Index of Services, UK: May 2017

• Services output increased by 0.2% between April and May 2017.
• The largest contribution to the month-on-month growth came from business services and finance, which contributed 0.23 percentage points.
• In the 3 months to May 2017, services output increased by 0.4% compared with the 3 months ending February 2017, with all four main components increasing.
• Services output increased by 2.4% in May 2017 compared with May 2016, following growth of 2.1% in April 2017 compared with April 2016.

The monthly Index of Services (IoS) provides a timely indicator of growth in the output of the services industries and is the largest contributor to the output approach to the measurement of gross domestic product (GDP), accounting for 78.8% of UK GDP in 2013.

The IoS measures the UK output in: distribution, hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; and government and other services. These data are used to produce seasonally adjusted estimates of output at chained volume measures (removing the effect of inflation). Unless otherwise stated, all estimates included in this release are based on seasonally adjusted data.

Data relating to the retail industry are broadly comparable with Retail sales in Great Britain: June 2017, published on 20 July 2017.

This May 2017 release contains revisions from April 2017. This means that we have incorporated additional data since this period.

Revisions can be made for a variety of reasons, the most common include:

• late responses to surveys and administrative sources
• forecasts being replaced by actual data
• revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which are re-estimated every month and reviewed annually

This revisions period is consistent with the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

The UK Index of Services has been designated by the UK Statistics Authority as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

Table 1 shows data for the Index of Services (IoS) and each of the main components for May 2017.

Figure 1 shows the seasonally adjusted index time series for the IoS over the past decade; this shows continued services growth following the economic downturn. The monthly IoS series can be volatile and therefore we recommend that monthly growths are viewed in the context of the longer-term trend and 3-month on 3-month growth rates.

During May 2017, services output increased by 0.2% following a rise of 0.1% during April 2017.

Figure 2 shows the pattern of Index of Services (IoS) headline growth rates since January 2015 and Figure 3 shows the month-on-month contributions of each of the main IoS components.

Two of the four main components of the services industries increased in the most recent month compared with the previous month. In order of their contribution to growth:

• business services and finance increased by 0.6%, contributing 0.23 percentage points
• transport, storage and communication increased by 0.4%, contributing 0.06 percentage points

In contrast distribution hotels and restaurants decreased by 0.1%, contributing negative 0.02 percentage points. Government and other services was flat.

The main sector driving IoS growth is business services and finance, with employment activities increasing by 3.7%, contributing 0.05 percentage points. In addition, other professional, scientific and technical activities grew by 4.8%, contributing 0.04 percentage points, and accounting activities grew by 2.5%, contributing 0.03 percentage points to headline growth.

Motor trades were the largest contribution in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector, increasing by 2.7%, contributing 0.07 percentage points. This is the joint largest contribution to IoS. Further information on car registrations in May can be found on the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) website. Retail trade offset this and decreased by 1.1%, contributing negative 0.08 percentage points. Please see the Retail Sales – June 2017 release for more information.

Motion picture activities were the largest contribution in the transport, storage and communication sector, increasing by 6.2%, contributing 0.07 percentage points. This is the joint largest contribution to IoS. Further information on the high-grossing films in May can be found on the British Film Institute (BFI) website. Telecommunications partially offset some of this and decreased by 2.9%, contributing negative 0.06 percentage points.

With an Index of Services (IoS) weight of 7.8 parts per thousand, the motion pictures industry, or motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (UK Standard Industrial Classifications 2007 (SIC 2007)), covers:

• production of theatrical and non-theatrical motion pictures whether on film, video tape or disc for direct projection in theatres or for broadcasting on television
• supporting activities such as film editing, cutting, dubbing
• distribution of motion pictures and other film productions to other industries
• motion picture or other film productions projection
• buying and selling of motion picture or other film productions distribution rights is also included
• sound recording activities, that is production of original sound master recordings, releasing, promoting and distributing them, publishing of music as well as sound recording service activities in a studio or elsewhere.

Data for this industry is collected via the monthly business survey with the larger businesses within the sample more associated with television programme production, motion picture production and distribution, and projection as opposed to sound recording.

Figure 4 shows that the industry was not significantly impacted during the downturn between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2008 and Quarter 2 2009. By the latter half of 2011 the industry had passed its pre-downturn peak and has shown gradual positive growth. From the start of 2015 onwards the industry has shown accelerated growth.

