Spotlight
National population projections: 2020-based interim
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.
- England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.
- UK population growth over the next 10 years is projected to be driven by a net 2.2 million people migrating into the country.
Household projections for England: 2018-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The number of households in England is projected to increase by 1.6 million (7.1%) over the next 10 years, from 23.2 million in 2018 to 24.8 million in 2028; this level of growth is very similar to the 2016-based projections.
- Growth in the number of households is fastest where the household reference person (HRP) is of older age; 64% of the total growth in households is accounted for by households where the HRP is aged 75 years or over.
- The highest regional rate of growth in households is projected to take place in the South West, while the North East is projected to have the slowest rate.
Datasets related to Population projections
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2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant
2020-based interim national population projections with assumptions of possible future international migration that reflect estimates of international migration to year ending June 2022. The potential future population size of the UK, Great Britain, England and Wales, England, Scotland and Wales. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions. Not national statistics.
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020-based interim national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions: Table 1
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
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Population projections for local authorities: Table 2
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2020-based interim
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2018-based
Indicate potential future population size of English local and health authorities. Widely used in planning – for example labour market, housing, health and education.
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Household projections for England – household type projections: 2016-based
Indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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Prospective new method for setting mortality assumptions for national population projections, UK
User engagement on a prospective model-based approach for producing mortality projections for use in national population projections (NPPs).
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Future plans for research on population estimates and projections
Outline of our work plan to address the recommendations in the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of ONS population estimates and projections.
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National and subnational population projections – user feedback
Overview of responses to our invitation to provide feedback on the future timescales for national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs) for the UK.
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National and subnational population projections - update on our invitation for user feedback
An update on the recent invitation to users to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections for the UK.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
Methodology related to Population projections
Looking for local statistics?
A handy guide to let you know where to find local statistics.