Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2025

Long-term net migration

At 204,000, long-term international net migration for the year ending (YE) June 2025 was around two-thirds lower than a year earlier (649,000 in YE June 2024). This is similar to levels seen before the introduction of the new immigration system, which was introduced after the UK left the EU. The fall is driven by fewer non-EU+ nationals arriving for work- and study-related reasons and a continued, gradual increase in levels of emigration.

Non-EU+ migration has been driving the overall trend since 2021. The provisional net migration estimate for YE June 2025 for non-EU+ nationals was positive 383,000, continuing a downward trend since 2022. By contrast, both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive. EU+ nationals' net migration is provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 continuing a downward trend since the 2016 EU referendum, and negative 109,000 for British nationals, remaining broadly stable.

Long-term immigration

The provisional estimate for total long-term immigration for the most recent period is 898,000, a decrease of 401,000 from the updated YE June 2024 estimate of 1,299,000. This continues a downward trend from the peak of 1,469,000 in YE March 2023. Most people arriving to the UK in YE June 2025 were non-EU+ nationals, estimated at 670,000, a decline from 1,063,000 in YE June 2024. This decline is primarily attributed to fewer people arriving on work and study dependant visas, where we have seen a drop of approximately 70%.

Long-term emigration

The provisional estimate for total long-term emigration for the most recent period is 693,000, an increase of 43,000 from the updated YE June 2024 estimate of 650,000. Most people who left the UK in YE June 2025 were non-EU+ nationals (286,000), with around half of those leaving originally arriving on study-related visas.

Emigration of British nationals in YE June 2025 (252,000) is now at similar levels to non-EU+ emigration.

Updates to estimates

For this release, we have new methods for EU+ and British nationals based on improved data sources, as well as more available and updated data for non-EU+ nationals. To learn more about these, in addition to the impact of the revisions on our long-term international migration estimates, please see our Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates: November 2025 article.

These latest estimates are statistics in development and provisional. They can be used for:

• understanding the latest estimates of long-term international migration, for net migration, immigration, emigration, and reason for migration

• assessing changes in trends for the nationality groups non-EU+, British and EU+

• comparing historic time series for EU+ and non-EU+ nationals, while considering the change of methods and updated data from June 2021

They cannot be used for:

• comparison with estimates before June 2021, for British nationals

• understanding the emigration of those who initially arrived on family visas; this is because of inconsistencies in some visa data where we are unable to link to second and subsequent visas, this disproportionately affects the data for individuals whose initial reason for migration was family related. Family emigration data should not be used to inform decisions until this data issue is resolved.

When we refer to net migration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term net migration. Long-term is where people change their usual place of residence for a period of 12 months or more. Net migration is long-term immigration (people coming to the UK long-term) minus long-term emigration (people leaving the UK long-term). To learn more about how we estimate long-term international migrants, please see our What is international migration and how do we estimate it? article.

Figure 1: Long-term net migration continues to fall

Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 6 to 7 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 1 shows a continued fall in long-term net migration since year ending (YE) March 2023 (944,000) to 204,000 in the YE June 2025. This is two thirds lower than our updated estimate for YE June 2024 (649,000). This fall can mainly be attributed to the continued decrease in long-term immigration to study and work since YE March 2023, alongside a continued, gradual, increase in long-term emigration since YE June 2022.  

Net migration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Definitions of British, EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 2: Fall in non-EU+ net migration continues to drive falls in total net migration

Long-term net migration of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 2 shows changes in net migration are driven mainly by decreases in non-EU+ net migration. The provisional net migration estimate for YE June 2025 for non-EU+ nationals was positive 383,000. By contrast, both EU+ and British national groups saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration provisionally estimated at negative 70,000 and negative 109,000, respectively.

When we refer to immigration in this bulletin we are referring to long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is when people change the country where they usually live for 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant. 

Immigration by British, EU+ and non-EU+ nationality

Our provisional estimate for immigration for year ending (YE) June 2025 is 898,000. This is lower than our updated estimate of 1,299,000 for YE June 2024 and below the peak in YE March 2023 (1,469,000).

