPID data, previously used to estimate EU+ migration. We create a time series that we use to infer the residency status of individuals. We look at RAPID data over time to determine the most likely residency status for individuals. Changes in residency status are indicative of immigration and emigration. We make adjustments for individuals that may not interact with the systems that make up RAPID, but who remain resident within the UK.

More information on the latest British nationals methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Uncertainty measures of international migration

We provide uncertainty intervals for statistics created using mainly administrative data. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys.

The uncertainty intervals for data used in this bulletin can be found in our accompanying dataset. These uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies where there is a 95% probability the intervals contain the true value, assuming that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty.

However, our uncertainty intervals should be interpreted with caution. Our simulations do not measure all main sources of uncertainty and likely underreport uncertainty with international migration estimates.

Currently, long-term international migration uncertainty intervals only quantify the doubt associated with:

• adjustments to non-EU+ estimates

• adjustments to EU+ estimates

• adjustments and temporal disaggregation to the British nationals estimates

Some main sources of uncertainty, like uncertainty associated with the administrative data, are not included.

We are working to further improve our uncertainty measures so that they will cover a greater range of sources of uncertainty. We explore uncertainty intervals based on the stability of our estimates associated with revisions in our Predicting the stability of non-EU+ long-term international migration estimates methodology.

For more explanation on the uncertainty measures, see our Quantifying uncertainty in headline international migration estimates working paper and our Measuring uncertainty in international migration estimates working paper.

Strengths and limitations

The estimates for the most recent time periods in our data series (YE March 2025 to YE December 2025) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period.

We update assumptions that feed into our provisional estimates to reflect changing behaviour. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to a range of factors that currently make any estimates of net migration more uncertain. These estimates are subject to change, both because of methods of refinement as well as scheduled revisions when more data become available. This is outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology. For more information see our research progress update.

This release coincides with the publication of the Home Office’s Immigration system statistics quarterly release and the Department for Work and Pensions’s (DWP’s) National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK release, both for the period to the end of March 2026. Numbers on visas granted may indicate trends in the arrivals of non-EU+ long-term migrants but cannot indicate the net effect after further stays and emigration because this is not taken into account. We continue to work closely with the Home Office to produce a consistent insight into UK international migration.

Further information on strengths and limitations of data sources is included in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

Statistical designation

These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. They are based on information from HOBID and RAPID from the DWP. We are developing how we collect the data and produce the statistics to improve their quality.

Once we have completed the developments, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession.

If the statistics meet trustworthiness, quality and value standards based on user feedback, we will remove the “official statistics in development” label to publish under the “official statistics” label.

If they do not meet trustworthiness, quality and value standards, we will further develop them and might stop producing them.

If they were “accredited official statistics” before the start of the developments, we will ask the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to reassess and re-accredit them.

We will inform users of the outcome of our, and any OSR, review and any changes.