Spotlight
National population projections: 2024-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The UK population is projected to reach 71 million by 2034.
- This is slower growth than our previous, 2022-based projections, which projected the UK population would reach 72.2 million by mid-2034.
- Over the first 10 years of our projections period, the population is projected to grow from 69.3 million in mid-2024 to 71.0 million in mid-2034, an increase of 1.7 million (2.5%); the increase arises from net international migration.
Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of England is projected to increase by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032 compared with 5.9% for the UK.
- Between mid-2022 and mid-2032 the population is projected to increase across all regions as well as in 302 of the 309 local authorities in England (based on 2021 boundaries).
- Tower Hamlets is projected to be the fastest growing local authority between mid-2022 and mid-2032, with a 20.4% projected population increase (excludes the City of London).
Datasets related to Population projections
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2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant
2020-based interim national population projections with assumptions of possible future international migration that reflect estimates of international migration to year ending June 2022. The potential future population size of the UK, Great Britain, England and Wales, England, Scotland and Wales. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions. Not national statistics.
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the national population projections. Contains links to the principal and variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Machine-readable data for United Kingdom principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions by five-year age groups and sex, England
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.
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Population projections for local authorities by five-year age groups and sex, England
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2024-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based
Population projections by English local authorities and health geographies. These statistics are used in planning, health and education.
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Household projections for England: 2022-based
Household projections give an indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities. Used for planning in areas such as housing and social care.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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Prospective new method for setting mortality assumptions for national population projections, UK
User engagement on a prospective model-based approach for producing mortality projections for use in national population projections (NPPs).
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Future plans for research on population estimates and projections
Outline of our work plan to address the recommendations in the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of ONS population estimates and projections.
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National and subnational population projections – user feedback
Overview of responses to our invitation to provide feedback on the future timescales for national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs) for the UK.
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National and subnational population projections - update on our invitation for user feedback
An update on the recent invitation to users to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections for the UK.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
Methodology related to Population projections
Find, compare and visualise statistics about places within the United Kingdom.