For YE June 2025:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for 75% of total immigration (670,000)

• British nationals made up 16% (143,000)

• EU+ nationals made up 9% (85,000)

Definitions of British, EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 3: Long term immigration continues to fall

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals immigrating to the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 3 shows that non-EU+ nationals drove the large increases in immigration between 2020 and 2023. At the same time, there was a fall in the number of EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK. This fall in EU+ immigration began around the time of the EU referendum in 2016, before accelerating after free movement for EU+ nationals ended when the UK left the EU in 2020.

It also shows the continued fall in non-EU+ immigration since YE December 2023. In the most recent period (YE June 2025), non-EU+ immigration decreased by 37% compared with our updated estimate for YE June 2024.   

The fall in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of the immigration rule changes which occurred at the beginning of 2024.

Immigration of non-EU+ nationals

In this section we take a closer look at non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK.

Data on reasons why non-EU+ nationals come to live in the UK are based on their original type of long-term visa, their asylum application or arrival under a resettlement scheme. As these data are for long-term migrants, they will only include people coming to stay for a year or more. Our definition of an asylum applicant can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 4: Work- and study-related remain the most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by reason, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1.Please see chart notes 1 to 3, 6 to 7 and 10 to 11 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

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In YE June 2025, 288,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for study-related reasons. This was 25% lower than YE June 2024, and down from a peak of 486,000 in YE September 2023. The number of study main applicants has decreased since YE June 2024 to 275,000 in the YE June 2025, although there was a slight increase in the latest year ending periods which aligns with Home Office monthly immigration statistics. Study dependants saw a larger fall of around 85% since YE June 2024 from 87,000 to 13,000.

Work-related immigration was the next most common reason in YE June 2025 (171,000 people, a 61% decrease since YE June 2024). The number of work main applicants fell to 86,000 in YE June 2025, but work dependants saw a larger fall of 65% since YE June 2024 to 85,000.

Recent decreases in work- and study-related immigration continue to follow policy reforms early from 2024 that:

• restricted most overseas students from bringing family members to the UK

• restricted care workers from bringing family members

• increased salary thresholds for those on Skilled Worker visas

There was an increase in those immigrating for asylum, increasing from 81,000 people in YE June 2024 to 96,000 people in YE June 2025. These estimates include those who claimed asylum after arriving via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats. This is aligned with Home Office immigration statistics, which show an increase in asylum claims since June 2023.

The bar chart in Figure 5 shows that for YE June 2025, Indian was the most common non-EU+ nationality to immigrate to the UK. It also shows that for the top five nationalities, study-related immigration was the most common reason. Indian, Pakistani, Chinese and Nigerian are regularly among the top five most frequent non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration. 

Immigration of EU+ nationals

Since January 2021, following the end of freedom of movement between the EU+ and UK, EU+ nationals moving to the UK have either needed a visa, status on the EU Settlement Scheme, or indefinite leave to remain.

The new methods for estimating EU+ migration produces estimates for those who travel on a visa, for those with status on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) and Irish nationals.

Focusing on the 85,000 EU+ nationals immigrating in YE June 2025:

• those with status on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) accounted for 53% of total EU+ immigration (45,000)

• EU+ nationals who travel on visas made up 38% (32,000)

• Irish nationals made up 9% (8,000)

The bar chart in figure 6 shows that the arrival of those with EUSS drove the large increases in total EU+ immigration in 2021, before gradually slowing down in more recent periods. This is likely attributed to the last-minute applications for EUSS as the deadline to apply was 30 June 2021.

The bar chart also shows that immigration levels of Irish nationals and EU+ visa holders has remained stable.

The bar chart in Figure 7 shows that Romanian was the most common EU+ nationality to immigrate to the UK in YE June 2025, followed by Italian, Irish and French.

Characteristics of long-term immigrants

In YE June 2025, around 54% of non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK were male and around 46% were female. The vast majority (87%) of non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK long term in YE June 2025, were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 12% were children (under 16 years) and around 1% were aged 65 years or over. 

For EU+ visa holders, around 49% were male and 51% were female. Of EU+ visa holders who came to live in the UK long term in YE June 2025, the vast majority (90%) were also of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 10% were children (under 16 years) and fewer than 1% were aged 65 years or over. 

The majority (79%) of British nationals who came to live in the UK long term in YE March 2025, were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 13% were children (under 16 years) and around 8% were aged 65 years or over.

