Table of contents
- Main points for the 3 months to January 2016
- Summary of latest labour market statistics
- Understanding and working with labour market statistics
- Employment
- Public and private sector employment
- Employment by nationality and country of birth, not seasonally adjusted (first published on 17 February 2016)
- Actual hours worked
- Workforce jobs
- Average weekly earnings
- Labour disputes (not seasonally adjusted)
- Unemployment
- Claimant Count (experimental statistics)
- Comparison between unemployment and the Claimant Count
- Economic inactivity
- Young people in the labour market
- Redundancies
- Vacancies
- Main out of work benefits, not seasonally adjusted (first published on 17 February 2016)
- Revisions
- Accuracy of the statistics: estimating and reporting uncertainty
- Background notes
- Methodology
1. Main points for the 3 months to January 2016
There were 31.42 million people in work, 116,000 more than for August to October 2015 and 478,000 more than for a year earlier.
There were 22.94 million people working full-time, 302,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.48 million people working part-time, 177,000 more than for a year earlier.
The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.1%, the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.
There were 1.68 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 28,000 fewer than for August to October 2015 and 171,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
There were 923,000 unemployed men, 102,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There were 762,000 unemployed women, 69,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate was 5.1%, lower than for a year earlier (5.7%). The unemployment rate is the proportion of the labour force (those in work plus those unemployed) that were unemployed.
There were 8.89 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 40,000 fewer than for August to October 2015 and 136,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive) was 21.8%, lower than for a year earlier (22.2%) and only slightly higher than the record low of 21.7% last recorded for July to September 1990.
Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.1% including bonuses and by 2.2% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier.
Back to table of contents2. Summary of latest labour market statistics
Table 1 and Figure 1 show the latest estimates, for the 3 months to January 2016, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and shows how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (August to October 2015) and the previous year (the 3 months to January 2015). Comparing the 3 months to January 2016 with August to October 2015 provides the most robust short-term comparison. See Making comparisons with earlier data at Section 3 for more information.
Table 1: Summary of UK labour market statistics for 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
Number (thousands) | Change on Aug to Oct 2015 | Change on Nov to Jan 2015 | Headline Rate (%) | Change on Aug to Oct 2015 | Change on Nov to Jan 2015 | |
Employed | 31,418 | 116 | 478 | |||
Aged 16 to 64 | 30,219 | 94 | 408 | 74.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Aged 65 and over | 1,199 | 22 | 70 | |||
Unemployed | 1,685 | -28 | -171 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 |
Aged 16 to 64 | 1,667 | -26 | -169 | |||
Aged 65 and over | 18 | -2 | -2 | |||
Inactive | 19,027 | -6 | 21 | |||
Aged 16 to 64 | 8,890 | -40 | -136 | 21.8 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
Aged 65 and over | 10,137 | 34 | 157 | |||
Source: Office for National Statistics | ||||||
Notes: | ||||||
1. Calculation of headline employment rate: Number of employed people aged from 16 to 64 divided by the population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive. | ||||||
2. Calculation of headline unemployment rate: Number of unemployed people aged 16 and over divided by the sum of employed people aged 16 and over plus unemployed people aged 16 and over. | ||||||
3. Calculation of headline economic inactivity rate: Number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 divided by the population aged from 16 to 64. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive. | ||||||
4. Components may not sum exactly to totals due to rounding. |
Download this table Table 1: Summary of UK labour market statistics for 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
.xls (28.7 kB)
Figure 1: Changes in the number of people in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 1: Changes in the number of people in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xls3. Understanding and working with labour market statistics
Where to find explanatory information
Interpreting labour market statistics, available on our website, is designed to help you interpret labour market statistics and highlights some common misunderstandings.
A more detailed Guide to labour market statistics is also available.
A Glossary which explains the terms used within labour market statistics is also available.
About labour market statuses
Everybody aged 16 or over is either employed, unemployed or economically inactive. The employment estimates include all people in work including those working part-time. People not working are classed as unemployed if they have been looking for work within the last 4 weeks and are able to start work within the next 2 weeks. A common misconception is that the unemployment statistics are a count of people on benefits; this is not the case as they include unemployed people not claiming benefits.
Jobless people who have not been looking for work within the last 4 weeks or who are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks are classed as economically inactive. Examples of economically inactive people include people not looking for work because they are students, looking after the family or home, because of illness or disability or because they have retired.
Explaining the concepts of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity is available from the National Archives website as a short video.
