National population projections: 2022-based
Summary
National population projections (NPPs) provide an indication of the potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. A full NPP release using the latest available population data including census data and new assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration. Providing a range of variant projections. The base population is planned to be mid-2022. NPPs are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education, and pensions.
Publications
-
National population projections: 2022-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
-
UK population projection explorer
Use our projection tool to find out how changes in life expectancy, net migration, and fertility could affect the population over a long period.
Data
-
High migration variant - Scotland summary
High migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low life expectancy variant - Scotland summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - Great Britain summary
Principal projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Migration category variant, UK summary
Migration category variant for UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Replacement fertility variant - England summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
High migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High life expectancy variant - Scotland summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High life expectancy variant - Wales summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
No long-term mortality improvement variant - Scotland summary
No long-term improvement mortality variant for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - Wales summary
Principal projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zipped population projections data files, Wales
Open data for Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
High fertility variant - Wales summary
High fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low fertility variant - Wales summary
Low fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of international migration estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of net long-term international migration estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
High migration variant - Wales summary
High migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High population variant - UK summary
High population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low population variant - Scotland summary
Low population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low migration variant - England summary
Low migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Replacement fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - Scotland summary
Principal projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Young age structure variant - Scotland summary
Young age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low fertility variant - England summary
Low fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High population variant - Northern Ireland summary
High population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High migration variant - Great Britain summary
High migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low migration variant - Wales summary
Low migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zipped population projections data files, Northern Ireland
Open data for Northern Ireland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
High fertility variant - UK summary
High fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Old age structure variant - Wales summary
Old age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High population variant - Scotland summary
High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High life expectancy variant - England summary
High life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High migration variant - UK summary
High migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Old age structure variant - Scotland summary
Old age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High fertility variant - England summary
High fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Scotland summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low migration variant - Scotland summary
Low migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High life expectancy variant - UK summary
High life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of total fertility rate estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of total fertility rate (TFR) with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - England summary
Principal projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Young age structure variant - Wales summary
Young age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
-
Low migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
High fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High migration variant - England summary
High migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Old age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary
Old age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Old age structure variant - UK summary
Old age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zipped population projections data files, Great Britain
Open data for Great Britain principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
Zipped population projections data files, Scotland
Open data for Scotland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
Low migration variant - Great Britain summary
Low migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of life expectancy estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of period life expectancy at birth estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
Low life expectancy variant - UK summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
No long-term mortality improvement variant - UK summary
No long-term improvement mortality variant for UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low fertility variant - Scotland summary
Low fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High fertility variant - Scotland summary
High fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low population variant - UK summary
Low population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low life expectancy variant - Wales summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Young age structure variant - England summary
Young age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Replacement fertility variant - Wales summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Zipped population projections data files, England
Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
-
Low population variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of old age dependency ratio estimates and projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of old age dependency ratio (OADR) estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
Young age structure variant - UK summary
Young age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High population variant - Wales summary
High population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low migration variant - UK summary
Low migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low life expectancy variant - England summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low population variant - Wales summary
Low population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Replacement fertility variant - Scotland summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of deaths estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of deaths with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
Low population variant - England summary
Low population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of births estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of births with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
No long-term mortality improvement variant - England summary
No long-term improvement mortality variant for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Replacement fertility variant - UK summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High population variant - England summary
High population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Young age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary
Young age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Low fertility variant - UK summary
Low fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
No long-term mortality improvement variant - Wales summary
No long-term improvement mortality variant for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Migration category variant, England summary
Migration category variant for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Migration category variant - Scotland summary
Migration category variant for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Comparison of mid-year population estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries
Comparison of mid-year population estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.
-
No long-term mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland summary
No long-term improvement mortality variant for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
High life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Principal projection - Northern Ireland summary
Principal projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Migration category variant, Wales summary
Migration category variant for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
-
Old age structure variant - England summary
Old age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
Methodology
-
National population projections, variant projections: 2022-based
The variant projections, a range of scenarios with alternative demographic assumptions, used in the 2022-based national population projections.
-
National population projections, mortality assumptions: 2022-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce mortality assumptions in the UK 2022-based national population projections.
-
National population projections, fertility assumptions: 2022-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce fertility assumptions in the 2022-based national population projections.
-
National population projections quality and methodology information
Quality and methodology information for national population projections, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used and data uses and users.
-
National population projections, migration assumptions: 2022-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce migration assumptions in the 2022-based national population projections.
-
National population projections, background, methodology and assumption setting: 2022-based
Information on the data, methods and assumption setting process used to produce the 2022-based national population projections.
-
Comparing national population projections to estimates report
Methodology on the comparison of national population projections from 1971 to 2022 with population estimates, births, long-term international migration, and deaths, including measures of error.
Contact details
About the data
Accredited Official Statistics
These are accredited official statistics. They have been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and found to comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. This broadly means that the statistics:
- meet user needs
- are presented clearly and accessibly
- are produced using appropriate data and sound methods
- are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest