26 November 2019
ONS has identified a processing error which affects the annual chained volume measure (CVM) and implied deflator for a small number of household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) components. The error affects figures for 2017, 2018 and 2019 and has an impact on top level HHFCE, total gross domestic product (GDP) and Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI). At component level, the biggest impact is on the UK tourist and foreign tourist expenditure HHFCE categories.
Figures will be corrected when the relevant periods are next open for revision. For 2018 and 2019, this will be in the 2019 Q3 editions of Consumer Trends, Quarterly National Accounts and Quarterly Sector Accounts, published on 20 December 2019. For 2017 it will be in the 2020 Q2 editions, published in September 2020.
Revisions in the 2019 Q3 publications if all else was equal:
The impact on 2018 annual CVM growth at top level (national concept) HHFCE is -0.13pp. The impact on 2018 GDP CVM growth is -0.03pp. Quarterly impacts on top level HHFCE are shown below, with the impact on quarterly GDP in brackets:
2018Q1 = -0.12pp (-0.02pp)
2018Q2 = -0.01pp (0.00pp)
2018Q3 = 0.00pp (0.00pp)
2018Q4 = +0.02pp (0.00pp)
2019Q1 = 0.00pp (0.00pp)
2019Q2 = -0.01pp (0.00pp)
Within Quarterly Sector Accounts, RHDI would see revisions range from -0.2pp in 2018Q1 to +0.2pp in 2018Q3 and 2019Q2.
Please note that for 2019 Q3 we are open to other data revisions back to 2018 Q1 so these are not likely to be the final revisions seen due to the other data revisions.
Revisions in the 2020 Q2 publications if all else was equal:
In addition to the 2018 revisions noted above, there will be a further round of revisions when we open 2017 data for revisions in the 2020 Q2 Consumer Trends and Quarterly National Accounts publications.
The impact on 2017 annual CVM growth at top level (national concept) household final consumption expenditure is -0.15pp. The impact on GDP CVM growth is -0.05pp. Quarterly impacts on top level HHFCE are shown below, with the impact on quarterly GDP in brackets:
2017Q1 = -0.02pp (0.00pp)
2017Q2 = -0.06pp (-0.01pp)
2017Q3 = -0.05pp (-0.01pp)
2017Q4 = +0.04pp (+0.01pp)
Comparing 2020 Q2 publications with 2019 Q3 publications, the revision to 2018 annual CVM growth at top level (national concept) HHFCE is +0.15pp. This equates to a revision of +0.03pp to annual CVM growth in GDP. Quarterly revisions then only affect top level HHFCE at +0.15pp in 2018Q1. The equivalent 2018 Q1 impact on GDP is +0.03pp.
Within Quarterly Sector Accounts, RHDI would see revisions range from -0.1pp in five of the affected quarters to +0.2pp in 2018Q3 and 2019Q2.
In the Quarter 2 2020 publications, the revisions to total HHFCE, GDP and RHDI will be made in line with the revisions policy for Blue Book 2020. This will include any methodological improvements and new supply-use balancing for these years. This will mean that these are not likely to be the final revisions seen due to the other changes being made at that time.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused.
The components affected are:
04.1.2* ‘Other actual rentals’ ADOP, UWHJ, CSM2, CSM3
09.2.2* ‘Musical instruments and major durables for indoor recreation’ ADQN, XYJT, AWOA, AWRS
11.1.2* ‘Canteens’ ADYF, ZAYC, AWOP, AWSH
0 ‘Household final consumption expenditure: domestic concept’ ABQJ, ZAKW, UTJA, UTJN
TOURIM ‘UK tourist expenditure abroad’ ABTC, ABTD, GDPE, GDPF
TOUREX ‘Foreign tourist expenditure’ CCHX, CCV0, GDPB, GDPD
Net tourist expenditure ABTG, ABTH
Household final consumption expenditure: national concept ABPF, ABJR, ABQU, ABJS
- these components feed into higher- level COICOP series which have not all been listed.
