Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2024

Long-term net migration is down by almost 50%. The number of people immigrating minus the number of people emigrating is provisionally estimated to be 431,000 in year ending (YE) December 2024, compared with 860,000 a year earlier.

This change is driven by a decrease in immigration from non-EU+ nationals, where we are seeing reductions in people arriving on work- and study-related visas, and an increase in emigration over the 18 months to December 2024, especially people leaving who originally came on study visas once pandemic travel restrictions to the UK were eased.

The provisional estimate for total long-term immigration for YE December 2024 is 948,000, a decrease of almost a third from the revised YE December 2023 estimate of 1,326,000 and the first time it has been below 1 million since YE March 2022.

The provisional estimate for total long-term emigration for YE December 2024 is 517,000, an increase of around 11% compared with the previous year (466,000). Emigration is now at a similar level to YE June 2017.

For non-EU+ nationals, there was around a 49% decrease in immigration for work (main applicants) compared with the revised estimate for the previous year-ending period. This was the largest numerical decrease (108,000) of all groups.

The decrease in immigration for study (main applicants) was smaller at around 17%, for the same period.

There was an 86% (105,000) reduction in the number of study dependants, the largest percentage decrease, and a 35% (81,000) decrease in the number of work dependants.

For this release, our methods are largely consistent with the last release published in November 2024. Revisions in this release are because of more complete travel data being available. Long-term net migration estimates for YE December 2023 and YE June 2024 have been revised downwards by 6,000 and upwards by 11,000, respectively.

When we talk about net migration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term net migration, Long-term is where people change their usual place of residence for a period of 12 months or more. Net migration is long-term immigration (people coming to the UK long-term) minus long-term emigration (people leaving the UK long-term).

Figure 1: Long-term net migration continues to fall

Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 1 shows a continued fall in long-term net migration since year ending (YE) June 2023, which is provisionally estimated to be 431,000 for the most recent period, YE December 2024.

This is lower than our updated estimate for YE December 2023 (860,000), the estimate for which has been revised downwards by 6,000. This fall is driven by the continued decrease in long-term immigration since YE December 2023, alongside the continued increase in long-term emigration since YE June 2023.

Net migration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

The latest estimates for non-EU+ net migration were positive, meaning more people arrived in the UK to remain 12 months or more, than left. The provisional net migration estimate for YE December 2024 for non-EU+ nationals was positive 544,000. By contrast, both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 96,000 and negative 17,000, respectively.

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 8: Glossary.

Figure 2: Falls in non-EU+ net migration continue to drive falls in total net migration

Long-term net migration of non-EU, EU+, and British nationals in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 13 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 2 shows recent falls in net migration are driven mainly by decreases in non-EU+ net migration. Net migration for EU+ and British nationals remains negative.

When we talk about immigration in this bulletin we are referring to long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is when people change the country where they usually live for 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant.

Immigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Our provisional estimate for immigration for year ending (YE) December 2024 is 948,000. This is lower than our updated estimate of 1,326,000 for YE December 2023.

For YE December 2024:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for around 81% of total immigration (766,000)

• EU+ nationals made up 13% (122,000)

• British nationals made up 6% (60,000)

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 8: Glossary.

Figure 3: Long-term immigration continues to fall

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals immigrating to the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 13 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 3 shows that non-EU+ nationals drove the large increases in immigration between 2020 and 2023. At the same time, there was a fall in the number of EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK. This fall begins around the time of the EU referendum in 2016, before accelerating after free movement for EU+ nationals ended when the UK left the EU in 2020.

Non-EU+ immigration has continued to fall compared with the last publication. More recent data continue to show a fall in immigration for non-EU+ nationals, with a decrease of 366,000 (32%) since YE December 2023. This is predominately driven by falls in the number of non-EU+ nationals coming for work- and study-related reasons in the most recent periods.

The fall in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of the immigration rule changes, which occurred at the beginning of 2024. Home Office visa application statistics also show the fall in 2024 for study visa applications (both main applicants and dependants). There have also been continued falls in applications for Health and Care Worker visas.

