Our population is changing rapidly and the need to understand these changes will continue. Improvements in technology and in government data sources also offer new opportunities.
The Beyond 2011 programme was established in April 2011 to assess the different possible approaches through a programme of consultation and research to producing population and housing statistics in the future. This work culminated in March 2014 with a recommendation from the National Statistician to the government for the future provision of population statistics.Back to table of contents
The Beyond 2011 programme assessed the different possible approaches to producing population and housing statistics in future. Following the government's recommendation, the vision for the programme was to make the best use of all available population data to help shape tomorrow, and the role of the Census Transformation Programme is taking forward the implementation of this vision into the next phase through three major strands of concurrent work.
Strand 1 is looking at how to run the 2021 Census data collection operation and its coverage survey. This includes:
the address register
the field force
online and paper data collection
enumeration of communal establishments
Strand 2 is dealing with how we integrate census and administrative and survey data to provide and disseminate census outputs.
Strand 3 is looking further ahead, addressing how we produce population statistics beyond the 2021 Census.Back to table of contents
Our research resulted in two possible approaches to taking the census in future. They are to take a census:
once a decade, like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online
using existing government data and compulsory annual surveys
Both methods would provide annual statistics about the size of the population, nationally and for local authorities. A census using existing data and surveys would provide statistics about the characteristics of the population every year, while an online census would provide more detailed statistics once a decade.
We put these options out to public consultation in September 2013.Back to table of contents
The two approaches on which we consulted bring different advantages and disadvantages, and it was clear that users’ views on these would differ. It is important that the Office for National Statistics’s (ONS) recommendation is founded on good evidence, so the consultation asked for views on what really matters. The public consultation ran for 12 weeks from 23 September to 13 December 2013.Back to table of contents
We had more than 700 submissions totalling almost 1,500 pages of detailed comments and analysis. These came from sectors such as central government, local authorities, public bodies, commercial organisations, charities, health trusts, academia, genealogists and private individuals. These included 270 responses from organisations, with the remainder from private individuals.Back to table of contents
While respondents’ views varied, there were some consistent key messages. In particular:
there was continuing demand from government, local authorities, public bodies, business, the voluntary sector and individual citizens for detailed information about small areas and small populations offered by the decennial census, whether online or paper-based
there was a strong concern that the proposed use of an annual survey of 4% of households (to support the use of existing administrative data) would not meet these needs, nor deliver the required small area and small population statistics offered by the decennial census
the more frequent statistics that could be provided between censuses by the use of administrative data and annual surveys would be welcomed, but not at the expense of the detailed statistics
whilst the methods using administrative data and surveys show considerable potential, there was concern that these were not yet mature enough to replace the decennial census
many respondents proposed a hybrid approach, making the best of both approaches, with an online census in 2021 enhanced by administrative data and household surveys
On 27 March 2014, the National Statistician’s recommendation for the future provision of population statistics and the next census was:
an online census of all households and communal establishments in England and Wales in 2021 as a modern successor to the traditional, paper-based 10-yearly census – ONS recognises that special care would need to be taken to support those who are unable to complete the census online
increased use of administrative data and surveys in order to enhance the statistics from the 2021 Census and improve annual statistics between censuses
This would make the best use of all available data to provide the population statistics that England and Wales require and offer a springboard to the greater use of administrative data and annual surveys in the future.
Further research will be carried out over the coming months and years to determine the most appropriate blend of methods and data sources.
However, it is clear that the future development of the administrative data use approach depends on public consent as expressed through Parliament. Data-sharing legislation would be required to maximise the benefits of this approach.Back to table of contents
The government's response, made on 18 July 2014, is on the UK Statistics Authority website.Back to table of contents
An online census in 2021 will provide quality that is comparable to the 2011 Census results. Using administrative data has the potential to further enhance these census results.
This is why many of the data users we consulted proposed having a blend of these two approaches for 2021.Back to table of contents
Census approaches using administrative data are becoming more common. Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Israel and Germany have moved to systems based primarily on administrative data.
Other countries, such as the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, continue to use more traditional census approaches.Back to table of contents
We continue our research programme, and it is now for Parliament to decide whether the 2021 Census for England and Wales should go ahead and in what form.Back to table of contents
Internet access, via computers, tablets and mobile devices, is increasing all the time. More than 80% of households in the UK say they use the internet daily already.
While it is difficult to guess what levels of internet access will be in 2021, we recognise there will be people who will need help in responding to the 2021 Census.
We will make sure that everyone who asks for help in completing a census online will get it in the future, just as they have in the past.
As with previous censuses, there will be a team of field staff to help. We will be working on the details once the government and Parliament have made their decision about our recommendation and letting people know in good time about help available to them.Back to table of contents
These are data that people have already provided to government, for example, in the course of accessing public services. Some of these data could be reused by ONS to produce statistics about the population.
ONS has been using administrative data for many years. For example, annual births and deaths statistics are used, as well as NHS patient registrations, to roll forward the population estimates between censuses.Back to table of contents
Sources currently being researched include those held by the Department of Health, the Department for Work and Pensions, HM Revenue and Customs, the Department for Education and the Higher Education Statistics Agency. A full list of the data we are currently using in our research can be found in Annex C of our publication: Beyond 2011: Safeguarding Data for Research: Our Policy, July 2013.Back to table of contents
ONS has an excellent track record of keeping people’s data safe and secure.
Our interest is in the production of population statistics and in the picture of society that gives us. We are not concerned with details of individual people.
The Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 makes it a criminal offence for anyone to disclose personal information unlawfully, punishable by up to two years in prison.Back to table of contents
We will not release personal data to anyone else. We fully recognise the need to ensure privacy and confidentiality when using data – as we have always done with the census. This is one of our top priorities.Back to table of contents
Existing primary legislation allows a census to take place, but does not require a census.
As with the 2011 Census, an online census in 2021 would require Parliament to agree specific secondary legislation, setting out the census date and the questions to be asked, for example.
A census method based on administrative data and surveys would require Parliament to agree new primary legislation, to enable easier data access for ONS and to make it a legal requirement for households to respond to any new surveys.
However, to maximise the benefits of the National Statistician’s recommended approach, data-sharing legislation would be required. It is for government and Parliament to decide whether or not this is appropriate.Back to table of contents
If there is a 2021 Census conducted mainly online, all census responses will be archived for future generations.
In the 2011 Census we turned every online response into the same format as the paper questionnaire, which we then imaged and archived. We would do the same for the 2021 Census and will do further research to see how new technology develops.Back to table of contents
Scotland and Northern Ireland are carrying out their own reviews, and we will work together with the devolved administrations to continue providing population statistics across the UK in line with European Union and international requirements for statistical outputs.Back to table of contents