When we talk about emigration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term emigration. This is when a person has left the UK to live in another country for a period of at least 12 months. 

Emigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Our provisional estimate of total emigration for year ending (YE) June 2025 is 693,000, which is higher than our updated estimate for YE June 2024 (650,000). This is a slower year-on-year increase than observed in previous periods.

For YE June 2025:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for 41% of total emigration (286,000)

• British nationals made up 36% (252,000)

•  EU+ nationals made up 22% (155,000)

Figure 8: Long-term emigration continues to rise

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals emigrating long-term from the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 7 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 8 shows that provisional estimates for YE June 2025 continue to show an increase in total emigration since YE June 2022. This increase is mainly attributed to the recent increases in emigration for non-EU+ nationals, but the rate of the increase has slowed down compared with previous years. This could be because of more non-EU+ nationals extending their stay in the UK. The latest Home Office immigration statistics saw an increase of 23% in grants of an extension of stay in the UK for work.

Figure 8 also shows that in the most recent period, almost a third of total emigration was by British nationals. There has been a change in scale of British nationals emigrating since YE June 2021, and consequently total emigration. This is because this is when our newly developed methods are implemented, and we know the previously used International Passenger Survey had under coverage of this nationality group. For more information, please see our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article. 

Emigration of non-EU+ nationals

Emigration of most visa holders by reason is derived from the original long-term visa a person held. For example, estimates of non-EU+ nationals who emigrated for study are people who have left the UK, who originally came here long-term to study.

Figure 9: Number of people emigrating who originally came to the UK on study-related visas has begun to fall

Number of non-EU+ nationals emigrating long-term from the UK by original reason for immigration, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE June 2025

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 3, 6 and 10 to 11 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 9 shows that in YE June 2025, the most common original reasons for immigrating to the UK among non-EU+ emigrants was study and work.

The long-term emigration of non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas has begun to fall in the most recent period after a continuous upward trend since YE March 2022. In YE June 2025, 144,000 non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas emigrated long-term. This accounted for 50% of all long-term emigration for non-EU+ nationals and is likely a consequence of the large number of students, who came to the UK after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Work-related emigration continues to gradually increase for non-EU+ nationals. In YE June 2025, 64,000 non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on work-related visas emigrated long-term.

The increase in family emigration in recent periods is likely because of inconsistencies in some visa data where we are unable to link to second and subsequent visas. This disproportionately affects individuals whose initial reason for migration was family related. Therefore, family emigration data should not be used to inform decisions until this data issue is resolved.

The bar chart in Figure 10 shows, overall, Indian was the most common non-EU+ nationality to emigrate from the UK. It also shows that study-related emigration was the most common reason for the five most frequent non-EU+ nationalities to emigrate in YE June 2025. The increase in long-term emigration of non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas is primarily being driven by the large numbers of Indian and Chinese nationals leaving in YE June 2025. 

Emigration of EU+ nationals

Focusing on the 155,000 EU+ nationals that emigrated in YE June 2025:

• those with status on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) accounted for 90% of total EU+ emigration (140,000) 

• EU+ nationals who travel on visas made up 6% (10,000)

• Irish nationals made up 4% (6,000)

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary

The bar chart in Figure 11 shows that those with status of EUSS have consistently made up the majority of total EU+ emigration since YE June 2021. This is likely because those with status of EUSS have freedom of movement.

Levels of emigration for those with status of EUSS, EU+ visa holders and Irish nationals have remained fairly stable over time.

The bar chart in Figure 12 shows that for the YE June 2025, Romanian was the most common EU+ nationality to emigrate from the UK, with Polish the second most common. This is likely because the majority of emigrating Romanian (99%) and Polish (99%) nationals hold EUSS status and those with EUSS status drive most EU+ emigration.

Characteristics of long-term emigrants

In YE June 2025, around 50% of non-EU+ nationals who left the UK were male and around 50% were female. The majority (88%) of non-EU+ nationals who left the UK long term in YE June 2025, were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 11% were children (under 16 years) and around 1% were aged 65 years or over 

For EU+ visa holders, around 49% were male and 51% were female. Of EU+ visa holders who left the UK long term in YE June 2025, the majority (93%) were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 7% were children (under 16 years) and around less than 1% were aged 65 years or over. 