Film Tax Relief was extended to 25% for films of all budget levels on 1 April 2015 and is part of the wider creative industry Corporation Tax Relief (for further information see the GOV.UK website). Figures published by HM Revenue and Customs, Creative Industries Statistics July 2017 show that the amount of tax relief paid has seen large increases from 2015 to 2016 onwards.

Figure 5 shows that services output increased by 0.4% in the 3 months ending May 2017 when compared with the 3 months ending February 2017.

All four main components of the services industries increased during the most recent 3 months to May 2017 compared with the previous 3 months to February 2017. In order of their contribution to growth:

• business services and finance increased by 0.4%, contributing 0.16 percentage points
• distribution, hotels and restaurants increased by 0.6%, contributing 0.11 percentage points
• government and other services increased by 0.2%, contributing 0.06 percentage points
• transport, storage and communication increased by 0.3%, contributing 0.04 percentage points

Industries contributing to the 0.4% rise in May were:

• motion picture activities, which increased by 9.4%, contributing 0.10 percentage points
• office administrative activities, which increased by 5.5%, contributing 0.09 percentage points
• food and beverage service activities, which increased by 2.4%, contributing 0.07 percentage points
• accounting activities, which increased by 4.8%, contributing 0.06 percentage points
• retail trade, which increased by 0.8%, contributing 0.06 percentage points

More detail on individual components can be found in the Index of Services publication tables dataset.

Figure 6 shows services output increased by 2.4% in May 2017 compared with May 2016, following growth of 2.1% in April 2017 compared with April 2016.

All four of the main components of the services industries increased in the most recent month compared with the same month last year. In order of their contribution to growth:

• business services and finance increased by 2.4%, contributing 0.96 percentage points
• distribution, hotels and restaurants increased by 3.5%, contributing 0.63 percentage points
• transport, storage and communication increased by 4.0%, contributing 0.54 percentage points
• government and other services increased by 1.1%, contributing 0.32 percentage points

Industries contributing to the 2.4% rise in May were:

• motion picture activities, which increased by 26.2%, contributing 0.24 percentage points
• wholesale trade, which increased by 5.1%, contributing 0.21 percentage points
• food and beverage service activities, which increased by 7.7%, contributing 0.21 percentage points

With a weight of 78.8% in 2013, the services industries are the largest industrial grouping in the output approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP).

Also published today (26 July 2017) is the Gross domestic product, preliminary estimate: Apr to June 2017 reporting that GDP in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. The services aggregate was the dominant contributor to the quarter-on-quarter percentage change in GDP, contributing 0.42 percentage points. Both production and construction contributed negative 0.06 percentage points and agriculture 0.00 percentage points to the headline figure.

Tables such as response rates and revisions, previously found in the background notes, can now be found in the main datasets.

Monthly economic commentary was published alongside this release, presenting new analysis on the latest economic data.

Methods and sources

The GDP(O) methods and sources pages provide more information on the data that underpin these statistics; of particular note is the GDP(O) source catalogue.

International comparisons

International comparison with the Index of Services is difficult, as most comparable economies don’t produce equivalent estimates. Eurostat turnover in services estimates are not comparable with the Index of Services (IoS), as they exclude the wholesale and retail trade; furthermore, most of the estimates are only available quarterly. The USA also produces services output estimates, but only on a quarterly basis, with a 4-month lag time. Japan has a direct equivalent of the IoS, but the estimates are not seasonally adjusted. The closest equivalent estimates are from Canada, which produces a monthly output estimate of GDP with a breakdown by industry (including an aggregate for services). There are also comparable quarterly estimates from Sweden and Ireland.

We welcome your feedback on this bulletin via our short survey.

The monthly Index of Services (IoS) was developed to provide a timely indicator of growth in the output of services industries, at constant prices for the UK. The IoS is an important component of monthly output (GDP(O)), representing about 78.8% of UK gross domestic product (GDP) as of 2013. The IoS shares the exact same industry coverage as the corresponding quarterly series within GDP(O).

The Index of Services datasets contain additional material, including:

• Monthly Business Survey (MBS) response rates
• publication tables
• revisions triangles
• lower-level time series data

The Index of Services Quality and Methodology Information document contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data
• uses and users of the data
• how the output was created
• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data