Non-EU+ immigration

In this section we take a closer look at non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK.

Reason for immigration

Data on reasons why non-EU+ nationals come to live in the UK are based on their original type of long-term visa, their asylum application or arrival under a resettlement scheme. As these are long-term migrants, they will only include people coming to work, study or stay for a year or more. Our definition of an asylum applicant can be found in Section 8: Glossary.

In YE December 2024, 266,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for study-related reasons. This is closely followed by work-related immigration (262,000 people). Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE December 2024 were asylum (95,000 people), for family reasons (76,000 people) and on humanitarian visa routes, which include British National (Overseas) visas, Ukraine Scheme visas and Resettlement (51,000 people).

Figure 4: Work and study continue to fall but remain most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by reason, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 4 shows that in YE December 2024, those immigrating for study-related and work-related reasons have decreased by around 37% and 42%, respectively, since YE December 2023. However, they remain the most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration in YE December 2024.

As the Home Office has reported in its monthly visa statistics, recent decreases in work-related and study-related immigration are related to policy reforms early in 2024 that restricted most overseas students from bringing family members to the UK, restricted care workers from bringing family members and increased salary thresholds for those on Skilled Worker visas.

There was an increase in those immigrating for asylum, increasing from 80,000 people in YE December 2023 to 95,000 people in YE December 2024. This is aligned with Home Office immigration statistics, which show an increase in asylum claims since December 2023.

Figure 5: All work-related and study-related reasons for non-EU+ immigration are decreasing

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by work- and study-related reasons, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 5 shows that non-EU+ immigration for all work- and study-related reasons decreased. The number of study main applicants decreased by around 17% since YE December 2023 to 249,000. Study dependants saw a larger fall of around 86% since YE December 2023 to 17,000. This fall is likely related to changes to the student visa route implemented in January 2024, which restricted the ability of most international students to bring family members.

Figure 5 also shows that work main applicants fell by around 49% since YE December 2023 to 113,000. Those arriving on work dependant visas fell by around 35% since YE December 2023 to 149,000.

The number of work dependants coming to live in the UK remains higher than the number of work main applicants, indicating that on average, people coming to the UK for work bring more than one dependant with them. This is consistent with trends reported in the latest Home Office data on why people come to the UK, which also shows a decrease in the number of work visas granted, for main applicants and work dependants. This also shows that Health and Care Worker visa grants have seen sustained falls for both main applicants and dependants since late 2023. Changes in work-related immigration rules that came into effect in March and April 2024 are likely to have had an impact on the latest figures.

Reason for immigration by nationality

The bar chart in Figure 6 shows that for YE December 2024, Indian was the most common non-EU+ nationality to immigrate to the UK. It also shows that for Indian, Pakistani and Nigerian nationals, work- and study-related immigration estimates were fairly similar. For Chinese nationals, study-related immigration was far more common (53,000 for study-related and 5,000 for work-related). Indian, Pakistani, Chinese and Nigerian are regularly among the top five most frequent non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration.

Characteristics

In YE December 2024, around 52% of non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK were male and around 48% were female.

The majority (83%) of non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK long term in YE December 2024 were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 16% were children (under 16 years) and around 1% were aged 65 years or over.

When we talk about emigration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term emigration. This is when a person has left the UK to live in another country for a period of at least 12 months.

Emigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Our provisional estimate of total emigration for year ending (YE) December 2024 is 517,000, which is higher than our updated estimate for YE December 2023 (466,000).

For YE December 2024:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for 43% of total emigration (222,000)

• EU+ nationals made up 42% (218,000)

• British nationals made up 15% (77,000)

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 8: Glossary.

Figure 7: Long-term emigration continues to rise

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals emigrating long-term from the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 13 in Section 9: Data sources and quality. 

