Impact of AI on graduate employment

FOI reference: FOI-2026-3465  

You asked

I am researching AI's impact on the UK labour market since 2020, with a specific focus on graduate employment.  

I would like to make an FOI request asking these main questions please: 

1. What data, if any, does the ONS currently collect on entry-level job vacancy trends broken down by occupation or sector? 
2. Does the ONS track the relationship between AI adoption rates and changes in graduate employment outcomes? 
3. Can you provide an update to the 2011-2017 probability of automation by job sector analysis? 
4. Has the ONS commissioned or collaborated on any research into AI's impact on the UK labour market since 2020? 
5. What published ONS datasets would you direct a researcher to if they were investigating changes in entry-level employment between 2019 and present day?

We said

Thank you for your request. 

1.  Our headline vacancies estimates are derived from the ONS Vacancy Survey. The survey asks a single question: how many job vacancies does a business have in total (on a specified date) for which they were actively seeking recruits from outside their organisation. Therefore, we do not have any additional information on how many vacancies are entry-level and which occupations employers are recruiting for. However, we do link survey responses to our business register to obtain sector information, which is published in VACS02: Vacancies by industry.

We have also published a dataset on labour demand volumes by experience and occupation. This uses online job advertisements data and provides an indication of occupational demand by stated minimum years of experience. While it is not a direct measure of “entry-level” vacancies, it can offer relevant insight into entry-level demand by identifying adverts requiring little or no prior experience, broken down by occupation. 

2. We do not track the relationship between AI adoption rates and changes in graduate employment outcomes. 

3. In regards to an update to the 2011 to 2017 probability of automation by job sector analysis, please see a previous FOI response on this matter. 

4. We are collaborating with both UK and international departments to ensure a coherent approach to understanding the impact of AI on the UK labour market. This work is ongoing to ensure ONS statistics remain relevant.

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) has collected some information on AI and employment.   

We ask businesses on BICS the following questions: 

• What roles, if any, have been most impacted by artificial intelligence technologies your business has adopted? 
• What has been your business's approach to integrating artificial intelligence technology related skills into your workforce? 
• What impact, if any, have artificial intelligence technologies had on your business's overall workforce headcount?

This was collected as part of our most recent "wave" and published on 2 April. 

5. While we do not conduct the analysis ourselves, the Department for Education (DfE) do conduct own analysis, using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, relating to Graduate labour market statistics. Because it is produced by DfE, it only covers England, but this publication may give you some useful insight into this area of the labour market. 

The LFS version of this release has now been discontinued, but has been replaced with an alternatively sourced release on Graduate and Postgraduate Outcomes. 

The contacts associated with that release may also have further insight to help you with your research. 

The Labour Force Survey datasets themselves, previously used by DfE for their release, are available through the UK data archive, which you may be able to seek access to. 

For more information on AI affecting employment, please see a previous FOI response on this topic.