Making comparisons with earlier data derived from the Labour Force Survey
Estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, hours worked and redundancies are derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a survey of households. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates for the 3 months to January 2016 with the estimates for August to October 2015, which were first published on 16 December 2015. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for October to December 2015. This is because the November and December data are included within both estimates, so effectively observed differences are those between the individual months of October 2015 and January 2016. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the UK population over a 3 month period, not for single month periods.
Accuracy and reliability of survey estimates
Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses and are therefore estimates rather than precise figures. Further information is available at Section 20 of this statistical bulletin.
Back to table of contents4. Employment
Introduction
Employment measures the number of people in work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. Further information is available at Notes for Employment at the end of this section.
A comparison between estimates of employment and jobs is available on our website.
Commentary
The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work is known as the employment rate. Figure 2 shows the employment rate for people aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in 1971. The lowest employment rate was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rate has been generally increasing since early 2012 and for the latest time period, the 3 months to January 2016, it reached a joint record high of 74.1%.
Figure 2: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
January to March 1971 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 2: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFigure 3 looks in more detail at the employment rate for the last 5 years.
Figure 3: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 3: UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFor the 3 months to January 2016, 74.1% of people aged from 16 to 64 were in work. This was:
- higher than for August to October 2015 (73.9%)
- higher than for a year earlier (73.3%)
- the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971
Looking at employment rates by sex, for the 3 months to January 2016:
- 79.2% of men and 69.1% of women aged from 16 to 64 were in work
- employment rates for both men and women were higher than for August to October 2015 and for a year earlier
- the employment rate for men (79.2%) was slightly higher than before the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009, when it peaked at 79.1% in late 2007 to early 2008
- the employment rate for women (69.1%) was the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971, partly due to ongoing changes to the state pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65
For the 3 months to January 2016, there were 31.42 million people in work, 116,000 more than for August to October 2015 and 478,000 more than for a year earlier.
Figure 4 shows how the estimates for full-time and part-time employment by sex for the 3 months to January 2016 compare with those for a year earlier.
Figure 4: Changes in people in employment in the UK between the 3 months to January 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 4: Changes in people in employment in the UK between the 3 months to January 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsComparing the estimates for type of employment for the 3 months to January 2016 with those for a year earlier:
- employees increased by 399,000 to 26.59 million
- self-employed people increased by 106,000 to 4.63 million
- unpaid family workers fell by 17,000 to 97,000 (see Note 2 for an explanation of the coverage of this series)
- people on government supported training and employment programmes fell by 9,000 to 97,000 (see Note 3 for an explanation of the coverage of this series)
Where to find data about employment
Employment estimates are available at Tables 1 and 3 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables A02 SA and EMP01 SA.
International comparisons of employment rates are available at Table 19 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table A10.
Estimates for the number of people in employment and for the number of self-employed people back to 1855 (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet Three centuries of data v2.2 (at columns H and N in worksheet 22).
Notes for Employment
- Employment consists of employees, self-employed people, unpaid family workers and people on government supported training and employment programmes.
- Unpaid family workers are people who work in a family business who do not receive a formal wage or salary but benefit from the profits of that business.
- The government supported training and employment programmes series does not include all people on these programmes; it only includes people engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training who are not included in the employees or self-employed series. People on these programmes NOT engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training are not included in the employment estimates; they are classified as unemployed or economically inactive.
5. Public and private sector employment
Introduction
Public sector employment measures the number of people in paid work in the public sector. The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations. Estimates of public sector employment are obtained from information provided by public sector organisations.
Private sector employment is estimated as the difference between total employment, sourced from the Labour Force Survey, and public sector employment.
Comparisons of public and private sector employment over time are impacted by changes to the composition of these sectors. For example, if a publicly owned body is privatised, public sector employment will fall and private sector employment will increase by an equivalent amount. This is known as a reclassification effect. At Table 4 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table EMP02 we therefore publish estimates of public and private sector employment excluding the effects of major, but not all, reclassifications alongside estimates of total public and private sector employment.
Commentary
There were 5.35 million people employed in the public sector for December 2015. This was:
little changed compared with September 2015
down 50,000 from a year earlier
The number of people employed in the public sector has been generally falling since March 2010.
There were 26.07 million people employed in the private sector for December 2015. This was 113,000 more than for September 2015 and 529,000 more than for a year earlier.
For December 2015, 17.0% of people in employment worked in the public sector (the lowest proportion since comparable records began in 1999) and the remaining 83.0% worked in the private sector.
Figure 5 shows public sector employment as a percentage of all people in employment for the last 5 years.