The vast majority (91%) of British nationals who left the UK long term in YE March 2025, were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 8% were children (under 16 years) and fewer than 1% were aged 65 years or over.

We are transforming population and migration statistics and developing methods for long-term international migration that make more use of administrative data.

As we do this, part of our quality assurance involves comparing our estimates of immigration with other sources of information.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of long-term immigration broadly align with trends seen in the Home Office data on visas granted. The number of visas granted will always be higher as not everyone will use their visa or stay long-term. Differences in the size of the gap between visas granted and ONS immigration estimates can be caused by changes in the percentage of people who use their visa and stay long-term.

ONS immigration estimates also align with data from the Department for Work and Pensions on National Insurance number (NINo) allocations. NINo data will, in general, always be lower as some people who come to the UK long-term will not have a NINo (for example, children).

For more information on our how our long-term international immigration estimates compare with other data sources, please see tables 6a and 6b in Section 8: Data for long-term international migration, provisional. 

We have updated (revised) our previously published international migration estimates from year ending (YE) June 2021 to YE December 2024.

Updates to estimates of non-EU+ nationals

Updated historical travel data

We use Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data to estimate non-EU+ migration. These data are subject to some variation with each data cut we receive. However, for the latest supply of data, larger variation was observed in historical periods because of recent improvements implemented by the Home Office.

In previous HOBI extracts, for a small number of cases multiple people were counted as one identity and were excluded from the extracts to mitigate any misleading results. Improvements to the data matching process have meant these individuals are now being counted separately. An example of this is that for YE March 2023 to YE Dec 2023 there are upwards revisions to immigration estimates, which also coincides with the peak of ONS estimates of immigration.

We are progressing with research into revisions of non-EU+ long-term international migration (LTIM) estimates and how they can impact stability of the estimates. For more information, please see our Predicting the stability of non-EU+ long-term international migration estimates methodology.

New travel data

As more data become available, we get a more complete picture of travel behaviour, which we incorporate into our estimates. For example, when we published our estimates in May 2025, we did not have complete data to say whether those who arrived between January and June 2024 would stay long term for the YE December 2024 period, instead we had to make assumptions. We now have 12 months of travel data for those who arrived between January and June 2024, so we have updated our estimates.

Updates to estimates of EU+ nationals

New data source and methodology

On November 18 2025, we published our new method for producing EU+ estimates for YE June 2021 onwards. We now estimate EU+ long-term migration using HOBI data, which are a more direct measure of migration flows.

More information on the latest EU+ methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Updates to estimates of British nationals

New data source and methodology

 On November 18 2025, we published our new method for estimating British nationals migration. British nationals' estimates are now produced using the Department for Work and Pensions Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID).

More information on the latest British national's methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Administrative data

Collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record-keeping. They are used for operational purposes and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies.

Asylum applicants

An asylum applicant (also referred to as "asylum seeker") is someone who makes a claim to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

"Asylum" estimates in this bulletin refer to people who have claimed asylum in the UK. It includes people who claimed asylum after arriving in the UK via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats. To avoid double counting, it excludes anyone who was already a long-term migrant in the UK before claiming asylum. For example, someone who arrived on a study visa and has been in the UK for at least a year before claiming asylum will be counted as a study migrant.

An asylum-related return is one where there has been an asylum claim at some stage before the return. For more information on this, see the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics.

British national

For the purposes of our estimates, we assume a British national is anyone who has a National Insurance Number (NINo) and who is not included in the Migrant Worker Scan (MWS).  

The MWS contains information on overseas nationals who have registered for, and are allocated, a NINo. UK residents typically receive a NINo through the Juvenile Registration scheme before the age of 16 years if Child Benefit was claimed on their behalf. Adults returning to the UK or not covered by Child Benefit apply through the Adult NINo Allocation service. 

If a NINo is allocated, the relevant Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) systems are updated. These people are included in the Migrant Workers Scan (MWS). A full description of this process is provided in DWP's NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK: background information and methodology.   

We also include people as British nationals' on the MWS that have been resident in the UK for many years and are likely to have become British citizens. Users should note that this definition is statistical and may differ from legal definitions of nationality. 

