You asked

Please provide:

The latest projection of deaths in England for the year July 2019-June 2020 from the most recent official projections before COVID-19.

The actual number of registered deaths in England over that period.

The number of excess deaths calculated as actual deaths minus projected deaths.

The number of those registered deaths where COVID-19 was involved according to the death certificate.

We said

Thank you for your enquiry.

Please see the following link to our National population mortality projections for 2019. This is the latest publication available.

Using the following publication, Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales, please see the following figures for deaths registered between July 2019 and June 2020:

  • July to December 2019 - 243,510 deaths
  • January to June 2020 - 313,161 deaths
  • Total for this period - 556,671 deaths

This data is in provisional format as they are based on actual death registrations but may be an underestimated due to late registrations i.e. deaths that had occurred but had not yet been registered at the time of publication.  At present, this is all the monthly death registration data available.  Special extracts and tabulations of mortality data for England and Wales are also available to order (subject to legal frameworks, disclosure control, resources and agreements of costs, where appropriate).

Finalised annual death registrations for 2019 are available in the Deaths Registered Series and NOMIS webservice.

The number of deaths due to COVID-19 can be found in the following publication: Provisional weekly deaths.

Deaths 'due to' COVID-19 refers to where it was recorded as the underlying cause of death.  Deaths 'involving' COVID-19 refers to deaths where it was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, either as underlying cause or contributory factor.

Deaths involving and due to COVID-19, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020

Further analysis of deaths due to and involving COVID-19 are available in our Monthly mortality analysis publication.  This is separate from the monthly publication mentioned above and includes provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) and leading causes of death.

If you have any questions regarding the data provided, please contact