Figure 5. UK public sector employment as a percentage of total UK employment, seasonally adjusted
December 2010 to December 2015
Source: Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey - Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- In June 2012 some educational bodies were reclassified to the private sector.
- In December 2013 Royal Mail plc was reclassified to the private sector.
- In March 2014 Lloyds Banking Group plc was reclassified to the private sector.
Download this chart Figure 5. UK public sector employment as a percentage of total UK employment, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsComparisons of public and private sector employment over time are complicated by several large employers moving between the public and private sectors. We therefore publish estimates of public and private sector employment excluding the effects of major reclassifications alongside estimates of total public and private sector employment at Table 4 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table EMP02.
Where to find data about public and private sector employment
Public and private sector employment estimates are available at Tables 4 and 4(1) of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables EMP02 and EMP03.
Further information on public sector employment is available in the Public sector employment release.
Back to table of contents6. Employment by nationality and country of birth, not seasonally adjusted (first published on 17 February 2016)
Introduction
The estimates of employment by both nationality and country of birth relate to the number of people in employment rather than the number of jobs. Changes in the series therefore show net changes in the number of people in employment, not the proportion of new jobs that have been filled by UK and non-UK workers. These estimates should not be used as a proxy for flows of foreign migrants into the UK.
The estimates are not seasonally adjusted and it is therefore best practice to compare the estimates for October to December 2015 with those for a year earlier rather than with those for July to September 2015.
Commentary
Looking at the estimates by nationality, between October to December 2014 and October to December 2015:
- UK nationals working in the UK increased by 278,000 to 28.28 million
- non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 254,000 to 3.22 million
Looking at changes in non-UK nationals working in the UK between October to December 1997 and October to December 2015:
- the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased from just over 1 million to 3.22 million
- the proportion of all people working in the UK accounted for by non-UK nationals increased from 3.8% to 10.2%
- this increase in non-UK nationals working in the UK reflects the admission of several new member states to the European Union (EU)
Looking in more detail at non-UK nationals working in the UK, between October to December 2014 and October to December 2015:
- non-UK nationals from the EU working in the UK increased by 215,000 to 2.04 million
- non-UK nationals from outside the EU working in the UK increased by 38,000 to 1.18 million
Figure 6 shows the number of non-UK nationals from EU and non-EU countries working in the UK from October to December 1997 to October to December 2015.
Figure 6: Non-UK nationals working in the UK, not seasonally adjusted
October to December 1997 to October to December 2015
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 6: Non-UK nationals working in the UK, not seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsAs shown in Figure 6, since January to March 2009, the number of non-UK nationals from outside the EU working in the UK has been broadly flat but the number of non-UK nationals from EU countries working in the UK has continued to increase.
For October to December 2015, there were 5.06 million people born abroad working in the UK, but the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK was much lower at 3.22 million. This is because the estimates for people born abroad working in the UK include some UK nationals.
Looking at the estimates by country of birth, between October to December 2014 and October to December 2015:
- UK born people working in the UK increased by 258,000 to 26.42 million
- non-UK born people working in the UK increased by 281,000 to 5.06 million
Where to find data about employment by nationality and country of birth
Estimates of employment by nationality and country of birth are available at Table 8 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table EMP06.
Back to table of contents7. Actual hours worked
Introduction
Actual hours worked measures the number of hours worked in the economy. Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.
Commentary
Total hours worked per week were 1.01 billion for the 3 months to January 2016. This was:
- 10.3 million (1.0%) more than for August to October 2015
- 13.6 million (1.4%) more than for a year earlier
The increase in hours worked per week between August to October 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016 reflected an increase of 116,000 in the number of people in work (as explained at Section 4) as well as an increase in average hours worked per week.
For the 3 months to January 2016:
- people worked, on average, 32.2 hours per week, 0.2 hours more than for August to October 2015 but little changed compared with a year earlier
- people working full-time worked, on average, 37.5 hours per week in their main job, 0.3 hours more than for August to October 2015 but little changed compared with a year earlier
- people working part-time worked, on average, 16.4 hours per week in their main job, 0.2 hours more than for August to October 2015 and 0.3 hours more than for a year earlier
Figure 7 shows total hours worked and the number of people in work, as indices, for the last 5 years.
Figure 7: Total hours worked and number of people in work in the UK, seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 7: Total hours worked and number of people in work in the UK, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data about hours worked
Hours worked estimates are available at Tables 7 and 7(1) of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables HOUR01 SA and HOUR02 SA.
Estimates for average weekly hours worked back to 1855 (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet Three centuries of data v2.2 (at column Q in worksheet 22).
