Conduct of the censuses across the UK: November 2020 progress update

This is the third progress report on the conduct of the 2021 Censuses in the UK as set out in the statement of agreement (PDF, 164KB) between the National Statistician and the Registrars General for Scotland and Northern Ireland. It shows the progress made since the last update in November 2019.

The Scottish Government announced on 17 July 2020 that to secure high-quality outputs, Scotland’s Census will be moved to 2022 because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. To reflect this change, an updated statement of agreement covering the conduct of the UK censuses has been published. Any future progress reports will be against this updated statement.

The 2021 Census outputs should constitute consistent, coherent and accessible statistics for the UK, individual countries and geographic areas within each country.

The 2021 Census outputs should constitute consistent, coherent and accessible statistics for the UK, individual countries and geographic areas within each country.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

Each of the UK census offices (the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)) have continued to use the valuable feedback generated by their 2021 Census Outputs Strategy consultations. This feedback is helping to shape the design and delivery of outputs that are coherent and accessible. All three offices have used a broadly consistent approach.

The ONS response and the NRS response to their respective consultations are available. NISRA are aiming to publish a response to their consultation prior to March 2021.

Future consultation, and active engagement with users up to and beyond the 2021 and 2022 censuses, will ensure each office is well informed of user requirements. The ONS plans to consult on the timing of output products in spring or summer of 2021 and then make an indicative release schedule available as part of their Census Outputs Prospectus in autumn or winter of 2021.

In Phase 1 of the 2021 censuses National Statistics accreditation process for the UK, the Office for Statistics Regulation recommended that the census offices should consider how best to engage with users and stakeholders of UK census data and statistics users and co-ordinate activities as appropriate. The UK census offices have since introduced the UK Census Data Working Group, which was set up in early 2020 to provide a platform for the three offices to work together to better understand the requirements of UK-level data users in terms of 2021 Census outputs.

Following the decision to move Scotland’s Census to 2022, NRS, the ONS and NISRA are working closely to manage the dissemination of UK-wide census results where feasible. The census offices will be increasing engagement with UK data users and explore options for meeting their needs through the new UK Census Data User Working Group.

NRS began stakeholder events in November 2020 to collect user feedback on plans for census outputs, following the move of Scotland’s Census to 2022.

Each census office is continuing to develop approaches for users to create their own data products, which have statistical disclosure control (SDC) applied to maintain the confidentiality of respondents. The SDC methodological approach has been harmonised and signed-off at the highest level. The census offices will be working together to co-ordinate the details of the methodologies where practicable to do so.

On behalf of the census offices, the ONS commissioned an exploratory piece of work with the UK Data Service to understand the challenges of bringing UK data together. The results from this are being reviewed and being used to develop plans for designing an approach for users to have access to UK harmonised census data from a single point of access.

Common definitions and classifications

Common definitions and classifications, typically based on international standards, should be agreed, used and published (this includes a common population base).

Progress as at 1 November 2020

For questions and topics that are comparable across the UK, the census offices will agree a set of common definitions and classifications to use. Where possible, these definitions and classifications will be based on international standards. This will ensure that the UK meets its international obligations for producing census statistics.

Both NISRA and the ONS have published 2021 Census population and residential address definitions related to their output and enumeration bases (ONS definitions and NISRA definitions). NRS have also published some definitions related to their population base.

The census offices worked together to ensure the definitions provided consistency in the enumeration bases across the UK where possible, considering the differences in respondents’ needs and questions asked by the individual census offices. For example, the definition of a “household” and a “householder” remain unchanged and harmonised across the UK.

In January 2020, the ONS chaired workshops with representatives from the ONS, NRS, NISRA, the Welsh Government and Government Statistical Service harmonisation teams to begin assessing the harmonisation of output definitions. These workshops were successful in starting this assessment, and the census offices have since continued to liaise to agree common set of definitions.

The ONS are planning to co-ordinate work in early 2021 to assess the harmonisation of classifications. Specific census topic groups have ensured the census offices worked closely throughout the development of their classifications and that they are based on international standards where possible.

Common topics and questions

Common topics and questions should be agreed wherever possible, with the intention of making available consistent census outputs across the UK.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

The 2019 Census Rehearsal, while not designed primarily to test questions, was used by each of the census offices to test near final question designs. NRS, the ONS and NISRA shared their findings to continue work towards ensuring questions are directly comparable where possible.

Along with continued stakeholder engagement, this contributed to each of the census offices finalising the design of their 2021 Census question set.