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The line chart in Figure 7 shows that provisional estimates for YE December 2024 continue to show an increase in total emigration since YE June 2023. Emigration of non-EU+ nationals and EU+ nationals is now at similar levels.

Non-EU+ emigration

In this section we take a closer look at non-EU+ nationals who left the UK.

Reason for emigration

Emigration of most non-EU+ nationals by reason is derived from the original long-term visa a person held. For example, estimates of non-EU+ nationals who emigrated for study are people who have left the UK, who originally came here long-term to study.

Figure 8: Number of people emigrating who originally came to the UK on study-related visas continues to increase

Number of non-EU+ nationals emigrating long-term from the UK by original reason for immigration, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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The line chart in Figure 8 shows that the long-term emigration of non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas has continued an upward trend since YE March 2022.

In YE December 2024, 135,000 non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas emigrated long-term. This accounted for 61% of all long-term emigration for non-EU+ nationals and is an increase from 114,000 in YE December 2023.

Reason for emigration by nationality

The bar chart in Figure 9 shows overall Indian was the most common non-EU+ nationality to emigrate from the UK. It also shows that study-related emigration was the most common reason for the five most frequent non-EU+ nationalities to emigrate in YE December 2024. The increase in long-term emigration of non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas is primarily being driven by the large numbers of Indian and Chinese nationals leaving in YE December 2024.

Characteristics

In YE December 2024, around 51% of non-EU+ nationals who left the UK long-term were male and around 49% were female.

The majority (90%) of non-EU+ nationals who left the UK long-term were of working-age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 10% were children (under 16 years) and 1% were aged 65 years or over.

We are transforming population and migration statistics and developing methods for long-term international migration that make more use of administrative data.

As we do this, part of our quality assurance involves comparing our estimates of immigration with other sources of information.

Figure 10: Estimates of non-EU+ immigration compared with other available data sources

Alternative sources of non-EU+ long-term immigration estimates between year ending (YE) June 2019 and YE December 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4, 9 to 12 and 14 to 17 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

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We have updated (revised) our previously published international migration estimates from year ending (YE) September 2023 to YE June 2024.

Figure 11: Updates to headline international migration estimates

Current long-term immigration, emigration and net migration estimates compared with estimates published in November 2024, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 9: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 11 shows that immigration and emigration estimates have been revised upwards. This has resulted in smaller decreases to net migration estimates. No major methods changes have been implemented for our YE December 2024 estimates, or the revised figures back to YE September 2023. As a result, we expect smaller revisions as the only changing factor is the amount of completed data we now have to calculate our estimates. When there are methodological changes, larger revisions are expected.

We currently have a consistent methodology for our non-EU+ migration estimates, but we still need to make improvements to our British and EU+ methods. We aim to publish a research paper on estimating EU+ and British national migration ahead of our November 2025 release of long-term international migration statistics. This will be an update on our progress that we published in February 2025.

Table 1 shows updates to estimates for EU+ (EU countries and Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland), non-EU+ nationals, British nationals and the aggregate total for YE December 2023 and YE June 2024.

We note that no updates were made to estimates for EU+ for these periods. This is because of International Passenger Survey (IPS) data being temporarily unavailable to update our EU+ figures, which rely on the survey data to bridge a gap where the estimates are beyond the timeframe of the RAPID data available. As a result, estimates were rolled forward and no historical revisions made. As with previous publications, estimates for British nationals were not updated. Figures should not be combined across the year-ending periods shown as the time periods overlap (July to December 2023 are included in both).

Updates to estimates of non-EU+ nationals

Updated travel data

As more data become available, we get a more complete picture of travel behaviour, which we incorporate into our estimates. For example, when we published our estimates in November 2024, we did not have complete data to say whether those who arrived between July and December 2023 would stay long term for the YE June 2024 period, so instead we had to make assumptions. But we now have 12 months of travel data for those who arrived between July and December 2023, so we have updated our estimates.

Administrative data

Collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record-keeping. They are used for operational purposes and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies.

