UK House Price Index: January 2020

• UK average house prices increased by 1.3% over the year to January 2020, down from 1.7% in December 2019.

• Average house prices increased over the year in England to £247,000 (1.1%), Wales to £162,000 (2.0%), Scotland to £152,000 (1.6%) and Northern Ireland to £140,000 (2.5%).

• Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands have seen an annual house price growth of 3.1% and 2.6% respectively, this growth has been partially offset by the negative growth in the East of England (negative 0.6%) and the South East of England (negative 0.5%).

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a public statement on the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the production of statistics. Measuring the data describes the situation in relation to the UK House Price Index (HPI).

UK average house prices increased by 1.3% over the year to January 2020

The latest house price data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry for January 2020 show that average house prices in the UK increased by 1.3% in the year to January 2020, down from 1.7% in the year to December 2019 (Figure 1). Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England.

The average UK house price was £231,000 in January 2020; this is £3,000 higher than in January 2019 (Figure 2). On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK decreased by 1.1% between December 2019 and January 2020, compared with a decrease of 0.6% in the same period a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK decreased by 0.4% between December 2019 and January 2020, following an increase of 0.6% in the previous month.

House price growth in Wales increased by 2.0% over the year to January 2020, down from 2.7 % in December 2019, with the average house price in Wales at £162,000.

The average house price in Scotland increased by 1.6% over the year to January 2020, down from 2.0% in the year to December 2019, with the average house price in Scotland now at £152,000.

The average house price in England increased by 1.1% over the year to January 2020, down from 1.6% in the year to December 2019, with the average house price in England now at £247,000.

The average house price in Northern Ireland increased by 2.5% over the year to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019. Northern Ireland remains the cheapest UK country to purchase a property in, with the average house price at £140,000 (Figure 3).

Yorkshire and The Humber was the English region with the highest annual house price growth, with prices increasing by 3.1% in the year to January 2020 (Figure 4). This was followed by the West Midlands, increasing by 2.6%.

The lowest annual growth was in the East of England, where prices decreased by 0.6% over the year to January 2020. This was followed by the South East of England, where prices decreased by 0.5% over the year.

London house prices increased by 1.4% over the year to January 2020, down from 1.8% in December 2019.

London house prices remain the most expensive at an average of £477,000. The North East continued to have the lowest average house price, at £127,000, and is the only English region yet to surpass its pre-economic downturn peak of July 2007 (Figure 5).

House Price Index (HPI)

The House Price Index (HPI) measures the price changes of residential housing as a percentage change from a specific time period (12 months prior or a base period, where HPI = 100).

House price inflation

House price inflation in the UK is the rate at which the prices of residential properties purchased in the UK rise and fall.

Non-seasonally adjusted

A non-seasonally adjusted series is one that includes seasonal or calendar effects.

Seasonally adjusted

A seasonally adjusted series is one that has been subject to a widely used technique for removing seasonal or calendar effects from time series data.

The UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). HM Land Registry publishes the main publication of the UK HPI on the GOV.UK website today (9:30am, 25 March 2020). It includes full details, including commentary, historical data tables and analytical tools.

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, we are working to ensure that we continue to publish the UK HPI. The price collection for this publication has been largely unaffected. As this situation evolves, we are developing several solutions to meet potential scenarios depending on the amount of data that is able to be collected by our data suppliers to ensure we are still able to produce the publication over the coming months. These include considering incorporating fewer transactions into the indices or using the previous month’s movements to construct the latest volume estimates. Users will be informed of any changes to how the data are measured.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a public statement on COVID-19 and the production of statistics. Specific queries must be directed to the Media Relations Office.

After EU withdrawal

As the UK leaves the EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. During the transition period, those UK statistics that align with EU practice and rules will continue to do so in the same way as before 31 January 2020.

After the transition period, we will continue to produce our inflation statistics in line with the UK Statistics Authority’s (UKSA’s) Code of Practice for Statistics and in accordance with internationally agreed statistical guidance and standards.

Data sources

The main sources of data used in the UK are HM Land Registry for England and Wales, Registers of Scotland, and HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Stamp Duty Land Tax data for the Northern Ireland HPI.

Methods

The standard average house price is calculated by taking the geometric mean price in January 2015 and then recalculating it in accordance with the index change back in time and forward to the present day. The UK HPI applies a hedonic regression model that utilises the various sources of data on property price and attributes to produce up-to-date estimates of the change in house prices in each period.

Upcoming changes

A change to the geography of some local authorities will be made in the February 2020 release (release date 22 April 2020). The changes are in line with the updates given by ONS Geography. These include:

• Bournemouth (E06000028), Christchurch (E07000048) and Poole (E06000029) will merge to create a new local authority “Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole” (E06000058).

• East Dorset (E07000049), North Dorset (E07000050), Purbeck (E07000050), West Dorset (E07000053) and Weymouth and Portland (E07000053) will merge to create a new local authority “Dorset” (E06000059).

• Taunton Deane (E07000190) and West Somerset (E07000191) will merge to create a new local authority “Somerset West and Taunton” (E07000246).

• Forest Heath (E07000201) and St Edmundsbury (E07000204) will merge to create a new local authority “West Suffolk” (E07000245).

• Suffolk Coastal (E07000205) and Waveney (E07000206) will merge to create a new local authority “East Suffolk” (E07000244).

• There will be a minor local authority district boundary change to City of Glasgow, its geography code will change from S12000046 to S12000049.

• There will be a minor local authority district boundary change to North Lanarkshire, its geography code will change from S12000044 to S12000050.

Following this, in our April 2020 release (to be released on 17 June 2020) the following change will be made:

• Aylesbury Vale (E07000004), Chiltern (E07000005), South Bucks (E07000006) and Wycombe (E07000007) will merge to create a new local authority “Buckinghamshire” (E06000060).

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the guidance page of the main release published by HM Land Registry on GOV.UK.

Extent of data coverage

The UK House Price Index (UK HPI) can provide a wide coverage of both cash and mortgage transactions and a large data source. Data are available at a local authority level as well as by property type, buyer status, funding statistics and property status.

Time lags

As sales only appear in the UK HPI once the purchases have been registered (based on completed sales rather than advertised or approved prices), there can be a delay before transactions feed into the index. Estimates for the most recent months are provisional and likely to be updated as more data are incorporated into the index. While changes to estimates are small at the headline level, these can be larger changes at lower geographies owing to fewer transactions being used. Caution is therefore advised when interpreting price changes in the most recent periods. Further information is provided in our revisions policy.