In England and Wales, the Census Regulations came into force on 23 June 2020 in England and 26 June 2020 in Wales, having been laid before the UK Parliament and the Welsh Parliament respectively. They set out the comprehensive arrangements that will be made to carry out the census, including the wording of the questions.

The Census Regulations are available to view online:

• Census (England) Regulations 2020
• Census (Wales) Regulations 2020 and Rheoliadau'r Cyfrifiad (Cymru) 2020

The Census Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2020 came into operation on 17 July 2020. The household questionnaire is available to view on the NISRA website.

In Scotland, the final question set was included in the Census (Scotland) Regulations 2020, which came into force on 16 June 2020.

The only change to Scotland’s census questions following the move to 2022 will be where the census date is referenced. NRS will not be making any other changes to the questions asked as a result of the changed date, meaning that topics and questions will still be agreed wherever possible.

The ONS led COVID-19 contingency work to identify whether additional guidance was needed in the electronic questionnaire to account for the societal change brought on by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This resulted in additional guidance on the electronic questionnaire to help respondents interpret the questions in different scenarios, for example, on the place of work and travel to work questions. NISRA reviewed this work and applied the recommendations applicable to their form.

Census date

The three censuses should be carried out with reference to the same date in 2021.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

The Census Order for England and Wales, which sets the date of the census, was made (became law) at the Privy Council meeting on 20 May 2020. This followed debates in both Houses of Parliament in May 2020.

The necessary legislation to conduct a census in Northern Ireland, and set a date (21 march 2021) , was passed by the Northern Ireland Assembly in summer 2020.

Scottish Government announced on 17 July 2020 that to secure high-quality outputs, Scotland’s Census will be moved to 2022 because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The draft Census (Scotland) Amendment Order 2020 was laid in at the Scottish Parliament on 17 September 2020 and came into force on 17 December 2020. This changes the date of Scotland’s Census to 20 March 2022.

The Census (Scotland) Amendment Regulations was laid on 21 December 2020 to amend the Census (Scotland) Regulations 2020 to reflect the new date for Scotland’s Census.

Methodologies and statistical procedures

The statistical procedures applied to the census data, such as methodologies for statistical disclosure control and estimation should be evaluated, tested and agreed in advance of the census, and co-ordinated across the UK.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

Development of statistical methods for the censuses (including statistical disclosure control (SDC), edit and imputation (E&I), coverage assessment and coverage adjustment) is progressing. Each census office participates in UK-wide working groups associated with the main data processing areas. These groups have continued to facilitate information sharing, including lessons learned from the 2019 Census Rehearsals, and encourage harmonisation of methods where appropriate.

The ONS published their end-to-end statistical design for Census 2021 to ensure census results are of high quality and fit for purpose.

In terms of processing, the census offices and Welsh Government attend a quarterly working group to manage relationships between the 2021 Census Data Processing programmes of work across the UK. This group identifies potential areas of joint working and documents synergies and differences in the way the data are processed.

The ONS, NRS and NISRA are broadly harmonised on the use of targeted record swapping and the cell-key method for SDC. There are subtle differences between the countries on some of the details within the approach, which have been reviewed and accepted as not critical for harmonisation.

The SDC methods received approval from the UK Census Committee (the most senior governance for the UK censuses and chaired by the National Statistician) following comprehensive external assurance from the UK Statistics Authority Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP).

Work on implementation of the Edit and Imputation (E&I) strategy is continuing, supported by a UK-wide working group and collaboration on testing of specialist software that will underpin E&I in each census office. While details of the implementation may differ between administrations, because of regional differences in census questionnaires and population characteristics, a consistent overall approach to the E&I of data will be implemented across the UK.

In regard to coverage assessment and adjustment, each office contributes to the Estimation and Adjustment Working Group. This will ensure each census office’s approach for assessing and adjusting the data for under coverage will have similar outcomes.

The ONS published an initial proposal on the approach to quality assuring the census data in January 2020 and tested a set of checks and tools as part of the census rehearsal. The approach is being further developed in the light of experience from the rehearsal and comments from the local authority quality assurance working group and other users

NRS shared its Statistical Quality Assurance Strategy with its main user group and published it in November 2019.

Each census office contributes to the UK Quality Assurance Harmonisation Group. This has been set up to help ensure approaches to this aspect of census work are as similar as possible.

Sharing skills and experiences

Recognising their common requirements, the census offices will share skills and experiences and endeavour to exploit economies of scale wherever possible.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

The memorandum of understanding between the ONS and NISRA facilitated strong and effective working relationships in relation to our respective 2019 census rehearsals. It continues to do so as we work towards the 2021 and 2022 censuses.

