Employment and the economy

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Date: October 2025

This research links health, employment and earnings data to understand how chronic conditions, medical treatments and hospital use affect people's ability to work.

Using an Office for National Statistics (ONS) Trusted Research Environment, analysts combine HM Revenue and Customs Pay As You Earn (HMRC PAYE) records with NHS electronic health records and Labour Force Survey responses to assess how major conditions and treatments influence labour market participation. Early results have already informed government fiscal decisions, including evidence on the impact of bariatric surgery and NHS talking therapies. The programme is expanding to examine additional conditions, multimorbidity and treatment waiting times, helping to shape future health and economic policy.

Read the full Exploring how personal health affects economic activity case study on the Government Analysis Function website.

Date: October 2025

This research used high‑frequency linked business data to understand how UK firms responded to the energy price shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

By adapting the Business Insights and Conditions Survey into a longitudinal dataset and linking it with the Longitudinal Business Database and Annual Purchases Survey, the study captured how firms adjusted prices, investment, cash reserves and operations in near real time. The findings revealed substantial variation across sectors and firm sizes, with smaller firms reacting quickly, while larger firms acted as "shock absorbers". The work provides a blueprint for real‑time economic policy evaluation and supports government strategies for clean growth and resilience during economic crises.

Read the full How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time? case study on the Administrative Data Research UK (ADR UK) website.

Date: April 2026

Research using data accessed via the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Secure Research Service examined how UK firms supply services to overseas markets and how this changed following the 2016 Brexit referendum. Using linked firm‑level data on services trade, foreign affiliates and business characteristics, the study focused on how UK firms serving EU markets adapted to expected new barriers to cross‑border services trade.

The research found that after the referendum UK firms increasingly shifted from exporting services directly from the UK to supplying them through affiliates located in EU countries. This helped firms maintain access to EU clients and protect overall service exports, particularly in sectors such as ICT, advertising, engineering and professional services. However, the shift was associated with lower domestic employment and sales, as activity moved from the UK to EU‑based operations. Medium‑sized and more productive firms were the most likely to change how they supplied services.

The findings provide evidence that firms can substitute between different ways of supplying services when trade barriers rise, but that this can come at a cost to domestic jobs. The research contributes policy‑relevant insights to debates on services trade, investment and export resilience, and supports ongoing ONS work to improve understanding of modes of supply.

Data used 

Office for National Statistics, released 19 March 2025, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Annual International Trade in Services – UK

Office for National Statistics, released 29 March 2021, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Annual Foreign Direct Investment Survey – UK

Office for National Statistics, released 19 March 2024, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Annual Business Survey – GB

Read the full case study at: Should we stay or should we go? Firms' decisions on how to supply services after Brexit – ADR UK.

Date: April 2026 

A team at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) set out to investigate the reasons why firms that participate in international markets are more productive. 

Using secure business data 

The team used an innovative dataset that combines administrative data on trade in goods with survey data on firm labour productivity, available from the ONS Secure Research Service. The team extended this dataset to include trade in services and updated trade in goods information between 2017 and 2022. The new data, covering the 2005 to 2022 period, allowed them to build a comprehensive picture of British traders. 

The team found that British firms that take part in international trade – by exporting or importing goods or services – are much more productive than firms that operate only domestically. 

Between 2005 and 2022, trading firms produced around 35% more output per worker than non‑traders, even after accounting for differences in industry, firm size, age, and ownership. Firms that both export and import are the most productive of all, showing productivity levels more than 50% higher than non‑traders. 

However, most of this productivity gap exists before firms start trading. Firms that go on to export are already far more productive than firms that never export – about 59% more productive even before their first export. This shows that trade participation is largely driven by self‑selection, where stronger, better‑run firms are the ones most likely to enter international markets.  

The research found clear evidence that exporting also causes productivity to rise. Starting to export goods leads to an average 11.9% increase in labour productivity in the first year, relative to similar firms that have not yet started exporting. These gains are mainly concentrated among larger exporters and firms that export higher values, rather than among firms that are very dependent on exports for their turnover. Investment in capital and ICT rises several years after exporting begins, pointing to longer‑term learning and upgrading effects. 

Overall, the results suggest that while trade policy alone cannot transform low‑productivity firms, reducing barriers to trade and supporting firms that are already capable of exporting can still deliver meaningful productivity gains. 

Aggregated statistics on trade and productivity were published on the ONS website and the work was presented at an ESCoE conference, where it was discussed by the Bank of England, the Resolution Foundation and academics. 

Read the full discussion paper.

Date: May 2026

Research using data accessed via the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Secure Research Service examined how UK households responded to rising import competition during the 2000s, focusing on working-age individuals and how trade pressures affected labour supply and household decisions.

Drawing on the ONS Longitudinal Study, linked to international trade data and business records, the research found that trade shocks led to uneven responses within households. Older men in industries exposed to import competition were more likely to delay retirement or move into self-employment. Men also increased their labour supply when their partners were affected by trade shocks. In contrast, women showed little change in employment behaviour in similar situations. This highlights gender differences in how households adapt to economic shocks and suggests unequal access to flexible work or re-employment opportunities.

The findings help improve understanding of how households respond to structural economic change. They have informed policy discussions on labour market resilience, gender inequality and support for families affected by globalisation. The research also demonstrates the value of linked household-level data in capturing impacts that are not visible in worker-only studies.

Data used

Office for National Statistics, released 2021, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, ONS Longitudinal Study

Office for National Statistics, released 2021, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Business Structure Database

Office for National Statistics, released 2021, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Birth Registration Data

Additional data sources used: UN Comtrade trade data 

Read more about the research.