GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2023

• Monthly real gross domestic (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.1% in May 2023 and growth of 0.2% in April 2023, both unrevised from the previous publication.

• A range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for increased output in June 2023 compared with May 2023.

• Looking at the broader picture, GDP has shown 0.2% growth in the three months to June 2023.

• Production output grew by 1.8% in June 2023 after a fall of 0.6% in May 2023, unrevised from the previous publication; this sector was the main contributor to the growth in monthly GDP in June.

• The construction sector grew by 1.6% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2023, revised down from a fall of 0.2% in the previous publication.

• Services output was up 0.2% in June 2023, after showing no growth in May 2023, unrevised from the previous publication; output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in June 2023, following an unrevised fall of 0.2% in May 2023.

• Revisions for the periods April and May 2023 are included in this publication.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in June 2023 (Figure 1) following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in May 2023. Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.8% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020). A range of businesses cited the additional bank holiday in May as a reason for increased output in June compared with May. More information on the impact of this bank holiday can be found in Section 6: Cross-industry themes.

Looking more broadly, GDP showed 0.2% growth in the three months to June 2023 when compared with the three months to March 2023, consistent with the output section in our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2023 bulletin. Services showed 0.1% growth in the three months to June, while production grew by 0.7% and construction grew by 0.3%.

Output growth in the services sector was 0.2% in June 2023 while production and construction output grew by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. It is the first month since October 2022 that all 3 sectors contributed positively to GDP on the month.

Monthly GDP grew by 0.9% in June 2023 compared with the same month last year. For comparison, monthly GDP fell by 0.3% between May 2022 and May 2023. The Platinum Jubilee in 2022, and the movement of the May bank holiday, led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022. It should also be noted that May 2023, saw one fewer working day as there was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III. This should be considered when interpreting seasonally adjusted movements involving these months.

Service output grew 0.2% in June 2023, following no growth in May 2023, unrevised from the previous publication. Overall, the services sector grew 0.1% in the three months to June 2023 compared with the three months to March 2023. Figure 3 shows the monthly contributions from the services sector to GDP in June 2023.

The main contributor to services growth in June 2023 was information and communication, which grew by 1.3% in June 2023, following growth of 1.3% and 0.1% in April and May 2023. Five out of the six industries within this subsector saw growth on the month, with publishing activities, which includes publishing of books, newspapers, and software, having the largest contribution, growing 9.0% in June 2023.

The second largest contribution within services came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew 0.8% in June 2023, mainly caused by wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew 3.9%. Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a 25.6% increase in new car registrations compared with the same month a year ago. Retail trade, except motor vehicles and motor cycles also contributed to the growth in June 2023, our latest Retail sales, Great Britain: June 2023 bulletin estimates that retail sales volumes grew by 0.7% in June 2023.

There was also increased output from accommodation and food services, which grew 1.5% in June 2023, following a fall of 1.5% in May 2023. The largest contributor was food and beverage services, which grew by 1.4%. There was anecdotal evidence from the monthly business survey that suggested good weather and an increase in live events boosted turnover for business in June.

These increases were partially offset by falls in human health and social work activities, which fell by 0.8% following growth in May 2023 (2.0%), driven largely by a fall of 1.1% in human health activities. There were three days of industrial action by junior doctors in June 2023, compared with none in May 2023, while there was no industrial action by nurses in England in June, compared with two days in May.

NHS Test and Trace and COVID-19 vaccination programme activity, as described in our Measuring the economic output of COVID-19 testing, tracing and vaccinations: April 2020 to June 2021 methodology, fell by 57% in June 2023 after a rise of 20% in May 2023, but remains substantially lower than at its peak towards the end of 2021. A full record of the volume estimates of Test and Trace and vaccination programmes, along with their contribution to GDP growth, can be found in our accompanying dataset.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in June 2023, after a fall of 0.2% in May 2023. Looking at the broader picture, consumer-facing services grew by 0.8% in the three months to June 2023. Consumer-facing services were 8.2% below their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020) in June 2023, while all other services were 2.2% above (Figure 4).

The largest contribution to the growth in consumer-facing services in June 2023 came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 3.9% in June following a fall of 1.9% in May 2023.

The next largest contribution came from food and beverage services, which grew 1.4% in June 2023, with some businesses noting, on monthly business survey returns, that good weather was responsible for increased turnover.

Consumer-facing services were 8.2% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in June 2023, with 10 of 13 industries lower than February 2020 (Figure 5). Within consumer-facing services, the largest contributors to this lower level in June 2023, compared with February 2020, are buying and selling, renting and operating of owned or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which have seen output decrease by 14.9% and 8.2%, respectively. The largest positive contributor within consumer-facing services was food and beverage services, which has grown by 10.4% between February 2020 and June 2023.

Figure 5: Of 13 consumer-facing service industries, 10 remain below their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020) in June 2023

Monthly consumer-facing services index, February 2019 to June 2023, UK

Notes:

1. This figure uses condensed industry titles for presentation purposes, for full titles please see Industry Classification in Section 10: Measuring the data.

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More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: June 2023.