We have continued to build on the shared services we developed for the rehearsal (for example, questionnaire management, contact centre and a field work management tool) in readiness for census operations.

Memorandums of understanding between the ONS and NRS have ensured we continue to work together effectively. This has included sharing lessons learned and findings from research in areas such as question and questionnaire design. We have also shared requirements for procurements such as the contact centre. Our joint Field Operations Group met regularly throughout the 2019 Rehearsal to share operational designs and best practice.

The ONS works closely with the Welsh Government on all aspects of census planning in Wales, including on matters relevant to the Welsh language. This includes, but is not limited to:

• Welsh language questionnaires
• online help
• community engagement
• recruitment and publicity
• media campaigns

A monthly working group has been established with representatives from all the UK and Ireland operational authorities (Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England). The aim of the Cross-Authority Working Group (CAWG) is to ensure a controlled approach to managing crisis and major incidents that affect (or have the potential to affect) our respective authorities, is developed in time for Census 2021. This includes an out-of-hours emergency process, which will be in place for the duration of Census 2021 operational period.

In addition, we are developing a communication mechanism to keep others informed during routine operations, sharing early warnings of problems and for general sharing of learnings, which will be in place for the duration of Census 2021 operational period. NRS will be invited to observe the ONS census operations in 2021 to gain practical experience of processes and governance in advance of their operations. This will allow opportunities for a harmonised approach.

The ONS, NISRA and NRS are all part of the International Census Forum (ICF). A number of ICF communities of practice meet regularly to share experiences and lessons learnt across common areas of interest, including operational risk and contingency planning, testing, outputs, field operations and communication.

Use of administrative data

The census offices will work together to exploit, and make greater use of, administrative data sources.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

The harmonisation of the use of administrative data across the UK censuses is discussed at the UK Harmonisation Working Group and was the subject of specially commissioned papers to the UK Census Committee in December 2019 and July 2020.

Some sources differ slightly, as do the methods they can be applied within. The census offices work together closely to consider appropriate uses of admin data through the harmonised design, and there are commonalities across the proposed uses. For instance, administrative sources are used in common to improve the currency of the address frame and efficiency of the collection operation and used in quality assuring the census estimates.

ONS have outlined how they plan to make greater use of administrative sources in their end-to-end statistical design for Census 2021.

NISRA is progressing work on several important areas where administrative data have the potential to enhance their 2021 Census. The address register that will underpin the census enumeration is being enhanced with additional intelligence from administrative sources to provide greater certainty around the occupancy status of addresses. The statistical person database, providing basic demographic information based on linked administrative sources, will provide a reliable dataset to support cleansing of raw census data and quality assurance activities.

NRS have used administrative data to quality assure the Census Rehearsal and plan to publish their findings. In addition to this, a stakeholder consultation is planned for spring 2021 to discuss these findings and other administrative data projects.

We know from previous census experience both here and abroad, and from the coronavirus pandemic, that we need to be prepared for the unexpected. Across the offices we are developing our coverage strategies to take account of emerging issues. These strategies are likely to make greater use of administrative data, and the offices are working together to identify commonalities within the contexts of their designs.

Each census office is part of the four nations Administrative Data Research Group. This group meets twice a year to share information and best practice on effectively integrating administrative data in the census process.

Publicity campaigns

The census offices will endeavour to ensure that the publicity campaigns for each census complement each other.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

The census communications and marketing teams are working closely together, sharing planned marketing and communications activity and feedback. The offices meet at least monthly to share information on planned campaigns and common areas of reputational risk.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is working with specialist communications agencies to develop the census campaign across a range of channels to ensure it effectively reaches all householders in England and Wales.

National Records of Scotland (NRS) is working with a contracted agency and Scottish Government marketing to prepare for an advertising and marketing campaign ahead of and during the census in March 2022. NRS are also working with the ONS to ensure that there is wide public awareness, particularly in the border area, that the March 2021 census is for England and Wales only.

The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) is working with a contracted agency in Northern Ireland to co-ordinate and deliver the publicity and advertising campaign for the 2021 Census. The agency is adapting marketing and advertising materials from the campaign being run by the ONS in England and Wales, and adapting these to be suitable for use in Northern Ireland. A degree of consistency (for example, branding, straplines) will be adopted for the Census campaign across the three census offices to maximise effectiveness of UK-level advertising.

