UK Trade: December 2015

• UK trade shows import and export activity and is a main contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. All data are shown on a seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis, at current prices unless otherwise stated.

• The December 2015 UK trade release is the first opportunity to analyse 2015 as a whole. The UK’s annual trade deficit reached £34.7 billion in 2015; a widening of £0.3 billion from 2014. Over the same period, the goods deficit widened by £1.9 billion to £125.0 billion. The widening was partially offset by an increase in the services surplus, which rose by £1.5 billion to £90.3 billion.

• The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £2.7 billion in December 2015, a narrowing of £1.3 billion from November 2015. The narrowing is attributed to trade in goods where the deficit has narrowed from £11.5 billion in November 2015, to £9.9 billion in December 2015.

• Between November 2015 and December 2015, the trade in goods narrowing was mainly the result of a fall in the import of goods of £1.7 billion to £33.0 billion; mainly reflecting a fall in imports of unspecified goods, which decreased by £1.0 billion to £0.4 billion.

• In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £10.4 billion; widening by £1.8 billion from quarter 3 (July to September) 2015.

• Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the trade in goods deficit widened by £0.9 billion to £32.7 billion. This widening reflects a £0.5 billion fall in the exports of goods and a £0.4 billion rise in imports.

• Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the trade in services surplus narrowed by £0.9 billion to £22.4 billion.

Short guide to UK trade

UK Trade shows the extent of import and export activity and is an important contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK. Trade is measured through both imports and exports of goods and/or services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being the largest.

This monthly release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price. Figures are analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the UK Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

This bulletin focuses on trade in goods due to the coverage and comprehensiveness of the administrative data sources available for goods as it is easier to quantify and measure. Trade in services is more difficult to measure, and source data is provided mainly on a quarterly or annual basis principally from ITIS (International Trade in Services survey). Monthly estimates are derived using this quarterly data, therefore the data are less robust on a monthly basis compared with goods.

As more information becomes available on trade in services this bulletin will focus on the values, volumes and geographic breakdown on a 3 monthly cycle described below:

Our website

The UK trade guidance and methodology web pages are now live. These have been developed to provide detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics. These pages also contain an overview of how the data are used and a news page which is updated regularly. Any recent ad-hoc trade data provided will also be listed on this page.

Understanding UK trade

We make every effort to provide informative commentary on the data in this release. Where possible, the commentary draws on evidence from other sources of information to help explain possible reasons behind the observed changes. However, in some instances it can prove difficult to draw out detailed reasons for movements, consequently, it is not possible for all data movements to be fully explained.

Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, it is recommended to compare the latest 3 months against the preceding 3 months and the same 3 months of the previous year.

When examining the trade in goods data, oil and “erratics”, which are high value, low volume products, are removed from some analysis as they are extremely influential on trade in goods as a whole. Therefore we publish data inclusive and exclusive of these categories. We also provide a separate analysis of oil because it is subject to erratic price fluctuations and therefore volume data is provided in metric tonnes as well as value (£ million).

Strengths and weaknesses of the data

Strengths

Quality of trade in goods data

The quality of the source data for trade in goods is high in terms of the timeliness, comprehensiveness and coverage and this level of quality compares well internationally. The data are used across government, business and academia and feed into a number of other outputs and publications; including GDP and balance of payments. The Bank of England use the total figures to make policy decisions, whereas government departments such as the Foreign and Commonwealth Office are interested in the individual country detail.

We have frequent communication with our suppliers to discuss quality, including regular meetings, telephone conversations and email correspondence. Service level agreements are in place to define the level of quality expected in the data received and these are reviewed annually. Data suppliers have their own internal quality assurance processes to meet the quality standards outlined in the service level agreements and we work closely with them to understand these. Suppliers are required to advise us of any changes to the collection or processing of the data to ensure our expectations are still met.

When data is received by the trade team we conduct our own initial quality assurance. Further quality analysis is then conducted at several stages of processing; this is detailed in a process map and quality assurance plan. If there are any quality concerns we work closely with the supplier to address these.

We have regular discussions with users on the quality of our data and provide comprehensive explanations of the terms, methodology and processes we use. Eurostat is an important customer influence and helps improve the quality of our data through task force meetings and by producing quality guidelines.

Timeliness of publications

The UK Trade publication is very timely (generally 40 days after the period to which it refers), helping to inform policy and to assess UK economic performance.

Weaknesses

Quality and timeliness of trade in services data

Where trade in goods has one main data supplier, there are a large number of suppliers of trade in services data. Additionally, a number are voluntary, so it can be difficult to establish and maintain the same quality assurance processes and relationships with these businesses or suppliers.

Due to the collection methods and complexities of quantifying trade in services, data is less timely than trade in goods estimates. The data is processed quarterly, so monthly forecasts are made to provide a complete trade total.

Monthly volatility

Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, we recommend comparing the latest 3 months against the preceding 3 months and the same 3 months of the previous year, however we also recognise the importance to users of an early estimate of trade therefore we continue to produce a monthly estimate.

UK trade National Statistics suspension

Due to a series of errors during 2014, the UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade on 14 November 2014. The Authority's reassessment of UK Trade against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics has been completed. We are committed to meeting the requirements and regaining National Statistics status for UK Trade as soon as possible and will keep users informed of progress. We aim to publish a UK trade development plan in the near future; detailing planned improvements to the UK trade statistical compilation process and associated methodology.

One of the recommendations of the reassessment was to consult with users on the use of UK trade statistics. The results of this user engagement survey (414.5 Kb Word document) can be found on our website.

To provide feedback on the bulletin please contact us via email trade@ons.gov.uk.

Definitions and explanations

A glossary of terms is published in the UK Trade Glossary (124.5 Kb Pdf) and the UK Balance of Payments - The Pink Book, 2015.

Use of the data

UK trade is a main economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.

In addition, it is a major component of 2 other main economic indicators: UK gross domestic product (GDP) and the UK balance of payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, city analysts, academics, the media and international organisations.

Notes on tables

Rounding:

The sum of constituent items in tables does not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.

Symbols:

.. Not applicable

- Nil or less than half the final digit shown.

Annual analysis

The deficit on trade in goods and services in 2015 was £34.7 billion compared with a deficit of £34.4 billion in 2014. The trade position reflects exports minus imports; the widening of the deficit was attributed to a slight decrease in exports (0.2%) between 2014 and 2015. However there were offsetting movements between exports of goods and services and also between exports of goods to EU and Non-EU countries.

In 2015, total trade exports decreased by £1.0 billion to £512.4 billion. There was a £8.1 billion fall in exports of goods, which was partially offset by a £7.1 billion rise in exports of services. Total imports decreased by £0.7 billion to £547.2 billion over the same period; imports of goods fell by £6.2 billion and was almost entirely offset by a £5.5 billion increase in imports of services.

The deficit on trade in goods was at a record high of £125.0 billion in 2015; widening by £1.9 billion from 2014. This widening reflected a decrease in both exports (down £8.1 billion to £285.6 billion) and imports (down £6.2 billion to £410.7 billion).

Exports of goods to EU countries fell by £11.6 billion between 2014 and 2015, attributed to a fall in oil exports of £9.8 billion. Imports from the EU fell by £2.2 billion over the same period, the largest contributors were oil which fell by £2.4 billion, material manufactures which fell by £1.3 billion and chemicals which fell by £1.0 billion. These falls were partially offset by an increase in the import of cars, which rose by £2.8 billion.

Between 2014 and 2015 exports of goods to countries outside the EU increased by £3.5 billion, chemicals was up £6.1 billion and miscellaneous manufactures increased by £2.6 billion; specifically works of art which saw an increase of £1.3 billion and jewellery of £0.8 billion. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in oil exports which fell by £1.8 billion. Imports from countries outside the EU decreased by £4.0 billion; oil imports in particular fell by £11.3 billion. The decrease was partially offset by increases across the majority of other commodities. The rise in exports and fall in imports resulted in a £7.5 billion narrowing of the deficit with non-EU countries to £36.0 billion in 2015, the smallest annual deficit since 2005.

