• Our official estimates have not changed and these are the ones we advise to be used, see Table 2a in the dataset accompanying our bulletin.

  • The table of daily incidence estimates are generated from using a modelled approach, which means they are subject to change as we state in our published bulletins; we therefore recommend using these to understand the trend, not for individual point in time estimation.

  • The modelled estimates published in October were supported by another ONS source and in particular the growth in the positivity rate during September and October. 

  • All our evidence, including positivity rates, which are still over 0.9%, show the pandemic was at a peak at the time of the Prime Minister's announcement on 31 October 2020 on restrictions.