Back to table of contents8. Workforce jobs
Introduction
Workforce jobs measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates are mainly sourced from employer surveys. Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey, as employment is an estimate of people and some people have more than one job.
A comparison between estimates of employment and jobs is available on our website.
Commentary
For December 2015 there were 33.78 million workforce jobs, 69,000 more than for September 2015 and 370,000 more than for a year earlier. Figure 8 shows changes in the number of jobs by industrial sector between December 2014 and December 2015.
Figure 8: Changes in the number of jobs in the UK between December 2014 and December 2015, seasonally adjusted
Source: Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 8: Changes in the number of jobs in the UK between December 2014 and December 2015, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsLooking at a longer term comparison, between June 1978 (when comparable records began) and December 2015:
the proportion of jobs accounted for by the manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors fell from 26.4% to 8.1%
the proportion of jobs accounted for by the services sector increased from 63.2% to 83.1%
While comparable estimates for workforce jobs by industry begin in 1978, some historical information back to 1841, not comparable with the latest estimates, are available from 2011 Census Analysis, 170 years of industry.
Where to find data about workforce jobs
Jobs estimates are available at Tables 5 and 6 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables JOBS01 and JOBS02.
Back to table of contents9. Average weekly earnings
Introduction
Average Weekly Earnings measures money paid to employees in Great Britain in return for work done, before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates do not include earnings of self- employed people. Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonuses) and for regular pay (which excludes bonus payments). Estimates are available in both nominal terms (not adjusted for consumer price inflation) and real terms (adjusted for consumer price inflation). The estimates are not just a measure of pay settlements as they also reflect compositional changes within the workforce. Further information is available at Notes for Earnings at the end of this section.
Commentary
For January 2016 in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation):
average regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £467 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £457 per week for a year earlier
average total pay (including bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £497 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £485 per week for a year earlier
Between the 3 months to January 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016, in nominal terms, regular pay increased by 2.2%, higher than the growth rate between October to December 2014 and October to December 2015 (2.0%).
Between the 3 months to January 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016, in nominal terms, total pay increased by 2.1%, higher than the growth rate between October to December 2014 and October to December 2015 (1.9%).
Figure 9 compares the annual growth rates for both regular and total pay, in nominal terms, for the last 5 years.
Figure 9: Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Monthly Wages & Salaries Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 9: Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsLooking at longer term movements, since comparable records began in 2000 average total pay for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased from £311 a week in January 2000 to £497 a week in January 2016; an increase of 59.7%. Over the same period the Consumer Prices Index increased by 38.4%.
Between the 3 months to January 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016 in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation):
regular pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.0%
total pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.0%
A more detailed analysis of earnings growth in real terms is available at Supplementary Analysis of Average Weekly Earnings.
Where to find data about average weekly earnings
Estimates of average weekly earnings in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Tables 15, 16 and 17 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables EARN01, EARN02 and EARN03.
Estimates of average weekly earnings in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Table 18 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at data table X04.
While comparable records for average weekly earnings start in 2000, modelled estimates back to 1963 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available at data table EARN02.
Estimates back to 1750 (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet Three centuries of data v2.2 (at column G in worksheet 21).
Where to find more information about earnings
A supplementary analysis of Average Weekly Earnings which includes estimates of real earnings (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) is available on our website.
An article looking at bonus payments was published on 26 August 2015.
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), published on 18 November 2015, provides more detailed data for 2015.
Notes for Average Weekly Earnings
- The estimates relate to Great Britain and include salaries but not unearned income, benefits in kind or arrears of pay.
- As well as pay settlements, the estimates reflect bonuses, changes in the number of paid hours worked and the impact of employees paid at different rates joining and leaving individual businesses. The estimates also reflect changes in the overall structure of the workforce; for example, more low paid jobs in the economy would have a downward effect on the earnings growth rate.
- Lloyds Banking Group plc is reclassified to the private sector from April 2014 following the sale of some government owned shares to private sector investors. It is classified to the public sector between July 2009 and March 2014. We estimate that, if the April 2014 reclassification had not occurred, the public sector single month growth rates between April 2014 and March 2015 would have been around 0.3 percentage points higher and the corresponding private sector growth rates would have been around 0.1 percentage points lower.
10. Labour disputes (not seasonally adjusted)
Introduction
Labour disputes estimates measure strikes connected with terms and conditions of employment.
Commentary
In January 2016, there were 20,000 working days lost from 9 stoppages. Most of the working days lost in January 2016 were due to a 1 day strike by junior doctors in the National Health Service in England. For the 12 months ending January 2016, there were 167,000 working days lost from 113 stoppages.