In 2015 there was a record surplus on trade in services of £90.3 billion. Between 2014 and 2015 exports of services increased by £7.1 billion (3.2%) to £226.8 billion largely attributed to an increase in financial services. Imports of services in 2015 increased £5.5 billion (4.2%) to £136.5 billion, with increases in travel and financial services.

Quarterly analysis

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the total trade deficit (goods and services) widened by £1.8 billion to £10.4 billion.

The deficit on trade in goods widened by £0.9 billion. Exports of goods fell by £0.5 billion, to £69.8 billion reflecting a £0.9 billion decrease in the export of chemicals and a £0.5 billion fall in oil exports, these decreases were offset by an increase in the export of aircraft of £0.9 billion, reaching a record high of £3.6 billion in quarter 4 (October to December) 2015.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, exports of goods to EU countries fell by £0.2 billion (0.5%) due to exports of oil which fell by £0.6 billion, this was offset by an increase in aircraft exports, which rose by £0.3 billion. Imports from the EU increased by £1.5 billion (2.7%), with increases in imports of chemicals (£0.5 billion), aircraft (£0.3 billion) and works of art (£0.2 billion). This resulted in a widening of the trade in goods deficit with EU countries to a record level of £23.2 billion in quarter 4 (October to December) 2015.

There was a trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries of £9.5 billion in quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, a narrowing of £0.8 billion from quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. Exports of goods to countries outside the EU fell by £0.3 billion (0.8%); there was a £0.9 billion decrease in the export of chemicals, offset by a £0.6 billion increase in the export of aircraft. Imports of goods from countries outside the EU fell by £1.1 billion (2.3%), this decrease was the result of a £1.3 billion decrease in unspecified goods, mainly nonmonetary gold.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, exports of services decreased by £0.5 billion to £56.9 billion, reflecting a forecasted fall in exports of other business services.

Monthly analysis

The deficit on trade in goods and services in December 2015 was £2.7 billion compared with a (revised) deficit of £4.0 billion in November 2015. The trade position reflects exports minus imports; the narrowing of the deficit was attributed to a decrease in imports between November 2015 and December 2015.

Between November 2015 and December 2015, exports decreased by £0.3 billion (0.8%) to £41.8 billion. This decrease comprised a £0.2 billion fall in the export of services and a £0.1 billion fall in the export of goods. Total imports decreased by £1.6 billion to £44.5 billion (3.6%) over the same period, all of this decrease was attributed to goods.

The deficit on trade in goods was £9.9 billion in December 2015; narrowing by £1.6 billion from November 2015. This narrowing reflected a decrease in imports (down £1.7 billion to £33.0 billion), mainly attributed to a £1.0 billion fall in imports of unspecified goods.

Between November 2015 and December 2015, exports of goods to countries outside the EU decreased by £0.1 billion. Imports from countries outside the EU fell by £1.2 billion; specifically unspecified goods, which fell by £1.0 billion. The fall in imports resulted in a £1.2 billion narrowing of the deficit with non-EU countries to £2.4 billion.

Imports from the EU fell by £0.4 billion between November 2015 and December 2015; there were £0.2 billion falls in both oil and car imports. Exports of goods to EU countries was broadly unchanged over the same period. These movements resulted in a trade in a goods deficit with EU countries of £7.6 billion in December 2015.

International comparisons

While total UK exports have grown at an average rate of 0.8% between 2012 and 2015, its performance over this period has been comparatively poor when compared to the pre-downturn and post-downturn periods. For example between 2005 to 2006 and 2010 to 2011, average annual growth of exports was 12.8% and 11.7% respectively. 2015 data suggest that UK exports have performed relatively better in comparison to 2014; exports fell by 0.2% in 2015, a 1.2 percentage point improvement compared to 2014. This improvement was largely driven by better performance in exports of goods; particularly finished manufactures, which made a 1.1 percentage point contribution to overall export growth. Semi-manufactures also made a positive contribution to the improvement of total exports of 1.0 percentage point, growing at the fastest rate seen since 2011 (4.0%).