Asylum applicants

An asylum applicant (also referred to as "asylum seeker") is someone who makes a claim to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

"Asylum" estimates in this bulletin refer to people who have claimed asylum in the UK. It includes people who claimed asylum after arriving in the UK via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats. To avoid double counting, it excludes anyone who was already a long-term migrant in the UK prior to claiming asylum. For example, someone who arrived on a study visa and has been in the UK for at least a year before claiming asylum will be counted as a study migrant.

An asylum-related return is one where there has been an asylum claim at some stage prior to the return. For more information on this, see the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics.

British national

A British national is a person who holds a type of British (English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish) nationality. There are six different types of British nationality:

• British citizenship

• British Overseas Territories citizen

• British overseas citizen

• British subject

• British National (Overseas)

• British protected person

For the purposes of our estimates, we have treated British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) as a separate category within the non-EU+ country grouping.

British National (Overseas) (BN(O))

Someone who was a British Overseas Territories citizen by connection with Hong Kong lost that citizenship on 30 June 1997, when sovereignty returned to China. However, such a person was able to register as a British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) before 1 July 1997. For more information, see the Types of British nationality guide on GOV.UK.

On 31 January 2021, the UK launched a bespoke immigration route for BN(O) status holders and their families from Hong Kong.

Dependant visas

International migrants that have entered the UK on a visa may be eligible to bring their dependant partner or child with them through a dependant visa, subject to the type of visa the main applicant holds. A dependant partner or child is any of the following of an international migrant:

• a husband, wife, civil partner or unmarried partner

• a child under 18 years, including if they were born in the UK during the international migrant's stay

• a child over 18 years if they are currently in the UK as the international migrant's dependant

EU and EU+

EU is the European Union. It is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 1 July 2013). British nationals are not included in these numbers at any time point.

• EU2 is Romania and Bulgaria.

• EU8 is Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

• EU14 is Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

• Other EU is Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (joined from 2013).

EU+ is all current EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow of people to and from the UK. This bulletin uses the United Nations-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, which is: "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence".

Main applicant

A main applicant is an individual who has been granted leave to enter or to remain in the UK on a visa, for example, a work or study visa. Main applicants may be eligible to bring their dependant family members with them on a dependant visa.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are coming to the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the UK population.

Non-EU+

Non-EU+ is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe, not included in the EU+ category. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

"Other" reason for migration

For non-EU+ migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. "Other" reason includes people who immigrated to the UK under visas classified as:

• admin

• visit

• other

• settlement

• protection

• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

For EU+ and British migrants, the reason for migration is based on responses to the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The IPS asks migrants to identify their main reason for migration. The "Other" reason includes:

• going home to live

• other

• no reason stated, including non-responses and the non-specific response "emigrating" or "immigrating"

Ukraine visa schemes

The Ukraine Family Scheme allowed applicants to join family members or extend their stay in the UK. The Ukraine Extension Scheme allowed Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members to apply for permission to stay in the UK. The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their family members to come to the UK if they have a named sponsor under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. The reason for migration data will predominantly only show the out-of-country routes, as opposed to the extension routes.

Uncertainty estimates

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using admin data. The uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies such that 95% of those simulated intervals should contain the true value under the assumption that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. The assumptions in this bulletin do not currently account for all sources of potential error in estimates of net migration.

Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys, in which the intervals derived from 95% of all possible random samples should contain the true value.