Since monthly records began in December 1931:
the highest cumulative 12 month estimate for working days lost was 32.2 million for the 12 months to April 1980
the lowest cumulative 12 month estimate for working days lost was 143,000 for the 12 months to March 2011
Working days lost are at historically low levels when looking at the longer run time series back to the 1930s, available at data table LABD01.
Figure 10 shows cumulative 12 month totals for working days lost for the last 5 years.
Figure 10. Working days lost in the UK cumulative 12 month totals, not seasonally adjusted
January 2011 to January 2016
Source: Labour Disputes Inquiry - Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- The figures from November 2011 to October 2012 and from July 2014 to June 2015 are affected by 1 day strikes on 30 November 2011 and 10 July 2014 relating to changes to pension schemes and pay for some public sector workers.
Download this chart Figure 10. Working days lost in the UK cumulative 12 month totals, not seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data about labour disputes
Labour disputes estimates are available at Table 20 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table LABD01.
Where to find more information about labour disputes
An article providing more detailed information was published on 16 July 2015.
Back to table of contents11. Unemployment
Introduction
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last 4 weeks and are available to start work within the next 2 weeks.
The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed. This follows guidelines specified by the International Labour Organisation and it ensures that UK unemployment rates are broadly comparable with those published by other countries.
Commentary
The proportion of economically active people aged 16 and over who are out of work and seeking work is known as the unemployment rate. As shown at Figure 11, the lowest unemployment rate recorded since comparable records began in 1971 was 3.4% in late 1973 to early 1974 and the highest rate, 11.9%, was recorded in 1984 during the downturn of the early 1980s. The unemployment rate for the latest time period, the 3 months to January 2016, was 5.1%.
Figure 11: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted
January to March 1971 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 11: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFigure 12 looks in more detail at the unemployment rate for the last 5 years.
Figure 12: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 12: UK Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsThe unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over for the 3 months to January 2016 was 5.1%. This was:
- down slightly from August to October 2015 (5.2%)
- down from a year earlier (5.7%)
- slightly lower than the pre-downturn trough of 5.2% for late 2007 to early 2008
The last time the unemployment rate was lower than 5.1% was for August to October 2005. For the 3 months to January 2016, there were:
- 1.68 million unemployed people, 28,000 fewer than for August to October 2015 and 171,000 fewer than for a year earlier
- 923,000 unemployed men, 16,000 fewer than for August to October 2015 and 102,000 fewer than for a year earlier
- 762,000 unemployed women, 12,000 fewer than for August to October 2015 and 69,000 fewer than for a year earlier
Looking at unemployment by how long people have been out of work and seeking work, for the 3 months to January 2016 there were:
- 948,000 people who had been unemployed for up to 6 months, little changed compared with a year earlier
- 257,000 people who had been unemployed for between 6 and 12 months, 25,000 fewer than for a year earlier
- 480,000 people who had been unemployed for over 12 months, 149,000 fewer than for a year earlier
Where to find data about unemployment
Unemployment estimates for the UK are available at Table 9 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table UNEM01 SA.
Estimates for the unemployment level and rate back to 1870 (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet Three centuries of data v2.2 (at columns P and U in worksheet 22).
International comparisons of unemployment rates are available at Table 19 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at data table A10.
Back to table of contents12. Claimant Count (experimental statistics)
Introduction
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits:
between January 1971 (when comparable estimates start) and September 1996 it is an estimate of the number of people who would have claimed unemployment related benefits if Jobseeker's Allowance had existed at that time
between October 1996 and April 2013 the Claimant Count is a count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA)
from May 2013 the Claimant Count includes all out of work Universal Credit claimants as well as all JSA claimants
Ideally only those Universal Credit claimants who are out of work and required to seek work should be included in the Claimant Count but it is not currently possible to produce estimates on this basis. The Claimant Count therefore currently includes some out of work claimants of Universal Credit who are not required to look for work; for example, due to illness or disability.
The Claimant Count estimates are currently designated as experimental statistics because the Universal Credit estimates are still being developed by the Department for Work and Pensions. However the Claimant Count estimates do provide the best available estimates of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in the UK.
The Claimant Count includes people who claim unemployment related benefits but who do not receive payment. For example some claimants will have had their benefits stopped for a limited period of time by Jobcentre Plus. Some people claim JSA in order to receive National Insurance Credits.