Over the last 14 years (2000 to 2014), average export growth to China has been considerably higher than total export growth; however, UK exports to China are typically a lot more volatile. Since 2011 growth in both series has slowed. The slower growth in UK exports to China may reflect the easing in output growth and domestic growth in China, lowering the demand for UK goods and services.

As well as slowing growth in China in 2014, there has also been subdued growth amongst other UK leading markets. Germany made a positive contribution of 0.3 percentage points; however, positive contributions were offset by larger negative contribution from the US and France of 1.6 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. Figure 3 also shows the contributions to UK export growth in each of these countries shown has broadly been in the same direction.

This section of the statistical bulletin consists of the following parts:

Trade in goods

1. Value of UK trade in goods

2. Trade in goods – analysis by area

3. Trade in goods – geographical analysis

4. Volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics

5. Export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

6. Trade in oil

Trade in services

7. Trade in services analysis

Other information

8. Where to find information about UK trade statistics

9. Revisions to trade statistics

10. Accuracy of the statistics

11. Other quality information

12. Records sheet

Monthly commentary

In December 2015, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods was £9.9 billion, narrowing by £1.6 billion from November 2015.

Exports decreased by £0.1 billion (0.3%) to £23.1 billion in December 2015 from £23.2 billion in November 2015. In detail:

• oil fell by £0.2 billion (11.3%) to £1.5 billion

• chemicals fell by £0.2 billion (4.0%) to £3.9 billion

• these decreases were partially offset by an increase in the export of road vehicles, which rose by £0.2 billion (7.2%) to £2.7 billion

Imports decreased by £1.7 billion (4.8%) to £33.0 billion in December 2015 from £34.7 billion in November 2015. In detail:

• road vehicles fell by £0.3 billion (6.0%) to £4.2 billion

• oil fell by £0.2 billion (10.9%) to £1.9 billion

• other transport equipment fell by £0.1 billion (9.0%) to £1.1 billion

Quarterly commentary

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the deficit on trade in goods was £32.7 billion, widening by £0.9 billion from quarter 3 (July to September) 2015.

Exports decreased by £0.5 billion (0.7%) to £69.8 billion in quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 compared with £70.2 billion in quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. In detail:

• chemicals fell by £0.9 billion (7.0%) to £12.1 billion

• oil fell by £0.5 billion (8.9%) to £4.7 billion

• these decreases were partially offset by an increase in the export of aircraft, which rose by £0.8 billion (30.8%) to £3.6 billion

Imports increased by £0.4 billion (0.4%) to £102.5 billion in quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 compared with £102.1 billion in quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. In detail:

• machinery and transport equipment rose by £1.3 billion (3.6%) to £27.1 billion

• chemicals rose by £0.7 billion (5.4%) to £13.6 billion

• these increases were partially offset by a decrease in the import of fuels, which fell by £0.5 billion (4.9%) to £8.8 billion

At the main commodity level, the data are shown in Table 2.

Where to find data about UK trade in goods

The value of trade in goods figures are available in Table 1 and commodity figures are available in Tables 8, 9 and 10 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

In December 2015, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.4 billion to £7.6 billion. The deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £1.2 billion to £2.4 billion (Figure 6).

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries widened by £1.7 billion to £23.2 billion. Over the same period, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.8 billion to £9.5 billion.

EU analysis

Between November 2015 and December 2015, exports to the EU decreased by £14 million (0.1%) to £11.0 billion. This was attributed to a decrease in exports to Germany of £0.2 billion. This decrease was offset by increases in exports to the Irish Republic, the Netherlands and Spain of £0.1 billion each.