Chart notes

1. YE: year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. See information within this section for more details on data sources and methods.
4. Long-term international migration estimates for YE September 2023 to YE June 2024 have been revised. Those for the last four year-ending periods are provisional. See Section 6: Updates to estimates.
5. Estimates do not include those arriving via asylum and humanitarian resettlement routes, though British Nationals (Overseas) and Ukraine-schemes were included in the analysis that produced these figures.
6. Estimates for non-EU+ nationals arriving in the UK by nationality in YE December 2024 have been adjusted to account for early leavers. Estimates for non-EU+ nationals leaving the UK by nationality in YE December 2024 have been adjusted to account for re-arrivals.
7. Reasons for immigration are based on initial reasons why individuals arrived in the UK. They do not show visas people may have transferred to. Work- and study-related reasons include main applicants and dependants. Humanitarian in Figures 4 and 8 is the sum across various humanitarian visa schemes presented in the main long-term international migration dataset - this calculation is done on unrounded figures. "Other" in Figures 6 and 9 refers to all other reasons aside from work-related, study-related, asylum and humanitarian resettlement. Reasons for emigration are based on the initial reason why an individual arrived in the UK.
8. See Section 8: Glossary for more information on reason for migration groupings.
9. ONS data on long-term immigration for non-EU+ nationals have been revised back to YE September 2023. RAPID data was previously revised back to YE June 2019 in the November 2024 publication. Census 2021 data, and figures on National Insurance numbers (NINos) and visas granted are for non-EU for all time periods have not been revised. 
10. The Census 2021 estimate is based on non-UK-born residents who arrived in England or Wales in the 12 months from March 2020 who intended to stay for 12 months or more, and the passport they held. Census 2021 data are for England and Wales only, the other data sources are UK flows.
11. National Insurance numbers (NINos) are generally required to work or claim benefits, so will include short-term migrants and people who may have been in the country for a while before registering. We have published a note explaining the differences between NINo registrations and our long-term international migration estimates. NINo Registrations are published by the Department for Work and Pensions in their NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK collection.
12. Visas issued by the Home Office are required for the majority of non-EU+ nationals who migrate to the UK long-term. The number of visas issued should usually exceed long-term international immigration as not everyone who has a visa will use it and not all who use it will stay long-term. 
13. Estimates for British nationals pre-Census 2021 should not be compared with post-Census 2021 estimates as the methods used to create them are different.
14. Home Office visas granted and ONS long-term immigration for non-EU+ nationals both exclude asylum and resettlement cases.
15. Home Office visas granted exclude short-term and visit visas.
16. For the May 2025 release, we have updated our ONS long-term immigration for non-EU+ nationals in the comparisons across data sources visual to exclude asylum and resettlement cases. Therefore, this visual will be different to historical versions published.
17. RAPID data includes students and under 16s.

Exceptional pre-release access to ONS migration statistics

The National Statistician has granted exceptional pre-release access to the publications 'Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2024' and 'Reason for international migration, international students update: May 2025' for two representatives of PA Media (formerly Press Association). The publications were made available at 8:45am on 22 May 2025, ahead of publication on the ONS website at 9:30am on 22 May 2025. In the opinion of the National Statistician, the access is necessary to facilitate well-informed debate and support better public understanding of the statistics, in line with the rules and principles on pre-release access set out in the relevant UK legislation.

Data sources and methods

These estimates cover the period year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024. Current and previous methods are described in our updated methodology document. A more detailed account of the methods is provided within our technical user guide.

Approaches for quality assuring methods and resulting outputs are routinely assessed via various groups. This includes the Migration Statistics Expert Group who provide advice and assurance on methodological questions. Members of this group have supported a review of the assumptions used for this round of estimation. Additionally, the ONS's Quality and Improvement team provide periodic reviews of approaches to quality assurance processes.

EU+ nationals

In November 2024, we widened our EU category to EU+ for data back to YE June 2021. EU+ is all EU countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

The Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) is used for our EU+ estimates. It is a database created by the Department for Work and Pensions and provides a single coherent view of interactions across the breadth of benefits and earnings datasets for anyone with a National Insurance number (NINo).

Read more on the latest methodology to estimate the migration of EU+ nationals in our Methods for measuring international migration using RAPID administrative data methodology. 

Non-EU+ nationals

For non-EU+ nationals we use Home Office Borders and Immigration data. This combines visa and travel information to link an individual's travel movements into and out of the country. More information is within the Home Office user guide to immigration system statistics.