Commentary
Figure 13 shows the Claimant Count since comparable records began in 1971. It shows that the lowest number of people claiming unemployment related benefits was 422,600 in December 1973 and the highest figure was 3.09 million in July 1986. For the latest month, February 2016, there were 716,700 people claiming unemployment related benefits, the lowest since April 1975.
Figure 13: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted
January 1971 to February 2016
Source: Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions
Download this chart Figure 13: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsLooking in more detail at the most recent 5 years, Figure 14 shows the Claimant Count from February 2011 to February 2016.
Figure 14: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted
February 2011 to February 2016
Source: Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions
Download this chart Figure 14: UK Claimant Count, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFor February 2016 there were 716,700 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This consisted of:
605,400 people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance
111,300 people who were out of work and claiming Universal Credit
For February 2016 there were 716,700 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This was:
18,000 fewer than for January 2016
102,500 fewer than for a year earlier
the lowest since April 1975
For February 2016 there were:
452,300 men claiming unemployment related benefits, 12,900 fewer than for January 2016 and 70,000 fewer than for a year earlier
264,400 women claiming unemployment related benefits, 5,100 fewer than for January 2016 and 32,500 fewer than for a year earlier
Where to find data about the Claimant Count
Claimant Count estimates are available at Table 10 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table CLA01.
While comparable records start in 1971, some data back to 1881 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available from the “Historic Data” worksheet within dataset table CLA01.
Back to table of contents13. Comparison between unemployment and the Claimant Count
Unemployment is measured according to internationally accepted guidelines specified by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Unemployed people in the UK are:
without a job, have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next 2 weeks
out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next 2 weeks
People who meet these criteria are classified as unemployed irrespective of whether or not they claim Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) or other benefits. The estimates are derived from the Labour Force Survey and are published for 3 month average time periods.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. As explained at Section 12 of this statistical bulletin, the Claimant Count estimates are designated as experimental statistics. In this section of the bulletin we compare quarterly movements in unemployment with quarterly movements in the Claimant Count. Some claimants will not be classified as unemployed. For example, people in employment working fewer than 16 hours a week can be eligible to claim JSA depending on their income.
Figure 15 and dataset table X05 compare quarterly movements in unemployment and the Claimant Count for the same 3 month average time periods. The unemployment estimates shown in this comparison exclude unemployed people aged between 16 to 17 and 65 and over as well as unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education. This provides a more meaningful comparison with the Claimant Count than total unemployment because people in these population groups are not usually eligible to claim unemployment related benefits.
When 3 month average estimates for the Claimant Count are compared with unemployment estimates for the same time periods and for the same population groups (people aged from 18 to 64 excluding 18 to 24 year olds in full-time education), between August to October 2015 and the 3 months to January 2016:
unemployment fell by 38,000
the Claimant Count fell by 25,000
Figure 15: Quarterly changes in Unemployment and the Claimant Count for the UK (aged 18 to 64), seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Office for National Statistics, Department for Work and Pensions
Notes:
- Unemployment estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households). The unemployment figures in this chart, and dataset table X05, exclude unemployed people aged from 18 to 24 in full-time education.
- Claimant Count estimates are sourced from administrative data from Jobcentre Plus (part of the Department for Work and Pensions).
Download this chart Figure 15: Quarterly changes in Unemployment and the Claimant Count for the UK (aged 18 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xls14. Economic inactivity
Introduction
Economically inactive people are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.
Commentary
The proportion of people, aged from 16 to 64, not in work and neither seeking nor available to work is known as the economic inactivity rate. Figure 16 shows the economic inactivity rate for people aged from 16 to 64 since comparable records began in 1971.
Figure 16 shows that the economic inactivity rate increased during the downturn of the early 1980s reaching a record high of 25.9% in 1983. As the economy improved in the late 1980s, the economic inactivity rate resumed its downward path, reaching a record low of 21.7% in late 1989 and 1990, before the economic downturn of the early 1990s drove it back up again. Following an increase in the economic inactivity rate during the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009, it resumed its generally downward path.
Figure 16: UK Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
January to March 1971 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 16: UK Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFigure 17 shows the economic inactivity rate for people for the last 5 years.
Figure 17: UK Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 17: UK Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsSince comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for men has been gradually rising while the rate for women has been gradually falling.
The economic inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for the 3 months to January 2016 was 21.8%. This was lower than for a year earlier (22.2%) and only slightly higher than the record low of 21.7% last recorded for July to September 1990.
