FOI REF: FOI/2022/4578
You asked
"We're changing the way we produce population & migration statistics to include all available data, including upcoming #Census2021 results. As part of this, we're discontinuing our Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality series. Learn more http://ow.ly/BJpq50Lmskj"
Firstly, I would like to know why, exactly you decided to omit the results from this decades ONS results. Secondly, I would like to know who exactly was in charge of this ridiculous decision. The public have a right to know who is behind the decision making for what is considered by most people THE single most important piece of data that is released by the ONS. The reason you give on the website doesn't exactly suffice. Why not just release the data as normal this year then change it for the years coming forward. Population and Migration statistics are one of, if not THE most important statistic among the range of data that is revealed by the ONS. The knowledge of the data is literally in the public good, a phrase that is slapped across your twitter banner.
We said
Thank you for your query about the statement we published on 27 October 2022 and an accompanying tweet which explains the decision to discontinue our Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality series.
- It is not the case that we decided against publishing the migration statistics from Census 2021. The first line of the statement makes this clear: "On 2 November 2022, the first migration statistics from the Census 2021 for England and Wales will be published." We can confirm that publication went ahead on the date and link specified.
- In the statement, we explained the decision to discontinue our Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality series, which is based on our Annual Population Survey (APS), not Census 2021.
- We explained that the reason for this decision is that the administrative data used to weight the non-UK born population within the APS only provides information up to June 2021 due to an underlying data issue with the HMRC Migrant Worker Scan (MWS) data linked to Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
- This means that population growth for non-UK born and non-British nationals from the APS beyond June 2021 will not represent real changes and it would give an artificial measure of the non-UK population.
- The decision to discontinue the series using APS data was not taken lightly, but because we were no longer able to provide statistics based on these data which were sufficiently robust to meet National Statistic standards. This decision was endorsed by the Office for Statistical Regulation and Statistics Head of Profession.
- To provide the best measure we can with available data sources, on Thursday 24 November we published a measure of the non-UK population, for England and Wales, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2022.
- This rolls forward Census Day 2021 data for that population with net migration and deaths.
- Given that we are transforming the way we produce population and migration statistics to make best use of all available data, we are reviewing the best methods to produce estimates of the UK population.
- We plan to produce provisional measures of the non-UK population, depending on user needs and working closely with colleagues in NRS National Records of Scotland | Preserving the past, Recording the present, Informing the future (nrscotland.gov.uk), NISRA Home | Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (nisra.gov.uk) and other government departments next year.
- We will provide an update on this in early 2023.