For full information on the definition used in our estimates, please refer to our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

British National (Overseas) (BN(O))

Someone who was a British Overseas Territories citizen by connection with Hong Kong who lost that citizenship on 30 June 1997, when sovereignty returned to China. However, such a person was able to register as a British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) before 1 July 1997. For more information, see the Types of British nationality guide on GOV.UK.

On 31 January 2021, the UK launched a bespoke immigration route for BN(O) status holders and their families from Hong Kong.

Dependant visas

International migrants that have entered the UK on a visa may be eligible to bring their dependant partner or child with them through a dependant visa, subject to the type of visa the main applicant holds. A dependant partner or child is any of the following of an international migrant:

• a husband, wife, civil partner or unmarried partner

• a child under 18 years, including if they were born in the UK during the international migrant's stay

• a child over 18 years if they are currently in the UK as the international migrant's dependant

EU and EU+

EU is the European Union. It is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 1 July 2013). British nationals are not included in these numbers at any time point.

• EU2 is Romania and Bulgaria.

• EU8 is Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

• EU14 is Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

• Other EU is Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (joined from 2013).

EU+ is all current EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.

EU settled status

EU settled status is a status available to EU+ citizens, allowing them to live and work in the UK for an indefinite period, after the UK left the EU and freedom of movement was rescinded.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow of people to and from the UK. This bulletin uses the United Nations-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, which is: "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence".

Main applicant

A main applicant is an individual who has been granted leave to enter or to remain in the UK on a visa, for example, a work or study visa. Main applicants may be eligible to bring their dependant family members with them on a dependant visa.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are coming to the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the UK population.

Non-EU+

Non-EU+ is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe, not included in the EU+ category. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

"Other" reason for migration

For non-EU+ and EU+ migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. "Other" reason includes people who immigrated to the UK under visas classified as:

• admin

• visit

• other

• settlement

• protection

• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

Ukraine visa schemes

The Ukraine Family Scheme allowed applicants to join family members or extend their stay in the UK. The Ukraine Extension Scheme allowed Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members to apply for permission to stay in the UK. The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their family members to come to the UK if they have a named sponsor under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. The reason for migration data will predominantly only show the out-of-country routes, as opposed to the extension routes.

Uncertainty estimates

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using admin data. The uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies such that 95% of those simulated intervals should contain the true value under the assumption that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. The assumptions in this bulletin do not currently account for all sources of potential error in estimates of net migration.

Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys, in which the intervals derived from 95% of all possible random samples should contain the true value.

Chart notes

1. YE: year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap. 
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. See information within this section for more details on data sources and methods. 
4. Total EU+ includes EU+ visa holders, those with status of EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) and Irish nationals.
5. Estimates for British Nationals pre-June 2021 should not be compared with post-June 2021 estimates as the methods used to create them are different. 
6. Comparisons between estimates published before and after June 2021 should be treated with caution because of changes in methodology.
7. Long-term international migration estimates for the YE June 2021 to the YE December 2024 have been revised. Those for the last four year-ending periods are provisional.
8. Estimates do not include those arriving via asylum and humanitarian resettlement routes, though British Nationals (Overseas) and Ukraine-schemes were included in the analysis that produced these figures. 
9. Estimates for non-EU+ nationals arriving in the UK by nationality in YE June 2025 have been adjusted to account for early leavers. Estimates for non-EU+ nationals leaving the UK by nationality in YE June 2025 have been adjusted to account for re-arrivals.  
10. Reasons for immigration are based on initial reasons why individuals arrived in the UK. They do not show visas people may have transferred to. Work- and study-related reasons include main applicants and dependants. Humanitarian in Figures 4 and 9 is the sum across various humanitarian visa schemes presented in the main long-term international migration dataset - this calculation is done on unrounded figures. "Other" in Figures 5 and 10 refers to all other reasons aside from work-related, study-related, asylum and humanitarian resettlement. Reasons for emigration are based on the initial reason why an individual arrived in the UK. 
11. See Section 9: Glossary for more information on reason for migration groupings. 

Data sources and methods

These estimates cover the period YE June 2012 to YE June 2025. Current and previous methods are described in our updated Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology. A more detailed account of the methods is provided within our Provisional long-term international migration estimates: technical user guide. 