For the 3 months to January 2016, there were 8.89 million people aged from 16 to 64 not in work and neither seeking nor available to work (known as economically inactive). This was:
- 40,000 fewer than for August to October 2015
- 136,000 fewer than for a year earlier
Looking in more detail at the 8.89 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive for the 3 months to January 2016, the 2 largest categories were students and people looking after the family or home (each of which accounted for just over a quarter of the total):
- there were 2.23 million people who were not looking for work because they were studying, 93,000 fewer than for a year earlier
- there were 2.26 million people (of which 2.01 million were women) who were not looking for work because they were looking after the family or home, 52,000 fewer than for a year earlier
The third and fourth largest categories were long-term sick (23.4% of the total) and retired (13.1% of the total):
- there were 2.08 million people who were not looking for work due to long-term sickness, 70,000 more than for a year earlier
- there were 1.17 million people who were not looking for work because they had retired, 112,000 fewer than for a year earlier
As shown in Figure 18, which shows the 4 largest categories of economic inactivity for the last 5 years, the number of people younger than 65 in the retired category has been generally falling since late 2011. This is largely due to ongoing changes to the state pension age for women resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65.
Figure 18: Economic inactivity by main category in the UK (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
November to January 2011 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 18: Economic inactivity by main category in the UK (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data on economic inactivity
Economic inactivity estimates are available at Tables 1 and 13 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables A02 SA and INAC01 SA.
Back to table of contents15. Young people in the labour market
Introduction
This section looks at people aged from 16 to 24. It is a common misconception that all people in full- time education are classified as economically inactive. This is not the case as people in full-time education are included in the employment estimates if they have a part-time job and are included in the unemployment estimates if they are seeking part-time work.
Commentary
For the 3 months to January 2016, for people aged from 16 to 24, there were:
- 3.96 million people in work (including 983,000 full-time students with part-time jobs)
- 630,000 unemployed people (including 217,000 full-time students looking for part-time work)
- 2.62 million economically inactive people, most of whom (2.00 million) were full-time students
Figure 19: Young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour market for the 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Notes:
FTE = Full-time education.
The "Not in full-time education" series includes people in part-time education and/or some form of training.
Download this chart Figure 19: Young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour market for the 3 months to January 2016, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFigure 20 shows how the latest estimates, for the 3 months to January 2016, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for people aged from 16 to 24 compare with the previous quarter (August to October 2015) and the previous year (the 3 months to January 2015).
Figure 20: Changes in the number of young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 20: Changes in the number of young people (aged 16 to 24) in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsFor the 3 months to January 2016, the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds was 13.7%, slightly lower than the pre-downturn trough of 13.8% for the 3 months ending February 2008.
The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 has been consistently higher than that for older age groups. Since comparable records began in 1992:
- the lowest youth unemployment rate was 11.6% for March to May 2001
- the highest youth unemployment rate was 22.5% for late 2011
Between March to May 1992 (when comparable records began) and the 3 months to January 2016 the proportion of young people who were in full-time education increased substantially from 26.2% to 44.5%. This increase in the number of young people going into full-time education has reduced the size of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) and therefore increased the unemployment rate (because the unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed).
Where to find data on young people in the labour market
Estimates for young people in the labour market are available at Table 14 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table A06 SA.
Where to find more information about young people in the labour market
Estimates for young people who were Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) for October to December 2015 were published on 25 February 2016.
Back to table of contents16. Redundancies
Introduction
The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who have been made redundant or have taken voluntary redundancy.
Commentary
For the 3 months to January 2016, 111,000 people had become redundant in the 3 months before the Labour Force Survey interviews. This was little changed compared with August to October 2015 and with a year earlier.
Figure 21: Number of redundancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted
March to May 1995 to November to January 2016
Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 21: Number of redundancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data on redundancies
Redundancies estimates are available at Tables 23 and 24 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables RED01 SA and RED02.
Back to table of contents17. Vacancies
Introduction
Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their business or organisation.
Commentary
There were 768,000 job vacancies for the 3 months to February 2016. This was:
10,000 more than for September to November 2015
26,000 more than for a year earlier
Figure 22 shows the number of job vacancies since comparable records began in 2001.
Figure 22: Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted
April to June 2001 to December to February 2016
Source: Vacancy Survey: Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 22: Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data about vacancies
Vacancies estimates are available at Tables 21, 21(1) and 22 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset tables VACS01, VACS02 and VACS03.
Back to table of contents18. Main out of work benefits, not seasonally adjusted (first published on 17 February 2016)
Introduction
Main out of work benefits includes claimants of unemployment related benefits and Employment and Support Allowance and other incapacity benefits. It also includes claimants of Income Support and Pension Credit. While most people claiming these benefits are out of work a small number are in employment. These estimates exclude claimants in Northern Ireland.