Production output grew by 1.8% in June 2023, following a fall of 0.6% in May 2023. This was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in June 2023 and the strongest growth seen since August 2020, when it grew 1.9%. Manufacturing output grew by 2.4% and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output in June 2023. This was the strongest manufacturing growth since November 2020, when it grew 2.5%. Overall, production output grew 0.7% in the three months to June 2023, compared with the three months to March 2023, with growth of 1.6% in manufacturing being the largest positive contributor to growth in production output in that period.

Manufacturing was the main contributor to the growth in production, growing by 2.4% in June 2023 after a fall of 0.1% in May 2023, revised up from a fall of 0.3% in the previous publication. Across manufacturing, businesses reported a recovery from reduced output in May because of the additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III. Additionally, as reported in our Producer Prices inflation, UK: June 2023 including services, April to June 2023 bulletin, we have seen input prices fall in June relieving some pressure on manufacturers.

The manufacturing sector saw growth in 11 of its 13 subsectors (Figure 7) with manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations the largest contributor to growth, growing 7.9% in June 2023. Notable growth was also seen in the manufacture of transport equipment, which grew 4.8% in June 2023. The largest contributor to this division is the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which grew 8.5% in June. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a 16.2% increase in car manufacturing compared with the same month a year ago.

Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products was the only manufacturing industry that saw negative growth in June 2023, falling by 4.3% after growth of 1.2% in May.

Mining and quarrying was the only production subsector to see decreased output in June 2023, falling by 2.1%, mainly caused by a fall of 3.1% in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply showed no growth in June after a fall of 3.0% in May (revised up from a 2.0% fall in our previous publication) and growth of 1.0% in April (revised up from 0.7% in our previous publication).

Water supply and sewerage grew by 2.0% in June 2023, with growth in all four industries: 2.3% in Sewerage; 1.7% in Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; 1.9% in Water collection, treatment and supply; and 2.1% in Remediation activities and other waste management services.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: June 2023.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased 1.6% in volume terms in June 2023; this came from increases in both new work (2.0%) and repair and maintenance (1.1%) on the month. 

At the sector level, six of the nine sectors saw a rise in June 2023, with the main contributors to the monthly increase seen in infrastructure new work and non-housing repair and maintenance, which increased 4.7% and 3.4%, respectively.

The growth in June follows three consecutive periods of negative growth in monthly construction output. Anecdotal evidence received from returns for the Monthly Business Survey for Construction and Allied Trades (MBS) suggested that warm weather may have increased productivity.  

Alongside the monthly increase, construction output rose by 0.3% in the three months to June 2023 compared with the three months to March 2023. This growth came solely from June 2023, with five of the nine sectors seeing increases in growth; the largest contributors being infrastructure new work, and non-housing repair and maintenance, which increased by 6.1% and 2.7%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates, along with new orders in the construction industry and construction output prices, can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2023, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2023.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey for Production and Services) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact of each theme.

A range of businesses across industries (mainly manufacturing and construction) cited the additional bank holiday, for the Coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May, as a reason for increased monthly output in June 2023. It is important to factor in this loss of a working day in May 2023, particularly when interpreting monthly movements between May and June 2023.

June 2023 also had exceptionally warm weather as detailed in the Met Office's June 2023 climate summary (PDF, 5.7MB). This report stated that the "provisional UK mean temperature for June was 15.8 °C, which is 2.5 °C above average, making it the warmest June in a series from 1884". The warm period in June 2023 was cited as a positive factor from businesses, most notably in the hospitality (accommodation, restaurants, and licensed premises), tourism (outdoor recreation activities) and construction sectors.

The industrial action in some sectors in June 2023 also had an impact on different industries to varying degrees. The health sector (junior doctors) was the main area of industrial action in June 2023, but also the rail network, education sector (some universities) and certain civil service departments all saw industrial action take place in June 2023.

This release gives data for June 2023 for the first time and incorporates revisions to the monthly data in April and May 2023, in line with our GDP first quarterly estimate bulletin release on 11 August 2023.

The next monthly GDP release on 13 September 2023 will publish July 2023 data for the first time and will not have any months open for revision in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Construction output in Great Britain: June 2023, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2023

• Index of Production, UK: June 2023.

• Index of Services, UK: June 2023. 

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons that these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

The coronavirus pandemic has brought many measurement challenges, as explained in Section 6: Practical Challenges of our Coronavirus and the effects on UK GDP article that have created more uncertainty around our three approaches. This has led to an initial divergence between the output and average estimate, which is then reflected in how we compare monthly and quarterly estimates of GDP. Further information is available in our Measuring monthly and quarterly UK gross domestic product during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic article.

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue dataset provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

Industry classification

The industry breakdown used for this analysis is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names followed by their corresponding shortened industry names used in Figure 5:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles -- Sales and repairs of motor vehicles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles -- Retail except motor vehicles

• Food and beverage service activities -- Food and beverage

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent -- Real estate activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities -- Travel and tourism activities

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities -- Sports, amusement and recreation

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel -- Households as employers of domestic personnel

Additional bank holiday in May 2023 for the Coronation of King Charles III 

There was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. While adjustments are made for regular calendar effects, there was no explicit adjustment for this ad hoc event. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

The latest comparisons of month on same month a year ago should be treated with caution given the impact of base effects on growth rates because of the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic throughout 2020 and 2021. Such comparisons and growth rates can be found in our accompanying dataset.