To estimate non-EU+ immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual's first arrival and last departure dates to approximate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. More detailed information can be found in our technical user guide.

British nationals

There is currently no administrative source available that estimates the international migration movements of British nationals. Census data have been used to estimate British nationals over the decade from YE June 2012 to YE June 2021. Therefore, pre-Census 2021 estimates should not be compared with post-Census 2021 estimates as the methods used to create them are different. See our article Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 for more information.

International migration estimates of British nationals for YE September 2021 to YE June 2024 remained based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This collects information about passengers entering and leaving the UK. It has been running since 1961 until 1 July 2024 when it stopped surveying arrivals. People leaving the UK are still surveyed.

The redesign of the IPS means it no longer captures immigration information and because of changes in the collection methodology, emigration estimates were unavailable for this release.

To produce British national LTIM estimates we used forecasts from time series modelling based on the IPS monthly estimates. The data covered estimates from 2011 to June 2024. We then forecasted six months of estimates from July 2024 to December 2024. We produced multiple models with accompanying forecasts. Models were evaluated by using time series cross-validation and residual diagnostics. Based on model evaluation, the forecasts from a combination of models were selected to be used. The combination approach took a simple mean of the forecasts from each single model. Prediction intervals from the forecasts were used to represent the range of the uncertainty with the forecasts.

These estimates should be treated with caution. See our methodology document for more information.

We are undertaking research to provide an administrative data-based alternative.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce data to improve the quality of these statistics. Once the developments are complete, we will review with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at pop.info@ons.gov.uk.

Uncertainty measures of international migration

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using mainly administrative data and some survey data. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys.

The uncertainty intervals for data used in this bulletin can be found in the accompanying dataset. They are provided for the most recent total immigration, emigration and net migration estimates. They suggest that provisional estimates of net migration have a range of 244,000 to 589,000 in YE December 2024.

These uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies such that there is a 95% probability the intervals contain the true value, under the assumption that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty.

However, at the moment our uncertainty intervals should be interpreted with caution as our simulations do not measure all main sources of uncertainty and likely underreport uncertainty with international migration estimates.

Currently, long-term international migration uncertainty intervals only quantify the doubt associated with adjustments to non-EU+ estimates, adjustments and temporal disaggregation to the EU+ estimates, as well as sampling error from IPS estimates for British nationals. Some main sources of uncertainty, like uncertainty associated with the administrative data, are not included.

We are working to further improve our uncertainty measures so that they will cover a greater range of sources of uncertainty.

For more explanation on the uncertainty measures, see our working paper series and methods paper on uncertainty. For more information on how these uncertainty ranges have been compiled and their limitations, see our May 2024 research progress update.

Strengths and limitations

The estimates for the most recent time periods in our data series (YE March 2024 to YE December 2024) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period.

We update assumptions that feed into our provisional estimates to reflect changing behaviour. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to a range of factors, which make any estimates of net migration more uncertain at present. As outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology, these estimates are subject to change, both because of methods refinement as well as scheduled revisions when more data become available. For more information see our research progress update.

Our release coincides with the publication of the Home Office's latest immigration system statistics and the Department for Work and Pensions's National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK, both for the period to the end of September 2024. Numbers on visas granted may indicate trends in the arrivals of non-EU+ long-term migrants but cannot indicate the net effect after further stays and emigration as they are not taken into account. The ONS and Home Office continue to work together closely to produce a consistent insight into UK international migration.

Further information on strengths and limitations of data sources is included in our methodology document.

Net migration and international students

In early 2025, we undertook an engagement exercise to understand user needs regarding an additional international net migration estimate, which excludes students. User feedback was mixed on the need for this but there was an overall preference for not introducing such an estimate. It also highlighted several areas where additional information on international students would be desirable.

Following this exercise a decision has been made not to publish an additional estimate of international net migration excluding students at this time. However, we will review the suggestions provided by users and look for opportunities to take them forward through our research and development work. More information can be found in our consultation response document.