Between November 2015 and December 2015, imports from the EU decreased by £0.4 billion (2.2%) to £18.6 billion. This was attributed to decreases in imports from France of £0.3 billion and both Germany and Spain of £0.1 billion. These decreases were offset by increases in imports from both the Irish Republic and the Netherlands of £0.1 billion.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, exports to the EU decreased by £0.2 billion (0.5%) to £33.4 billion. This was attributed to decreases in exports to Belgium and Luxembourg (combined), Germany and Italy of £0.1 billion each.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, imports from the EU increased by £1.5 billion (2.7%) to £56.6 billion. This was attributed to increases in imports from France of £0.5 billion, from Germany of £0.4 billion and from the Irish Republic of £0.2 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 3.

Non-EU analysis

Between November 2015 and December 2015, exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.1 billion (0.5%) to £12.0 billion. This was attributed to decreases in exports to the USA of £0.5 billion. These decreases were offset by increases in exports to China, Malaysia, Mexico and Norway of £0.1 billion each.

Between November 2015 and December 2015, imports from non-EU countries decreased by £1.2 billion (8.0%) to £14.4 billion. This was attributed to decreases in imports from Canada of £0.7 billion, the USA of £0.3 billion and India, Japan, Norway, Qatar and Russia of £0.1 billion each. These decreases were offset by increases in imports from Saudi Arabia and Switzerland of £0.1 billion.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.3 billion (0.8%) to £36.4 billion. This was attributed to decreases in exports to the USA of £1.0 billion and both India and Russia of £0.2 billion. These decreases were offset by increases in exports to China of £0.5 billion, to both Saudi Arabia and Switzerland of £0.3 billion and Norway of £0.2 billion.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, imports from non-EU countries decreased by £1.1 billion (2.3%) to £45.9 billion. This was attributed to decreases in imports from both China and the USA of £0.4 billion and Canada of £0.3 billion. These decreases were offset by increases in imports from Norway of £0.3 billion and Russia of £0.2 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 4.

Where to find data about UK trade in goods – analysis by area

Trade in goods by area figures are available in Table 2 and value of trade in goods with selected EU and non-EU trading partner figures are available in Tables 11 and 12 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

Monthly analysis

The USA remains the UK’s top export partner with exports of £3.3 billion in December 2015, decreasing by £0.5 billion when compared with November 2015. Anecdotal evidence suggests this decrease was due to a fall in the export of oil.

Positive growth from both the Irish Republic and Netherlands has meant both countries have moved to 3rd and 4th position respectively. These increases meant that France dropped from 3rd position to 5th position.

Germany remains the UK’s top import partner with imports of £5.1 billion, decreasing by £0.1 billion when compared with November 2015.

Quarterly analysis

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the USA remained the UK’s top export partner with exports of £11.0 billion, decreasing by £1.0 billion when compared with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. Anecdotal evidence suggests this is due to a decrease in the exports of chemicals and cars.

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, Germany remained the UK’s top import partner with imports of £15.7 billion, increasing by £0.4 billion when compared with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015.

Annual analysis

The USA remained the UK’s top export partner in 2015 with exports of £47.5 billion, increasing by £10.1 billion compared with £37.4 billion in 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this increase was due to the export of chemicals, cars, whiskey, oil and paintings.

The Netherlands dropped from 3rd to 4th position in the UK’s top export markets, with exports of £17.3 billion, decreasing by £5.0 billion compared with £22.4 billion in 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this decrease was due to the export of oil.

Germany remained the UK’s top import partner in 2015 with imports of £62.2 billion, increasing by £1.3 billion compared with £60.8 billion in 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this increase was due to the import of cars and miscellaneous manufactures. The USA moved from 4th to 3rd position in the UK’s top import markets, with imports of £34.7 billion, increasing by £6.4 billion compared with £28.3 billion in 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this increase was due to the import of aircraft.

The Netherlands dropped from 3rd to 4th position in the UK’s top import markets, with imports of £31.3 billion, decreasing by £1.8 billion compared with £33.2 billion in 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this decrease was due to the import of oil. See table 14 of the publication tables.