Approaches for quality assuring methods and resulting outputs are routinely assessed via various groups. This includes the National Statisticians Advisory Panel who provide advice and assurance on methodological questions. Members of this group have supported a review of the assumptions used for this round of estimation. Additionally, the ONS's Quality and Improvement team provide periodic reviews of approaches to quality assurance processes. 

EU+ nationals

In November 2024, we widened our EU category to EU+ for data back to YE June 2021. EU+ is all EU countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. 

EU+ estimates before YE June 2021 were produced using the Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID). EU+ estimates for YE June 2021 and onwards are produced using Home Office Borders and Immigration data (HOBID).

Read more on the latest HOBID methodology to estimate the migration of EU+ nationals in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Non-EU+ nationals

For non-EU+ nationals we use Home Office Borders and Immigration data. This combines visa and travel information to link an individual's travel movements into and out of the country. More information is within the Home Office User guide to immigration system statistics. 

To estimate non-EU+ immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual's first arrival and last departure dates to approximate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. More detailed information can be found in our Provisional long-term international migration estimates: technical user guide. 

British nationals

Census data have been used to estimate British nationals over the decade from YE June 2012 to YE June 2021. Therefore, pre-Census 2021 estimates should not be compared with post-Census 2021 estimates, as the methods used to create them are different. For more information, see our Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 article. 

Previously for YE September 2021 onwards British nationals' migration was estimated using the International Passenger Survey (IPS). However, we have long acknowledged it has been stretched beyond its original purpose and have developed new methods that no longer rely on the survey data.  

To estimate British nationals, we have developed a method that uses RAPID data previously used to estimate EU+ migration. We create a timeseries that we can use to infer the residency status of individuals. We look at RAPID data over time to determine the most likely residency status for individuals. Changes in residency status are indicative of immigration and emigration. We make adjustments for individuals that may not interact with the systems that make up RAPID, but who remain resident within the UK.

More information on the latest British nationals' methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development. 

We are developing how we collect and produce data to improve the quality of these statistics. Once the developments are complete, we will review with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed.

Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes. 

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at pop.info@ons.gov.uk. 

Uncertainty measures of international migration

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using mainly administrative data and some survey data. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys. 

The uncertainty intervals for data used in this bulletin can be found in the accompanying dataset. They are provided for the most recent total immigration, emigration and net migration estimates. They suggest that provisional estimates of net migration have a range of 143,000 to 242,000 in YE June 2025. 

These uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies such that there is a 95% probability the intervals contain the true value, under the assumption that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty. 

However, at the moment our uncertainty intervals should be interpreted with caution as our simulations do not measure all main sources of uncertainty and likely underreport uncertainty with international migration estimates. 

Currently, long-term international migration uncertainty intervals only quantify the doubt associated with adjustments to non-EU+ estimates, adjustments to EU+ estimates as well as the adjustments and temporal disaggregation to the British nationals estimates. Some main sources of uncertainty, like uncertainty associated with the administrative data, are not included. 

We are working to further improve our uncertainty measures so that they will cover a greater range of sources of uncertainty. We recently published our Predicting the stability of non-EU+ long-term international migration estimates methodology exploring uncertainty intervals based on the stability of our estimates associated with revisions.

For more explanation on the uncertainty measures, see our Quantifying uncertainty in headline international migration estimates working paper series and our Measuring uncertainty in international migration estimates methods paper.

Strengths and limitations

The estimates for the most recent time periods in our data series (YE September 2024 to YE June 2025) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period. 

We update assumptions that feed into our provisional estimates to reflect changing behaviour. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to a range of factors, which make any estimates of net migration more uncertain at present. As outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology, these estimates are subject to change, both because of methods of refinement as well as scheduled revisions when more data become available. For more information see our research progress update. 

Our release coincides with the publication of the and DWP's National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK release, both for the period to the end of September 2025. Numbers on visas granted may indicate trends in the arrivals of non-EU+ long-term migrants but cannot indicate the net effect after further stays and emigration as they are not taken into account. We continue to work closely with the Home Office to produce a consistent insight into UK international migration. 

Further information on strengths and limitations of data sources is included in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.