UK harmonisation

To promote UK harmonisation, every effort will be made to reach agreement through the cross-working mechanisms of the three census offices and any differences of opinion will be discussed and resolved at the UK Census Committee.

Progress as at 1 November 2020

Discussions between the census office are held across work areas and at all levels. There are many working groups focused on specific areas, from question design, through collection to outputs and dissemination. These groups share information and knowledge to help innovate and harmonise where feasible.

The UK Harmonisation Working Group (UKHWG) has a more strategic oversight of the end-to-end census and continues to meet regularly with the aim of maximising harmonisation across the UK. Any decisions that require agreement of the National Statistician and Registrars General and any issues that the group are unable to resolve are escalated to the UK Census Committee (UKCC) for resolution.

Section 5 outlines the name, purpose and membership of all the working groups being used to share information across the offices and to promote UK harmonisation.

In terms of hierarchy, the UK Census Committee (UKCC) is fed into by the UK Harmonised Working Group (UKHWG) and UK Population and Census Steering Group (UKPCSG).

Name, purpose and membership of the census working groups

UK Census Committee

Decision-making body with responsibility for harmonisation of end-to-end Census activities across the UK.

Membership:

• National Statistician (Chair)
• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• UK Statistics Authority

UK Harmonisation Working Group

Manages relationships between Census 2021 programmes of work across the UK, identifying potential areas of joint working and manages risks to harmonisation of UK outputs. Reports to UKCC for decisions requiring sign-off.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• NHS Research Scotland

Census 2021 Outputs and Dissemination Harmonisation Working Group

Working level group discussing outputs harmonisation, which shares research, progress and resources relating to outputs products and statistical disclosure control.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)

Census 2021 Microdata Working Group

Working level group discussing outputs harmonisation, which shares research, progress and resources relating to Microdata products.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• academic users
• commercial users
• local government users

UK Data – User Group

To provide a forum for sharing information and feedback between the UK Census offices and UK census data users. This is to inform development of a dissemination approach that maximises the benefit that can be gained from providing UK census outputs.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• UK Census data users

Topic groups

To consider requirements from census for the topic, input into output design and prepare for delivery of analysis of census data.

Membership covers varies groups such as:

• demography
• education
• EILR
• health and disability
• social care
• housing
• labour market
• migration
• SOGI
• travel to work and subnational analysis
• veterans

Ethnic Group Assurance Panel

To gather stakeholder’s views on the development of the ethnic group question for the 2021 Census.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
• Department for Education
• Equality and Human Rights Commission
• Greater London Authority
• Local Government Association
• London School of Economics and Political Science
• Ministry of Justice
• NHS Digital
• Race Disparity Unit, Cabinet Office
• University of Kent
• University of Manchester

Religion Assurance Panel

To gather stakeholder’s input on the harmonisation of religion questions across the Government Statistical Service (GSS) and development of an integrated data approach to religion data, including support for the 2021 Census.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS)
• Department for Work and Pensions
• Equality and Human Rights Commission
• Greater London Authority
• Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
• Ministry of Justice
• NHS Digital
• Religion Academic

UK Data working group

Working level group taking forward Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) recommendations from the National Statistics Accreditation process where the focus is at a UK level.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)

UK Statistical Quality Working Group

Working level group to maximise our harmonisation in approach to the statistical quality assurance of the 2021 and 2022 Censuses.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)

Data Processing Harmonisation working group

Working level group that identifies and documents potential areas of joint working and differences in the way the data are processed.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)

Edit and Imputation Working Group

Working level group discussing outputs harmonisation which shares research, progress and resource relating to Edit and Imputation.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• University of Southampton

UK Product Working Group

Working level group discussing the question development work and testing, results and rehearsal findings, to help develop harmonised questions and questionnaires.

Membership:

Office for National Statistics (ONS) National Records of Scotland (NRS) Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)

UK Addressing Working Group

Working level group discussing and sharing best practice around the development of the address registers to support the 2021 Census operation across the UK census offices.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)

UK and Ireland Geography Harmonisation Working Group

Working level group discussing geography information relating to initiatives, policies, standards and census planning and dissemination.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• Central Statistics Office Ireland (CSO Ireland)

International Census Forum

To share and discuss latest research and other international practices and how they tackle issues and potential issues including methods, communications and privacy.

Membership:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)
• Welsh Government (WG)
• Australian Bureau of Statistics
• Central Statistics Office Ireland
• Statistics Canada
• Statistics New Zealand
• US Census Bureau