Where to find data about UK trade in goods – geographical analysis

Trade in goods by area figures are available in Table 2 and value of trade in goods with selected EU and non-EU trading partner figures are available in Tables 11 and 12 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

Between November 2015 and December 2015, the volume of exports decreased by 0.2%:

• chemicals fell by 6.7%

Between November 2015 and December 2015, the volume of imports decreased by 3.5%:

• cars fell by 13.6%

• basic materials fell by 4.8%

• intermediate goods fell by 2.8%

• consumer goods other than cars fell by 2.6%

• chemicals fell by 1.8%

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the volume of exports decreased by 1.3% when compared with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015:

• chemicals fell by 7.6%

• capital goods fell by 1.7%

• intermediate goods fell by 1.6%

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the volume of imports decreased by 0.3% when with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 7.

Where to find data about volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics

The volume of total trade in goods, excluding oil and erratics figures are available in Table 3 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

In December 2015, compared with November 2015, export prices increased by 1.9% and import prices increased by 1.3%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices increased by 2.6% and import prices increased by 1.6%.

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, when compared with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015, export prices remained unchanged and import prices decreased by 1.0%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices increased by 0.8% and import prices decreased by 0.3%.

Where to find data about export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted)

The export and import prices for trade in goods (not seasonally adjusted) figures are available in Table 3 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

In December 2015, the balance of trade in oil was in deficit by £0.5 billion unchanged when compared with November 2015. Oil exports decreased by £0.2 billion to £1.5 billion and oil imports decreased by £0.2 billion to £1.9 billion.

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £2.0 billion, widening by £0.3 billion when compared with quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. Oil exports decreased by £0.5 billion to £4.7 billion and oil imports decreased by £0.1 billion to £6.8 billion.

In 2015, the deficit on trade in oil was £8.2 billion, narrowing by £2.0 billion from 2014. Exports fell by £11.6 billion to £21.2 billion, reflecting a £9.8 billion fall in exports to EU countries. Imports fell by £13.6 billion to £29.3 billion, which reflected a £11.3 billion fall in imports from countries outside the EU.

here to find data about trade in oil

The trade in oil figures are available in Tables 1 and 7 of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

In December 2015, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services was £7.2 billion.

Exports in December 2015 were estimated to have been £18.7 billion and imports £11.5 billion.

Information on trade in services is mainly obtained from quarterly surveys, in some cases underpinned by larger annual surveys. This means that the data for the latest months are uncertain.

Quarterly analysis

In quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, the surplus on trade in services was £22.4 billion.

Between quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, exports of services decreased by £0.5 billion to £56.9 billion, the main contributor to this decrease was other business services which fell by £0.7 billion. This decrease was offset by an increase in travel services of £0.2 billion. For the same period, imports of services increased by £0.4 billion to £34.5 billion, the main contributor to this increase was other business services with an increase of £1.1 billion. The increase was offset by decreases in financial services and travel services of £0.5 billion and £0.3 billion respectively.

Annual analysis

Between 2014 and 2015, the estimated surplus on trade in services rose by £1.5 billion to £90.3 billion. Exports were estimated to have been £226.8 billion and imports £136.5 billion.

Between 2014 and 2015, exports of services increased by £7.1 billion to £226.8 billion, the largest contributors to this increase were financial services and other business services which rose by £5.6 billion and £2.9 billion respectively. These increases were offset by decreases in insurance and pension services and construction services of £1.6 billion and £1.1 billion respectively. For the same period, imports of services increased by £5.5 billion to £136.5 billion, the main contributor to this increase were financial services and travel services with increases of £3.4 billion and £3.2 billion respectively.

A further breakdown of non-EU Countries can found in the quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 United Kingdom Economic Accounts.

Revisions

There are no revisions to trade in services.

Where to find data about trade in services

The trade in services figures are available in Table 1 CONT. of the excel version of the tables (378 Kb Excel sheet).

Other regularly published UK trade releases

Supplementary quarterly data analysed by product according to the UK trade in goods by classification of product by activity (CPA 2008) are also available.

The latest release on 18 December covered the period Quarter 3 (July to September) 2015 and the data is consistent with UK Trade, November 2015 and contained revisions back to 1998 following methodological changes across National Accounts. Following an internal review of our publications and a wider survey of users (414.5 Kb Word document) there is no longer a statistical bulletin associated with the release. Instead we have provided a longer-term commentary alongside the data tables.