The estimates are not seasonally adjusted and it is therefore best practice to compare the estimates for August 2015 with those for a year earlier rather than with those for May 2015.
Commentary
For August 2015 there were 3.79 million people claiming main out of work benefits. This was:
- 229,700 fewer than for a year earlier
- the lowest since comparable records began in 1999
For August 2015, 9.5% of the population aged from 16 to 64 were claiming main out of work benefits. This was:
- down from 10.1% for a year earlier
- the lowest since comparable records began in 1999
Figure 23 shows, for the last 5 years, the proportion of the population aged from 16 to 64 claiming main out of work benefits.
Figure 23: Proportion of Great Britain population (aged 16 to 64) claiming main out of work benefits, not seasonally adjusted
August 2010 to August 2015
Source: Department for Work and Pensions, Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 23: Proportion of Great Britain population (aged 16 to 64) claiming main out of work benefits, not seasonally adjusted
Image .csv .xlsWhere to find data about main out of work benefits
Estimates of claimants of main out of work benefits are available at Table 11 of the pdf version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset table BEN01.
Back to table of contents19. Revisions
Estimates for the most recent time periods are subject to revision due to the receipt of late and corrected responses to business surveys and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re- estimated every month. Estimates are subject to longer run revisions, on an annual basis, resulting from reviews of the seasonal adjustment process. Estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households) are usually only revised once a year. Revisions to estimates derived from other sources are usually minor and are commented on in the statistical bulletin if this is not the case. Further information is available in the labour market statistics revisions policy.
One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this statistical bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Dataset tables EMP05, UNEM04, JOBS06 and CLA03 record the size and pattern of revisions over the last five years. These indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data itself may be subject to sampling or other sources of error. Our standard presentation is to show 5 years worth of revisions (60 observations for a monthly series, 20 for a quarterly series).
Back to table of contents20. Accuracy of the statistics: estimating and reporting uncertainty
Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to allow for this, and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to some uncertainty. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.
We can calculate the level of uncertainty (also called “sampling variability”) around a survey estimate by exploring how that estimate would change if we were to draw many survey samples for the same time period instead of just one. This allows us to define a range around the estimate (known as a “confidence interval”) and to state how likely it is in practice that the real value that the survey is trying to measure lies within that range. Confidence intervals are typically set up so that we can be 95% sure that the true value lies within the range – in which case we refer to a “95% confidence interval”.
For example, the unemployment rate for the 3 months to January 2016 was estimated to be 5.1%. This figure had a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.2 percentage points. This means that we can be 95% certain that the true unemployment rate for the 3 months to January 2016 was between 4.9% and 5.3%. However, the best estimate from the survey was that the unemployment rate was 5.1%.
The number of people unemployed for the same period was estimated at 1,685,000, with a stated 95% confidence interval of +/- 72,000. This means that we can be 95% sure that the true number of unemployed people was between 1,613,000 and 1,757,000. Again, the best estimate from the survey was that the number of unemployed people was 1,685,000.
As well as calculating precision measures around the numbers and rates obtained from the survey, we can also calculate them for changes in the numbers. For example, for the 3 months to January 2016, the estimated change in the number of unemployed people since August to October 2015 was a fall of 28,000, with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 79,000. This means that we can be 95% certain the actual change in unemployment was somewhere between an increase of 51,000 and a fall of 107,000, with the best estimate being a fall of 28,000. As the estimated fall in unemployment of 28,000 is smaller than the confidence interval of 79,000, the estimated fall in unemployment is said to be “not statistically significant”.
Working with uncertain estimates
In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this statistical bulletin between 3 month periods are small, and are not usually greater than the level that is explainable by sampling variability. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates (for example within +/- 0.3 percentage points) should be treated as indicative, and considered alongside medium and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.
Seasonal adjustment and uncertainty
Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, such as since the previous quarter or since the previous month, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar. All estimates discussed in this statistical bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. While seasonal adjustment is essential to allow for robust comparisons through time, it is not possible to estimate uncertainty measures for the seasonally adjusted series.
Where to find data about uncertainty and reliability
Dataset table A11 shows sampling variabilities for estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey.
Dataset table JOBS07 shows sampling variabilities for estimates of workforce jobs.
The sampling variability of the 3 month average vacancies level is around +/- 1.5% of that level.
Sampling variability information for Average Weekly Earnings growth rates are available from the “Sampling Variability” worksheets within data tables EARN01 and EARN03.
Back to table of contents