The complete run of data in the tables of this statistical bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using our time series data website service. Users can download the complete statistical bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) publish Overseas Trade Statistics on the same day as we release the UK Trade data each month. These aggregate estimates will differ slightly from those that are published by us as part of the Balance of Payments (BoP), as the 2 sets of data are compiled to different sets of rules. The BoP publication shows a high level picture of UK trade in goods, whereas the OTS publication shows a detailed picture of the UK’s trade in goods by commodity and partner country.

Recently published reports on UK trade topics

The latest Economic Review published 03 February 2016 includes analysis of trade with EU and non-EU countries.

On 29 January 2016 annual International Trade in Services survey results for 2014 were published. This release gives information on the industry of the businesses engaged in trade in services.

Historic articles published on UK trade

On 30 October 2015 we published the annual Balance of Payments Pink Book 2015 which as well as containing more detailed information on trade also provided an overview of the trade deficit in relation to the current account deficit.

In our Economic Review published on 3 October 2015 there is further commentary on UK export performance.

On 1 October 2015, we published an article on the economic performance of the UK’s motor vehicle manufacturing industry.

On 26 June 2015, we published a short story on the importance of EU to UK trade and investment.

On 9 June 2015, we published a short story on the importance of China to the UK economy, including the value of the UK trade with China.

On 6 February 2015, we published an article on the Rotterdam effect and its potential impact on the UK trade in goods estimates.

On 23 January 2015, we published a short story exploring the reasons behind the UK trade deficit.

Published ad hoc data and analysis

Additional statistical data and analyses for UK Trade statistics that have not been included in our standard publications are available under the Economy section of the Published ad hoc data and analysis pages on our website.

Methodological articles

Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments - The Pink Book, 2015.

Trade in goods revisions

In this release, periods from January 2015 are open for revision.

The revisions to trade in goods from January 2015 reflect revised data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other data suppliers, revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, later survey data on trade prices and a re-assessment of seasonal factors.

Trade in services revisions

There are no revisions to trade in services.

The National accounts revision policy (41.6 Kb Pdf) can be found on our website.

Accuracy: Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of:

• late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud

• revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month

Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods.

Reliability: Revisions to data provide one indication of its reliability. Table 8 shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions that have been made to the data covering a 5-year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant.

UK trade re-assessment

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade on 14 November 2014. The Authority's re-assessment of UK trade against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics has been completed.

One of the recommendations of the re-assessment was to consult with users on the use of UK trade statistics. The results of this user engagement survey (414.5 Kb Word document) can be found on our website.

HMRC methodology change for gas and revisions to past years

HMRC Trade Statistics are amending the mechanism for the data source used in the compilation of Natural Gas traded with non-EU partners. We will implement these revisions in a phased approach. More details can be found on our website.

EMU enlargement

As of 1 January 2015, Lithuania joined the European Monetary Union (EMU). Therefore the EMU totals in this UK trade release include Lithuania.

EMU coverage

The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from October 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, Estonia from January 2011, Latvia from January 2014 and Lithuania from January 2015. Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for chained volume measures which are available on request may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Katherine Kent on +44 (0)1633 455829 if you are considering using them.

Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up to the end of 2008 on request.

Erratics

Non-monetary gold is now included in the erratics series; along with ships, aircraft, precious stones and silver. In compliance with the BPM6 changes, non-monetary gold which is held as a store of wealth is now recorded within trade in goods.

Deflation

It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.

Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures), which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin, differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then “chain-linked” to produce a continuous series.

The implied price deflators, derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin, because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2012) weighted.

Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution.

Interpreting the data

In months where quarterly and 3 monthly ending percentage changes for index data coincide, there may be small differences between the data for methodological reasons. Quarterly data are the indexed form of an underlying constant price (for volume indices) or consistent quantity (for price indices) series. 3 month ending data are the average of the index data in that period.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.

The UK trade record information for December 2015 (35.5 Kb Excel sheet) can be accessed on our website.